Key Takeaways FDX saved $2.2B in fiscal 2025 via its DRIVE plan and targets $1B more in cost cuts for fiscal 2026. UPS plans to cut 20,000 jobs and reduce Amazon volume by 50% to control costs and boost profitability. FDX outperforms UPS in YTD stock performance, valuation metrics and projected long-term earnings growth.United Parcel Service (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) are two well-known global package delivery companies. Both these heavyweights offer a wide range of shipping services, including domestic and in ...

FedEx Corp ( FDX ) & United Parcel Service ( UPS ), two transportation companies that deliver goods in the U.S. and internationally, have both been beaten down over the past year. At the time of writing, both areContributing analyst to the iREIT+Hoya Capital investment group. The Dividend Collectuh is not a registered investment professional nor financial advisor and these articles should not be taken as financial advice. This is for educational purposes only and I encourage everyone to do their own due dil ...

Given the challenges FedEx is facing, should you be worried about its dividend? FedEx (FDX 3.14%) is a logistics giant that's known all around the world. It's been a safe, blue chip stock to own over the years. Not only does it have strong financials and post consistent profits, but it also offers investors an attractive dividend, which currently yields 2.5% -- much higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% payout. There have, however, been concerns of late about its growth. Trade wars and tariffs are weighing on busi ...

Core Viewpoint - FedEx has received the "Pharmaceutical Logistics Independent Validation Excellence Center" certification from IATA for its Asia-Pacific hub at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, marking it as the first global logistics company to achieve this certification in both air hub and ground operations [1] Company Summary - FedEx's certification ensures the highest standards in handling and transporting temperature-sensitive healthcare products, such as pharmaceuticals and vaccines, within its air logistics network [1] - The President of FedEx China, Xu Baoyan, emphasized the growing demand for professional logistics services in China's healthcare sector, highlighting the company's unique advantages in providing one-stop global delivery services and intelligent digital solutions [1] - FedEx's data indicates that the Chinese pharmaceutical logistics market is expected to experience significant growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% to 12% from 2025 to 2030 [1] Industry Summary - In the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, air logistics customers require closed-loop temperature control services to ensure product stability and efficacy [1] - FedEx leverages decades of expertise, a robust global transportation network, and customized time-sensitive delivery services to provide tailored solutions for clinical trials, biopharmaceuticals, and vaccine transportation [1] - FedEx operates global life sciences centers located in Incheon (South Korea), Singapore, Tokyo (Japan), Mumbai (India), Memphis (USA), and Veldhoven (Netherlands), with 19 core facilities worldwide adhering to the quality framework of the Pharmaceutical Logistics Independent Validation Excellence Center by May 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, highlighting its growth potential [1] - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 indicates a shift in investment strategies among local investors [1] - The diversification of investment portfolios across various industries and market capitalizations is becoming a common practice among investors [1] Investment Trends - There is a notable trend of investors moving from traditional savings in banks and properties to stock market investments for better returns [1] - The entry into the US market by investors from the Philippines reflects a growing interest in international investment opportunities [1] - The use of platforms like Seeking Alpha for analysis and comparison of market trends is becoming increasingly popular among investors [1] Sector Focus - Key sectors of interest include banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hospitality, indicating a broad investment strategy [1] - The logistics and shipping industries are particularly highlighted as areas of investment, suggesting their importance in the current economic landscape [1] - The trend of holding stocks for retirement alongside trading for profits shows a balanced approach to investment [1]

Core Insights - FedEx is facing challenges but is at the bottom of its decline as its turnaround and optimization strategy gains traction [1] - The planned spin-off of the freight segment is progressing well, with increasing package volume in the core Express segment and improved profitability [2] - The company has a robust capital return outlook, trading at a low valuation with a reliable dividend yield [3] Financial Performance - In fiscal Q4 2025, FedEx reported revenue of $22.2 billion, a 0.5% increase year-over-year, driven by the core Express segment [5] - The Freight segment saw a 3.8% decline, representing about 10% of total business [5] - The company achieved $2.2 billion in DRIVE-related savings and a 5.2% increase in operating income, with adjusted earnings of $6.07, up 12% year-over-year [6] Guidance and Market Sentiment - FedEx issued mixed guidance for Q2, forecasting flat to 2% revenue growth but a weaker earnings forecast of $3.70, which is $0.35 below consensus [7] - Despite the weak earnings forecast, growth is expected to accelerate compared to revenue, with capital return remaining safe [8] - Analysts have mixed responses to FedEx's Q4 results, with a 12-month stock price forecast averaging $285.75, indicating a potential upside of 28.68% [10] Shareholder Returns - FedEx has consistently increased its dividend payments, with a payout ratio suggesting sustainable double-digit growth [4] - Share buybacks have reduced the share count by 4.5% in F2025, enhancing per-share distribution [4] - Institutions own about 85% of FedEx stock, providing a strong support base as they continue to buy [11]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx reported strong fiscal Q4 results but saw its stock decline by 3%, impacting UPS shares as well [1][2] FedEx Q4 Results - FedEx's Q4 earnings increased by 12% to $6.07 per share, exceeding EPS estimates of $5.93 [3] - Q4 sales reached $22.22 billion, surpassing estimates of $21.73 billion and slightly up from $22.1 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - FedEx has missed the Zacks EPS Consensus in two of the last four quarters, with an average EPS surprise of -5.53% [4] UPS Q2 Expectations - UPS's Q2 sales are projected to decline by 4% to $20.84 billion compared to $21.82 billion a year ago [5] - Expected Q2 EPS for UPS is forecasted to fall by 12% to $1.57 from $1.79 in the prior year quarter [5] - UPS has exceeded earnings expectations in three of its last four quarterly reports, with an average EPS surprise of 2.42% [6] Performance & Valuation Comparison - Both FedEx and UPS stocks are down 20% this year, but FedEx has a total return of +86% over the last five years, outperforming UPS's +11% [7] - FedEx and UPS have lower P/E valuations at 11.7X and 14.2X forward earnings, respectively, compared to the S&P 500's 23.5X [8] Dividend Comparison - UPS currently offers a higher annual dividend yield of 6.52%, compared to FedEx's 2.41% and the S&P 500's average of 1.22% [10] Bottom Line - FedEx and UPS are considered appealing buy-the-dip targets in terms of value, with FedEx potentially being the better long-term pick despite UPS's attractive dividend [11]

Core Insights - FedEx reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, beating both earnings and revenue estimates, but provided a dismal outlook, leading to a more than 5% drop in shares after market close [1][3] Financial Performance - Earnings per share for FedEx were $6.07, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.93 and improving from $5.41 a year ago [3] - Revenues increased by 0.5% year over year to $22.2 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $21.7 billion [3] Future Outlook - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, FedEx expects revenues to be flat or increase by up to 2%, with adjusted earnings per share projected between $3.40 and $4.00 [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a growth of 0.21%, while the estimate for earnings per share is $4.05 [4] - FedEx did not provide earnings and revenue forecasts for fiscal 2026 due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly with China [5] Cost Management - FedEx achieved its $4 billion cost-cutting goal and aims to trim an additional $1 billion in the upcoming fiscal year [5] ETF Impact - The sluggish trading is expected to affect ETFs with high allocations to FedEx, including ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF, iShares U.S. Transportation ETF, First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF, and Pacer Industrials and Logistics ETF [2] ETF Details - ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF holds 40 stocks, with FedEx accounting for 4.6% of assets, and has an asset base of $0.9 million [6][7] - iShares U.S. Transportation ETF includes 44 securities, with FedEx making up 4.5% of assets and has $657.1 million in AUM [8][9] - First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF tracks 38 transportation securities, with FedEx accounting for 3.6% of the basket and has an asset base of $28.4 million [10][11] - Pacer Industrials and Logistics ETF tracks 109 stocks, with FedEx representing 3.1% of the holdings and has accumulated $1.6 million in assets [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx Corporation's shares fell 5.96% in after-market trading due to concerns over volatile global demand and uncertainty regarding U.S. trade policies, particularly with China, despite reporting strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results [1][9]. Financial Performance - FedEx's quarterly earnings of $6.07 per share exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.93, marking a 12.2% year-over-year improvement [2]. - Revenues reached $22.2 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.7 billion and reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous year [2]. - Operating income increased by 15% to $1.79 billion, with operating margin rising to 8.1% from 7% year-over-year [3]. Cost Management - The quarterly results benefited from cost reductions due to the DRIVE program, increased volume at Federal Express, and higher base yield across transportation segments [3]. - Operating expenses decreased by 1% to $20.4 billion [4]. Segment Performance - FedEx Express segment revenues grew 1% year-over-year to $18.9 billion, supported by cost reductions and increased export volume [7]. - FedEx Freight revenues fell 4% year-over-year to $2.29 billion, impacted by lower fuel surcharges and increased costs [8]. Shareholder Returns - FedEx returned approximately $4.3 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025, including $3 billion in share repurchases and $1.3 billion in dividends [12]. - The company plans to continue its robust share repurchase program and has announced a 5% dividend increase [15]. Future Outlook - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, FedEx anticipates revenue growth of flat to 2% year-over-year, with diluted EPS expected between $2.90 and $3.50 [13]. - For the full year, FedEx expects permanent cost reductions of $1 billion from transformation programs and plans capital spending of $4.5 billion focused on efficiency improvements [14].

Core Viewpoint - FedEx's shares dropped significantly due to a disappointing profit forecast, attributed to the impact of President Trump's tariffs on global transit [1][3]. Financial Performance - FedEx expects earnings per share of $3.40 to $4 for the current quarter, slightly below the forecasted $4.05 [1]. - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $6.07 for the quarter ended May 31, exceeding expectations of $5.84 [12]. - Revenue for the same quarter was $22.22 billion, surpassing projections of $21.79 billion [13]. - US daily package volume increased by 6% year-over-year, with US ground home delivery volume rising by 10% [14]. Market Sentiment - The disappointing forecast led to a decline in investor confidence, as FedEx is viewed as a bellwether for various industries [1][15]. - The stock initially fell by about 6% on the day of the announcement [3]. Trade and Tariff Impact - FedEx executives indicated that tariff policies are expected to continue affecting US-China air trade, with the company being more exposed to China compared to UPS [4]. - The tariffs have been reduced from an initial 145% to 30%, but this remains significantly higher than previous rates [4]. - The end of the "de minimis" exemption, which allowed duty-free entry for shipments under $800, is also impacting FedEx's operations [5]. Cost Management - FedEx announced plans for $1 billion in cost-cutting measures for fiscal year 2026, although challenges are anticipated due to ongoing trade unpredictability [11].