Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects EPS to decline about 30% for the first half of 2025, with Q2 expected to be down less than Q1, which was down over 30% [13][14] - Gross margin for Q2 is expected to decrease by approximately 700 basis points, influenced by tariff components and increased SG&A expenses [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 10% increase in its business, with a 100 basis point gain in market share, particularly in the sweets category [22] - Seasonal chocolate is expected to be strong in the first half, with plans for low single-digit growth in everyday chocolate in the second half [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen strong growth in international markets, particularly in Brazil, with double-digit growth driven by Easter and innovation [98] - The competitive environment in the U.S. chocolate market remains stable, with no significant changes noted in competition from smaller players or private labels [124] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on becoming a snacking powerhouse, leveraging its core capabilities to maximize consumer reach and snacking occasions [80] - There is an emphasis on innovation and investment in iconic brands to meet consumer demands, with significant plans for new product launches in the fall [70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a weak consumer environment but notes that chocolate and salty snacks have held up well, with everyday chocolate pricing up 8% and volume down 4.5% [32] - The company remains optimistic about a path to earnings growth in 2026, even with current tariff levels, emphasizing the importance of mitigation actions [20][85] Other Important Information - The company does not anticipate a material impact from potential SNAP restrictions, as only about 2% of SNAP purchases are candy [48] - The company is not planning any buybacks for the year but remains open to reengaging in buybacks if the tariff headwind diminishes [99] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the risk of tariff expenses in Q2? - Management indicated that the unmitigated impact could be up to $100 million per quarter for Q3 and Q4, primarily from cocoa and Canadian retaliatory tariffs [10][11] Question: How should investors think about the magnitude of EPS decline in Q2? - EPS for the first half is expected to be down about 30%, with Q2 expected to be less impacted than Q1 due to strong net sales [14][15] Question: What is the outlook for balanced growth in 2026? - Management maintains a path to earnings growth next year, despite challenges, emphasizing the need for mitigation actions [20] Question: How is the company addressing changing consumer preferences? - The company has seen improvements in its instant consumable business and anticipates continued market share growth in the second half of the year [22] Question: What is the impact of cocoa prices on capacity expansion? - The new plant allows for greater agility and control over the supply chain, enabling the company to meet demand effectively despite high cocoa prices [42] Question: How does the company view the competitive landscape in the U.S. chocolate market? - The competitive landscape remains stable, with no significant changes noted in competition from smaller players or private labels [124] Question: What is the company's approach to pricing in light of cocoa inflation? - Pricing is expected to increase in Q2 and Q3 as seasonal pricing and price pack architecture are implemented [128]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects EPS to decline about 30% for the first half of the year, with Q2 expected to be down less than Q1, which was down over 30% [12][13][14] - Gross margin for Q2 is expected to decrease by approximately 700 basis points, influenced by tariff components and increased SG&A expenses [14][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 10% increase in its business, with a 100 basis point increase in market share, particularly in the sweets category [23] - The company anticipates low single-digit growth in everyday chocolate for the second half of the year, driven by strong innovation [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen strong growth in international markets, particularly in Brazil, where organic sales grew double digits [98] - The competitive environment in international markets has normalized, aiding the company's performance [98] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating tariff impacts through various strategies, including lobbying and operational adjustments [10][9] - The company aims to continue growing its chocolate business while expanding into the salty snacks and sweets categories, targeting younger and more diverse demographics [79][78] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a path to earnings growth next year, despite current tariff challenges [20][21] - The company is actively monitoring consumer sentiment and adapting its strategies to maintain market share amid a weak consumer environment [31][30] Other Important Information - The company is not planning any buybacks for the year but remains open to capital allocation opportunities depending on how the year unfolds [99] - The company is investing in innovation and marketing to ensure long-term growth, particularly in the chocolate category [113][114] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the risk of tariff expenses in Q3 and Q4? - Management indicated that unmitigated tariff impacts could reach up to $100 million per quarter, primarily from cocoa and Canadian retaliatory tariffs [8][9] Question: How should investors think about the magnitude of EPS decline in Q2? - Management expects EPS to be down about 30% for the first half, with Q2 showing a decline less than Q1 due to strong net sales [12][14] Question: What is the outlook for earnings growth next year? - Management maintains a positive outlook for earnings growth next year, despite the challenges posed by tariffs [20][21] Question: How is the company addressing consumer trends towards healthier eating? - Management noted that while consumer sentiment is weak, the chocolate category remains resilient, and they are focusing on premium and permissible products [31][30] Question: What is the competitive landscape in the U.S. chocolate market? - Management reported no significant changes in the competitive landscape, with smaller players softening and larger players increasing innovation [124] Question: How will the company approach pricing in light of cocoa prices? - Management confirmed that pricing will increase in Q2 and Q3 as part of their seasonal pricing strategy [128]

Financial Performance - Consolidated net sales for Q1 2025 were $2,805.4 million, a decrease of 13.8% compared to Q1 2024[6] - Reported net income was $224.2 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, reflecting a decrease of 71.7% year-over-year[6] - Adjusted earnings per share-diluted were $2.09, down 31.9% from the previous year[6] - Reported net income for Q1 2025 was $224.2 million, down from $797.5 million in Q1 2024, with diluted EPS of $1.10 compared to $3.89 in the prior year[45] - Non-GAAP net income for Q1 2025 was $425.4 million, compared to $628.3 million in Q1 2024, with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.09 versus $3.07[35] - Operating profit decreased significantly by 65.1% to $369,221 from $1,058,100 year-over-year[48] - The company reported a 67.2% decrease in income before income taxes, down to $323,654 from $986,258[48] Segment Performance - North America Confectionery segment net sales decreased 15.0% to $2,300.1 million, with organic, constant currency net sales down 15.2%[23] - North America Salty Snacks segment net sales increased 1.0% to $277.8 million, driven by a 4-point volume increase[26] - International segment net sales decreased 15.9% to $227.5 million, with organic, constant currency net sales down 7.9%[28] - The International segment reported a profit of $28.7 million in Q1 2025, a decrease of $14.1 million from the prior year, with a segment margin of 12.6%, down 320 basis points[29] - Total segment income declined by 25.5% to $766,953, with North America Confectionery segment income down 26.6% to $696,374[48] - Segment income as a percentage of net sales for North America Confectionery decreased to 30.3% from 35.0% year-over-year[48] Cost and Expenses - Reported gross margin was 33.7%, down from 51.5% in Q1 2024, primarily due to higher commodity and manufacturing costs[18] - Selling, marketing, and administrative expenses decreased 9.6% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year[19] - Hershey's unallocated corporate expense in Q1 2025 was $158.8 million, a decrease of $9.9 million or 5.9% compared to Q1 2024, driven by lower compensation and benefit costs[31] - The company reported a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 21.7% in Q1 2025, down from 26.5% in Q1 2024[37] - Hershey incurred business realignment costs of $16.4 million in Q1 2025, reflecting ongoing restructuring efforts[45] - Costs associated with business realignment initiatives rose by 55.1% to $25,854, indicating ongoing restructuring efforts[48] Future Outlook - The company expects full-year net sales growth of at least 2%, with reported earnings per share projected to decline in the high-40% range[8] - Tariff expenses for Q2 2025 are estimated to be between $15 million and $20 million[11] - The company is focused on enhancing long-term profitability through initiatives like the Advancing Agility & Automation Initiative, aimed at optimizing costs and processes[40] Balance Sheet and Liquidity - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $1,515,252 from $730,746, reflecting a strong liquidity position[50] - Total assets rose to $13,967,764, up from $12,946,861, indicating growth in the company's asset base[50] - Long-term debt increased significantly to $5,177,251 from $3,190,210, suggesting higher leverage[50]

Core Insights - The Hershey Company is experiencing increased investor interest ahead of its Q1 2025 earnings release, despite a 14% decline in stock price over the past year [1][2][3] - Investors are potentially shifting focus from cost pressures to Hershey's strong brand portfolio and strategic evolution, which may provide defensive positioning and growth potential [2][3] Financial Performance - Hershey's management has guided for a significant drop in Adjusted EPS for fiscal year 2025, projected to decline in the mid-30% range due to rising cocoa prices [5] - Cocoa futures have recently retreated by as much as 30% from record highs, indicating a potential easing of cost pressures [6][7] Business Strategy - Hershey is diversifying its product offerings beyond confectionery, with successful salty snack brands and a pending acquisition of LesserEvil, which aligns with consumer trends towards healthier snacks [9][10] - The company is expected to achieve at least 2% net sales growth in fiscal 2025, reflecting strong brand loyalty and effective pricing strategies [8] Operational Efficiency - Hershey's "Advancing Agility & Automation Initiative" is projected to deliver approximately $125 million in savings during 2025, aiding in cost management and funding for innovation [12] - The company maintains a strong dividend yield of 3.28%, supported by a 15-year track record of annual dividend increases [11][13] Market Positioning - The stock price decline from its 2023 peak may present an entry point for investors seeking quality in a defensive sector [16] - The upcoming Q1 2025 earnings report is crucial, with investors looking for updates on volume performance, margin management, and cocoa cost outlook [15][16] Investment Consideration - Hershey offers a combination of defensive stability and growth potential, making it a compelling option for investors amid easing cost pressures and ongoing strategic initiatives [17][18]

Core Insights - The Hershey Company reported a significant decline in net sales and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with net sales decreasing by 13.8% to $2,805.4 million compared to the same period in 2024 [6][12][41] - The company is facing challenges due to heightened cost pressures and ongoing tariff negotiations, but maintains a strong balance sheet that allows for continued investment in strategic initiatives and acquisitions [2][3] Financial Performance - Consolidated net sales for Q1 2025 were $2,805.4 million, down 13.8% from $3,252.7 million in Q1 2024 [6][41] - Reported net income was $224.2 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, representing a decrease of 71.7% compared to $797.5 million, or $3.89 per diluted share, in the prior year [6][41] - Adjusted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $2.09, down 31.9% from $3.07 in Q1 2024 [6][41] Segment Performance - North America Confectionery segment net sales decreased by 15.0% to $2,300.1 million, with organic, constant currency net sales down 15.2% [18][41] - North America Salty Snacks segment net sales increased by 1.0% to $277.8 million, driven by a volume increase of approximately 4 points [22][41] - International segment net sales decreased by 15.9% to $227.5 million, with organic, constant currency net sales down 7.9% [25][41] Cost and Margin Analysis - Reported gross margin for Q1 2025 was 33.7%, a decrease of 1,780 basis points from 51.5% in Q1 2024, primarily due to higher commodity and manufacturing costs [13][41] - Adjusted gross margin was 41.2%, down 370 basis points from the previous year [13][41] - Selling, marketing, and administrative expenses decreased by 9.6% compared to Q1 2024, reflecting reduced advertising and lower compensation costs [14][41] Outlook and Guidance - The company expects net sales growth of at least 2% for the full year 2025, with reported earnings per share projected to decline in the high-40% range and adjusted earnings per share expected to decline in the mid-30% range [4][5] - The impact of the Sour Strips acquisition is anticipated to contribute approximately 30 basis points to net sales growth for the full year 2025 [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales reported a decline of 13.8% year-over-year, impacted by a 90 basis point headwind from foreign currency translation and a 15-point volume decline due to inventory lapses and fewer shipping days [23][24][29] - Adjusted earnings per share decreased by 32% in the quarter, with expectations for a less severe decline in the second quarter as seasonal impacts reverse [29] - Adjusted gross margin decreased by 370 basis points, with expectations for further compression in the second quarter due to ongoing commodity inflation [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Confectionery segment net sales declined by 15%, with volume down nearly 18%, partially offset by net price realization of around 3% [24][25] - The North America salty snacks segment saw a 1% increase in net sales, with volume growth of nearly 4% driven by brands like Dots and Skinny Pop [25][26] - The salty snacks portfolio is positioned for growth, with Skinnypop consumption increasing by 5.4% and Dots retail takeaway growing by 20.6% [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International segment organic constant currency net sales declined by 7.9%, with performance ahead of expectations in key markets like Brazil and Mexico [25][15] - The global cocoa grind declined by 3.4% in Q1, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of declines, indicating ongoing demand challenges [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on becoming a leading snacking powerhouse, with strategic acquisitions like Lesser Evil and Fulfill to enhance its portfolio [6][7] - Investment in technology and automation is expected to deliver $125 million in cost savings this year, supporting long-term growth [17][28] - The company plans to launch several new products and partnerships, including a collaboration with Pokémon, to drive consumer engagement [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted heightened cost pressures but emphasized a strong balance sheet that allows for continued investment in the business [6] - The company anticipates a strong second quarter with net sales expected to increase by more than 20% as seasonal impacts reverse [24] - Management remains committed to its financial outlook, despite uncertainties related to tariffs and commodity costs [32] Other Important Information - The company did not repurchase any shares in the first quarter, prioritizing capital for acquisitions instead [30][31] - The adjusted tax rate for the quarter was 24.4%, reflecting challenges in executing tax strategies in a changing global landscape [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the second quarter? - The company expects total net sales to increase by more than 20% in Q2, reversing the impacts seen in Q1 due to Easter and inventory lapses [24] Question: How is the company addressing cocoa price pressures? - The company is engaging with the US government for tariff exemptions and is preparing strategies to mitigate inflation and protect margins [20][21][32]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales reported a decline of 13.8% year-over-year, impacted by a 90 basis point headwind from foreign currency translation and a 30 basis point benefit from the Sour Strips acquisition [22][23] - Adjusted earnings per share decreased by 32% in the quarter, with expectations for a less severe decline in the second quarter as seasonal impacts reverse [29] - Adjusted gross margin decreased by 370 basis points, primarily due to commodity inflation and negative sales mix, with expectations for further compression in the second quarter [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Confectionery segment net sales declined by 15%, in line with expectations, with volume down nearly 18% [23][24] - North America salty snacks segment net sales increased by 1%, with volume growth of nearly 4% driven by brands like Dots and Skinny Pop [24][25] - The salty snacks portfolio showed strong performance, with Skinnypop consumption increasing by 5.4% and Dots retail takeaway growing by 20.6% [14][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International segment organic constant currency net sales declined by 7.9%, with performance ahead of expectations in key markets [24][15] - Constant currency net sales increased mid-teens in Brazil and mid-single digits in Mexico, driven by improved category dynamics [15] - The global cocoa grind declined by 3.4% in Q1, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of declines [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on becoming a leading snacking powerhouse, with strategic acquisitions like Lesser Evil and Fulfill to enhance its portfolio [6][7] - Plans to build momentum in everyday business through innovation and programming, including new product launches and partnerships [12][13] - Continued investment in brands is expected to drive long-term growth, with a full-year advertising spend increase projected in the mid-single digits [16] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted heightened cost pressures but emphasized a strong balance sheet that allows for continued investment [6] - The company anticipates total net sales to increase by more than 20% in Q2, reversing the impacts seen in Q1 [22] - Cocoa prices are expected to build cost pressure each quarter, with robust planning underway to mitigate inflation and protect margins [19][20] Other Important Information - The company is pursuing an exemption request for cocoa tariffs, which cannot be mitigated through sourcing strategies [20][31] - Capital expenditures in Q1 were $146 million, lower than the prior year, with full-year expectations of $425 million to $450 million [30] - The company did not repurchase any shares in Q1, prioritizing capital for announced acquisitions [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for net sales growth in the upcoming quarters? - The company expects total net sales to increase by more than 20% in Q2, reversing the impacts from Q1 [22] Question: How is the company addressing cocoa price pressures? - The company is implementing robust planning to mitigate inflation and protect margins, with a focus on pricing and sourcing strategies [19][20] Question: What is the outlook for advertising spend this year? - The company anticipates a mid-single digit increase in full-year advertising spend, reflecting a commitment to brand investment [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Hershey Company is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with significant challenges stemming from high cocoa prices and changing consumer behavior [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hershey's revenues is $2.82 billion, indicating a 13.3% decrease from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has decreased to $1.94, reflecting a 36.8% decline year-over-year [1]. - The North America Confectionery segment is projected to see a 12.1% decline in sales, while the North America Salty Snacks business is expected to decrease by 1.1% [5]. Market Dynamics - Hershey is facing a challenging environment due to historically high cocoa prices and a financially constrained consumer base, leading to a projected adjusted gross margin contraction of 410 basis points [2]. - Shifts in consumer behavior, driven by economic uncertainty, have resulted in reduced foot traffic to convenience and drug stores, negatively impacting impulse sales and market share in the everyday chocolate category [3]. - Increased competition from smaller brands and evolving consumer preferences towards club, dollar, and online shopping channels are further complicating Hershey's competitive landscape [4]. Operational Challenges - Tighter inventory management by retailers is affecting Hershey's operations in North America [5]. - Despite slowing demand and inflationary pressures on key ingredients, benefits from price realization and supply chain productivity improvements may provide some relief [6]. Earnings Outlook - The current model predicts a potential earnings beat for Hershey, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +2.20% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7].

Core Viewpoint - Hershey faces significant challenges including tariffs, recession, and increased competition, which may impact its financial performance and dividend safety [1] Group 1: Challenges Facing Hershey - Tariffs are creating additional costs for the company, affecting profit margins [1] - The potential for a recession poses a risk to consumer spending on non-essential items like candy [1] - Increased competition in the candy market is putting pressure on Hershey's market share and pricing strategies [1] Group 2: Dividend Safety - The discussion revolves around whether Hershey's dividend remains secure amidst these challenges [1]

Company Performance - Hershey's stock closed at $166.59, with a gain of +1.44% from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.13% [1] - Over the past month, Hershey's shares have declined by 1.86%, underperforming the Consumer Staples sector's gain of 0.72% and the S&P 500's loss of 6.3% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Hershey's earnings report is anticipated on May 1, 2025, with expected earnings of $1.94 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 36.81% [2] - Revenue is projected to be $2.82 billion, indicating a 13.25% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Projections - For the fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $6.10 per share, representing a decline of 34.9%, while revenue is projected at $11.42 billion, showing a slight increase of 1.99% from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Hershey suggest a shifting business landscape, with positive revisions indicating optimism about the company's outlook [3][4] - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates estimated changes, currently ranks Hershey at 3 (Hold) [5] Valuation Metrics - Hershey's Forward P/E ratio stands at 26.93, which is higher than the industry's average Forward P/E of 22.86 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 5.85, compared to the Food - Confectionery industry's average PEG ratio of 4.36 [6] Industry Context - The Food - Confectionery industry is part of the Consumer Staples sector, holding a Zacks Industry Rank of 89, placing it in the top 36% of over 250 industries [7] - Strong individual industry groups, as measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, tend to outperform weaker groups by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]