Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is planning for a more cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal 2026, indicating a focus on managing inventory levels and achieving normalized stock levels [8][9] - Organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 is expected to be similar to fiscal 2025, with a potential acceleration in the second half of the year [14][30] - The company anticipates a $50 million reduction in starting EBIT due to disposals, with additional impacts from recent sales in Ghana and Seychelles [22][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The spirits segment in Europe has faced pressure, but the company sees this as an opportunity to better control outcomes by focusing on local markets and consumer dynamics [9][10] - The company is focusing on driving growth in key brands such as Don Julio, Guinness, and Johnny Walker, despite organic sales declines [20][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The US market is expected to be cautious, with consumer wallets still stretched, impacting sales performance [28][30] - In Asia Pacific, particularly China, the market has been more challenged outside of the Chinese New Year, but the company is optimistic about future growth opportunities [29][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is reorganizing to capture growth opportunities by being more locally focused and occasion-led, particularly in Southern Europe [10][11] - There is a clear strategy to enhance commercial execution at the point of sale, with a focus on training and upskilling resources [18][47] - The company is committed to premiumization and expanding its portfolio, particularly in the tequila segment [40][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current macroeconomic pressures but believes that moderation trends in consumer behavior present new growth opportunities [62][70] - The company is focused on balancing growth across its portfolio, with an emphasis on both volume and price mix [56][59] Other Important Information - The company is actively managing its portfolio, with ongoing disposals of non-core assets while maintaining a focus on core brands [86] - There is a commitment to reinvest 50% of cost savings into better commercial execution and digitization efforts [70][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: US depletion outlook and inventory message - Management indicated that inventory levels have normalized and they are planning for a cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal 2026 [8][9] Question: Organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 - Management expressed confidence in achieving a similar organic sales performance to fiscal 2025, with expectations for acceleration in the second half [14][30] Question: Impact of disposals on EBIT - Management confirmed a $50 million reduction in EBIT due to disposals, with additional impacts from recent sales in Ghana and Seychelles [22][30] Question: Focus on the Astral brand in the US - Management sees significant growth potential for the Astral brand in the super premium segment and is optimistic about its scaling [40][41] Question: Changes in US route to market - Management highlighted the importance of both increasing the number of salespeople and enhancing their effectiveness through training and focused execution [46][47] Question: Structural headwinds and moderation trends - Management acknowledged the ongoing moderation trend but emphasized the company's ability to innovate and adapt to consumer preferences [62][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 1.7% organic sales growth, or 1.5% before the impact of the Syrah transaction in North America [4] - Organic profit declined by 0.7%, including the Syrah transaction impact, and declined by 1% excluding this [4] - Free cash flow was $2.7 billion, up $100 million from last year, reflecting solid working capital management [5] - EPS pre-exceptionals declined almost 9%, mainly due to a significantly lower contribution from Moire Tennessee and adverse FX [5] - Recommended full year dividend remained flat compared to last year, deemed prudent given the current backdrop [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Positive organic sales growth was observed in almost all regions, although operating profits were adversely impacted by increased overheads [4] - In North America, U.S. spirits net sales grew 1.6% organically with a positive price mix of 2.9% [32] - In India, growth was driven by prestige and above whiskey, with the UK-India free trade agreement expected to support future growth [30] - In Europe, Guinness was a main driver of growth, recovering from a period of consumer down trading [46] - In Africa, organic net sales growth was led by Ghana, while Brazil benefited from a more stable environment through premiumization [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Trading conditions remained challenging due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in key markets like the U.S. and China [29] - The company held or grew market share in 65% of total net sales in measured markets, including the U.S. [29] - Consumer sentiment remains subdued, with 25% of consumers indicating saving money as a top reason for moderating their TBA consumption [24] - Gen Z household penetration of spirits increased by six percentage points to 55% in 2024 compared to 2020 [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is sharpening its strategy to leverage its portfolio and competitive strengths in an evolving TBA landscape [7] - The Accelerate program aims to deliver $625 million in cash savings over the next three years, focusing on operational excellence and cost efficiency [10] - The company is committed to delivering approximately $3 billion of free cash flow per annum from fiscal 2026 [21] - There is a focus on digital investment to leverage data for actionable insights and consistent metrics [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management believes spirits remain an attractive sector long-term, supported by favorable demographics and increasing female per capita consumption [22] - Near-term pressures on the sector are viewed as largely cyclical and driven by the macroeconomic environment [24] - The company expects organic net sales growth to be slightly negative in fiscal 2026, with growth skewed to the second half [57] - Management is focused on instilling confidence in the team and leveraging the strength of the brand portfolio for future growth [62] Other Important Information - The company announced significant exceptional charges totaling $1.4 billion, including a $450 million charge related to Distill Ventures and a $230 million impairment charge for Aviation Gin [52][53] - Closing net debt was $21.9 billion, which was $800 million higher than at the start of the year due to unfavorable foreign exchange movements [54] - The leverage ratio increased to 3.4 times net debt adjusted EBITDA, above the target range of 2.5 to 3 times [54] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic net sales growth in fiscal 2026? - The company expects similar rates of organic net sales growth to those seen in fiscal 2025, with a cautious outlook for the consumer environment [56][57] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of tariffs? - The company anticipates a 10% rate for UK imports and a 15% rate for European imports into the U.S., expecting to mitigate 50% of the impact in the first year [59] Question: What is the focus of the Accelerate program? - The Accelerate program is focused on delivering cash savings, improving operational efficiency, and driving better growth through a more agile operating model [10][11]

Core Insights - Diageo plc's third-quarter fiscal 2025 results highlight a strong commitment to premiumization, with organic net sales growth of 5.9% and a positive price/mix contribution of 3.1% [1][9] - The company is focusing on higher-end offerings, particularly in tequila and Guinness variants, which has allowed it to maintain revenue growth despite softer consumer demand in some markets [1][2] Regional Performance - North America experienced a 6.2% organic net sales increase, driven by strong demand for tequila and favorable mix effects [2][9] - In Europe, double-digit growth in Guinness and pricing strength helped offset declines in spirits, indicating effective brand-led premium execution [2] - Asia Pacific faced pressure on price/mix due to downtrading and an unfavorable market mix, showing sensitivity to regional economic shifts [2] Strategic Initiatives - Diageo's "Accelerate" program aims to save $500 million over three years, with funds allocated for brand-building and innovation, reinforcing its premiumization strategy [3] - The company is strategically divesting lower-margin assets and focusing on core premium brands to prioritize high-margin growth [3] Market Challenges - Ongoing 10% tariffs on U.K. and European spirits imported into the U.S. present a challenge, but Diageo's premiumization strategy provides some buffer against these cost pressures [4] - Higher-end brands like Don Julio and Johnnie Walker maintain strong brand equity, allowing Diageo to pass on some increased costs to consumers without significantly eroding demand [4] Valuation - Diageo shares are currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 15.61X, which is below the industry's average of 17.58X [7]