Core Insights - Ground shipping costs are expected to rise further in Q1 due to annual price increases, impacting shippers financially in an already expensive delivery service environment [3] - FedEx and UPS are strategically prioritizing small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) to enhance profitability per package, with both companies reporting positive momentum in this sector [5][6] Group 1: Shipping Costs and Discounts - Rates for ground and express parcels are projected to increase, with per-package ground delivery rates in Q4 being 34.1% above the January 2018 baseline, while express rates rose to 5% above the baseline [7] - Discounts for FedEx and UPS shippers increased in Q4 after a decline in the previous two quarters, with average discounts rising by 0.7 percentage points for express shipments and 0.3 percentage points for ground shipments [4][7] - The increase in discounts primarily benefited small and medium-sized shippers for ground deliveries, while larger customers received more benefits from express shipment discounts [7] Group 2: Strategic Focus on SMBs - FedEx and UPS are focusing on gaining market share in the SMB segment, which is often more profitable on a per-package basis compared to large-scale clients [5] - UPS reported taking share in both volume and value from SMBs in Q3, while FedEx noted a strong quarter for business-to-business shipments among smaller shippers [6]

Core Viewpoint - Several prominent investors have increased their stakes in FedEx Corp (FDX), indicating renewed confidence in the company's margin improvement, network rationalization, and cash-flow recovery as global logistics stabilizes [1][8]. Investor Activity - AQR Capital Management LLC (Cliff Asness) increased shares by 1,718,278 to a total of 2,733,905, valued at approximately $0.64 billion, suggesting attractive quantitative factors such as valuation and operational leverage [1]. - Gotham Asset Management, LLC (Joel Greenblatt) added 45,557 shares, totaling 81,382 shares valued at around $0.02 billion, reflecting a belief in FedEx's improving margin profile [2]. - Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC (Jeremy Grantham) increased shares by 19,520 to 72,946, valued at about $0.02 billion, viewing FedEx as a strategically critical global transportation asset [3]. - Maverick Capital Ltd (Lee Ainslie) expanded its stake by 5,570 shares to 14,898, likely due to improving sentiment around FedEx's restructuring plans [4]. - Fisher Asset Management, LLC (Ken Fisher) increased shares by 502 to 1,863, indicating continued interest in FedEx as a global transport leader [5]. - GAMCO Investors, Inc. ET AL (Mario Gabelli) added 13 shares to a total of 2,063, consistent with a value-driven investment approach [6]. - Bridgewater Associates, LP (Ray Dalio) initiated a new position with 43,132 shares valued at approximately $0.01 billion, signaling macro-driven interest in FedEx [7]. Overall Market Sentiment - The quarter's activity reflects a growing institutional conviction that FedEx is entering a favorable operating phase, characterized by a combination of value-focused and quantitative buyers [8]. - The market may still be undervaluing FedEx's earnings normalization potential and operational leverage as multi-year transformation initiatives take effect [8]. Operational Factors - Key operational factors include cost restructuring and efficiency gains, recovering global freight and parcel volumes, stronger capital returns, and cyclical upside tied to trade and e-commerce demand [9].

Financial Markets And Banking - Wall Street will be closed on January 19 for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, with both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq suspending trading, resuming normal hours on January 20 [2] - The Federal Reserve will also be closed, leading to the closure of most commercial banks, including major institutions like JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., and Wells Fargo & Co., although ATMs and mobile banking will remain operational [3] Mail Delivery And Government Offices - The United States Postal Service (USPS) will suspend regular mail deliveries and close retail post office locations nationwide on January 19, while private couriers like UPS will not provide pickup or delivery service [4] - Non-essential federal, state, and local government offices, including the DMV and public courts, will be closed, and most public schools will dismiss classes for the day [5] Retail And Grocery Stores - Major retailers such as Walmart Inc., Target Corp., and Costco Wholesale Corp. are expected to remain open, although hours may vary by location [6] - Grocery chains like Publix and Whole Foods are likely to maintain standard operating hours, with customers advised to confirm specific times with local branches [7] Market Performance - On the last trading day before the holiday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust closed down 0.084% at $691.66, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined 0.12% to $621.06 [8] - Year-to-date performance shows the Nasdaq 100 index has advanced by 1.28%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices have risen by 1.19% and 2.02%, respectively [8]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx Freight has secured significant financing through a five-year, $1.2 billion revolving-credit facility and a three-year, $600 million delayed-draw term-loan facility [1]. Financing Details - The revolving-credit facility amounts to $1.2 billion and has a duration of five years [1]. - The delayed-draw term-loan facility is valued at $600 million and spans three years [1].

Core Insights - FedEx Corp. announced the formation of a ten-member board of directors for FedEx Freight ahead of its planned spin-off on June 1, 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Board Composition - R. Brad Martin will serve as chairman of the FedEx Freight board, bringing experience as the executive chairman of FedEx Corp. and leadership roles in various public companies [2][4] - John A. Smith, the incoming president and CEO of FedEx Freight, will also be a director, contributing over 30 years of transportation industry experience [2][4] - The board includes eight other experienced leaders from transportation, logistics, supply chain management, and technology sectors, emphasizing a commitment to a customer-first culture [3][4] Group 2: Board Members' Backgrounds - Jeffrey A. Davis has extensive financial leadership experience, having served as CFO for multiple companies, including Dollar Tree and J.C. Penney [4][7] - Donald E. Frieson has significant supply chain management experience, previously serving as executive vice president at Lowe's and holding various roles at Walmart [4][7] - Stephen E. Gorman has a strong background in transportation and logistics, having held CEO positions at Air Methods and Borden Dairy [5][7] - Cindy J. Miller brings leadership experience from Stericycle and UPS, enhancing the board's expertise in transportation and logistics [7] - Amy J. Salcido has significant technology experience and leadership in public company separation, previously with Kyndryl and IBM [7] - John P. Sauerland has extensive finance and risk management experience from The Progressive Corporation [7] - Samantha M. Smith has a background in government affairs and public policy, currently serving at FedEx Corp. [7] Group 3: FedEx Freight Overview - FedEx Freight is North America's largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier, known for industry-leading transit times, service levels, and reliability [9] - The company operates nearly 30,000 vehicles and has approximately 39,000 dedicated team members across about 355 service centers [9] - After the spin-off, FedEx Freight will function as an independent entity, focusing on operational efficiency and data-driven technology [9]

Core Insights - Extra fees for parcel shipping significantly contributed to higher-than-expected rates in Q4 last year, with projections indicating further rate increases in 2026 [1] Group 1: Rate Increases - Ground parcel rates per package rose 34% above the 2018 baseline during the peak delivery season, driven by increased package volumes and accessorial charges, with average surcharges increasing 13% from Q3 to Q4 [2] - Ground parcel rates are expected to rise again this year due to general rate increases (GRI), which will include hikes in base rates and surcharges, as well as new rating logic for certain package dimensions [8] Group 2: Factors Influencing Charges - A significant increase in residential shipments led to higher residential delivery surcharges, with major carriers like FedEx and UPS introducing a "blanket" demand surcharge despite forecasts for muted demand growth [3] - The blanket surcharge policy marks a shift from previous demand charges that targeted specific delivery costs, such as volume surges and large packages [4] Group 3: Surcharges and Competition - Large parcel carriers are using surcharges to compensate for slower revenue growth and are deemphasizing less profitable segments like residential e-commerce delivery, which may drive retailers to seek cheaper alternative carriers [6] - Ground carriers raised fuel surcharges by about 1% even as diesel prices declined, with year-over-year fuel surcharges growing 26% while tracked diesel prices only increased by 4.7% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Radiant Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:RLGT) is recognized as an interesting logistics company, but there is a preference for FedEx as a more established player in the logistics sector [1] Company Overview - Radiant Logistics, Inc. provides technology-enabled global transport of goods through air, sea, and land across various industries [1] - The company offers services ranging from basic freight forwarding and customs clearance to complex supply chain management and distribution [1] Investment Perspective - While Radiant Logistics has potential as an investment, certain AI stocks are viewed as having greater upside potential and less downside risk [1] - There is a suggestion to explore undervalued AI stocks that may benefit from Trump-era tariffs and the trend of onshoring [1]

Core Insights - Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) and FedEx Corporation (FDX) have both increased their dividends this year, highlighting their commitment to shareholder returns despite economic uncertainty [1][3] Dividend Performance - EXPD raised its semi-annual dividend by 5.5%, increasing the payout from $0.73 to $0.77 per share, with a payout ratio of 25% and a five-year dividend growth rate of 7.4% [3] - FDX increased its quarterly cash dividend to $1.45 per share from $1.38, resulting in an annualized dividend of $5.80 compared to $5.52 [3] Price Performance Comparison - Over the past year, EXPD has outperformed FDX in stock performance, attributed to better handling of market volatility and geopolitical challenges [5] - FDX's weaker performance is linked to revenue pressures from geopolitical uncertainty and inflation, leading to lower package shipment volumes [5] - EXPD's stock performance is supported by a recovering airfreight environment, with a 4% year-over-year increase in tonnage in the September quarter [6] E-commerce Impact - The demand for intermodal services has increased due to the growing importance of e-commerce, which continues to support growth for companies like Expeditors despite a moderation from pandemic peaks [7] Earnings Surprise History - EXPD has consistently exceeded earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 13.9%, while FDX has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters with a 5.7% average surprise [12] Valuation Comparison - EXPD trades at a forward sales multiple of 1.99X and has a Value Score of D, while FDX has a Value Score of A and trades at a lower forward sales multiple [11] Conclusion - EXPD's stronger share price performance and earnings track record suggest it is the more attractive investment option at present, with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) compared to FDX's Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [14]

Market Overview - Investors should not overreact to uneventful unemployment data, as it allows for a focus on broader market trends and rallies beyond last year's winners [1] - Money is aggressively rotating into overlooked sectors, particularly data storage stocks, which have seen significant rallies while former market leaders struggle [2] Company Insights - Apple and Nvidia have not performed well despite strong underlying businesses, as they have become sources of funds for investors seeking new opportunities [3] - Upcoming earnings season is expected to start strong with JPMorgan Chase, although caution is advised regarding CEO Jamie Dimon's potential risk emphasis [6] - Delta Air Lines is anticipated to report strong results, with banks like Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley also expected to perform well [7] Economic Indicators - The December consumer price index will be more significant than recent labor data, with signs of persistent inflation impacting consumer sentiment and presidential policies [5] - The JPMorgan Healthcare Conference is expected to generate merger-and-acquisition activity, with interviews of pharmaceutical executives planned [4] Sector Focus - Attention is on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which may influence Nvidia's stock performance [8] - Transport stocks are also in focus, with expectations that a solid report from J.B. Hunt will support a bullish outlook on FedEx [9]

Upgrades - Wells Fargo upgraded Airbnb (ABNB) to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $128, up from $118, citing two years of share underperformance and opportunities in hotel supply and sponsored listings, along with relative insulation from AI risk [2] - Barclays also upgraded Airbnb to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $120, up from $107 [2] - Susquehanna upgraded American Airlines (AAL) to Positive from Neutral with a price target of $20, up from $14, noting a constructive fundamental backdrop for airlines into fiscal 2026 [2] - JPMorgan double upgraded Southwest (LUV) to Overweight from Underweight with a price target of $60, up from $36, highlighting a potential for a $5 earnings per share outlook for 2026 [2] - Berenberg upgraded CrowdStrike (CRWD) to Buy from Hold with an unchanged price target of $600, citing valuation following recent underperformance [2] - BofA upgraded FedEx (FDX) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $365, expecting demand to be aided by infrastructure investments and $1.4 trillion in expected expenditures over the next three years [2]