Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 228K, slightly below the estimated 230K, marking a decrease of 13K from the previous week's revised figure of 241K, indicating stability in the labor market [2] - Continuing Claims reached 1.879 million, consistent with trends over the past six months, although the previous week reported 1.916 million, the first print above 1.9 million since November 2021 [3][4] - Q1 U.S. Productivity showed a negative growth of -0.8%, which was 10 basis points lower than expected, following a +1.5% in Q4 2024, marking the first negative print since Q2 2022 [5] - Unit Labor Costs increased by 5.7%, exceeding the expected 5.1%, the highest level since Q3 2020, indicating potential economic challenges [6] Company Earnings - Shopify (SHOP) reported Q1 earnings of 25 cents per share, missing consensus by a penny, while revenues of $2.36 billion exceeded expectations by 1.32%, but shares fell by 7% [7] - ConocoPhillips (COP) surpassed earnings estimates with $2.09 per share, exceeding consensus by 3 cents, and reported revenues of $17.1 billion, outperforming by 3.37% compared to the previous year [8] - Crocs (CROX) reported earnings of $3.00 per share, beating expectations by 19.5%, and revenues of $937.3 million, slightly below year-ago levels, with shares up 4.7% in pre-market trading [9]

Market Overview - Pre-market futures indicate a positive market sentiment with the Dow up 300 points, S&P 500 up 50 points, Nasdaq up 250 points, and Russell 2000 up 25 points, despite less favorable economic reports [1] Employment Data - Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 228K, slightly below the estimated 230K, marking a decrease of 13K from the previous week's revised figure of 241K, indicating stability in the labor market [2] - Continuing Claims reached 1.879 million, consistent with trends over the past six months, although the previous week reported 1.916 million, the first print above 1.9 million since November 2021 [3][4] Productivity and Labor Costs - Q1 U.S. Productivity showed a negative growth of -0.8%, which is 10 basis points lower than expectations, following a +1.5% growth in Q4 2024, marking the first negative print since Q2 2022 [5] - Unit Labor Costs increased by 5.7%, exceeding the expected 5.1%, the highest level since Q3 2020, indicating potential challenges for economic growth [6] Company Earnings Reports - Shopify (SHOP) reported Q1 earnings of $0.25 per share, missing consensus by a penny, while revenues of $2.36 billion exceeded expectations by 1.32%, but shares fell by 7% [7] - ConocoPhillips (COP) surpassed earnings estimates with $2.09 per share and revenues of $17.1 billion, outperforming the previous year's $14.48 billion, leading to a 1.6% increase in shares [8] - Crocs (CROX) reported earnings of $3.00 per share, exceeding expectations by 19.5%, with revenues of $937.3 million slightly below year-ago levels, resulting in a 4.7% increase in shares [9]

Group 1: Financial Performance - ConocoPhillips reported $17.1 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2025, an 18.1% year-over-year increase [1] - The EPS for the same period was $2.09, compared to $2.03 a year ago, indicating a positive trend [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.54 billion by 3.37% [1] Group 2: Key Metrics - Natural gas liquids produced per day totaled 402 million barrels, surpassing the average estimate of 394.51 million barrels [4] - Total production per day was 2,389 million barrels of oil equivalent, compared to the average estimate of 2,363.2 million barrels [4] - Average sales price for natural gas was $5.62, higher than the estimated $5.28 [4] Group 3: Market Performance - Shares of ConocoPhillips returned -4.2% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by 11.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - ConocoPhillips reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.09, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.06 and up from $2.03 in the prior year [1] - Quarterly revenues reached $17.1 billion, an increase from $14.48 billion year-over-year, and also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.54 billion [1] Production - Total production averaged 2,389 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), up from 1,902 MBoe/d in the same quarter last year, and exceeded the estimate of 2,340 MBoe/d [3] - Crude oil production rose to 1,166 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d) from 944 MBbls/d year-over-year, also above the estimate of 1,119 MBbls/d [4] - Natural gas production increased to 4,070 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) from 3,302 MMcf/d in the prior year [4] Realized Prices - The average realized oil equivalent price decreased to $53.34 per barrel from $56.60 a year ago [5] - The average realized crude oil price was $71.65 per barrel, down from $78.64 year-over-year [5] - The average realized natural gas price increased to $5.62 per thousand cubic feet from $5.02 in the prior year [6] Expenses - Total expenses rose to $12.6 billion from $10.7 billion in the same period of 2024, but were below the projection of $12.8 billion [7] - The cost of purchased commodities increased to $6.2 billion from $5.3 billion year-over-year [7] Balance Sheet & Capital Spending - As of March 31, 2025, ConocoPhillips had $6.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with total long-term debt of $23.2 billion and short-term debt of $608 million [8] - Capital expenditure and investments totaled $3.38 billion, with net cash provided by operating activities at $6.1 billion [8] Guidance - For Q2 2025, production is expected to be in the range of 2.34-2.38 MBoe/d, with full-year production guidance unchanged at 2.34-2.38 MBoe/d [10] - Full-year capital expenditure guidance has been lowered to $12.3-$12.6 billion from approximately $12.9 billion [10]

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips reported quarterly earnings of $2.09 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.06 per share, and showing an increase from $2.03 per share a year ago, indicating a positive earnings surprise of 1.46% [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $17.1 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.37%, and reflecting a year-over-year increase from $14.48 billion [2] - Over the last four quarters, ConocoPhillips has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times and topped revenue estimates twice [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - ConocoPhillips shares have declined approximately 11.6% since the beginning of the year, compared to a 4.3% decline in the S&P 500 [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.57 on revenues of $15.23 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.63 on revenues of $62.73 billion [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry is currently ranked in the top 34% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

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Financial Performance - Total revenues for 2024 reached $56,953 million, with Q4 alone contributing $14,737 million, showing a year-over-year increase[1] - Net income for 2024 was $9,245 million, with Q4 net income at $2,306 million, reflecting a solid performance despite fluctuations in quarterly earnings[1] - The company reported adjusted earnings of $9,224 million for 2024, with Q1 2025 adjusted earnings at $2,679 million, demonstrating consistent profitability[3] - The company reported a basic net income per share of $7.82 for 2024, with Q1 2025 showing a basic net income per share of $2.23[1] - Net income for 2024 was $9,245 million, with a net income of $2,849 million reported in Q1 2025[7] Taxation - The effective income tax rate for the consolidated entity was 32.4% for the full year 2024, with a notable increase to 36.2% in Q1 2025[2] - The effective income tax rate in the Asia Pacific region was 10.9% for the full year 2024, with a slight increase to 17.1% in Q1 2025[4] Costs and Expenses - The total costs and expenses for 2024 were $43,281 million, with Q4 expenses amounting to $11,767 million, highlighting cost management efforts[1] - The company incurred transaction and integration expenses of $37 million in Q1 2025, down from $499 million in Q4 2024, indicating a reduction of 92.6%[5] - The company reported total DD&A expenses of $9,599 million for 2024, with $2,746 million in the first quarter of 2025[9] - Corporate G&A expenses totaled $716 million for the full year 2024, with $110 million in Q1 2025[12] Regional Performance - Earnings from the Lower 48 segment totaled $5,175 million for 2024, with Q1 2025 earnings at $1,790 million, indicating strong regional performance[3] - The Asia Pacific segment generated earnings of $1,724 million for 2024, with Q1 2025 earnings at $311 million, reflecting regional market dynamics[3] - The company reported a total of $93 million in income for the Lower 48 region in Q1 2025, a significant increase from a loss of $4 million in Q4 2024[5] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $124.254 billion in Q1 2025, up from $122.780 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.2%[6] - Total liabilities increased to $59.016 billion in Q1 2025, up from $57.984 billion in Q4 2024, representing a growth of 1.8%[6] - Total equity increased to $65.238 billion in Q1 2025, up from $64.796 billion in Q4 2024, representing a growth of 0.7%[6] - Retained earnings reached $66.721 billion in Q1 2025, an increase from $64.869 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting a growth of 2.8%[6] Production and Capital Expenditures - Total capital expenditures and investments for 2024 amounted to $12,118 million, with $3,378 million in Q1 2025[7] - Total production in MBOED for Q1 2025 reached 2,389, an increase from 1,902 in Q1 2024[8] - Consolidated operations crude oil production in Q1 2025 was 1,153 MBD, up from 944 MBD in Q1 2024[8] - Natural gas production in Q1 2025 was 2,840 MMCFD, an increase from 2,035 MMCFD in Q1 2024[8] - The company’s total production for the first quarter of 2025 is projected to be 1,166 MBD, an increase from 982 MBD in the full year of 2024[10] Cash Flow - The company reported a net cash provided by operating activities of $20,124 million for 2024, with $6,115 million in Q1 2025[7] - The company experienced a net cash used in financing activities of $3,137 million in Q1 2025[7] Exploration Expenses - Total exploration expenses for 2024 are projected to be $355 million, with $117 million incurred in the first quarter[9] - U.S. exploration expenses for 2024 totaled $158 million, with $42 million in the first quarter of 2025[9] - International exploration expenses for 2024 were $197 million, with $75 million in the first quarter of 2025[9] Pricing - Average realized price for total production in Q1 2025 was $53.34 per BOE, compared to $56.60 in Q1 2024[8] - Average realized price for crude oil in total consolidated operations was $76.74 per barrel for the full year 2024, down from $78.67 in Q1 2024[11] - Average realized price for NGL in Q1 2025 was $24.86 per BBL, compared to $23.35 in Q1 2024[8] - Average realized price for NGLs in total consolidated operations was $23.19 per barrel for the full year 2024, increasing to $25.40 per barrel in Q1 2025[11] - The average realized price for bitumen in Canada was $47.92 per barrel for the full year 2024, with a slight decrease to $45.29 per barrel in Q1 2025[11] - The average realized price for natural gas in Norway reached $14.86 per MCF in Q1 2025, compared to $11.11 per MCF for the full year 2024[11] - Natural gas price for total consolidated operations increased to $4.76 per MCF in Q1 2025, compared to $2.61 per MCF for the full year 2024[11] Debt and Interest - Total debt stood at $24.324 billion at the end of Q4 2024, with a debt-to-capital ratio maintained at 27%[12] - Net interest expense for corporate and other was $389 million for the full year 2024, with $131 million in Q1 2025[12] Corporate Earnings - Corporate and other earnings reported a loss of $880 million for the full year 2024, with a loss of $256 million in Q1 2025[12]

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips (COP) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.99 per share, a 2% decline year-over-year, with revenues projected at $16.37 billion, reflecting a 13.1% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 19.1% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Revenues - Sales and other operating revenues' to be $15.85 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 14.4% [5]. - 'Revenues - Equity in earnings of affiliates' is expected to be $325.20 million, reflecting a decline of 22.8% from the prior year [5]. Sales and Operating Revenue Estimates - 'Sales and Other Operating Revenue - Natural gas liquids' is projected to reach $784.31 million, a 15.3% increase year-over-year [6]. - 'Sales and Other Operating Revenue - Natural gas' is expected to be $1.74 billion, indicating a decline of 7.6% from the previous year [6]. - 'Sales and Other Operating Revenues - Canada' is estimated at $993.19 million, a 6.1% increase year-over-year [7]. - 'Sales and Other Operating Revenues - Europe, Middle East and North Africa' is projected to be $1.61 billion, reflecting a 10.8% increase [7]. - 'Sales and Other Operating Revenues - Lower 48' is expected to reach $10.63 billion, indicating a 14.2% increase year-over-year [8]. Production Estimates - 'Natural gas liquids produced per day - Total company' is projected at 394.54 million barrels of oil, up from 279 million barrels in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Natural gas produced per day - Total company' is expected to reach 4,038.14 million cubic feet, compared to 3,302 million cubic feet in the previous year [9]. - 'Total Production per day' is forecasted at 2,362.51 million barrels of oil equivalent, up from 1,902 million barrels in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'Crude oil produced per day - Total company' is estimated at 1,192.17 million barrels of oil, compared to 944 million barrels in the same quarter last year [10]. Price Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Average Sales Price - Natural gas - Total company' is $5.28, compared to $5.02 in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, ConocoPhillips shares have returned +2.3%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +11.5% [12].

ConocoPhillips (COP) is set to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 8, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.99 per share, implying a decline of 2% from the year-ago reported number. Two analysts revised the estimate upward in the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is currently pegged at $16.4 billion, suggesting an improvement of 13.1% from the year-ago actuals. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research COP beat ...