Core Viewpoint - Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) has performed well since its spin-off from Lennar (LEN), with a gain of approximately 11% since the beginning of the year, although shares have recently declined over 10% from their peak [1] Company Performance - MRP shares have shown a solid performance post-spin-off, gaining about 11% [1] - Despite the overall gain, there has been a recent decline of over 10% from the highest share price [1] Analyst Insights - The analyst has over fifteen years of experience in making contrarian bets based on macro views and stock-specific turnaround stories [1] - The focus is on achieving outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile [1]

Core Insights - Lennar, the second largest homebuilder in America, reported an average price net of incentives for new-builds at $386,000 in Q3 2025, reflecting a decline of 10.2% from $430,000 in Q4 2024 and a 21.4% drop from $491,000 in Q3 2022 [2] Group 1: Company Strategy and Market Position - Lennar has shifted its strategy to prioritize margin over volume, which has allowed it to gain market share while other builders adopted a more conservative approach [3] - The company has maintained volume and grown market share over the past three years despite challenging market conditions, positioning itself strongly for future market normalization [4] Group 2: Pricing Dynamics and Incentives - The decline in Lennar's average selling price is influenced by outright price cuts, a shift towards smaller homes, and significant spending on incentives, particularly mortgage rate buydowns [6] - Incentive spending has increased dramatically, with Lennar spending approximately $12,074 in Q3 2022 compared to about $62,837 per home in Q4 2025 [7] - When accounting for incentives, the typical homebuyer paid around $503,074 in Q3 2022, which decreased to about $448,690 in Q4 2025, marking a 10.8% reduction from the peak quarter [8]

Industry Overview - The U.S. housing market has shown signs of recovery in late 2025, with existing home sales increasing by 0.5% month over month in November to an annualized rate of 4.13 million units, the highest in nine months [4] - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) anticipates a 14% increase in existing home sales for 2026, driven by improved inventory, affordability, and lower mortgage rates [5] - The Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry has underperformed compared to the broader Construction sector over the past six months, but mid to long-term prospects remain promising [2] Company Insights Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) - Century Communities focuses on affordable single-family homes and has a land-light operational model, which positions it well for a rebound as mortgage rates ease [13] - The stock has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and has increased by 7.9% in the past six months, with 2026 sales and EPS estimates expected to rise by 7.2% and 34.2%, respectively [14] D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) - D.R. Horton targets first-time and move-up buyers with affordable single-family homes and has improved operational efficiency [18] - The stock has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and has risen by 14.4% in the past six months, with sales estimates for fiscal 2026 expected to improve by 0.2%, although EPS estimates are projected to decline by 1.2% [19] Lennar Corporation (LEN) - Lennar has maintained substantial new orders and backlog, with home deliveries in Q4 fiscal 2025 increasing by 3.7% year over year [15] - The stock carries a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and has decreased by 2.4% in the past six months, with 2026 sales and EPS estimates expected to improve by 0.2% and 5%, respectively [17]

Core Insights - Lennar Corporation reported a mixed but predominantly negative financial performance, with deliveries increasing by 4% year-over-year, while total revenues declined by 6% compared to the previous year [1][2] - In the home building segment, revenues and average sales prices exceeded expectations, despite experiencing declines of 7% and 10% respectively [1] - The company's gross margin for home building was reported at 17.0%, which is a significant drop of over 500 basis points year-over-year and fell short of expectations, highlighting concerns about profitability [1] Company Overview - Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family and multifamily homes, residential land development, and rental property management for a diverse range of buyers [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lennar (LEN) has faced significant selling pressure, resulting in a 6.8% decline over the past four weeks, but analysts anticipate improved earnings in the near future [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is utilized to determine if LEN is oversold, with a current reading of 29.48 indicating potential exhaustion of selling pressure [2][5] - RSI serves as a momentum oscillator that helps identify price movement reversals, suggesting that LEN may be undervalued due to excessive selling [3] Group 2: Fundamental Indicators - Analysts have raised earnings estimates for LEN by 0.8% over the last 30 days, indicating a consensus for better performance, which typically correlates with price appreciation [7] - LEN holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, further supporting the potential for a turnaround [8]

Core Insights - Market leadership often results in a list of laggards, with several well-known stocks down over 20% in 2025 due to near-term uncertainty and slowing demand [2] - Turnaround investing focuses on identifying companies where expectations have fallen too far, with potential for recovery as market conditions improve [3] Company Summaries Lennar Corporation (LEN) - Shares have declined 20.6% year to date, primarily due to price incentives and mortgage buydowns impacting profitability [5] - The company maintains a strong position with an efficient operating model, disciplined land acquisition, and a technology-driven transformation aimed at enhancing scalability and reducing costs [6][7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a 7.5% increase in fiscal 2027 sales and a 21.3% growth in earnings year over year, with earnings estimates rising from $10.02 to $11.13 [8] Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) - Shares have fallen 23.8% year to date due to delayed customer spending and uneven demand in data centers [10] - Despite short-term challenges, Marvell's long-term prospects remain strong, particularly in custom silicon and networking essential for AI deployments [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate anticipates a 22.4% increase in fiscal 2027 sales and a 25.7% growth in earnings year over year, with earnings estimates increasing from $3.34 to $3.57 [12] Snap Inc. (SNAP) - Shares are down 29.2% year to date, largely due to heavy reliance on advertising revenue amid slowing ad growth [13] - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance user engagement and create new monetization opportunities beyond traditional advertising [14] - A partnership with Perplexity will integrate AI into Snapchat, with expected revenue contributions of $400 million starting in early 2026 [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a 13.4% increase in 2026 sales and a 52.3% growth in earnings year over year, with earnings estimates rising from $0.38 to $0.49 [18]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are evaluating Lennar (LEN) and NVR (NVR) to determine which stock offers better value for investment opportunities in the home builders sector [1] Group 1: Zacks Rank and Earnings Estimates - Lennar has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), while NVR has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating that LEN is likely experiencing a more favorable earnings outlook [3] - The Zacks Rank system emphasizes stocks with positive earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that LEN is positioned for better earnings growth compared to NVR [3] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - LEN has a forward P/E ratio of 12.24, significantly lower than NVR's forward P/E of 17.72, indicating that LEN may be undervalued relative to NVR [5] - The PEG ratio for LEN is 4.70, while NVR's PEG ratio is 10.07, further suggesting that LEN offers better value when considering expected earnings growth [5] - LEN's P/B ratio is 1.29, compared to NVR's P/B of 5.41, reinforcing the notion that LEN is more attractively valued [6] Group 3: Overall Conclusion - Given the stronger estimate revision activity and more favorable valuation metrics, LEN is viewed as the superior investment option for value investors at this time [7]

Group 1 - The market reaction to CPI shelter indicates a significant consensus view, particularly influenced by home builder Lenar, highlighting a 40% inflation in housing prices since 2019 [1] - CarMax reported an 8% decline in car prices, suggesting a connection to the CPI trends and indicating a return to pre-inflation levels [2] - Heating costs for the average home are projected to reach approximately $1,000 this winter, reflecting a 9% increase, which may impact consumer spending [4] Group 2 - Memory prices are on the rise, indicating potential challenges for companies in the semiconductor industry, particularly Micron [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Lennar Corporation is a prominent player in the U.S. home construction and real estate market, facing competition from major companies like D.R. Horton and PulteGroup, with a recent price target set by RBC Capital indicating a potential downside for the stock [1]. Financial Performance - Lennar's stock price is currently at $112.23, having dropped by 4.54%, losing $5.34 in value, with daily fluctuations between $110.02 and $114.98 [3]. - Over the past year, the stock reached a high of $148.11 and a low of $98.42, showcasing significant volatility influenced by market conditions [3]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $28.62 billion, with a trading volume of 9.41 million shares, reflecting strong investor interest [4]. Strategic Insights - The Q4 earnings call held on December 17, 2025, featured key executives and analysts from top financial institutions, providing valuable insights into Lennar's financial performance and strategic direction [2].

Core Viewpoint - The homebuilding sector is facing significant challenges, particularly highlighted by LAR's disappointing earnings report, which has led to a notable decline in its stock price [1][4][10]. Company-Specific Summary - LAR's stock fell over 4% following an earnings miss, reflecting broader struggles in the housing market despite a slight decrease in interest rates [4][5]. - The company's profits decreased to $1.93 per share, down from $46 a year earlier, while revenue was reported at $9.4 billion, a decline from $9.9 billion in the same quarter last year [5][6]. - LAR has implemented incentives such as mortgage rate buy-downs, resulting in a 4% increase in home deliveries, but this has also lowered the average sales price of homes to $386,000 from $430,000 [6][7]. - The company has reduced its starts and sales pace as part of a strategy to boost sales amid ongoing affordability concerns and weak consumer confidence [6][7]. - LAR's forecast for quarterly home sales is between 18,000 and 19,000 signed contracts, missing analysts' expectations of over 20,000 [8][9]. - The projected sales price is expected to decrease further to between $365,000 and $375,000, with gross margins estimated at 15% to 16% [8][9]. Industry Overview - The housing market is struggling to regain stability, with many potential buyers retreating and sellers withdrawing homes from the market [9]. - The overall sentiment in the homebuilding sector is negative, with concerns about rising input costs for materials like copper and aluminum potentially impacting profit margins [13].