Core Insights - Consistent earnings growth is important for company profitability, but earnings acceleration is more effective in driving stock prices higher [1] - Companies like The Kroger Co. (KR), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), and Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB) are currently showing strong earnings acceleration [1] Earnings Acceleration Definition - Earnings acceleration refers to the incremental growth in a company's earnings per share (EPS), specifically when quarter-over-quarter growth rates increase over time [2] Importance of Earnings Acceleration - Unlike earnings growth, which may already be priced into stocks, earnings acceleration can identify stocks that have not yet attracted investor attention, leading to potential price rallies [3] Earnings Growth Trends - An increasing percentage of earnings growth indicates a fundamentally sound company, while stagnant or decelerating growth can signal consolidation or potential price declines [4] Screening Parameters for Earnings Acceleration - The screening process involves identifying stocks where the last two quarter-over-quarter EPS growth rates exceed previous periods' growth rates, with projected growth rates for the upcoming quarter also expected to exceed prior periods [5][6][7] Top Stocks Identified - The screening narrowed down to five stocks, with the top three being: - **Kroger**: A food and drug retailer in the U.S. with an expected earnings growth rate of 6% for the current year [8] - **Lam Research**: A company that designs and manufactures semiconductor processing equipment, with an expected earnings growth rate of 32.8% for the current year [10] - **Limbach Holdings**: A building systems solution company with an expected earnings growth rate of 12% over the next five years [11]

编译 | 华尔街大事件 基于对NAND市场复苏的预期，分析师于2024年10月给予 Lam Research ( NASDAQ: LRCX ) "强力买入" 评级。相信技术升级周期将继续推动 该公司未来的增长。然而，由于 风险逐渐上升，分析师将其评级下调至"持有"，其合理价值为73美元。 4月23日，Lam Research公布了其 2025财年第三季度 业绩，如下图所示，营收增长24.2%，营业利润增长34.7%。强劲增长的动力源于市场对 其系统（包括用于沉积、蚀刻、清洗和其他晶圆制造的设备）的强劲需求。整体系统收入同比增长26.7%，值得关注。 强劲的系统增长反映了市场对NAND技术驱动的系统升级的强劲需求。正如 财报电话会议 中所强调的，DRAM和代工逻辑客户正在积极升级其 现有系统，以适应更先进的NAND技术，并满足对AI计算和GPU的强劲需求。管理层指出，鉴于Lam Research在先进NAND技术领域的强大市 场地位，系统升级可能会推动其未来的增长。 本季度的另一大亮点是管理层对全球晶圆厂设备 (WFE) 支出充满信心，预计2025财年支出约为1000亿美元。尽管地缘政治风险和关税战不断升 级， ...

Group 1 - The analyst had a 'Strong Buy' rating on Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) in October 2024, anticipating a recovery in the NAND market driven by a technology upgrade cycle [1] - The investment strategy focuses on companies in niche markets with strong growth potential, solid management, sound capital allocation, and reasonable valuation [1] - The target annual return for the portfolio is set at 15%, with a diversified holding of 15-20 stocks emphasizing risk management and disciplined trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lam Research Corp. has reported strong earnings, indicating potential growth for the company and the semiconductor sector despite recent challenges in the industry [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Lam Research's revenue reached $4.72 billion, exceeding the estimate of $4.64 billion, representing a 7% increase from the prior quarter and a 24.5% increase year-over-year [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $1.04, beating estimates by $1, which is a 14% increase from the previous quarter and a 35% increase year-over-year [3]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates continued strong momentum in the upcoming June quarter, projecting revenue of $5 billion at the midpoint, with an EPS of $1.20 and a gross margin of 49.5% [4][5]. - The company expects to see a reduction in revenue from China, which currently accounts for 31% of its total revenue, with a potential drop of about $700 million in 2025 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Lam Research does not manufacture semiconductor chips but provides essential equipment for chipmakers, making its performance a key indicator for the sector [4]. - The company has a strategy of maintaining manufacturing capabilities close to its customers, which it claims allows for agility in its supply chain [8]. Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - The current stock price is $71.42, with a 12-month price target of $92.70, indicating a potential upside of 29.79% [7]. - Despite recent declines, analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating, with a consensus price target of $93.23, suggesting a 31% gain potential [10].

Revenue and Income - Revenue for the three months ended March 30, 2025, was $4,720.2 million, an increase of 8% compared to $4,376.0 million for the three months ended December 29, 2024[77]. - Net income for the March 2025 quarter was $1,330.7 million, compared to $1,191.0 million for the December 2024 quarter, reflecting a diluted net income per share increase from $0.92 to $1.03[77]. Gross Margin and Expenses - Gross margin as a percentage of total revenue increased to 49.0% in the March 2025 quarter from 47.4% in the December 2024 quarter, primarily due to favorable changes in customer and product mix[79]. - Gross margin for the quarter ended March 30, 2025, was $2,313.7 million, representing 49.0% of revenue, an increase from 47.4% in the previous quarter[85]. - Research and Development (R&D) expenses for the quarter ended March 30, 2025, were $525.9 million, accounting for 11.1% of revenue, slightly down from 11.3% in the previous quarter[87]. - Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses decreased to $226.0 million in the March 2025 quarter, representing 4.8% of revenue, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter[89]. Revenue Breakdown - Systems revenue for the March 2025 quarter was $3,035.3 million, up from $2,625.6 million in the December 2024 quarter, driven by strengthened investments in the Foundry market segment[83]. - Customer support-related revenue for the March 2025 quarter was $1,684.9 million, slightly down from $1,750.4 million in the December 2024 quarter[83]. Cash and Deferred Revenue - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash decreased to $5.5 billion at the end of the March 2025 quarter from $5.7 billion at the end of the December 2024 quarter, primarily due to $504.0 million in principal payments on debt instruments[80]. - The deferred revenue balance at the end of the March 2025 quarter was $2,010.9 million, a slight decrease from $2,031.6 million at the end of the December 2024 quarter[77]. - Total gross cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash balances were $5.5 billion as of March 30, 2025, down from $5.9 billion as of June 30, 2024[102]. Tax and Financial Agreements - The effective tax rate for the quarter ended March 30, 2025, was 13.4%, up from 11.7% in the previous quarter[96]. - The company entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement in January 2025, increasing the unsecured revolving credit facility from $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion[109]. Share Repurchases and Cash Flow - The company incurred $2,130.0 million in share repurchases during the nine months ended March 30, 2025[102]. - Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended March 30, 2025, was $3,619.1 million, with net income of $3,638.1 million[103]. - Anticipated cash flows from operations are expected to support operations, investments, and dividends for at least the next twelve months[107]. Employee and Market Outlook - Employee headcount as of March 30, 2025, was approximately 18,600, reflecting an increase in employee-related costs due to seasonality and higher headcount[80]. - The company anticipates strong wafer fabrication equipment spending levels in fiscal year 2025, driven by increases in both memory and non-memory market segments[74]. - The company is positioned to leverage technology inflections in the semiconductor industry, including 3D device scaling and advanced packaging chip integration, to drive sustainable growth[74]. Restructuring Charges - No restructuring charges were recorded during the nine months ended March 30, 2025, compared to $57.1 million in the same period of the prior year[92].

证 券 研 究 报 告 LAM Research（LRCX.O）2025Q1（FY25Q3）点评及业绩说明会纪要 2025Q1 业绩符合预期，先进逻辑&NAND 技 术升级带动全年 WFE 提升 ❖ 事项： 2025 年 4 月 24 日，LAM Research 发布 2025Q1（FY25Q3）季度报告，并召开 业绩说明会，2025Q1 实现营业收入 47.20 亿美元（QoQ+7.86%，YoY+24.43%）； non-GAAP 毛利率 49.0%（QoQ+1.5pct，YoY+1.5pct）。（注：以下全文为日历 年时间） ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩情况：2025Q1 公司实现营收 47.20 亿美元（QoQ+7.86%，YoY+24.43%）， 高于业绩指引中值（46.5±3 亿美元）；non-GAAP 毛利率 49.0%（QoQ+1.5pct， YoY+1.5pct），处于前期业绩指引上限（48.0±1%），non-GAAP 毛利率增长得 益于产品组合优化以及贴近客户制造战略带来的效率提升。 2. 营收结构（分业务部门)：1.设备部门：1）存储业务：内存占比为 43%，低 于 2024Q4 的 50 ...

Megacap tech stocks are in rally mode today, including semiconductor concern Nvidia (NVDA). The shares of sector peers Lam Research Corp (NASDAQ:LRCX) and Texas Instruments Inc (NASDAQ:TXN) are also higher after the companies bested top- and bottom-line expectations for the fiscal third and first quarter, respectively.LRCX is up 5.7% to trade at $70.50 at last glance, chipping away at its 20.1% year-to-date deficit. Looking to conquer overhead pressure from the 20-day moving average, the stock is headed for ...

Core Insights - Lam Research (LRCX) reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations [1][2] - The company provided an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, despite recent stock price declines due to broader tech market concerns [3] Financial Performance - LRCX's non-GAAP earnings for Q3 fiscal 2025 were $1.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4%, and reflecting a 33.3% year-over-year increase [2] - Revenues for the same quarter reached $4.72 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate by 1.64% and marking a 24.5% increase from $3.79 billion in the previous year [2] Segment Performance - Systems revenues accounted for $3.04 billion, representing 64.3% of total revenues, which is a 15.6% increase from the previous quarter and a 26.6% increase year-over-year, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.69 billion [4] - Customer Support Business Group revenues were $1.68 billion, making up 35.7% of total revenues, which is a 3.7% decrease from the previous quarter but a 20.5% increase year-over-year [4] Geographic Revenue Breakdown - In Q3, revenue contributions came from China (31%), Korea (24%), and Taiwan (24%), with Japan (10%), the United States (4%), Southeast Asia (4%), and Europe (3%) making up the remainder [5] Operating Metrics - Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 49.0%, up 150 basis points from the previous quarter, while non-GAAP operating margin rose to 32.8%, an increase of 210 basis points [6] - Non-GAAP operating expenses increased to $763 million, a 3.8% rise from $735 million in the prior quarter [6] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of March 30, 2025, Lam Research held $5.46 billion in cash and cash equivalents, down from $5.67 billion [7] - Cash flow from operating activities significantly increased to $1.31 billion, up from $742 million in the previous quarter [7] - The company paid dividends totaling $295.7 million and repurchased shares worth $347 million during the quarter [7] Future Guidance - For Q4 fiscal 2025, Lam Research projects revenues of $5 billion (+/- $300 million), indicating a year-over-year growth of 17.23% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.54 billion [8] - The company expects a non-GAAP gross margin of 49.5% (+/-1%) and a non-GAAP operating margin of 33.5% (+/-1%) [9] - Projected non-GAAP earnings per share for Q4 are $1.20 (+/- $0.10), with a diluted share count of 1.28 billion, compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 96 cents, reflecting an 18.5% year-over-year growth [9]

Market Performance - Nasdaq 100 index increased by over 2%, with Microchip Technology rising by 9.6% and ON Semiconductor by 7.5% [1] - Other notable gainers include Marvell Technology, Analog Devices, Texas Instruments, Atlassian, Lam Research, NXP Semiconductors, AppLovin, Arm Holdings, and others, with increases up to 6.96% [1] - S&P 500 index rose by 1.4%, Nasdaq by 1.98%, and Philadelphia Semiconductor index by 4.6% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Microchip Technology Inc price at $45.96, up by $4.03 [2] - ON Semiconductor Corp price at $39.36, up by $2.73 [2] - Marvell Technology Inc price at $57.51, up by $3.74 [2] - Analog Devices Inc price at $195.61, up by $12.49 [2] - Texas Instruments Inc price at $162.24, up by $10.09 [2] - Atlassian Corp price at $221.16, up by $12.89 [2] - Lam Research Corp price at $70.82, up by $4.09 [2] - NXP Semiconductors NV price at $191.20, up by $10.33 [2] - AppLovin Corp price at $266.10, up by $13.75 [2] - Arm Holdings PLC price at $110.55, up by $5.39 [2] - Other companies like MongoDB, Broadcom, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler also showed significant gains [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for the March quarter was $4.72 billion, an increase of 8% from the prior quarter [25] - Gross margin for the March quarter was 49%, improving from 47.5% in the December quarter [34] - Operating margin in the March quarter was 32.8%, up from 30.7% in the December quarter [36] - Diluted earnings per share came in at $1.04, with a diluted share count of approximately 1.29 billion shares [39] - The company expects revenue for the June quarter to be $5 billion plus or minus $300 million [45] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Memory systems revenue accounted for 43% of total systems revenue, down from 50% in the prior quarter [26] - Foundry systems revenue represented 48% of total systems revenue, up from 35% in the December quarter, marking a new record [29] - DRAM systems revenue was 23% of total systems revenue, down from 26% in the December quarter [28] - Logic and Other systems revenue was 9%, down from 15% in the prior quarter [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The China region accounted for 31% of total revenue, flat from the prior quarter [32] - Taiwan and Korea each represented 24% of revenue in the March quarter, with Taiwan achieving a new record in dollar terms [32] - The customer support business group generated approximately $1.7 billion in revenue for the March quarter, down slightly from the December quarter but up 21% year-over-year [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its served market faster than overall wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) growth, driven by increased semiconductor device complexity [11] - The company plans to gain market share with a strong product portfolio targeting billion-dollar technology inflections [12] - The focus remains on delivering new products, advanced services, and digital transformation initiatives to achieve growth and profitability goals [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains confident in the ability to outperform overall semiconductor industry growth in the coming years [22] - The company is closely monitoring the dynamic tariff and global economic environment but has not seen significant changes in customer plans [10] - Management expects gross margins to expand again in the June quarter [8] Other Important Information - The company allocated $347 million to open market share repurchases and paid $296 million in dividends during the March quarter [38] - Capital expenditures in the March quarter were $288 million, driven by investments in lab expansions and manufacturing growth [43] - The company ended the March quarter with approximately 18,600 full-time employees, an increase of about 300 from the prior quarter [44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of NAND upgrades beyond June - Management sees a significant portion of the industry's bits still needing upgrades, indicating strong momentum for NAND upgrades [54][56] Question: Sustainability of Taiwan revenues - Management confirms that the strong performance in Taiwan is sustainable due to investments in new tooling and technology inflections [60][62] Question: Steps to limit tariff impacts - Management emphasizes the flexibility of their global manufacturing and supply chain operations to mitigate tariff impacts [68][71] Question: Second half revenue expectations - Management indicates that the second half is expected to be first-half weighted due to lost business from restricted Chinese customers [74][76] Question: Gross margin sustainability - Management acknowledges variability in gross margins based on customer and product mix, but does not provide specific guidance on future levels [92][94] Question: Impact of tariffs on gross margin guidance - Management confirms that the impact of tariffs is factored into the gross margin guidance but does not quantify it [155][156]