Core Viewpoint - Home Depot is expected to report revenue and profit growth for Q2 of FY2025, with projected revenue of $45.5 billion, a 5.4% year-over-year increase, and an EPS of $4.71, reflecting a 0.9% increase compared to the same period last year [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The consensus forecast for EPS has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, with an average earnings surprise of 2.2% over the last four quarters, although the last quarter showed a negative surprise of 0.8% [1][4]. - Same-store sales are projected to grow by 5.2%, with customer transactions increasing by 3.2% and average ticket price rising by 1.9% [4]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "One Home Depot" strategy is expected to support revenue recovery, focusing on supply chain expansion, technology investment, and digital upgrades [4]. - The acquisition of SRS Distribution is anticipated to enhance the professional customer ecosystem in the building materials sector, further solidifying market position [4]. Group 3: Market and Economic Conditions - The company faces challenges from weak demand and high prices in non-essential categories, particularly in high-ticket projects like kitchen and bathroom renovations due to rising financing costs [4]. - Macroeconomic pressures are expected to constrain profitability, with net interest expenses projected to increase year-over-year [4]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Home Depot's stock has risen by 13.1% over the past year, lagging behind the S&P 500 index (17.2%) and the retail wholesale sector (20.7%), but outperforming major competitor Lowe's (6.8%) [5]. - The expected 12-month P/E ratio is 25.81, above the industry average of 22.42 and the S&P 500 index of 22.86, indicating potential valuation premium risks [8]. Group 5: Long-term Growth Prospects - The long-term growth outlook for Home Depot remains attractive, supported by its extensive store network, product coverage, and synergies between online and offline operations [11]. - Strategic initiatives such as the expansion of the Pro ecosystem and upgrades to technological infrastructure are expected to provide support for capturing growth opportunities amid changing consumer trends [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Underperform" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs, with small-cap stocks showing strong performance [3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.9%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.8% [3] - 18 out of 24 sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences (+5.5%) and healthcare equipment and services (+4.2%) [3] Price Trends - The report highlights that small-cap value stocks (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed small-cap growth stocks, with a rise of 3.4% compared to 2.8% [3] - The sectors with the largest gains include pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (+5.5%), healthcare equipment and services (+4.2%), and durable goods and apparel (+3.6%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that declined include food and staples retailing (-2.4%) and commercial and professional services (-1.4%) [3] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flows for S&P 500 constituents showed a significant increase to +$7.58 billion this week, up from +$1.70 billion last week [4] - The healthcare equipment and services sector saw the highest inflow at +$2.76 billion, followed by media and entertainment (+$1.31 billion) and pharmaceuticals (+$1.09 billion) [4] - Notably, the software and services sector experienced an outflow of -$476 million [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.2% upward adjustment in the 12-month forward EPS expectations for S&P 500 constituents [5] - 22 sectors saw an increase in earnings expectations, with semiconductor products and equipment leading at +0.6% [5] - The energy sector was the only one to experience a downward revision, with a decrease of -0.3% [5] Global Asset Overview - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,450, reflecting a 0.9% increase for the week and a 16.1% increase year-to-date [11] - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, rose by 3.1% this week, indicating strong performance in this segment [11] Sector Observations - The healthcare sector recorded a price return of 5.0% this week, outperforming other sectors [16] - The materials sector also performed well, with a 1.8% increase, while the energy sector lagged with only a 0.5% increase [16] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector had the highest price return at 5.5% [16]

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot and Lowe's are set to report their Q2 earnings, with both companies showing positive stock momentum despite earlier tariff challenges. The upcoming earnings reports will be critical in assessing their recovery and future performance [1][11]. Group 1: Q2 Earnings Expectations - Home Depot's Q2 sales are projected to increase by 5% to $45.51 billion, up from $43.18 billion a year ago, with earnings expected to rise by approximately 1% to $4.71 per share from $4.67 [2]. - Lowe's Q2 sales are anticipated to grow nearly 2% to $23.99 billion compared to $23.59 billion in the prior period, with EPS expected to increase by 3% to $4.24 from $4.10 [3]. Group 2: Tariff Strategies - Lowe's has been more affected by tariff increases due to its reliance on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico. The CEO has emphasized competitive pricing and internal strategies to mitigate customer impact, including supply chain diversification and product redesign [4]. - Home Depot has a more diversified supply chain, sourcing over 50% of its products from U.S. suppliers, and has managed to shield customers from tariff impacts by avoiding aggressive price increases [5]. Group 3: Valuation Comparison - Lowe's stock is valued at 20.5X forward earnings, which is lower than Home Depot's 26.6X. Lowe's also trades below the industry average of 21X and the S&P 500's 24.7X [8]. - Home Depot's price-to-sales ratio stands at 2.4X, while Lowe's is below the optimal level of less than 2X [8]. Group 4: Dividend Comparison - Home Depot offers a 2.3% annual dividend yield, which is higher than Lowe's 1.9%. Both companies' dividends exceed the industry average of 1.06% and the S&P 500's average of 1.15% [10]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The upcoming Q2 reports will be crucial for both companies to determine if they have moved past tariff challenges. Home Depot is viewed as a more favorable investment due to its diversified supply chain, while Lowe's may appeal to investors looking for a cheaper stock price [11].

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is under political pressure, with inflation figures and weaker job data increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [1][4] - The implied probability of a Fed cut in September has risen to approximately 94%, up from 57% a month ago, with October at just over 60% and December at about 49% [4] Investment Opportunities - Lower interest rates are expected to benefit stocks, precious metals, and higher-risk bonds, while the Treasury yield curve may steepen modestly [6] - Potential investment winners include the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), and SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) [7] Home Improvement Sector - The stock market is at a critical decision point, with positive money flows observed in certain areas, particularly in the homebuilder sector [7] - Home Depot Inc. (HD) is highlighted as a bellwether for the home improvement sector, reflecting consumer sentiment and the existing home market [9][11] - Recent store traffic at Home Depot has been robust, indicating potential positive earnings results [11] Homebuilder Sector Performance - The homebuilder sector is experiencing a rebound, with smart money building long-term positions despite no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [12] - The performance of homebuilding stocks is occurring unnoticed, suggesting a potential undervaluation in the market [12] Gold Market Trends - Gold is trending higher, indicating a shift in investment themes amid a tech boom [13] - Countries are reevaluating their trading relationships and increasing gold holdings, which may lead to a medium-term bearish outlook for the US dollar [14][16] Central Bank Influence - Central banks cutting rates and easing credit conditions are seen as supportive of bull markets, particularly in tech, financials, and gold [17]

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Core Insights - Home Depot, Inc. is expected to report second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 19, with anticipated year-over-year growth in both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) [1][2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $45.5 billion, reflecting a 5.4% increase from the previous year [1][9] - The EPS estimate stands at $4.71, indicating a 0.9% growth compared to the same period last year [2][9] Financial Performance Expectations - Home Depot has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.2%, although it experienced a negative earnings surprise of 0.8% in the last reported quarter [2] - The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a potential earnings beat [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company's "One Home Depot" plan focuses on supply-chain expansion, technology investments, and digital enhancements, which are expected to support top-line recovery [4][20] - Home Depot's interconnected retail strategy aims to provide a seamless shopping experience, contributing to its competitive advantage [4][19] Market Position and Consumer Trends - Home Depot is well-positioned to meet evolving consumer demands with a vast store network and a growing online presence [6] - Comparable store sales are projected to increase by 5.2%, driven by a 3.2% rise in customer transactions and a 1.9% increase in average ticket size [6] Challenges and Market Conditions - The company faces challenges such as softened demand in high-ticket discretionary categories and macroeconomic pressures, including elevated interest rates affecting consumer behavior [7][8] - The demand for big-ticket renovations is expected to remain under pressure, limiting growth potential in high-margin categories [10][20] Stock Performance and Valuation - Home Depot's shares have gained 13.1% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 and the Retail-Wholesale sector [11] - The stock trades at a forward P/E multiple of 25.81X, above the industry average of 22.42X and the S&P 500's average of 22.86X, indicating a premium valuation [16] Long-term Outlook - Despite near-term challenges, Home Depot's strong market position and strategic initiatives suggest compelling long-term growth prospects [20][22] - The company's ongoing digital transformation and expansion of the Pro ecosystem are key drivers of its investment case [22]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Home Depot will report quarterly earnings of $4.71 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.9%, with revenues expected to reach $45.51 billion, a 5.4% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 0.1% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating a collective reconsideration by covering analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are significant indicators for predicting potential investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Analysts predict that the 'Number of stores - Retail' will reach 2,353, up from 2,340 in the same quarter last year [5]. - The estimated 'Number of customer transactions - Retail' is projected to be 460.54 million, compared to 451.00 million in the same quarter last year [5]. - The 'Average ticket - Retail' is expected to be $89.92, an increase from $88.90 in the same quarter last year [6]. Stock Performance - Home Depot shares have experienced a change of +13.9% in the past month, outperforming the +3.5% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite [6].

Group 1 - Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) has seen a price increase of 2.83%, trading at $407.22, with a price-target hike to $433 from $417, benefiting from a 10.9% quarterly gain and breaking into the black year to date [1] - The company is set to report second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, Aug. 19, with options traders optimistic about continued positive performance [1] - Historically, Home Depot has a modest post-earnings move average of 1.5% over the last two years, with five out of eight reports resulting in upward movements, including a 2.8% gain in February [2] Group 2 - The options market is currently pricing in a larger than usual post-earnings move of 4.9% for the upcoming earnings report [2] - Calls have been favored by traders, as indicated by a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.11, which is above 98% of readings from the past year [3] - The Schaefer's Volatility Index (SVI) for Home Depot is at 23%, indicating relatively low volatility expectations and sitting in the 13th percentile of readings from the past 12 months [3] Group 3 - The stock's 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 76, indicating it is in "overbought" territory and at its highest levels of the year [4]

Truist Securities将家得宝的目标价从417美元上调至433美元，维持"买入"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Home Depot (HD) reports results for the quarter ended July 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates. The earnings report, which is expected to be released on August 19, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. ...