Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International predicts that the humanoid robot industry in China will experience significant growth by 2026 due to advancements in AI model capabilities, hardware technology maturity, cost reductions, and accelerated application scenarios, along with a surge in orders in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Recommended Companies - Recommended humanoid robot manufacturers include UBTECH Robotics (09880), Yujin Robot (02432), and Geek+ (02590) [1] - Cross-industry collaborative companies recommended are Tesla (TSLA.US) and Xpeng Motors (09868) [1] - Ecological companies to watch include Xiaomi Group (01810) and Midea Group (00300) [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Insights - The supply chain outlook is positive, focusing on technology convergence, with a favorable view on Minth Group (00425) in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Companies expanding from intelligent driving to robotics, such as Hesai Technology (02525) and Horizon Robotics (09660), are also highlighted as promising [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The humanoid robot industry in China is characterized by rapid incremental advancements and a full-chain explosion, particularly with the trend of large-scale production by overseas leaders by the end of the year [1] - Catalysts for growth include the release of Tesla's V3 and the listing of Yushu Technology, along with a significant number of new robot companies expected to go public in the Hong Kong market this year [1]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile in February, with indices likely to perform better post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels [1][2] - The lack of clear catalysts before the Spring Festival is anticipated to reduce market activity, while policy catalysts are expected to accelerate after the holiday due to the upcoming Two Sessions [2] Fundamental Analysis - The period of January to February is characterized as a data vacuum, with market focus on marginal improvements in performance driven by industrial changes [2] - Key sectors include cyclical price increases, particularly in semiconductors and AI-related products, which are expected to maintain a positive trend [2][5] Liquidity and Capital Supply - February is projected to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital expected to flow in before the holiday and financing likely to rebound afterward [4] - The central bank is expected to maintain a stable liquidity environment through targeted measures, despite some liquidity tightening from government bond issuances [4] Industry Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cyclical and technology sectors, with increased attention on discretionary consumption as the Spring Festival approaches [3][6] - Recommended sectors include electronics (semiconductors), media (advertising, gaming, film), machinery (automation, engineering), power equipment (batteries, grid equipment, photovoltaic), basic chemicals, and social services [3][6] Performance Trends - In January, high-performing sectors included certain resource products, public utilities, and information technology, with notable price increases in industrial metals and chemicals [6] - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for certain sectors, particularly in resource products and TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) driven by AI [5][6]

转自：中国证券报·中证网 中证报中证网讯（记者 齐金钊）日前，2025招商证券"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛落下帷幕。本届大赛于2025 年4月28日正式启幕，招商证券携手易方达基金、招商基金、博时基金、摩根基金、银华基金、汇添富 基金、华夏基金、国泰基金、广发基金、鹏华基金十大基金公司（排名不分先后），共同为投资者打造 一个集学习、交流、成长于一体的投教平台。据统计，本届大赛浏览量超880万人次，活跃度较上届大 赛增长超六成，实现显著增长。 据悉，为了让更多投资者领略ETF投资的魅力，自2023年起，招商证券已连续三年举办"招财杯"ETF实 盘大赛，累计吸引近27万名选手报名参赛，投教及赛事相关内容累计触达投资者超过千万人次，逐步构 建起良性循环的ETF投资生态圈。 数据显示，2025年"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛报名人数近八万。从重仓板块来看，排名居前的选手们主要在 宽基ETF与生物医药、通信设备、半导体芯片等行业主题ETF中灵活轮动，体现了对市场热点的关注与 配置调整。 招商证券表示，大赛的圆满收官，既是过往成果的总结，更是投资者ETF投资实践的新起点。 招商证 券将始终秉承"用心服务客户，专业创造价值"的核心理 ...

格隆汇1月31日｜招商证券在最新的一份研究报告中也指出，该团队近期调研了河南、安徽、四川等多 地白酒渠道，总需求仍在下滑（双位数下滑），但符合此前预期。分场景看，商务宴请以小局为主、中 高端餐饮仍较萧条，送礼需求有部分回补。品牌侧分化明显，茅台动销表现优异，春节备货需求前置， 其他品牌承压。 新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 ...

Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand relationship for Moutai prices remains unchanged in the short term, with low inventory among distributors and tight supply supporting a potential price increase [1] Short-term Analysis - Moutai's allocation quotas are nearly fulfilled before the year-end, leading to low distributor inventory levels [1] - Demand is expected to grow year-on-year at a double-digit rate, providing support for price increases [1] Long-term Perspective - Currently, the industry is at the bottom of the economic cycle, facing multiple negative constraints such as economic pressure and alcohol bans, which limit demand [1] - The solid bottom of supply-demand balance may lead to the removal of constraints in the future, creating upward price momentum and driving valuation and performance improvements [1]

中国证券业协会数据显示，证券业从业人数连续3年下滑，从2022年末35.61万人，减少至2025年末32.78 万人，近3万人离场。从结构来看，"一般证券业务"人员连续两年减少超过2万人。证券经纪人数量更是 每年下滑，8年间（2018年至2025年）累计减少逾6万人。 在此行业背景下，仔细分析招商证券2025年人员数据，一组数据变化格外引人注目：公司一般证券业务 人员从年初的5396人增至年末的6359人，实现净增963人，而证券经纪人同期从843人锐减至仅13人。这 一增一减之间，正是从业者结构从传统"通道+人海"模式向"专业+科技"模式的升级。 数据来源：choice 经纪人时代落幕：从843人到13人 证券经纪人数量从年初843人锐减至年末仅13人，成为招商证券2025年最显著的人员变动。而中信证 券、中金公司、国信证券等机构已实现经纪人全面清零，这一现象标志着以经纪人拉新、获取交易佣金 为核心的传统展业模式，在证券行业正逐步退出历史舞台。 这一变化的背后，是多重因素共同作用的结果：监管政策引导行业向专业化转型、客户需求从单一交易 向综合财富管理升级、数字技术替代传统销售渠道、以及券商盈利模式从通道业务 ...

该行认为公司营收目前主要依赖FOMO营销抢购，即消费者害怕错过机会、折扣或热门产品的心理，而 非真正奢侈品同行所具备的内生性销量增长。同时，公司盈利质量亦正在恶化。该行表示，公司今年门 店扩张规划相对保守，焦点从门店扩张转向效率提升，限制了其在国内市场的实体规模扩张空间。另 外，北京SKP旗舰店年销售额已达30亿元人民币，依赖销量驱动的同店增长上限正在不断下降。公司当 前的增长主要倚赖提价，而提价举措可能在执行后带来更长、更深的"需求真空期"。再者，管理层策略 性地将综合毛利率锚定在约40%以平衡需求，意味着毛利率扩张已没有超预期空间，盈利完全取决于销 量周转，使执行风险不断上升。 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券国际发布研报称，预期老铺黄金(06181)2026年将出现转折，收入增长将由 2025年的220%大幅回落至2026年预期的约30%。该行首予老铺黄金"减持"评级，目标价825.5港元，认 为2026年18倍市盈率过高，一旦黄金情绪降温，都将带来明显不对称的下行风险，现予16倍市盈率估 值。 ...

该行认为公司营收目前主要依赖FOMO营销抢购，即消费者害怕错过机会、折扣或热门产品的心理，而 非真正奢侈品同行所具备的内生性销量增长。同时，公司盈利质量亦正在恶化。该行表示，公司今年门 店扩张规划相对保守，焦点从门店扩张转向效率提升，限制了其在国内市场的实体规模扩张空间。另 外，北京SKP旗舰店年销售额已达30亿元人民币，依赖销量驱动的同店增长上限正在不断下降。公司当 前的增长主要倚赖提价，而提价举措可能在执行后带来更长、更深的"需求真空期"。再者，管理层策略 性地将综合毛利率锚定在约40%以平衡需求，意味着毛利率扩张已没有超预期空间，盈利完全取决于销 量周转，使执行风险不断上升。 招商证券国际发布研报称，预期老铺黄金(06181)2026年将出现转折，收入增长将由2025年的220%大幅 回落至2026年预期的约30%。该行首予老铺黄金"减持"评级，目标价825.5港元，认为2026年18倍市盈率 过高，一旦黄金情绪降温，都将带来明显不对称的下行风险，现予16倍市盈率估值。 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points in 2025, leading to significant inflows into ETFs, which are becoming essential tools for asset allocation and capturing structural opportunities [2] - The ETF market in China saw a net inflow of approximately 1.18 trillion yuan in 2025, with the number of ETFs listed on domestic exchanges increasing to 1402 and total market size growing from 3.7 trillion yuan to 6.0 trillion yuan, representing over 60% growth since the beginning of the year [2] Group 1: ETF Market Growth - The ETF product line is diversifying, offering investors a multi-layered toolbox to capture market opportunities, ranging from broad indices to niche sectors and cross-border allocations [3] - The "Zhaocai Cup" ETF competition, held annually since 2023, has attracted nearly 270,000 participants, enhancing investor education and engagement, and fostering a positive ETF investment ecosystem [4] Group 2: Competition and Participation - The 2025 "Zhaocai Cup" ETF competition commenced on April 28, with participation from ten major fund companies, creating a platform for learning, exchange, and growth for investors [4] - The competition saw over 8.8 million views, with engagement increasing by over 60% compared to the previous year, indicating a significant rise in interest [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - The A-share market showed strong performance in 2025, with major indices experiencing expanded gains, particularly in the technology growth sector, including AI, semiconductors, robotics, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - Participants in the competition demonstrated strong performance by focusing on broad-based ETFs and sector-specific themes such as biomedicine, communication equipment, and semiconductor ETFs, reflecting their attention to market hotspots [6] Group 4: Investor Education and Support - The competition upgraded its educational offerings, providing comprehensive ETF knowledge through the "ETF Classroom," which attracted over 1.41 million participants, showcasing effective educational outreach [8] - Collaborative efforts with ten fund companies resulted in the launch of "Hot Topics" and "Sector Topics," offering insights into market dynamics and investment opportunities, with 45 live sessions attracting nearly 4.6 million views [9][10] Group 5: Professional Guidance - Wealth advisors from the organizing company actively participated in the competition, providing professional support and insights, with a dedicated leaderboard for advisors to track performance [11] - Advisors shared diverse investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of liquidity management and balanced portfolio approaches, which provided participants with varied perspectives for decision-making [11] Group 6: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The successful conclusion of the "Zhaocai Cup" ETF competition marks a new starting point for investors in ETF practices, with the organizing company committed to ongoing investor education and service [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Meta's performance in Q4 2025 and guidance for Q1 2023 exceeded expectations due to growth in AI and user engagement [1] - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates a positive outlook for Meta, highlighting its leading position in social media and AI, along with attractive valuation compared to other large tech companies [1] - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 and the full year are projected to be $22.1 billion and $72.2 billion respectively, showing a continuous increase that raises concerns about insufficient AI progress in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Despite concerns over high capital expenditures, Meta's stock rebound and strong performance reflect its dominant position in the social media sector [1] - The combination of high Daily Active Users (DAP) with AI recommendations and content optimization is expected to support revenue growth, which will be sufficient to cover high capital expenditures and achieve recovery [1]