Core Insights - Costco's stock experienced a significant decline of over $27 due to membership growth not meeting market expectations, despite better-than-expected sales and earnings [1] - The company successfully increased membership fees without losing members, and there is a notable influx of younger members, alleviating concerns about an aging customer base [1] - Costco has managed to mitigate price increases on tariff-affected goods, which is a positive indicator for its operational resilience [1] Company Overview - Costco operates membership-based warehouses that offer a wide range of branded and private-label products, including groceries, appliances, apparel, and home essentials [2]

Core Insights - Costco reported a revenue increase of 8% year over year to $86.2 billion for Q4 fiscal 2025, surpassing analysts' expectations by $100 million, with earnings per share rising 11% to $5.87, exceeding consensus by $0.06 [1][2][7] Financial Performance - The adjusted comparable sales growth for Costco has shown a consistent upward trend: 9.2% in FY 2020, 13.4% in FY 2021, 10.6% in FY 2022, 5.2% in FY 2023, 5.9% in FY 2024, and 7.6% in FY 2025 [6] - Total warehouses increased from 795 in FY 2020 to 914 in FY 2025, while total cardholders grew from 105.5 million to 140.6 million in the same period [6] - The global renewal rate has remained stable, increasing from 88% in FY 2020 to 90.5% in FY 2025 [6] Business Model and Strategy - Costco's profitability is primarily driven by high-margin membership fees, allowing it to sell products at low margins [4] - The company maintains a narrower product range compared to competitors like Walmart, focusing on private label products to differentiate itself [5] - Ancillary services such as food courts and gas stations enhance membership stickiness and contribute to growth [5] Market Context - Costco experienced growth during the COVID-19 pandemic and inflationary periods, attracting more cost-conscious consumers [8] - The company successfully raised membership fees for the first time in seven years without negatively impacting renewal rates or membership growth [8]

Core Insights - Costco has a strong track record of exceeding earnings expectations and has consistently performed well in the stock market [1][13] - The company operates 914 warehouses globally, with over 600 located in the U.S., and has a significant presence in various countries [3] - Costco's business model relies heavily on customer memberships, which provide high-margin revenue and contribute significantly to its profits [4][5] Membership and Revenue - Membership fees are a major source of income, with the company reporting over $5 billion in membership revenue in the latest fiscal year [5] - Costco maintains a high membership renewal rate exceeding 90% in the U.S. and Canada, indicating strong customer loyalty [6] - The company's ability to offer low prices is supported by bulk purchasing, which enhances its competitive advantage [6][10] Market Position and Future Outlook - Costco is well-positioned to navigate challenges such as import tariffs due to its extensive supplier network and strong private label brand, Kirkland Signature [9] - The company's pricing strategy is advantageous during economic downturns, potentially driving revenue growth while competitors struggle [10] - Analysts have historically underestimated Costco's performance, with predictions suggesting the stock could reach $3,190 per share by 2035, representing a 248% increase from current levels [13][14] Stock Performance - Costco's stock has appreciated over 500% in the past decade, reflecting its strong earnings growth and market confidence [14] - The stock currently trades at 45 times forward earnings estimates, a premium justified by its business model and loyal customer base [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are showing concern regarding Costco's financial results for fiscal 2025, as indicated by a modest stock drop of around 3% following the report [1][2]. Financial Performance - Costco reported net sales of $270 billion for fiscal 2025, with a gross profit margin for merchandise at 11%, indicating a low-profit model [3]. - Comparable sales for Q4 increased by 5.7%, which was lower than expected, raising concerns among investors [2][6]. Membership Dynamics - Membership revenue is crucial for Costco, with total paid memberships reaching 81 million, up 6.3% year-over-year [6]. - Membership renewal rates slightly declined to 90%, with newer online members showing lower renewal rates compared to other cohorts [7]. Valuation Concerns - Costco's stock trades at over 50 times its earnings, close to its highest valuation ever and nearly double that of the S&P 500 [9]. - If Costco's valuation remains stable, the share price is expected to grow at the same rate as its earnings per share (EPS), which grew by 10% in fiscal 2025, partly due to a membership fee increase [11][12]. Growth Outlook - The company is experiencing modest membership growth, which may hinder its ability to outperform the market in the future [13]. - Slow growth combined with a high valuation could lead to lower returns for investors, despite Costco being a strong company [14].

花旗将开市客的目标价从1065美元下调至990美元，维持"中性"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Core Insights - Costco's recent quarterly earnings report indicates strong sales and earnings growth, reinforcing confidence in the company's long-term growth potential [1][4][10] Sales and Earnings Growth - Costco's same-store sales grew by 6.4% in the fiscal fourth quarter ending August 31, excluding gasoline price changes and foreign-exchange translations [4] - Operating income increased by 9.8% to $3.3 billion, demonstrating that the pricing strategy does not compromise profitability [5] Customer Loyalty - The company reported a membership renewal rate exceeding 90%, consistent with historical figures, despite a membership fee increase earlier in the year [6] - Total paid members reached 79.6 million in the third quarter, a 6.8% increase from the previous year, and up from 78.4 million in the prior quarter [7] Expansion Opportunities - Costco continues to expand, adding 20 to 30 locations annually, finishing the year with 914 warehouses, an increase of 24 from the previous year [8] - The company has a significant presence in the U.S. and is also expanding internationally, with same-store sales growth of 8.3% in Canada and 7.2% in other international locations [9] Valuation - Costco's shares have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 52, which, while down from over 60 earlier this year, remains high compared to the S&P 500 Index's P/E ratio of 31 [10]

Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highlighted as a critical economic indicator, overshadowing other data releases such as car sales and jobless claims [2] - If the payroll data shows rapid wage growth, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach to inflation management [2][3] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is navigating a mixed economic landscape, with signs of slowdown in some sectors and growth in data center construction [2] Company Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) is noted for its strong long-term performance, delivering an annualized return of nearly 19% over the past 20 years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [7] - Despite a recent drop in stock price due to lower-than-expected membership growth, Costco's fundamentals remain strong, with increased membership fees and a younger demographic joining [7][8] - ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) is recognized for its strong position in the natural gas sector, with a focus on providing services to the Gulf Coast, and is considered a buy due to its potential upside despite a recent decline in stock price [9]

Core Viewpoint - Costco continues to show strong resilience in a challenging economic environment, but its stock performance has been lackluster despite solid financial results [1][3]. Financial Performance - For fiscal Q4 2025, Costco reported revenue of $86.2 billion, slightly exceeding analyst expectations of $86.1 billion [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the same period were $5.87, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $5.80 [5]. - Comparable sales growth for fiscal Q4 was 5.7%, with U.S. growth at 5.1% and international growth at 8.6% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Costco's warehouse stores remain popular due to their value proposition for bulk buyers, and there is potential for further market expansion, particularly outside North America [2]. - The company is focusing on increasing its private-label Kirkland Signature brand offerings to provide alternatives to goods affected by tariffs, indicating adaptability to current macroeconomic conditions [7]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Despite strong earnings, Costco's stock fell a few percentage points, remaining flat for the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's 13% increase [8][9]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of over 50, significantly higher than the average S&P 500 stock's P/E of 25, raising concerns about its inflated valuation [10]. - High valuations and the impact of tariffs on consumer goods have led to investor concerns about potential slowing growth rates, leaving little margin for error in Costco's stock price [11]. Investment Outlook - While Costco may still be a good long-term investment, its current high valuation makes it less attractive compared to other reasonably priced growth stocks [12].

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale Corporation's shares experienced a nearly 3% decline following a disappointing earnings report, leading to a quiet trading day [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Support Levels - Traders are observing potential reversal patterns as Costco's stock approaches the $885 support level, which previously held in March and April [1][4] - Historical support levels often attract buyers due to seller's remorse, as those who sold at these levels may wish to repurchase after seeing the stock rally [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Oversold Conditions - The stock is currently considered oversold, trading below its typical range, which may entice buyers expecting a reversal and could create upward pressure on the shares [5] - Successful traders typically wait for signs of reversal rather than attempting to catch the exact bottom, aiming for a better risk-reward ratio [6][7] Group 3: Technical Indicators - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is used to assess oversold conditions; a crossover of the blue line above the red line may signal the start of a reversal [7]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale reported a strong fiscal Q4 with revenue increasing by 8% to $86.16 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising by 11% to $5.87, surpassing analyst expectations [5] - Despite operational momentum, Costco's stock has remained flat year-to-date, raising questions about its future performance [1][9] Financial Performance - Fiscal Q4 revenue reached $86.16 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, while adjusted EPS was $5.87, exceeding the consensus estimate of $5.80 [5] - Same-store sales rose by 6.3% when adjusted for gasoline prices and foreign currency, with U.S. same-store sales climbing 6% and Canadian comparable-store sales increasing by 8.3% [6] - E-commerce revenue surged by 13.5% on an adjusted basis, indicating strong online sales growth [6] Membership and Engagement - Membership-fee revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to $1.72 billion, benefiting from a fee hike implemented last September [8] - Total paid memberships rose by 6.3% to 81 million households, with higher-cost executive memberships increasing by 9.3% to 38.7 million [8] - The company is focusing on improving engagement and renewal rates among younger members through enhanced digital features [4] Operational Strategies - Costco has effectively navigated tariffs by minimizing price increases and leveraging its buying power, while also promoting its Kirkland Signature private-label brand [3] - The average transaction value increased by 2.6% globally and 2.4% in the U.S., with overall traffic rising by 3.7% worldwide [7]