Energy is a big topic nowadays. As a matter of fact, it always has been, and it will become a larger and larger need as many economies develop faster and faster, and the AI revolution unfolds. I have written thatI’m a long-term investor focused on U.S. and European equities, with a dual emphasis on undervalued growth stocks and high-quality dividend growers. Through years of experience, I’ve learned that sustained profitability—evident in strong margins, stable and expanding free cash flow, and high returns ...

O’Brien said ConocoPhillips returned $2.1 billion to shareholders in the fourth quarter, including “just over $1 billion” in buybacks and $1 billion in ordinary dividends. Full-year returns totaled $9.0 billion, which management said equaled 45% of CFO and was in line with the company’s framework.Chief Financial Officer Andy O’Brien reported fourth-quarter production of 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, “consistent with the midpoint” of guidance. The company generated adjusted earnings of $1.0 ...

ConocoPhillips has reported net income of $1.4bn, or $1.17 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025), down by 39% from $2.3bn, or $1.90 per share, in the same period the previous year. On an adjusted basis, earnings for Q4 2025 were $1.3bn, or $1.02 per share, a 46% drop from adjusted earnings of $2.4bn – or $1.98 per share – recorded in Q4 2024. For the full year 2025, ConocoPhillips posted net income of $8bn, equating to $6.35 per share. This is a 13% decrease from the previous year's figure ...

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Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips is a significant player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and natural gas exploration and production, with a positive outlook despite recent earnings challenges [1][2][5] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, ConocoPhillips reported revenues of $14.2 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.9 billion [2][5] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2025 was $1.02, which fell short of the expected $1.08 and represented a decline from the previous year's EPS of $1.98 [2][5] Production and Future Outlook - The company anticipates a production range of 2.33 to 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED) for 2026 [3] - ConocoPhillips plans to return approximately 45% of its operating cash flow to investors, indicating potential for future growth [3][5] Stock Performance - The current stock price of ConocoPhillips is $104.52, reflecting a decrease of 2.85% or $3.07 [4] - The stock has traded between $103.15 and $108.43 today, with the highest price over the past year being $108.43 and the lowest at $79.88 [4] - The market capitalization of ConocoPhillips is approximately $130.54 billion, with a trading volume of 5,493,591 shares on the NYSE [4]

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips reported fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of analyst expectations, resulting in a more than 3% decline in share price during intra-day trading [1]. Financial Performance - The company posted earnings per share of $1.02, missing Wall Street estimates of $1.18 [2]. - Production for the quarter was 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of 137 thousand barrels per day year-over-year. However, after adjusting for acquisitions and asset divestitures, production declined by 63 thousand barrels per day, or 2.6%, compared to the prior-year period [2]. - Cash flow from operations for the quarter was $4.3 billion [2]. Future Outlook - ConocoPhillips reiterated its 2026 capital spending plan of approximately $12 billion and maintained its adjusted operating cost outlook of $10.2 billion, consistent with prior guidance [3]. - For 2026, the company forecasts production between 2.33 and 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. First-quarter output is expected to range from 2.30 to 2.34 million barrels per day, factoring in weather-related downtime [3].

Yet while these are significant achievements, not stopping there. We will build on this success. Turning to 2026, our primary focus is on delivering a $1 billion combined reduction across our capital spending and operating costs while growing our production on an underlying basis. On shareholder returns, we once again expect to return about 45% of our CFO to shareholders while continuing to grow our base dividend at a top quarterly S&P 500 rate. Top quartile dividend growth is sustainable, as we expect our ...

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 12:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsAndy O'Brien - CFO and EVP of Strategy and CommercialDevin McDermott - Managing Director and Head of North American Integrated Oil and Exploration & Production ResearchGuy Baber - VP of Investor RelationsJames West - Managing Director and Head of Energy & PowerKevin McCurdy - Managing DirectorKirk Johnson - EVP of Global Operations and Technical FunctionsNeil Singhvi Mehta - Head of Americas Natural Resources E ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, ConocoPhillips produced 2,320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, consistent with production guidance [12] - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.02, with cash from operations (CFO) amounting to $4.3 billion [12] - Capital expenditures for the year totaled $12.6 billion, with $3 billion spent in the fourth quarter [12] - The company returned $9 billion to shareholders in 2025, representing 45% of CFO [12][13] - Cash and short-term investments increased to $7.4 billion, with net debt reduced by nearly $2 billion [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production grew by 2.5% in 2025, with significant reductions in capital and operating costs [7] - The company improved drilling and completion efficiencies by over 15% in 2025 [16] - The Lower 48 segment is expected to deliver more production for less capital, benefiting from high-quality asset bases [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates a production guidance of 2.23 million to 2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day for 2026 [15] - The cash flow breakeven is expected to decline into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of the decade [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ConocoPhillips aims to achieve a $1 billion reduction in capital spending and operating costs in 2026 while growing production [9] - The company is focused on organic growth rather than mergers and acquisitions, emphasizing its strong resource position [22][23] - Major projects are expected to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, with incremental free cash flow anticipated from 2026 through 2028 [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strong financial position and ability to return capital to shareholders while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet [8][13] - The company is optimistic about the long-term demand for oil and gas, particularly with upcoming LNG projects and the Willow development [63] Other Important Information - The company successfully integrated Marathon Oil, exceeding acquisition case metrics and realizing $1 billion in one-time benefits [8] - The organic reserve replacement ratio was just under 100% for 2025, with a three-year average of 106% [13][87] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Industry consolidation and Conoco's role - Management indicated that the company has completed its major M&A activities and is now focused on organic growth opportunities within its portfolio [22][23] Question: Update on Venezuela and Citgo sale - Management emphasized the priority of recovering owed amounts from Venezuela and noted no changes regarding the Citgo sale [25][26] Question: Evaluation of international opportunities - Management discussed ongoing efforts to improve fiscal conditions in Libya and the potential for new opportunities in Equatorial Guinea [31][33] Question: Alaska exploration program objectives - The exploration program aims to identify resource opportunities that can tie back into existing infrastructure, enhancing production capacity [36][39] Question: Well productivity trends in Lower 48 - Management highlighted strong productivity improvements in the Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford, driven by technology and optimization strategies [42][45] Question: Breakeven trajectory and capital expenditure assumptions - Current breakeven is in the mid-$40s, with expectations to lower it to the low $30s by 2030 as new projects come online [48][52] Question: Free cash flow contributions from LNG projects - Management expects significant contributions from LNG projects in 2027 and 2028, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing [77][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, ConocoPhillips reported a production growth of 2.5% on a pro forma basis, while achieving a return of 45% of cash flow from operations (CFO) to shareholders [4][10] - The company generated $1.02 per share in adjusted earnings and $4.3 billion of CFO in the fourth quarter [10] - Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter were $3 billion, totaling $12.6 billion for the full year [10][12] - Cash balances increased by $1 billion, and net debt was reduced by nearly $2 billion, highlighting a strong financial position [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Lower 48 segment showed improved drilling and completion efficiencies, with a more than 15% increase in 2025 [14] - Production guidance for 2026 is set at 2.23 million to 2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, indicating modest growth [13] - The company expects to continue delivering more production for less capital in the Lower 48, benefiting from high-quality asset bases [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - ConocoPhillips closed over $3 billion in asset sales during 2025, progressing towards a $5 billion divestiture target [11] - The organic reserve replacement ratio for 2025 was just under 100%, with a trailing three-year average of 106% [11][88] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The primary focus for 2026 is to achieve a combined reduction of $1 billion in capital spending and operating costs while growing production [6][12] - The company aims to maintain a top-quartile dividend growth rate, with expectations of free cash flow breakeven declining into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of the decade [6][12] - ConocoPhillips is investing in diverse major projects to enhance free cash flow generation, anticipating a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's resource-rich position amid a maturing US shale industry, emphasizing a focus on organic growth rather than M&A [21][22] - The company is optimistic about the long-term outlook for oil demand, particularly with LNG and Willow projects coming online at a critical time [62] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in its LNG strategy, growing its offtake portfolio to approximately 10 million tons per annum [5] - The four major projects underway are expected to drive substantial free cash flow growth through the end of the decade [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Industry consolidation and Conoco's role - Management indicated that the company has completed its heavy lifting on M&A and is now focused on organic growth opportunities within its portfolio [21][22] Question: Update on Venezuela and Citgo sale - Management reiterated their focus on recovering owed amounts from Venezuela and noted no changes regarding the Citgo sale [25][27] Question: Evaluation of international opportunities - Management discussed ongoing efforts to improve fiscal conditions in Libya and the potential for new opportunities in Equatorial Guinea [30][32] Question: Alaska exploration program objectives - The exploration program aims to identify resource opportunities to extend production capacity at Willow and enhance existing infrastructure [35][36] Question: Trends in well productivity in Lower 48 - Management highlighted strong productivity improvements in the Delaware and Eagle Ford basins, driven by technology and optimization strategies [41][43] Question: Breakeven trajectory and capital expenditure assumptions - Current free cash flow breakeven is in the mid-$40s, with expectations to decline to the low $30s by 2030 as new projects come online [45][51] Question: Free cash flow contribution from LNG projects - Management expects $1 billion annual free cash flow improvement from 2026 to 2028, with significant contributions from LNG projects [76][78]