Investment Rating - The investment rating for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation is Overweight, with an industry view of In-Line [4][18]. Core Insights - COSCO Shipping Group plans to increase its stake in CSEA by 1.1-2.2% over the next six months, with a total investment of Rmb679 million to Rmb1,358 million, funded through own funds and special loans [2][3]. - The share repurchase is expected to positively impact share prices, with active positive return-to-investment (RTI) expectations for CSE-A and CSE-H [3]. - The current trading price of CSE-A is above 1x price-to-book (P/B) ratio, complicating share repurchase decisions for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [3]. Financial Metrics - Price target for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation is HK$11.10, representing a 33% upside from the current price of HK$8.37 [4]. - Market capitalization is Rmb55,086 million, with an enterprise value of Rmb80,571 million [4]. - Projected revenue growth from Rmb21,912 million in FY 2023 to Rmb25,379 million by FY 2026 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) expected to increase from Rmb0.70 in FY 2023 to Rmb1.21 in FY 2026 [4]. - Dividend yield projected to rise from 5.2% in FY 2023 to 7.9% in FY 2026 [4]. Valuation Methodology - Target price-to-book (P/B) multiples are set at 1.2x for the base case, 1.7x for the bull case, and 0.8x for the bear case [6]. - The stronger-than-expected spot market has increased confidence in the tanker bull cycle [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation is Equal-weight with a price target of Rmb17.10 [1][2][3]. Core Views - The report anticipates an up-cycle in the crude tanker market over the next two years, driven by increased Chinese demand and higher oil production [2][3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) multiples are expected to rise, with a target P/B of 1.4x for 2025, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards the tanker market [3][4]. - Earnings forecasts have been fine-tuned downwards by -4%, -1%, and -2% for the years 2024-2026, respectively, following the 1H24 results [1][3]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation are projected to be Rmb0.70 for FY 2024, Rmb1.03 for FY 2025, and Rmb1.10 for FY 2026 [1][4]. - The revenue is expected to grow from Rmb23,093.1 million in 2024 to Rmb28,718.0 million in 2025 [4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a projected traffic growth of 7.3% in 2024, followed by 4.8% in both 2025 and 2026 [4]. - The average VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) gross profit per day is estimated to be US$21.2k/day for 2024 and US$23.3k/day for 2025 [3][4]. Risk and Reward Analysis - The report outlines a bull case price target of Rmb29.00, a base case of Rmb16.50, and a bear case of Rmb7.90 for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation [3][4]. - The consensus rating distribution indicates that 79% of analysts are overweight on the stock, while 21% are equal-weight [3][4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a revenue growth of 1.4% in the first quarter, with domestic terminal revenue increasing by 6.8% and maintaining a gross margin of 38.6% [22][11] - Despite a decline in overseas terminal revenue, strategic adjustments led to a 6.6% growth in operations in Spain and other regions [22][25] - As of the end of March, total assets were approximately $940 million, with 44% in RMB and 18% in EUR [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Yellow Sea region contributed the most to profits, with a 6.8% increase; the Yangtze River and Southeast regions showed varying degrees of profit changes [5][22] - The Southeast region saw a significant profit increase of 64% due to strong performance at the Xiamen terminal [5] - The company reported a healthy net return ratio of 31.2% and capital expenditures of approximately $91 million in the first quarter [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company’s port business grew by 8% year-on-year by May, outperforming the global average, with a notable 10% growth in China [12][22] - Global trade volume is expected to grow by about 3% in 2024, following a period of destocking in 2023 [11][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is actively promoting the development of 5G smart ports, with implementations in multiple locations and plans for global expansion to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [12][22] - The focus is on integrated business expansion, with existing logistics parks in various regions and a commitment to further develop smart port initiatives [18][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future performance, citing a positive growth trend in global economy and port trade, particularly in Europe and the US [13][22] - The company emphasized the importance of maintaining operational efficiency amid challenges such as the Red Sea crisis [12][25] Other Important Information - The company’s pricing model is based on contractually agreed quantities, with discounts for larger volumes [12][16] - The company has six 5G smart ports, with four located in China and plans for additional ports in the Middle East [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the situation with overseas terminals? - The Yellow Sea region has the largest profit share with a 6.8% increase, while the Yangtze region saw a decline due to high fixed costs at the Wuhan terminal [5] Question: How did the company perform in terms of throughput during the pandemic? - The company achieved a throughput growth of approximately 4.4%, significantly higher than the global average of about 1% [15][23] Question: What are the company's future acquisition plans? - The company evaluates financial feasibility and local political stability before pursuing acquisitions [7][8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's net profit increased by 0.6% in the first quarter [3] - The gross profit margin for domestic terminals reached 38.6%, with specific terminals like Guangzhou Nansha and Xiamen showing growth rates of 7.1% and 12.4% respectively [24][25] - Overall throughput volume for the company increased by 8% year-on-year, outperforming the global average growth forecast of around 3% [15][67] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic terminals saw a revenue increase of 6.8%, while overseas terminals experienced a revenue decline of 300 million, primarily due to issues in the Red Sea region [4][24] - The Mediterranean region, particularly the Greek PCT terminal, faced a negative growth of approximately 10% [14] - The company reported a 4.4% increase in throughput volume compared to the previous year, indicating a strong performance relative to global trends [31][104] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global trade volume saw less than 1% growth during a de-inventory period from March 2022 to August 2023 [11] - The company’s throughput volume in China increased by 10% in the first five months of the year, while overseas throughput grew by 4% [105] - The company is positioned to benefit from recovery trends in Europe and the U.S., with predictions of continued growth in the second half of the year [69] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its integrated logistics capabilities, with plans to expand its supply chain services and develop smart port technologies [107] - Future investments will focus on emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and South America [58] - The company is committed to replicating successful models from its Xiamen terminal across other ports [38] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current environment is characterized by a recovery phase, with expectations of continued growth in throughput volumes [69] - The company anticipates a return to a replenishment cycle in global trade, which should support its growth trajectory [34] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a balanced investment strategy to mitigate risks while pursuing growth opportunities [7] Other Important Information - The company has a healthy net debt-to-equity ratio of 31.2%, indicating a stable financial position [7] - Capital expenditures for the first quarter were approximately $91 million [27] - The company operates a diversified portfolio of terminals, which helps mitigate risks associated with regional disruptions [63] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors are considered when evaluating potential terminal acquisitions? - The company evaluates political stability, government relations, and potential synergies with existing operations when considering new terminal investments [94] Question: How does the company differentiate pricing strategies for internal and external clients? - Pricing is primarily based on volume, with larger contracts receiving discounts, while smaller contracts may incur higher rates [55] Question: What are the barriers to entry in the terminal industry? - The company benefits from a first-mover advantage in quality terminals and the significant capital required to develop new terminals, creating a financial barrier for new entrants [60] Question: What is the future shareholder return plan? - Management indicated that future returns will be aligned with the company's growth and profitability, with specific plans to be detailed in upcoming communications [64]