ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 12:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsAndy O'Brien - CFO and EVP of Strategy and CommercialDevin McDermott - Managing Director and Head of North American Integrated Oil and Exploration & Production ResearchGuy Baber - VP of Investor RelationsJames West - Managing Director and Head of Energy & PowerKevin McCurdy - Managing DirectorKirk Johnson - EVP of Global Operations and Technical FunctionsNeil Singhvi Mehta - Head of Americas Natural Resources E ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, ConocoPhillips produced 2,320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, consistent with production guidance [12] - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.02, with cash from operations (CFO) amounting to $4.3 billion [12] - Capital expenditures for the year totaled $12.6 billion, with $3 billion spent in the fourth quarter [12] - The company returned $9 billion to shareholders in 2025, representing 45% of CFO [12][13] - Cash and short-term investments increased to $7.4 billion, with net debt reduced by nearly $2 billion [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production grew by 2.5% in 2025, with significant reductions in capital and operating costs [7] - The company improved drilling and completion efficiencies by over 15% in 2025 [16] - The Lower 48 segment is expected to deliver more production for less capital, benefiting from high-quality asset bases [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates a production guidance of 2.23 million to 2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day for 2026 [15] - The cash flow breakeven is expected to decline into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of the decade [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ConocoPhillips aims to achieve a $1 billion reduction in capital spending and operating costs in 2026 while growing production [9] - The company is focused on organic growth rather than mergers and acquisitions, emphasizing its strong resource position [22][23] - Major projects are expected to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, with incremental free cash flow anticipated from 2026 through 2028 [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strong financial position and ability to return capital to shareholders while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet [8][13] - The company is optimistic about the long-term demand for oil and gas, particularly with upcoming LNG projects and the Willow development [63] Other Important Information - The company successfully integrated Marathon Oil, exceeding acquisition case metrics and realizing $1 billion in one-time benefits [8] - The organic reserve replacement ratio was just under 100% for 2025, with a three-year average of 106% [13][87] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Industry consolidation and Conoco's role - Management indicated that the company has completed its major M&A activities and is now focused on organic growth opportunities within its portfolio [22][23] Question: Update on Venezuela and Citgo sale - Management emphasized the priority of recovering owed amounts from Venezuela and noted no changes regarding the Citgo sale [25][26] Question: Evaluation of international opportunities - Management discussed ongoing efforts to improve fiscal conditions in Libya and the potential for new opportunities in Equatorial Guinea [31][33] Question: Alaska exploration program objectives - The exploration program aims to identify resource opportunities that can tie back into existing infrastructure, enhancing production capacity [36][39] Question: Well productivity trends in Lower 48 - Management highlighted strong productivity improvements in the Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford, driven by technology and optimization strategies [42][45] Question: Breakeven trajectory and capital expenditure assumptions - Current breakeven is in the mid-$40s, with expectations to lower it to the low $30s by 2030 as new projects come online [48][52] Question: Free cash flow contributions from LNG projects - Management expects significant contributions from LNG projects in 2027 and 2028, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing [77][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, ConocoPhillips reported a production growth of 2.5% on a pro forma basis, while achieving a return of 45% of cash flow from operations (CFO) to shareholders [4][10] - The company generated $1.02 per share in adjusted earnings and $4.3 billion of CFO in the fourth quarter [10] - Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter were $3 billion, totaling $12.6 billion for the full year [10][12] - Cash balances increased by $1 billion, and net debt was reduced by nearly $2 billion, highlighting a strong financial position [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Lower 48 segment showed improved drilling and completion efficiencies, with a more than 15% increase in 2025 [14] - Production guidance for 2026 is set at 2.23 million to 2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, indicating modest growth [13] - The company expects to continue delivering more production for less capital in the Lower 48, benefiting from high-quality asset bases [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - ConocoPhillips closed over $3 billion in asset sales during 2025, progressing towards a $5 billion divestiture target [11] - The organic reserve replacement ratio for 2025 was just under 100%, with a trailing three-year average of 106% [11][88] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The primary focus for 2026 is to achieve a combined reduction of $1 billion in capital spending and operating costs while growing production [6][12] - The company aims to maintain a top-quartile dividend growth rate, with expectations of free cash flow breakeven declining into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of the decade [6][12] - ConocoPhillips is investing in diverse major projects to enhance free cash flow generation, anticipating a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's resource-rich position amid a maturing US shale industry, emphasizing a focus on organic growth rather than M&A [21][22] - The company is optimistic about the long-term outlook for oil demand, particularly with LNG and Willow projects coming online at a critical time [62] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in its LNG strategy, growing its offtake portfolio to approximately 10 million tons per annum [5] - The four major projects underway are expected to drive substantial free cash flow growth through the end of the decade [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Industry consolidation and Conoco's role - Management indicated that the company has completed its heavy lifting on M&A and is now focused on organic growth opportunities within its portfolio [21][22] Question: Update on Venezuela and Citgo sale - Management reiterated their focus on recovering owed amounts from Venezuela and noted no changes regarding the Citgo sale [25][27] Question: Evaluation of international opportunities - Management discussed ongoing efforts to improve fiscal conditions in Libya and the potential for new opportunities in Equatorial Guinea [30][32] Question: Alaska exploration program objectives - The exploration program aims to identify resource opportunities to extend production capacity at Willow and enhance existing infrastructure [35][36] Question: Trends in well productivity in Lower 48 - Management highlighted strong productivity improvements in the Delaware and Eagle Ford basins, driven by technology and optimization strategies [41][43] Question: Breakeven trajectory and capital expenditure assumptions - Current free cash flow breakeven is in the mid-$40s, with expectations to decline to the low $30s by 2030 as new projects come online [45][51] Question: Free cash flow contribution from LNG projects - Management expects $1 billion annual free cash flow improvement from 2026 to 2028, with significant contributions from LNG projects [76][78]

ConocoPhillips 4Q25 Earnings Conference Call Feb. 5, 2026 Cautionary Statement This presentation contains fouvarol-boshing statements as odefined under the fected securities aws: Forward-looking statements redate to findusling, without limitation, st strateen, budoets, projected revenues, costs and plans, colore coreations and other aspects of our operations and other aspects of our operations or operations or operatio continus, " could," "effort" "esfinate; " expect," "qoulance;" inney," "objective," outco ...

Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial Jobless Claims reached 231K, exceeding expectations of 212K and the previous week's 209K, marking the highest level of 2026 so far [2] - Continuing Claims increased to 1.844 million from a revised 1.819 million the prior week, still favorable compared to the past six months where it ranged between 1.93 and 1.97 million [3] Group 2: Earnings Reports - Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMY) reported earnings of $1.26 per share, beating the Zacks consensus of $1.15, resulting in a 9.57% earnings beat, with shares up 1.7% [4] - ConocoPhillips (COP) missed earnings estimates by 6 cents, reporting $1.02 per share, leading to a 5.6% earnings miss and a 3.3% drop in shares [5] - Ralph Lauren (RL) posted earnings of $6.22 per share, surpassing expectations of $5.80 with a 7.2% positive surprise, although shares fell 6.5% due to declining annualized revenue growth [6] - Tapestry (TPR) reported earnings of $2.69 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus of $2.20, with shares up 5.9% [7] - Other notable earnings beats included Hershey's (HSY) at +21.28% and ArcelorMittal (MT) at +53.57%, while MasterCraft Boat (MCFT) had the largest beat at +81.25%, despite a revenue miss leading to a 1.2% drop in shares [8]

Key Takeaways ConocoPhillips reported Q4 EPS of $1.02, down from a year ago, while revenues of $14.2B beat estimates.COP's earnings were pressured by lower realized prices, partially offset by higher oil-equivalent output.COP expects 2026 production of 2.33-2.36 MMBOED and plans to return about 45% of operating cash flow.ConocoPhillips (COP) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08. The bottom line decreased from the prior-year lev ...

ConocoPhillips reported disappointing fourth-quarter results on February 5, 2026, missing both earnings and revenue estimates as lower oil prices overshadowed production gains from the Marathon Oil acquisition. ...

ConocoPhillips reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.4 billion ($1.17/share) versus $2.3 billion ($1.90/share) a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of $1.3 billion ($1.02/share) versus $2.4 billion ($1.98/share). For full-year 2025, earnings were $8.0 billion ($6.35/share), down from $9.2 billion ($7.81/share) in 2024; adjusted earnings came in at $7.7 billion ($6.16/share). The company attributed the quarter’s year-over-year earnings pressure primarily to lower prices, partly offset by higher volum ...

The oil company's earnings fell in the fourth quarter, and so did the stock Thursday. ...

Core Insights - ConocoPhillips' fourth-quarter earnings decreased due to lower prices, although this was slightly mitigated by an increase in production [1] Financial Performance - The decline in earnings was primarily attributed to lower prices in the market [1] - Higher production levels provided a partial offset to the earnings drop [1]