Summary of Costco Wholesale (COST) July Sales Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Costco Wholesale (COST) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance**: - July same-store sales (SSS) excluding gas and foreign exchange (FX) increased by **7.0%**, surpassing consensus expectations of **5.7%** and up from **6.2%** in June [1] - U.S. comparable sales (ex-gas) were reported at **6.5%**, exceeding consensus of **5.6%** and **5.5%** in June [1] 2. **Traffic Trends**: - Worldwide traffic grew by **4.3%** in July, compared to **3.4%** in June [2] - U.S. traffic also accelerated to **4.3%** from **2.8%** in June [2] 3. **Ticket Size**: - Global ticket size (ex-gas/FX) increased by **2.6%**, slightly down from **2.8%** in June [2] - U.S. ticket size (ex-gas) was reported at **2.2%**, down from **2.7%** in June [2] 4. **Cannibalization Impact**: - The company noted a negative impact from cannibalization of approximately **50 basis points** in July [1] 5. **Category Performance**: - Fresh food sales were up high single digits (HSD), with notable strength in meat and bakery [9] - Food & Sundries grew mid single digits (MSD), driven by cooler, candy, and food items [9] - Non-foods increased HSD, particularly in gift cards, jewelry, and men's apparel [9] - Ancillary business saw a decrease in low single digits (LSD), with pharmacy, optical, and hearing aids being top performers [9] Valuation and Risks 1. **Investment Rating**: - Costco is rated as a **Buy** with a 12-month price target of **$1,133**, indicating an upside potential of **17.0%** from the current price of **$968.56** [10][12] 2. **Financial Projections**: - Projected revenue for FY 2025 is **$254.45 billion**, increasing to **$310.24 billion** by FY 2027 [12] - Projected EBITDA for FY 2025 is **$11.52 billion**, growing to **$15.45 billion** by FY 2027 [12] 3. **Risks**: - Potential risks include competition from grocery, convenience, big-box, and e-commerce sectors; commodity and FX headwinds; softening consumer demand; macroeconomic challenges; and supply chain issues [10] Additional Important Information - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately **$430 billion** [12] - **Enterprise Value**: Approximately **$421.7 billion** [12] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for FY 2025 is **$16.56**, increasing to **$21.51** by FY 2027 [12] - **Debt Metrics**: Net debt to EBITDA ratio is projected to be negative, indicating a strong balance sheet [12] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Costco's sales performance, traffic trends, category performance, valuation, risks, and additional financial metrics.

Core Viewpoint - Hema has decided to abandon its membership store format, with the last remaining Hema X membership store set to close on August 31, 2023, indicating a strategic shift away from high-investment, low-profit membership models towards focusing on its fresh food and discount store formats [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Hema's Membership Store Closure - Hema's last X membership store in Shanghai will cease operations, following the closure of seven other membership stores across major cities like Beijing, Nanjing, and Suzhou this year [1][3]. - The closure of these stores reflects Hema's strategic pivot to focus on its Hema Fresh and Hema NB formats, with plans to open nearly 100 new Hema Fresh stores in the upcoming fiscal year [2][3]. Comparison with Competitors - In contrast, competitors like Sam's Club and Costco are rapidly expanding their presence in China, with Sam's Club reporting a 40% increase in membership revenue in its latest financial quarter [1][12][14]. - Sam's Club has significantly increased its store count in China, reaching 53 locations by 2024, compared to only 15 stores in the first 20 years of operation [12][14]. Strategic Insights - Analysts suggest that Hema's decision to close its membership stores is a necessary move to refocus on profitable segments, as the membership model has been characterized by high investment and ongoing losses [11]. - Hema's previous attempts to compete with international giants like Sam's Club have been hampered by insufficient supply chain capabilities and a lack of unique products, leading to a decline in market performance [11]. Membership Fee Structure - Hema's membership fees are structured with two tiers: Gold members pay 258 yuan annually, while Diamond members pay 658 yuan, with cashback incentives for purchases made at membership stores [9][12]. - In comparison, Sam's Club offers similar membership fees, with ordinary members paying 260 yuan and premium members 680 yuan annually [12][14].

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company reported net sales of $20.89 billion for the month, representing an increase of 8.5% from $19.26 billion in the same period last year [2] - Comparable sales for the month were reported as follows: US 5.5%, Canada 7.6%, Other International 9.5%, Total Company 6.4%, E-commerce 15.1% [2] Sales Performance - Comparable sales excluding impacts from gasoline prices and foreign exchange were: US 6.5%, Canada 9.1%, Other International 7.5%, Total Company 7%, E-commerce 14.9% [3] - Comparable traffic increased by 4.3% worldwide and in the US [3] - Foreign currency fluctuations positively impacted total and comparable sales, with Canada contributing approximately 0.3%, Other International 2.6%, and total company 0.4% [3] - Gas price deflation negatively impacted total reported comparable sales by approximately -1.0% [3] Pricing and Transaction Insights - The average worldwide selling price per gallon decreased by approximately -8.3% compared to last year [4] - The average transaction value increased by approximately 2%, factoring in gas deflation and foreign exchange [4] - Excluding gas deflation and foreign exchange, the average transaction value increased by about 2.6% [4] Regional Performance - Strongest comparable sales in the US were observed in the Northwest, Midwest, and Southeast regions [4] - Internationally, the best results were seen in Australia, Taiwan, and Mexico [5] Category Performance - Food and sundries showed positive mid-single-digit growth [5] - High single-digit growth was noted in fresh foods, particularly in meat and bakery categories [6] - Non-food categories also performed well, with high single-digit growth in gift cards, jewelry, and men's apparel [6] - Ancillary business sales declined by low single digits, while pharmacy, optical, and hearing aid departments were the top performers [7] - Gas sales experienced a decline in mid to high single digits due to year-over-year price changes [7] Future Outlook - The upcoming reporting period for August will cover four weeks from August 4 to August 31, compared to the previous year's period from August 5 to September 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The closure of Hema's last X membership store in Shanghai marks the end of its membership store experiment, reflecting a broader trend of membership store failures in China [1][4]. Group 1: Membership Store Closures - Hema's last X membership store will officially close on August 31, 2023, completing the shutdown of all 10 Hema X membership stores nationwide [1]. - Metro has also struggled with its membership model, closing four membership stores in major cities since 2024, indicating a failure to establish a sustainable membership business [3]. - Carrefour has drastically reduced its store count from over 300 to just 4, following its acquisition by Suning, which has seen little success in innovating the brand [3]. Group 2: Comparison with Established Brands - Established membership stores like Sam's Club and Costco have expanded cautiously, with Sam's Club operating around 52 stores in China since 1996, while Costco has only opened 7 stores by 2025 [4]. - In contrast, local brands have aggressively opened membership stores, which has led to high financial demands and unsustainable growth [4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Chinese consumers generally prefer free entry and low-margin sales, leading to low acceptance of membership fees, even for established brands like Sam's Club and Costco [4][5]. - The primary consumer base willing to pay for membership is the middle class, but this demographic has shrunk, limiting the potential for large-scale expansion of membership stores [5]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Operational Challenges - The success of membership stores heavily relies on strong global supply chain integration and proprietary brand development, which local brands lack [6][8]. - Local brands often depend on existing supply chains for imported goods, resulting in high product homogeneity and reduced market appeal [8]. - Membership stores typically offer a limited SKU selection to control costs, which can lead to inventory issues if product selection fails [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The closures of various membership stores signal a need for local brands to reassess their strategies, focusing on supply chain capabilities, consumer habits, and operational models to potentially develop a successful domestic membership store brand [9].

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) exemplifies defensive investing with a strong membership model and pricing discipline, evidenced by a 90.2% global membership renewal rate and a 5.2% increase in shopping traffic in Q3 of fiscal 2025 [1][2] Membership and Revenue - Membership revenues are crucial, with a 10.4% year-over-year increase in membership fees, and paid memberships rose 6.8% to 79.6 million, maintaining a 92.7% renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada [2] - Executive memberships, which represent 73.1% of total sales, indicate strong member loyalty [2] Operational Agility - Costco's operational flexibility has allowed it to manage tariff disruptions and supply-chain issues effectively by sourcing locally and rerouting goods, which helps in controlling costs and maintaining competitive pricing [3] - The company has reduced shipping expenses and improved price consistency by manufacturing or procuring Kirkland Signature items locally [3] Product Performance and Innovations - Kirkland Signature brand sales are outpacing overall company growth, with penetration increasing by 50 basis points year over year [4] - Initiatives like 'Buy Now, Pay Later' and e-commerce expansion reflect Costco's proactive strategy in adapting to the retail landscape [4] Stock Performance and Valuation - Costco shares have increased by 18.8% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 11.9%, while competitors Dollar General and Target saw declines of 11.7% and 25.5%, respectively [5] - The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for Costco is 48.15, significantly higher than the industry average of 31.77, indicating a premium valuation [6][9] Financial Estimates - Costco's FY25 earnings per share (EPS) and sales estimates have been raised by 11.6% and 8.1%, respectively, driven by strong brand loyalty and execution [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current financial-year sales and EPS suggests year-over-year growth of 8.1% and 11.6% [10] - Current quarter sales are estimated at $85.83 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 7.70% [11]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Hongqiao Qianwan Impression City MEGA has achieved over 70% leasing rate and is set to introduce over 350 quality lifestyle brands focusing on social gatherings, family interactions, pet-friendly activities, and outdoor sports by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The project is the second Impression City MEGA in Shanghai, complementing the existing 48,000 square meters Costco China flagship store and the 110,000 square meters Hongqiao International Business Center [1] - The overall area of the super complex will reach 400,000 square meters, covering various scenarios including living, office, and retail [1]

Core Viewpoint - Costco's stock is currently overvalued despite its strong business performance, making Coca-Cola and PepsiCo more attractive investment options for income and value-focused investors [4][14]. Group 1: Costco - Costco operates on a membership model, providing a reliable revenue stream with a high member renewal rate of approximately 90% [2]. - The company is experiencing growth through new store openings and increased customer spending, but its stock valuation is high with P/S, P/E, and P/B ratios above five-year averages [4]. - The dividend yield for Costco is low at around 0.6%, which is disappointing for income-focused investors [5][4]. Group 2: Coca-Cola - Coca-Cola has shown strong performance with a 5% growth in organic revenues in the second quarter, appealing to consumers despite inflation concerns [6][7]. - The stock is reasonably priced with P/S, P/E, and P/B ratios at or slightly below five-year averages, and a dividend yield of 3% [8]. - Coca-Cola is considered a better value than Costco due to its strong business performance and reasonable stock valuation [8][14]. Group 3: PepsiCo - PepsiCo's stock is undervalued with P/S, P/E, and P/B ratios significantly below five-year averages, and a dividend yield of approximately 4% [10]. - The company reported a lower organic sales growth of 2.1% in the second quarter compared to Coca-Cola, indicating underperformance [11]. - PepsiCo is a diversified business with a history of dividend growth, and recent acquisitions may help it regain momentum [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a sudden pullback influenced by non-farm employment data, with the S&P 500 declining by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.2% [3] - Among sectors, large-cap value stocks outperformed large-cap growth and small-cap stocks, indicating a preference for stability in turbulent market conditions [3] - The report highlights that three sectors saw gains while 21 sectors faced declines, with utilities, food and staples retailing, and media and entertainment being the only sectors to rise [3] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 fell by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.2% this week, with large-cap value stocks declining by 1.8% compared to a 3.1% drop in large-cap growth stocks [3] - Utilities (+1.6%), food and staples retailing (+0.9%), and media and entertainment (+0.2%) were the only sectors to increase, while transportation (-5.9%), materials (-5.1%), and retail (-4.8%) faced the largest declines [3] Fund Flows - The estimated fund flow for S&P 500 constituents was -$16.95 billion this week, a significant increase from the previous week's -$2.2 billion [4] - Media and entertainment (+$1.59 billion), utilities (+$0.27 billion), and food and staples retailing (+$0.042 billion) saw inflows, while healthcare equipment and services (-$3.47 billion) and financials (-$4.15 billion) experienced the largest outflows [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.6% upward adjustment in the 12-month EPS forecast for S&P 500 constituents, with 18 sectors seeing an increase and 5 sectors experiencing downgrades [5] - Retail (+3.3%), media and entertainment (+2.0%), and technology hardware (+1.5%) led the upward revisions, while healthcare equipment and services faced a significant downgrade of -3.6% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Costco and Target are two prominent retail companies that have recently underperformed in the stock market, presenting potential investment opportunities at more attractive prices [1] Valuation - Costco has a market capitalization of over $413 billion, while Target's market cap is approximately $47 billion, reflecting investor confidence in Costco's growth [5] - Costco's trailing P/E ratio is 52.8, above its three-year median of 46.5, indicating it may be overvalued, whereas Target's P/E ratio is 14.6, below its three-year median of 17, suggesting a potential discount [6] Shareholder Returns - Costco increased its quarterly dividend from $1.16 to $1.30 per share, marking its 21st consecutive annual raise, resulting in a yield of 0.56% [8] - Target, a Dividend King, raised its dividend from $1.12 to $1.14 per share, yielding 4.4% with a 49% payout ratio, allowing for continued dividend increases [9] - Target has been more aggressive in share repurchases, buying back $251 million worth of stock last quarter, while Costco spent $215 million mainly to offset dilution [10][11] Recent Financial Performance - Costco reported $62 billion in revenue for the last quarter, an 8% year-over-year increase, with net income rising 13% to $1.9 billion [13] - Target's revenue declined 2.8% to $23.8 billion, with comparable store sales down 5.7%, although online sales increased by 4.7% [15] - Costco's membership renewal rates are high at 92.7% in the U.S. and Canada, indicating strong customer loyalty [14] Outlook - Costco's consistent growth and strong digital performance provide a competitive advantage, while Target faces uncertainty with projected adjusted EPS of $7 to $9 for 2025 [16][18] - In a challenging economic environment, Costco's stability and membership model position it as a more favorable investment choice compared to Target [18]

Core Viewpoint - The discount retail market is expected to grow significantly, with companies like TJX, Costco, and Dollar Tree positioned to outperform their full-priced competitors due to their unique business models and strategies [2][3]. Group 1: TJX Companies - TJX Companies is the largest off-price retailer globally, operating over 5,000 stores and selling products at 20% to 60% lower prices than full-price retailers [5]. - The company has successfully expanded by purchasing liquidated inventories from struggling retailers, which has allowed it to thrive during the retail apocalypse [6]. - From fiscal 2015 to fiscal 2025, TJX's revenue grew at a CAGR of 7%, with a 50% increase in store count and an expansion of gross profit margin from 28.5% to 30.6% [7]. - Analysts project revenue and EPS growth at CAGRs of 6% and 9%, respectively, from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028 [7]. - The stock is valued at 28 times this year's earnings, with a forward dividend yield of 1.3% [8]. Group 2: Costco Wholesale - Costco is the largest warehouse club retailer, benefiting from lower margins due to significant profits from membership fees [9]. - From fiscal 2014 to fiscal 2024, Costco's revenue and EPS grew at CAGRs of 8% and 14%, respectively, with the number of warehouses increasing from 663 to 891 and cardholders from 76 million to 137 million [10]. - Analysts expect Costco's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 8% and 10%, respectively, from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027, driven by expansion and rising membership fees [11]. - The stock is priced at 47 times next year's earnings, with a forward yield of 0.6% [11]. Group 3: Dollar Tree - Dollar Tree, the second-largest dollar store retailer in the U.S., has seen its store count increase from 5,367 to 16,774 from fiscal 2014 to fiscal 2024, with revenue growing at a CAGR of 14% [12]. - The company faced net losses over the past two years due to weak sales from Family Dollar, leading to the divestment of Family Dollar stores to focus on its core brand [13]. - Analysts expect a 38% revenue decline in fiscal 2025 due to the sale of Family Dollar, but anticipate a CAGR of 6% in revenue over the following two years and a positive EPS growth at a CAGR of 13% through fiscal 2027 [14]. - The stock is valued at 21 times this year's earnings, with potential for attracting more investors as the business streamlines [14].