Core Insights - Hershey is optimistic about cocoa inflation turning deflationary by 2026, with expectations of a lower tariff impact than previously anticipated for this year [1][5][6] Sales Performance - The North America confectionery division generated $2.62 billion in sales during Q3, contributing to a total group revenue of $3.18 billion, with organic growth rates of 5.2% and 6.2% respectively [2] - Hershey has raised its fiscal 2025 sales guidance, now expecting a sales increase of about 3%, up from the prior estimate of "at least" 2% [3][2] Cocoa Pricing and Cost Management - Cocoa prices remain 70% higher than two years ago, despite recent declines from historical highs, prompting Hershey to continue managing cost inflation through various strategies [4][5] - CFO Steve Voskuil indicated that Hershey is modeling a net price realization of five to six percentage points for fiscal 2025, with a more positive outlook for the upcoming year [4] Earnings Outlook - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to decline, with reported EPS expected to decrease by 48-50%, slightly adjusted from a previous forecast of 50% [3] - On an adjusted basis, EPS is now anticipated to fall by 36-37%, compared to the earlier estimate of a 36-38% drop [3] Tariff Impact - Hershey has reduced its tariff implications by $10 million, now estimating a range of $160-$170 million for the year [2] - The company has modeled an additional $200 million in tariffs for the upcoming year, while still anticipating cocoa inflation [6]

Core Insights - The price of chocolate has significantly increased, impacting consumer purchasing behavior during Halloween [1][2][3] Price Trends - Chocolate prices have surged nearly 30% since last Halloween and almost 78% over the past five years [2] - A 100-piece variety bag of candy now costs $16.39, up from $7.20 in 2020 [2] - Hershey's variety packs have increased by about 22%, while Mars has raised prices by approximately 12% [3] Consumer Behavior - Approximately 80% of Americans purchase candy for Halloween, which accounts for about 18% of annual U.S. confectionery sales [4] - Chocolate's share of Halloween candy sales has decreased from 52% last year to 44% this year, as consumers opt for cheaper alternatives [4] Economic Factors - "Macroeconomic headwinds" and wage growth lagging behind inflation are influencing consumer choices regarding discretionary spending [5] - Candy prices are rising faster than the national inflation rate, with a sector-wide increase of roughly 10% compared to last year [5] Market Outlook - Despite higher food prices, consumers are still allocating budget for chocolate and candy, indicating a strong and growing category [6] - The National Retail Federation anticipates 2025 will be a record year for candy sales in the U.S., with approximately $3.9 billion expected to be spent on Halloween candy alone [5]

Core Insights - American retailers are increasing discounts on Hershey products ahead of Halloween due to price hikes from tariffs and cocoa inflation [1][2] - Hershey is among the food makers with the largest increase in discounted goods sold, as reported by Jeffries [2] - The overall chocolate candy sales per unit remained flat despite an 8% price increase, indicating potential challenges for Hershey [5] Pricing and Sales Trends - The cost of chocolate has surged nearly 30% since last Halloween and is up almost 78% from five years ago [6] - A 100-piece bag of assorted Halloween candy now averages $16.39, a significant increase from $9.19 in 2020 [6] - Nearly 80% of Halloween shoppers expect to pay more this year, reflecting broader inflationary pressures [11] Market Response - Experts attribute rising cocoa prices to a global shortage linked to poor harvests and climate changes in West Africa [9] - Candy makers are adapting by shrinking product sizes and introducing new varieties, including fruit-flavored and cocoa-free options [9] - Hershey's CEO indicated that the company is experiencing disappointing Halloween sales and plans to adjust its seasonal product and marketing strategies [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy focused on small cap companies, highlighting the importance of identifying mispriced securities through understanding financial drivers and utilizing DCF model valuation [1] Group 1 - The investment strategy is not confined to traditional categories such as value, dividend, or growth investing, but rather considers all prospects of a stock to assess risk-to-reward [1]

Core Insights - Hershey delivered strong third-quarter earnings, significantly exceeding Wall Street expectations, leading to an increase in full-year guidance [1][2][8] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.30, beating consensus estimates of $1.06 by $0.24, or 22.6% [2] - Revenue reached $3.18 billion, surpassing the $3.12 billion estimate by $66 million [2] - Gross profit declined 15.8% year over year to $1.04 billion, with gross margin contracting by 870 basis points [5] - Operating income fell 29.1% to $434.6 million, and net income dropped 38.1% to $276.3 million [5] Business Segments Performance - North America Confectionery, the largest division, grew 5.6% to $2.62 billion [4] - North America Salty Snacks expanded 10% to $321 million [4] - International revenue climbed 12.1% to $244.8 million, indicating solid global demand [4] Strategic Insights - CEO Kirk Tanner emphasized that strong innovation and strategic brand investments drove momentum across business segments, indicating confidence in the company's strategy [3] - Despite margin pressures from higher commodity costs and tariffs, management raised full-year guidance, suggesting confidence in sustaining volume momentum and pricing actions [6][8]

Core Insights - Hershey reported $3.18 billion in revenue for Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of 6.5% and a surprise of +1.79% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.13 billion [1] - The EPS for the quarter was $1.30, compared to $2.34 a year ago, with a surprise of +19.27% over the consensus estimate of $1.09 [1] Revenue Performance - North America net sales reached $2.94 billion, exceeding the estimated $2.91 billion, reflecting a +6.1% change year-over-year [4] - International net sales were $244.8 million, surpassing the estimated $218.66 million, marking a +12.1% increase compared to the previous year [4] - North America Confectionery net sales were $2.62 billion, slightly above the estimated $2.59 billion, with a +5.6% year-over-year change [4] - North America Salty Snacks net sales amounted to $321.02 million, exceeding the estimated $313.19 million, representing a +10% increase year-over-year [4] Segment Income - North America Confectionery segment income was $571.48 million, above the estimated $556.94 million [4] - Unallocated corporate expenses showed a loss of $193.13 million, better than the average estimate of $-230.9 million [4] - North America Salty Snacks segment income was $57.75 million, slightly below the estimated $58.92 million [4] Stock Performance - Hershey's shares have returned -7.2% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by +3.6% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Hershey Co. reported disappointing Halloween sales in the US but raised its annual outlook due to price increases [1][4] - The company is experiencing a shift in consumer behavior towards cheaper and trendier sweets, influenced by higher cocoa costs [3][5] Sales Performance - Halloween sales are expected to be soft this season, with about a third of sales typically occurring in the final week when Halloween falls on a Friday [3] - Halloween accounts for nearly 18% of annual US candy sales, second only to Christmas [1] Financial Outlook - Hershey now anticipates full-year net sales growth of 3%, up from a previous estimate of 2% [4] - The company has increased its projection for adjusted earnings per share [4] Pricing Strategy - Hershey implemented double-digit price hikes in July due to high cocoa costs, resulting in approximately 7 points of price realization in North American confections last quarter [5] - The optimistic outlook reflects the company's ability to navigate economic pressures on US consumers [5] Consumer Trends - Despite economic pressures, the company remains optimistic about consumer resilience in its category [6] - Many food companies are seeing lower-income consumers focusing on essentials, but Hershey's category is showing resilience [6] Tariff Impact - Hershey expects tariff expenses to be between $160 million and $170 million, a reduction of $10 million due to lower Canadian retaliatory tariffs [6] Diversification - Hershey is perceived as less diversified compared to competitors like Mondelez International Inc. [7] - The company recently acquired LesserEvil, which produces organic snacks, and its sales of salty snacks in North America rose 10% last quarter, exceeding the overall growth rate [7]

Core Insights - Hershey reported that Halloween sales have been soft this year but anticipates that last-minute buying will help bring sales up to 2024 levels [1] Company Summary - Hershey's Halloween sales performance has been weaker than expected this year [1] - The company expects a rebound in sales due to last-minute purchases, which could align sales with the levels seen in 2024 [1]

Core Insights - The company reported third-quarter net sales of $3.18 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $3.11 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.30, also above the forecast of $1.07 [1] - Due to strong demand for candy and snacks, the company raised its performance guidance, now expecting a full-year net sales growth of approximately 3%, up from the previous estimate of at least 2% [1] - The company anticipates a full-year adjusted EPS decline of 36% to 37%, an improvement from the prior forecast of a decline of 36% to 38% [1] - The company announced a quarterly dividend of $1.37 per share [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing balanced growth across its portfolio, with a long-term revenue growth algorithm of 2% to 4% expected to be maintained [8][19] - Cocoa costs have moderated significantly, although the company still anticipates year-over-year inflation [7][41] - The company has slightly lowered its tariff estimate, contributing to a more favorable outlook for earnings recovery over time [7][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The everyday CMG business has shown double-digit growth in the last four weeks, indicating strong performance in this segment [15][16] - The core business achieved close to 5% growth in Q3, excluding the impact of new innovations like Reese's Oreo [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that Halloween sales have been disappointing, with a slow start attributed to warm weather and consumer behavior [23][24] - The convenience store channel is performing well, with CMG growth at over 6%, indicating a healthy market presence [76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term growth while rebuilding margins, emphasizing the importance of investing in brands and innovation [8][41] - There is a robust pipeline of innovation planned for 2026 and 2027, with a balance between core business growth and new product introductions [32][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that the consumer market is challenging but believes the category remains resilient [84][85] - The company is optimistic about cocoa costs moderating and potential tariff relief, although it remains cautious about the overall economic environment [41][42] Other Important Information - The company is actively analyzing consumer insights to improve product offerings and marketing strategies for future seasons [24][25] - The tax rate has been impacted by several factors, including adjustments in reserves and procurement strategies, with further guidance expected in future calls [105][106] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on 2026 expectations and EPS growth - Management discussed the balanced growth and the importance of defining success for 2026, focusing on category growth and margin recovery [8][19] Question: Elasticity and pricing expectations - Management indicated that elasticity is a significant factor in planning for next year, with current expectations being cautiously optimistic [10][11] Question: Halloween sales performance - Management acknowledged a slow start for Halloween but emphasized the importance of consumer insights for future improvements [23][24] Question: Cocoa costs and pricing strategy - Management noted that cocoa costs are still significantly higher than previous years, and pricing strategies will be carefully managed [27][51] Question: Innovation pipeline for 2026 - Management highlighted the importance of innovation, particularly with successful products like Reese's Oreo, and a strong pipeline for future growth [32][33] Question: Consumer health and SNAP program impacts - Management expressed that while consumer sentiment is under pressure, the category remains resilient, with minimal expected impact from SNAP changes [85][87] Question: International market performance - Management acknowledged challenges in the international market but remains optimistic about growth and returning to profitability [59][60]