Group 1: Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - The government shutdown continues with no resolution in sight, affecting around 750,000 federal employees and delaying key economic reports [3][11] - The shutdown has led to the postponement of important inflation reports, which could impact market sentiment [3][10] Group 2: China's Crackdown on Tech Companies - China is intensifying its scrutiny of American tech firms, with Qualcomm being investigated for alleged anti-monopoly violations, resulting in a stock decline of over 2% [2] - Beijing is also enforcing stricter controls on Nvidia AI chips, mobilizing customs officers to prevent major tech firms from purchasing these products [4][5] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Market Reactions - Oil prices fell by approximately 1.6% following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, reducing market risk premiums [6] - Gold prices have fluctuated but remain above $4,000, indicating ongoing investor interest amid geopolitical tensions [7][48] Group 4: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Preliminary consumer sentiment for October is forecasted to drop to 54, reflecting concerns over inflation and the job market [10] - The dollar has shown some strength against major peers, hovering near a two-month high, although analysts suggest this may not be sustainable due to ongoing economic risks [12][13] Group 5: Upcoming Earnings Season - The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to be significant, with major banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs set to report [52] - Analysts are preparing for potential market reactions based on earnings reports, emphasizing the importance of understanding key financial metrics [20][21] Group 6: Chocolate Price Increases - Chocolate prices are rising significantly due to a 12.9% yearly drop in global cocoa output and new tariffs on key producers, leading to price hikes from major brands [45][46] - The cocoa market is expected to continue expanding at around 5% annually, indicating sustained demand despite higher prices [46] Group 7: Stock Market Movements - Levi Strauss raised its full-year outlook but saw a stock decline due to concerns over margin pressure and tariffs [32] - Regetti's stock surged over 80% this quarter, driven by speculation around AI infrastructure spending, although analysts remain cautious about cash burn [35] - Samsung's stock has risen over 30% this month, reflecting a successful push into chips and AI infrastructure [37]

Company Performance - Hershey's stock closed at $192.58, reflecting a -1.52% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.28% [1] - Over the past month, Hershey's stock has increased by 5.37%, outperforming the Consumer Staples sector's decline of 3.78% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.03% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Hershey is set to announce its earnings on October 30, 2025, with an expected EPS of $1.07, which represents a decline of 54.27% from the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $3.11 billion, indicating a growth of 4.1% compared to the previous year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $5.91 per share and revenue of $11.51 billion, reflecting changes of -36.93% and +2.78% respectively from the prior year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Hershey may indicate shifting business dynamics, with positive adjustments suggesting a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Hershey's current Forward P/E ratio is 33.07, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 22.41 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 4.72, higher than the average PEG ratio of 3.55 for the Food - Confectionery industry [7] Industry Context - The Food - Confectionery industry is part of the Consumer Staples sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 212, placing it in the bottom 15% of over 250 industries [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the trend of chocolate products being reformulated with less chocolate content due to rising cocoa prices and supply shortages caused by adverse weather and agricultural issues in West Africa [1][2] - Candy manufacturers are innovating to appeal to younger consumers, particularly Generation Z and Millennials, by introducing new flavors and nostalgic products while masking the reduction in chocolate content as a creative strategy rather than a cost-saving measure [1][2] - The cocoa crisis has led to a notable increase in the popularity of non-chocolate candy options, such as gummies, which are not affected by cocoa supply issues, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3] Group 2 - Cocoa prices have surged dramatically, reaching a historical high of $12,000 per ton, significantly above the long-term average of $4,000 per ton, prompting manufacturers to adjust their product offerings [2] - Some companies are responding to the cocoa crisis by producing smaller-sized candy products, which contain less chocolate, as a way to manage costs while still meeting consumer demand [2] - Despite the ongoing cocoa crisis, consumer demand for sweets remains strong, particularly during seasonal events like Halloween, where variety and quantity are prioritized over chocolate content [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting the inherent risks involved in trading [3]. Company and Industry Analysis - The analysis is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional investment advice, indicating a focus on providing insights rather than direct recommendations [3][4]. - There is a clear distinction made between the opinions expressed in the article and those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, suggesting that the views may not represent a consensus within the platform [4].

Core Insights - The Hershey Company will present product innovations and growth strategies at the 2025 NACS Show Expo, highlighting the Reese's OREO® Cup and new offerings in its snacking portfolio [1][3] - The company aims to leverage data-driven insights to enhance bundling strategies, promotional tactics, and merchandising approaches to boost sales in convenience stores [1] Product Innovations - The Reese's OREO® Cup combines milk chocolate and white creme with OREO® cookie crumbs, expected to be one of the biggest launches for Reese's [4] - New products include Jolly Rancher Ropes in tropical flavors, Shaq-A-Licious XL Gummies in sneaker shapes, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels in buffalo flavor, and reformulated SkinnyPop Popcorn [2][4] - Hershey's sweets business has grown by 23.2% in 2025, with Jolly Rancher and Shaq-A-Licious XL Gummies being among the fastest-growing non-chocolate confectionery brands in convenience stores [2][4] Sales Performance - Hershey's salty brands have seen a 9.5% year-to-date sales increase in convenience stores, outpacing the total category [4][8] - Dot's Homestyle Pretzels is the number one pretzel franchise in convenience stores, growing by 16.4% in the past year [4] - SkinnyPop Popcorn is the second-largest branded popcorn in convenience stores [4] Growth Strategies - The company emphasizes optimizing salty snacks assortment by stocking top-performing SKUs and using vertical merchandising to enhance visibility [5] - Fast-growing brands like Jolly Rancher and Shaq-A-Licious XL Gummies are driving Hershey's non-chocolate confectionery growth, with strategic acquisitions aimed at appealing to Gen Z shoppers [6] - The Everyday Multiples (EDM) strategy encourages multi-unit purchases by bundling low-cost items, resulting in a 56% average unit lift from confectionery promotions in convenience stores [7][11] Event Details - The NACS Show Expo 2025 will take place from October 15-17, 2025, in Chicago, IL, with Hershey's booth located at S5706 [3][8]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed strong performance last week, with major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.82%, 0.84%, and 0.96% respectively [1] - Investor optimism was fueled by advancements in Artificial Intelligence and expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite a partial government shutdown creating uncertainties [1] Consumer Confidence and Labor Market - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for September dropped by 3.6 points to 94.2, marking its lowest level since April, attributed to inflation and a weakening job market [2] - Job openings increased slightly by 19,000 to 7.227 million in August, while hiring decreased by 114,000 to 5.126 million according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [2] Zacks Research Performance - Amneal Pharmaceuticals saw a stock increase of 29.9% since its Zacks Rank upgrade on July 25, outperforming the S&P 500's 5.5% increase [4][7] - Leidos Holdings experienced a 19.8% return following a Zacks Rank upgrade on July 28, also surpassing the S&P 500's 5.1% increase [5][7] - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned +8.64% in 2025 through September 1, compared to +7.60% for the S&P 500 index [5] Focus List and Model Portfolios - The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned 13.74% in 2025 through August 31, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 10.79% [12] - Intellia Therapeutics gained 85.9% and Shopify returned 38.3% over the past 12 weeks, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 7% increase during the same period [11] Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP) - The ECAP returned +0.20% in Q2 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 index's +10.94% gain [16] - The portfolio aims to minimize capital loss by holding shares of companies with a proven track record of earnings stability over 20+ years [17] Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) - Johnson & Johnson returned 20.9% and Home Depot increased by 6.3% over the past 12 weeks, benefiting from investor preference for quality dividend stocks amid market volatility [19] - The ECDP returned -3.17% in Q2 2025, compared to the S&P 500 index's +10.94% gain [20] Top 10 Stocks Performance - Goldman Sachs, part of the Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2025, increased by 38% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 14.2% increase [22] - The Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +2,369.7% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 522.5% [24]

Company Overview - The Hershey Company is the leading confectionery manufacturer in the US, with a growing presence in non-chocolate snacks and a portfolio of popular brands including Reese's, Payday, Almond Joy, and Kit Kat (US only) [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching companies across various sectors, including commodities and technology, and has researched over 1000 companies in total [1] Investment Focus - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where they have researched hundreds of different companies, with a particular interest in metals and mining stocks, as well as comfort in consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]

Company Overview - The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) produces and sells a variety of confectionery and snack products under well-known brands such as Hershey's, Reese's, Kit Kat, and Jolly Rancher [2] Market Position - Hershey is considered to be in an "unassailable position" with commodity prices, particularly cocoa, having peaked, and there is no significant competition threatening its market dominance [1] - The company is viewed as a strong earnings play, especially among food stocks, which are performing well [1] Leadership Changes - The recent transition from CEO Michele Buck to Tanner, who has a brief tenure at Wendy's, raises concerns about leadership stability, despite Tanner's extensive background at PepsiCo [2] Investment Perspective - While Hershey is acknowledged as a potential investment, there are suggestions that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [3]

Core Insights - The Hershey Company has outperformed Mondelez International nearly 2:1 in 2025, despite both companies facing challenges from rising cocoa prices [1][2] - The management of rising costs and the strength of non-chocolate portfolios will be crucial for both companies as peak candy demand approaches during Halloween and the holidays [2] Group 1: Hershey Company - Hershey's stock was one of the worst performers in 2024 due to higher commodity prices and a change in leadership, with Kirk Tanner replacing Michele Buck [4] - The company has successfully implemented a price increase of approximately 26% on popular products like Reese's and Kit-Kat, demonstrating its ability to pass costs to consumers [5] - Hershey has diversified its product offerings, launching new products like Shaq-A-Licious XL Gummies, which sold over 11 million units, and expanding its portfolio of salty snacks [6][7] Group 2: Mondelez International - Mondelez has also expanded its portfolio beyond chocolate but has not shown the same strong gains as Hershey, relying more on cost-cutting measures to preserve margins [8] - The company's earnings report indicated a 15% year-over-year drop in EPS, compared to Hershey's 3% decline, highlighting Hershey's better performance in passing price hikes to consumers [9] - Analysts suggest that while Mondelez stock may have more upside based on conventional metrics, it needs to prove its ability to pass on higher cocoa prices to consumers [10][11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Recent upgrades for Hershey include a rating increase from Neutral to Outperform by BNP Paribas Exane and a significant upgrade from Goldman Sachs from Sell to Buy, raising its price target to $220 [12] - Analysts expect a 15% gain for Hershey, which is higher than the 13% growth anticipated for Mondelez stock, indicating a more favorable outlook for Hershey [12] - Mondelez currently holds a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, but it is not included in the list of top stocks recommended by leading analysts [13]

and Hershey beating a lawsuit this week claiming it's Reese's Halloween candy isn't spooky enough. So, this suit alleged the company misled consumers who were disappointed the Halloween themed Reese's they bought lacked the decorations shown on the labels. The judge ruling the plaintiffs didn't prove they suffered any economic harm and the subjective belief they overpaid for the candy, well, they didn't support their claims.The proposed class action suit by two Florida residents was seeking at least $5 mill ...