海外行业报告 | 行业动态研究 营收超预期，DAU 与 MAU 迅速增长 事件： Duolingo 2024Q2 公司实现收入 1.78 亿美元，同比+41%，略高于彭 博一致预期（1.77 亿美元）；毛利润为 1.31 亿美元，略高于彭博一 致预期（1.30 亿美元）；毛利率为 73.45%，略高于彭博一致预期 （73.35%）。调整后 EBITDA 0.48 亿美元，同比+130%，超越彭博一 致预期（0.39 亿美元）。调后 EBITDA 利润率为 27.0%，超越彭博一 致预期（21.65%）；Non-GAAP EPS 0.51 美元，大超彭博一致预期（0.35 美元）。 DAU、MAU 增长迅速，DAU 与 MAU 比例创历史新高：二季度， Duolingo 付费订阅人数达 800 万，同比+52%，超越彭博一致预期 （773 万）；DAU 达 3410 万，同比+59%，超越彭博一致预期（3292 万）；MAU 达 1.04 亿，同比+40%，超越彭博一致预期（9801 万）； DAU 与 MAU 比例为 33%，达到历史新高。 Duolingo Max：作为最高定价服务层级，Max 已在 27 ...

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Duolingo with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of $200.27, based on a 30x 2025E PE multiple [2][5][7] - The target price implies a 6.9% upside from the closing price of $187.38 as of August 9, 2024 [8] Core Investment Thesis - Duolingo is a global leader in gamified mobile learning with over 500 million cumulative users and nearly 100 million MAUs as of Q1 2024 [2][10] - The company has successfully combined gaming elements with language learning, achieving high user retention rates comparable to top casual games [3][35] - Duolingo's subscription-based model provides more stable revenue streams compared to traditional casual games that rely heavily on advertising [4][42] Growth Drivers - Emerging markets present significant growth opportunities, with current penetration rates below 0.4% in countries like China and India [39] - The family plan offering has shown strong traction, with subscription share increasing from 18% to 20% between late 2023 and Q2 2024 [19] - New product launches, including Duolingo Math and Duolingo Music, are expanding the company's addressable market [15] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from $739.9 million in 2024E to $1.15 billion in 2026E, representing a 3-year CAGR of 25.1% [6][47] - Non-GAAP net income is projected to increase from $213.2 million in 2024E to $385.2 million in 2026E [5][49] - The company achieved positive GAAP net income for the first time in 2023, with profitability expected to improve further due to scale effects [22][23] Competitive Advantages - Duolingo's gamification strategy has resulted in user retention rates approaching those of top casual games, significantly higher than traditional education platforms [35][36] - The company's AI-powered personalization engine, Birdbrain, and integration of GPT-4 features in Duolingo Max enhance user experience and engagement [41] - Duolingo benefits from low customer acquisition costs (CPI < $0.5) compared to the casual gaming industry average of $1.79 [45] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The 30x 2025E PE multiple reflects Duolingo's higher growth potential compared to peers in both education and gaming sectors [51] - Comparable companies in education (e.g., Coursera, New Oriental) and gaming (e.g., EA, Nintendo) trade at an average 25E PE of 20.39x [51][53] - The valuation considers Duolingo's unique position at the intersection of education and gaming, with significant room for monetization improvement [5][51]

司 跟踪报 ＃assAuthor＃ 外 研 公 告 海 究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------| | ＃市场 ma 数 rk 据 etData ＃ | | ＃ | | 日期 | 2024.08.09 | | | 收盘价（美元） 总股本（亿股） | 187.38 0.44 | | | 总市值（亿美元） | 82 | | | 净资产（亿美元） | 7.67 | | | 总资产（亿美元） | 11.39 | | | 每股净资产(美元 ) | 17.63 | | | 数据来源： Wind | ，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《增长潜力仍然很大》20240511 《业绩持续高速增长，盈利能力 提升》20240304 《保持高速成长，拓展学习赛 道》20231110 《 展 现 优 美 的 增 长 曲 线 》 20230814 MAU 首次破亿，付费用户增长空间巨大：公司的 MAU 在 2024Q2 首次破 亿，达到 1.0 ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 教育 ＃ investSuggestio n＃ ＃ investSuggestionChang 无评级e＃ ＃DUOL.O ＃dyCompany＃ DUOLINGO ＃title＃ MAU 首次破亿，业绩超预期增长 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 08 月 10 日 ＃市场ma数rk据etData＃ 日期 2024.08.09 收盘价（美元） 187.38 总股本（亿股） 0.44 总市值（亿美元） 82 净资产（亿美元） 7.67 总资产（亿美元） 11.39 每股净资产(美元) 17.63 数据来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《增长潜力仍然很大》20240511 《业绩持续高速增长，盈利能力 提升》20240304 《保持高速成长，拓展学习赛 道》20231110 《 展 现 优 美 的 增 长 曲 线 》 20230814 songjian@xyzq.com.cn SFC：BMV912 SAC：S0190518010002 我们的观点：公司继续取得超预期的季度业绩，公司不断提升产品的用户 体验，通过多 ...

This company integrated artificial intelligence into its core business, and it's already successfully monetizing the technology. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a red-hot theme in the stock market right now, and while there is a ton of hype, many companies are finding tangible and highly valuable use cases for the technology. Duolingo (DUOL 4.69%) is the world's largest digital language education platform, and its business was an incredible success before AI came along. However, the company is using it to c ...

Duolingo (NASDAQ:DUOL) is a company really taking off today. Despite the overall market being up considerably today, investors may look at the 14% surge in DUOL stock this afternoon and wonder what the company is doing to propel so much investor interest. Well, the online language learning company just released its second-quarter earnings to the cheer of investors. On the revenue front, Duolingo brought in $178.3 million, higher than the $177.1 million analysts had penciled in. But it was really the company ...

July was a quiet month but August started with a bang. Shares of app-based education company Duolingo (DUOL 13.59%) dropped 17.6% during July, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Without any news to excite investors, the stock drifted lower throughout the month. But that's already changing in August with the release of its latest quarterly earnings report. The S&P 500 was up 1% during July so it may be surprising to some that this was its worst July in a decade. In short, market co ...

Duolingo stock costs 10% more today -- and is worth every penny. Shares of Duolingo (DUOL 12.91%), the AI-powered language learning company, jumped 9.5% through noon ET Thursday after crushing analyst forecasts for second-quarter earnings last night. Heading into the quarter, Wall Street forecast Duolingo would earn $0.32 per share on sales of $177.1 million. Instead, Duolingo reported a profit of $0.51 per share. Sales were $178.3 million. Duolingo's Q2 earnings The news was actually even better than that ...

Duolingo, Inc. (NASDAQ:DUOL) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call August 7, 2024 5:30 PM ET Company Participants Debbie Belevan - Head, Investor Relations Luis von Ahn - Co-Founder and CEO Matt Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Andrew Boone - JMP Securities Bryan Smilek - JPMorgan Ralph Schackart - William Blair Curt Nagle - BofA Alex Sklar - Raymond James Shweta Khajuria - Wolfe Research Ryan MacDonald - Needham Arvind Ramnani - Piper Sandler Aaron Kessler - Seaport Eric Sheridan ...

For the quarter ended June 2024, Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) reported revenue of $178.33 million, up 40.6% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.51, compared to $0.08 in the year-ago quarter. The reported revenue represents a surprise of +0.82% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $176.88 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.33, the EPS surprise was +54.55%. While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determi ...