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Drop the Ship-pers: FedEx, UPS Downgraded as US Policy Bites Into Import Revenue
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-12 10:30
Core Viewpoint - Investors are advised to reconsider their expectations for UPS and FedEx due to the recent policy changes affecting low-value package imports, which are expected to significantly impact their revenues [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The de minimis exemption, which allowed low-value packages under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free, was halted on August 29, affecting 92% of all cargo entering the U.S., or approximately 4 million packages daily [2][3]. - The closure of this loophole is anticipated to reduce demand for e-commerce goods from abroad, particularly impacting retailers and shipping companies [3]. Group 2: Financial Outlook - Bank of America estimates that International Priority & Economy packages constitute 17% of FedEx's revenues and 16% of UPS's revenues, translating to about 1.1 million packages for FedEx and 1.7 million for UPS daily [3]. - Retailers like Lululemon and Tapestry expect profit declines in the tens of millions due to the policy shift, indicating broader implications for the shipping industry [3]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings - Bank of America downgraded FedEx's outlook from "buy" to "neutral," lowering its target price by $5 to $240, which is below the average analyst estimate of $264 [6]. - UPS received a more negative outlook, with a downgrade to "underperform" and a target price of $83, significantly lower than the $104 analyst average [6]. - UPS shares have decreased by 33% this year, while FedEx shares are down 18.7% [6].
美银:美国取消小包裹免税冲击航空货运需求 下调联邦快递(FDX.US)与联合包裹(UPS.US)评级
智通财经网· 2025-09-12 07:05
智通财经APP获悉,美国银行将联合包裹(UPS.US)的评级从"中性"下调至"跑输大盘",目标价下调至 83 美元;并将联邦快递(FDX.US)的评级从"买入"下调至"中性",目标价下调至 240 美元,以反映航空货运 公司因小额包裹关税豁免取消的影响而面临运量和成本压力增大。 美银分析师Ken Hoexter强调,每天有近 400 万件包裹在美国的小额免税政策下流通,该政策针对来自 中国内地/香港的包裹已于 5 月 2 日结束,针对世界其他地区的则于 8 月 29 日结束。 Hoexter写道:"国际优先及经济(出口)包裹占联邦快递收入的 17%,占联合包裹收入的 16%(不包括国际 市场的国内业务;即联邦快递平均每天 1700 万件包裹中的约 110 万件,联合包裹平均每天 2000 万件包 裹中的约 170 万件)。这合计 280 万件包裹并非全是小额免税包裹的,但却是每天 400 万件小额免税包 裹中的相当一部分。" 预计取消最低限额免税政策将导致 2025 年航空货运旺季表现平平,因为 2023 至 2024 年航空货运旺季 的紧张市场是由利用小额包裹关税豁免规避关税的中国电商企业带来的航空需求所推 ...
De Minimis Shock Morphs Into De Majoris Challenge For UPS And FedEx
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-11 17:38
United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE:UPS) and FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX) are bracing for fresh turbulence as the end of U.S. de minimis exemptions tightens trade flows, threatening parcel volumes and raising costs just as the critical peak shipping season approaches. Bank of America Securities downgraded both carriers on Thursday, citing weakening demand, higher costs, and mounting uncertainty around the industry's most critical quarter. Analyst Ken Hoexter cut UPS to Underperform from Neutral and lowered FedEx to ...
These Wall Street Analysts Are Wary About Shares of UPS and FedEx. Here's Why.
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-11 16:43
Getty Images Analysts at Bank of America lowered their ratings of shares of UPS and FedEx on Thursday A big Wall Street bank got more cautious about two U.S. shipping giants' shares today. Bank of America analysts on Thursday downgraded both FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS), setting price targets on shares that were among the lowest on Wall Street. The analysts cut their rating on FedEx to “neutral” from “buy,” trimming their target by $5 to $240, one of the lower ratings compiled by Visible Alpha and below the ...
FedEx Issues €850M Notes, Appoints New Digital Chief After FY25 Growth
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-11 15:35
Group 1 - FedEx Corporation reported solid growth in adjusted operating income and margin expansion for FY25, achieving a two-year $4 billion DRIVE target and adhering to a $2.2 billion structural cost reduction commitment [2][3] - The company reduced capacity on the Asia-to-Americas lane by more than 35% in May 2025 to effectively match demand [2] - FedEx issued €500 million in 3.5% Notes due in 2032 and €350 million in 4.125% Notes due in 2037, which are expected to positively impact its financial structure and operations [3] Group 2 - The company appointed Vishal Talwar as Chief Digital and Information Officer and President of FedEx Dataworks, effective August 15 [3] - FedEx has gained the trust of 67 hedge funds, indicating strong institutional interest that attracts stable income-seeking investors in the freight sector [4] - The stock value of FedEx is projected to increase by approximately 18.57% over the next year [4] Group 3 - FedEx specializes in transportation, e-commerce, and business services, and is recognized as a global leader in the express delivery industry with its "hub and spoke" logistics network [5]
美银:下调联合包裹和联邦快递的目标价及评级
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-11 15:22
美银证券将联合包裹的目标价从91美元下调至83美元,评级从"中性"下调至"跑输大市",将联邦快递的 目标价从245美元下调至240美元,评级从"买入"下调至"中性"。该行指,美国取消小额包裹豁免影响快 递公司业务量,且成本压力增大。 ...
2 Shipping Stocks Downgraded on End to Tariff Exemption
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2025-09-11 14:55
BofA Global Research downgraded both United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE:UPS) and FedEx Corp (NYSE: FDX) to "underperform" from "neutral," and to "neutral" from "buy," respectively. The brokerage also cut the former's price target to $83 from $91, while the latter saw its price objective lowered to $240 from $245. The analyst cited the ending of tariff exemptions for small packages.UPS was last seen up 0.2% at $84.06, but earlier slipped to a five-year low of $82. The security has been struggling with overhead ...
Buy, Sell or Hold FDX Stock? Key Tips Ahead of Q1 Earnings
ZACKS· 2025-09-11 14:41
Key Takeaways FedEx reports Q1 fiscal 2026 results on Sept. 18, with EPS estimate at $3.68 and revenues at $21.8B.Weak demand and tariffs may weigh on Express segment revenues in Q1.DRIVE cost cuts and an Amazon delivery deal are key factors in FedEx's near-term performance.FedEx Corporation (FDX) is set to release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 (ended Aug. 31, 2025) results on Sept. 18, after market close.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 1.1% i ...
UPS and FedEx see rating cuts at BofA due to concerns of muted global air package demand
Seeking Alpha· 2025-09-11 12:55
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has issued a warning regarding the de minimis impact on United Parcel Service (UPS) and FedEx Corporation (FDX), leading to a downgrade of UPS from Neutral to Underperform [2] Company Analysis - Bank of America downgraded UPS to Underperform, indicating concerns about its performance relative to the market [2] - The warning from Bank of America highlights the significant impact of de minimis factors on both UPS and FedEx, suggesting potential challenges ahead for these companies [2] Industry Implications - The downgrade of UPS may reflect broader industry challenges that could affect the logistics and delivery sector, particularly in relation to market performance and competitive positioning [2]
Analyst Days and Shareholder Meetings Add To Macro Backdrop
See It Market· 2025-09-10 15:52
Core Insights - The article discusses the busy schedule of corporate events, including Analyst Days and Shareholder Meetings, which can provide valuable insights into companies' short-term trends and strategic plans [1][2][3] Company Events - Uber Technologies participated in a Fireside Chat with Goldman Sachs analysts, while Visa, Apple, and Nike are hosting significant events this week [2] - CrowdStrike's Analyst Day is scheduled for September 17, following a stock price decline of over 20% from its peak of $518 in early July, despite strong revenue and earnings performance [6][9] - Wynn Resorts will hold its Analyst Day on September 19, with shares nearly doubling since April, although recent reports indicate challenges in the Las Vegas tourism sector [7][9] - Alibaba's Shareholder Meeting is set for September 25, with the company recently announcing the development of new AI chips, positioning itself competitively in the tech sector [10] - FedEx's Shareholder Meeting is on September 29, with expectations for clarity on its Freight division spinoff amid a 20% stock price decline over the past year [11] Economic Context - The article highlights the upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including retail sales and Federal Reserve policy decisions, which could impact market sentiment and company performance [4][5][12] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is currently around 15, indicating modest expected volatility in the S&P 500, suggesting a stable market environment for the time being [12]