It was just in June that I last talked about Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz ( KSPI ). I've made no secret I'm quite fond of the company, both because of their ability to generate income in Kazakhstan and becauseI’m Jason Ditz and I have 20 years of experience in foreign policy research. My work has appeared in Forbes, Toronto Star, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Providence Journal, Washington Times and the Detroit Free Press, as well as American Conservative Magazine and the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statec ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total Payment Volume (TPV) increased by 21%, revenue grew by 16%, and net income rose by 19% in Q2 2025 [4] - Marketplace GMV increased by 15%, revenue grew by 25%, and net income rose by 13% [5] - Fintech volumes increased by 17%, revenue grew by 21%, and net income rose by 8% [6] - Overall, the company reported strong financial performance despite high interest rates [4][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-grocery GMV grew by 57% year over year, with transactions up by 63% [6] - Payment volumes remained robust, up 14% year on year in Q2 [26] - Marketplace demand was strong, with overall growth of 35% year on year in Q2 [29] - Travel GMV growth was 16% in Q2, supported by international tours [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Smartphone sales declined by 17% year on year in Q2, impacting GMV but not overall volumes [29] - Excluding smartphones, ecommerce growth was up 31% year on year [30] - Growth in beauty and personal care and clothing categories was 63% and 54% respectively [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its grocery business across major cities in Kazakhstan [7] - A new deposit product has shown extraordinary growth, with amounts up by 207% and customer numbers up by 263% [8] - The company is leveraging its payment network to partner with other financial institutions, enhancing transaction capabilities [10] - The strategy includes entering new verticals such as restaurants and domestic tours, aiming for high growth potential [22][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate high interest rates and emphasized the importance of customer engagement [6][9] - The company anticipates that interest rates will eventually decline, benefiting profitability in the fintech segment [38] - Management reiterated that the third quarter has started well and is in line with full-year guidance [42] Other Important Information - The company is on track to complete the acquisition of a banking license, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in Turkey [43][87] - The company plans to balance capital returns to shareholders with ongoing investments in growth opportunities [43][82] Q&A Session Summary Question: What product improvements are being worked on at Hepsie Berada? - The focus is on ensuring existing customers are satisfied with current services while introducing new products [46][47] Question: What are the growth opportunities in Kazakhstan? - The market remains underpenetrated, with specific verticals like clothing and grocery showing high growth rates [50][51] Question: What is the outlook for funding costs and asset quality? - Funding costs are expected to stabilize, and asset quality trends remain stable despite slight increases in NPL ratios [60][64] Question: How will capital deployment be balanced between investments and returns to shareholders? - The company aims to prioritize investments while also considering dividends and share buybacks in the future [82][86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total Payment Volume (TPV) increased by 21%, revenue grew by 16%, and net income rose by 19% in Q2 2025 [4] - Marketplace GMV increased by 15%, revenue grew by 25%, and net income rose by 13% [5] - Fintech volumes increased by 17%, revenue grew by 21%, and net income rose by 8% despite high interest rates [6] - Overall, the company reported strong financial performance with net income growth across all segments [4][6][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-grocery GMV grew by 57% year-over-year, with transactions up by 63% [6] - Payment volumes remained robust, up 14% year-on-year in Q2 [26] - Marketplace demand was strong, with overall growth of 35% year-on-year in Q2 [29] - Travel GMV growth was 16% in Q2, supported by international tours [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The smartphone category saw a decline in sales by 17% year-on-year in Q2, impacting GMV but not overall transaction volumes [29][30] - Other verticals such as beauty and personal care grew by 63% and 54% respectively, indicating strong market demand outside of smartphones [18][78] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its e-grocery business and enhancing its payment infrastructure [7][10] - There is a strategic emphasis on vertical-specific growth, targeting underpenetrated markets such as clothing and travel [52][54] - The introduction of new services, such as domestic tours, aims to promote local tourism and enhance customer engagement [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate high interest rates and anticipated future growth as rates decline [9][82] - The company is optimistic about the recovery of smartphone demand and is implementing services to facilitate transactions [76][79] - Future profitability is expected to improve as the user base grows and interest rates stabilize [82] Other Important Information - The company reported a significant increase in deposits, with a growth of 207% in amounts and 263% in customer numbers for new deposit products [8] - The company is actively working on acquiring a banking license in Turkey, which is expected to enhance its competitive position [44][91] Q&A Session Summary Question: What product improvements are being worked on at Hepsie Berada? - Management highlighted the focus on ensuring existing customers are satisfied with current services and emphasized innovation in delivery and user experience [47][50] Question: How does the company view growth opportunities in Kazakhstan? - Management noted that the market remains underpenetrated, with specific verticals like clothing and travel showing significant growth potential [52][54] Question: What is the outlook for funding costs and asset quality? - Management indicated that funding costs are expected to stabilize, and asset quality remains stable with a slight uptick in NPL ratios [63][66] Question: What is the company's approach to capital deployment in the future? - Management stated that there will be a balance between investments and returning capital to shareholders, with a focus on maintaining a profitable core business [86][90] Question: How will the banking license impact competitive positioning? - Management believes that obtaining the banking license will allow for the introduction of innovative financial services, enhancing the company's market position [91][92]

Financial Performance - Kaspi.kz consolidated revenue increased by 61% YoY to KZT 967501 million in 2Q'25[133] - Kaspi.kz consolidated net income increased by 7% YoY to KZT 258629 million in 2Q'25[133] - The company reiterates its FY 2025 guidance, expecting around 15% net income growth, excluding Türkiye[111] Segment Performance - Payments platform revenue increased by 16% YoY to KZT 161216 million in 2Q'25, with net income up 19% YoY to KZT 105697 million[49, 135] - Marketplace platform revenue increased by 25% YoY to KZT 459088 million in 2Q'25, but net income increased 13% YoY to KZT 70477 million[69, 135] - Fintech platform revenue increased by 21% YoY to KZT 370717 million in 2Q'25, with net income up 8% YoY to KZT 82455 million[88, 135] Key Growth Drivers - E-Grocery GMV grew by 57% YoY in 2Q'25, surpassing 1 million consumers[11, 12] - Advertising revenue on Kaspi.kz increased by 91% YoY in 1H'25[26] - Kaspi Pay TPV from other banks and Alipay increased by 128% since launch[19] Hepsiburada (Türkiye) Performance - Hepsiburada's revenue increased by 23% in 2Q'25[98] - Hepsiburada's EBITDA increased by 42% in 2Q'25[98] - Hepsiburada's net income decreased 39% YoY in 2Q'25[100]

Core Insights - Kaspi.kz will report its financial results for the quarter and half ending June 30, 2025, on August 4, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for 8.00am EST [1] - The company operates a unique two-sided Super App model, which includes Kaspi.kz Super App for consumers and Kaspi Pay Super App for merchants [3][4] - Kaspi.kz acquired a 65.41% stake in Hepsiburada, a leading e-commerce company in Türkiye, in January 2025 [5] Company Overview - Kaspi.kz aims to improve people's lives through innovative mobile products and services [3] - The Super Apps provide access to Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech Platforms, designed to meet everyday needs of users [4] - The company has a large, engaged consumer and merchant base, which contributes to strong top-line growth and a profitable business model [5] Academic Recognition - Harvard Business School has developed two case studies on Kaspi.kz, which are used in its MBA curriculum [6] - The company has been listed on Nasdaq since January 2024 [6]

Group 1 - The article initiates coverage on Kaspi (OTC:KSPI) with a strong buy rating due to its impressive past growth and potential for sustained performance [1] - The author has extensive experience in investment analysis, focusing on deep-discount value plays and underappreciated companies [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of returning value to investors as a key investment philosophy [1] Group 2 - The author holds a beneficial long position in KSPI shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The article is written independently, reflecting the author's personal opinions without external compensation [2] - There is no business relationship with any company mentioned, ensuring an unbiased perspective [2]

Group 1 - The core strength of Kaspi lies in its powerful three-sided network effect and the seamless integration of its services, with Kaspi Pay at the center [1] - Increased usage of the app leads to more merchants joining the Marketplace, creating a positive feedback loop [1] Group 2 - The investment approach focuses on building a concentrated, research-driven portfolio with an emphasis on free cash flow, capital allocation, and downside protection [1] - The investment philosophy is inspired by renowned investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, seeking businesses with durable economics and disciplined leadership [1]

Group 1 - The Value Lab focuses on long-only value investment ideas, aiming for a portfolio yield of approximately 4% and has seen success over the past five years through engagement in international markets [1][2] - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (OTC:KSPI) has reported significant developments related to its newly acquired Hepsiburada business, influenced by political changes in Turkey and macroeconomic factors [2] - The Valkyrie Trading Society consists of analysts who share high conviction investment ideas that are expected to yield non-correlated and outsized returns in the current economic environment, emphasizing a long-only investment strategy [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 21% year on year, while net income rose by 16% [7][37] - The overall performance of the company was within expectations despite some challenges [6][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Payments platform saw a 17% year-on-year growth in transaction volumes, with total payment volume (TPV) growing by 23% [18] - Marketplace GMV grew by 20% year on year, with e-commerce GMV increasing by 23% [21][22] - Fintech origination volumes grew by 18%, but net income growth was muted at 8% due to higher costs [31][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-grocery business experienced a significant growth of 64% in GMV year on year, with active consumers reaching nearly 1 million [9] - The introduction of smartphone registration requirements in Kazakhstan temporarily impacted smartphone demand, reducing GMV growth by approximately 7 percentage points [23][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its fintech offerings, particularly in Turkey, with plans to invest around $300 million [16][17] - The strategy includes acquiring Rabobank to enhance fintech capabilities in Turkey [16][17] - The company aims to leverage high interest rates to grow its deposit base, which is seen as a long-term investment strategy [12][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the high interest rate environment as a challenge but also a potential future tailwind for profitability [40][41] - There is a conservative outlook for GMV growth, now expected to be between 15% to 20% due to macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory changes [38][40] Other Important Information - The company successfully raised €650 million in Eurobonds, marking its first issuance in this market [15][16] - The introduction of a 10% tax on revenue from investments is anticipated to impact net income [41][42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the macro uncertainty in Kazakhstan? - Management indicated that lower oil prices and currency volatility contribute to macro uncertainty, but payment trends are expected to remain resilient [46][47] Question: How has the boycott in Turkey affected near-term outlook? - Management stated that the boycott does not significantly impact long-term outlook, focusing instead on product quality and consumer experience [49][50] Question: What are the implications of the smartphone registration requirement? - Management clarified that the requirement led to increased smartphone prices and a temporary drop in demand, but this is expected to normalize [58][75] Question: How does the company plan to address the boycott-driven drag in Turkey? - Management suggested that this is a question better directed to the Hepsiburada management team, as they will provide updates on their strategies [111] Question: What is the expected impact of higher deposit rates on funding costs? - Management expects an increase in funding costs by 100 to 150 basis points due to higher deposit rates [101][102]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 21% year over year, while net income rose by 16% [7][37] - The overall performance of the company was within expectations, with strong growth in payments and marketplace segments [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Payments segment saw a 17% growth in transaction volumes and a 16% increase in revenue, with net income growing by 21% [18][19] - Marketplace GMV grew by 20% year over year, with revenue up 33% [21][27] - E-grocery business experienced a significant growth of 64% in GMV and 66% in purchases [9] - Fintech origination volumes grew by 18%, with revenue increasing by 8% and net income by 8% [7][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The introduction of smartphone registration requirements in Kazakhstan temporarily impacted smartphone demand, reducing GMV growth by approximately 7 percentage points [22][23] - The high interest rate environment continues to affect consumer behavior and demand for products [8][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its e-grocery business and entering new cities to support growth [9][10] - A strategy to acquire Rabobank in Turkey aims to enhance fintech offerings and expand into the Turkish market [16][17] - The company plans to invest approximately $300 million in its fintech strategy in Turkey [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of payment trends despite macroeconomic uncertainties [46][47] - The guidance for GMV growth was adjusted to 15% to 20% due to the impact of new smartphone regulations and macroeconomic factors [38][40] - Management anticipates that high interest rates will eventually become a tailwind for the business in the medium term [40][42] Other Important Information - The company successfully raised €650 million in Eurobonds, marking its first issuance in this market [15][16] - The introduction of a 10% tax on revenue from investments is expected to impact net income by approximately 200 basis points [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the macro uncertainty in Kazakhstan? - Management noted that lower oil prices and currency volatility contribute to macroeconomic uncertainty, but payment trends are expected to remain resilient [46][47] Question: How has the boycott in Turkey affected your near-term outlook? - Management indicated that the boycott does not significantly change the long-term outlook, focusing instead on product quality and consumer experience [49][50] Question: What are the impacts of the smartphone registration requirement? - Management clarified that the requirement led to increased smartphone prices and a temporary drop in demand, which is expected to normalize in the second half of the year [58][60] Question: How do you plan to address the boycott-driven drag in Turkey? - Management suggested that the response would be better directed towards the Hepsiburada management team, as they will provide updates on their strategies [110] Question: What is the expected impact of the 10% tax on revenue from government securities? - Management confirmed that this tax is expected to remain in place and will have a marginal impact on earnings [64][66]