Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of delivering alpha-generating investment ideas through a structured and evidence-based approach [1] - The investment strategy involves a generalist approach, analyzing and investing in various sectors with perceived alpha potential compared to the S&P 500 [1] - The typical holding period for investments ranges from a few quarters to multiple years, indicating a long-term investment perspective [1] Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in CLS shares, indicating confidence in the stock's performance [2] - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and is not influenced by any compensation from companies mentioned [2] - There is no business relationship with any company whose stock is discussed, ensuring an independent viewpoint [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $133.02 based on a 20X PE for 2026 [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of ASIC servers and Ethernet switches, benefiting from the growth in AI inference demand, particularly from major cloud service providers in North America [2][3]. - The company is expected to recover from a short-term decline in server revenue due to Google's TPU product transition, with anticipated growth resuming in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The company is actively expanding its customer base for ASIC servers, having become a supplier for Meta and secured a project with a leading commercial AI company [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Deep Layout in ASIC Servers and Ethernet Switches - The importance of inference computing power is increasing, and the ASIC industry chain is expected to benefit from this trend [14]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the volume growth of ASIC servers and the expansion of its customer base, particularly with Google and Meta [27][31]. - The Ethernet switch business is poised to grow due to the trend of AI Ethernet networking, with increased demand for high-speed switches [32]. 2. Transition from EMS to ODM - The company is shifting from an EMS model to an ODM model, which is expected to enhance customer binding and improve profitability [47]. - The revenue from the hardware platform solutions (ODM) is projected to grow significantly, contributing to overall revenue growth [50][52]. - The company's gross margin and operating profit margin have been steadily increasing due to the growth of its ODM business [52]. 3. ASIC Industry and Company Alpha - The company is well-positioned in the ASIC server and Ethernet ODM switch market, benefiting from industry trends and new customer acquisitions [3][4]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to grow significantly over the next few years, with expected profits of $593 million, $765 million, and $871 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]. - The company is expected to gain market share as it expands its customer base and increases the complexity of its products [31]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from $7.96 billion in 2023 to $15.89 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.1% [8]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from $467 million in 2023 to $1.296 billion in 2027, reflecting strong operational performance [8].

Group 1 - Celestica Inc. is a Toronto-based electronics manufacturer that has positioned itself as a significant player in current technology and industrial trends [1] - The company is recognized as an "AWS Certified AI Practitioner Early Adopter," indicating its involvement in advanced AI technologies [1] - Celestica's expertise includes the buildout, deployment, and maintenance of AI tools and applications, showcasing its deep knowledge in generative AI systems [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of machine learning algorithms, model training, and deployment in Celestica's operations [1] - The company is actively pursuing advanced AWS machine learning certifications to enhance its expertise in AI and machine learning [1] - Celestica's strategic positioning in the technology sector suggests potential growth opportunities as it aligns with industry trends [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Celestica (CLS) has decreased by approximately 9%, despite the strengthening of its fundamentals [1] - The current earnings season for big tech companies is ongoing, which may impact market sentiment towards Celestica [1] Group 2 - The article reflects a bullish thesis on Celestica, indicating a potential misalignment between stock performance and company fundamentals [1]

Core Insights - Pythia Research specializes in identifying multi-bagger stocks, particularly within the technology sector, utilizing a blend of financial analysis, behavioral finance, psychology, social sciences, and alternative metrics to evaluate companies with high conviction and asymmetric risk-reward potential [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company employs a multidisciplinary strategy to uncover breakout opportunities before they gain mainstream attention, focusing on market sentiment and emerging trends [1] - Pythia Research emphasizes the importance of understanding investor behavior, including biases such as herd mentality and recency bias, which can create persistent inefficiencies in the market [1] - The firm analyzes psychological noise rather than avoiding it, assessing whether market volatility is driven by emotion or fundamentals [1] Group 2: Opportunity Identification - The research process includes identifying disconnects where belief lags behind reality, particularly in companies that are redefining their categories or have unconventional growth paths [1] - Key signals for potential exponential growth include sudden shifts in narrative, early social traction, founder-driven vision, and underappreciated momentum in user adoption [1] - Pythia Research focuses on conviction plays with a favorable risk/reward profile, aiming for limited downside and explosive upside [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for the covered companies, indicating an expectation of outperforming the average total return of the stocks in the research analyst's coverage universe [29][31][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights robust capital expenditure (capex) growth among major US Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) such as Meta, Microsoft, and Google, with a combined year-over-year growth of 60% [1]. - The positive outlook for capex investments is supported by raised full-year guidance from Meta and reiterated forecasts from Microsoft and Google, suggesting continued strong investment momentum throughout the year [1][3]. - Despite concerns regarding a slowdown in AI investments and tariff impacts, the report suggests limited near-term effects on capex trajectories for the CSPs [1]. Summary by Company Meta - Meta's capex increased by $7 billion year-over-year for the second consecutive quarter, with a 104% rise year-over-year in Q1 2025, reaching $13.7 billion [3]. - The full-year capex outlook for 2025 has been raised to $64-$72 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 73%, driven by AI investments and core business support [3]. Microsoft - Microsoft reported a capex of $21.4 billion for Q3 2025, marking a 53% increase year-over-year, despite a 5% quarter-over-quarter decline [3]. - The company maintains a double-digit growth outlook for fiscal 2H25, with expected year-over-year growth of over 10% for Q4 2025 [3]. Google - Google's capex for Q1 2025 rose by 20% quarter-over-quarter and 43% year-over-year, totaling $17.2 billion, primarily due to infrastructure investments [3]. - The full-year capex outlook for 2025 is reiterated at $75 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of over 40% [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Celestica's (CLS) strong Q4 2024 results led to a slight downgrade in rating from Strong Buy to Buy due to rapid price increase and anticipated negative seasonality [1] - Bram de Haas, with 15 years of investing experience and over 5 years managing a Euro hedge fund, is highlighted for his risk management skills and ability to identify lucrative investments [1]

Group 1 - Celestica is positioned as a key player in the AI and cloud infrastructure sectors, benefiting from the increasing demand from hyperscalers [1] - The company serves as a profit-leveraged enabler for backbone systems, indicating its critical role in supporting the growth of these technologies [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy of the analyst focuses on long-term fundamentals and valuation discipline, particularly in technology, semiconductors, AI, and energy sectors [1] - The analyst manages a long-only, unleveraged portfolio aimed at capital preservation and capturing asymmetric upside during market dislocations [1] - The Nasdaq High-Alpha Black Swan Portfolio is highlighted as a private strategy designed for resilience and long-term outperformance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Celestica (CLS) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [3][5]. - Institutional investors often adjust their valuations based on earnings estimates, leading to significant stock price movements when estimates are revised [3]. Celestica's Earnings Outlook - Celestica is projected to earn $5.05 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 30.2% [7]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celestica has risen by 1.7%, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [7]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks, which have averaged a +25% annual return since 1988 [6]. - The upgrade of Celestica to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [9].

Core Insights - Celestica Inc. (CLS) has significantly outperformed the industry and peers, with a stock price increase of 98.8% over the past year compared to the industry's 36.4% growth [1] - The company has a strong focus on AI applications, leveraging over 25 years of manufacturing experience to provide advanced data storage and networking solutions [2] Performance and Growth - The ongoing generative AI boom has driven demand for Celestica's AI/ML compute and networking products, particularly from hyperscale customers [3] - Celestica's high-performance 800G network switches and scalable storage solutions are essential for AI applications, enhancing its market position [3] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have increased by 5.7% to $5.05, and for 2026 by 2.4% to $6.07, indicating positive growth expectations [6] Financial Guidance - The company has raised its revenue guidance for 2025 to $10.85 billion from $10.7 billion, with an expected non-GAAP operating margin of 7.2% [7] - Non-GAAP adjusted earnings are projected to be $5 per share, up from a previous estimate of $4.75 [7] Challenges and Competition - Despite strong growth, Celestica faces high operating expenses due to sophisticated product development, which has impacted margins [8] - The company competes with major players like Foxconn, Jabil, and Flex, as well as smaller regional firms, in a highly cyclical semiconductor industry [9] - Persistent weakness in the ATS segment and elevated inventory levels in industrial markets are hindering net sales growth [9] Future Outlook - Management anticipates demand stabilization in the first half of 2025, although macroeconomic challenges remain a concern [12] - As production scales and costs decrease, the potential applications for silicon photonics are expected to expand across various industries [13] - The stock has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 7.4% and a favorable Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting potential for further appreciation [14]