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大摩半导体设备股评级出炉:应用材料、泛林集团喜迎上调,科磊何以下调?
贝塔投资智库· 2025-09-23 04:00
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has revised its 2026 Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market forecast and adjusted ratings for three key semiconductor equipment stocks, upgrading Applied Materials to "Overweight," Lam Research to "Equal-weight," and downgrading KLA to "Equal-weight" [1][2]. WFE Market Forecast - The global WFE market size forecast for 2026 has been raised from $122 billion (5% YoY growth) to $128 billion (10% YoY growth), primarily driven by the storage equipment sector [2]. - The forecast for DRAM-related WFE has been increased to $34.9 billion, nearing the optimistic expectation of $35 billion, while NAND flash-related WFE is raised to $13.8 billion, slightly below the optimistic forecast of $15 billion [2]. Applied Materials - Applied Materials' rating has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Overweight," with the target price increased from $172 to $209 [2]. - The stock is currently valued 25% lower than Lam Research, with a historical average valuation gap of only 10% since 2023; the new target price suggests a narrowing of this discount to 15% [2]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 has been raised from $9.58 to $10.45, reflecting strong growth potential [2]. Lam Research - Lam Research's rating has been upgraded from "Underweight" to "Equal-weight," with the target price increased from $92 to $125 [3]. - The EPS forecast for 2026 has been adjusted from $5.12 to $5.43, acknowledging a recovery in the storage market [3]. - Despite a predicted 3% decline in WFE demand in the Chinese market, NAND-related WFE demand is expected to grow by 34%, and non-China logic chip WFE demand by 16% [3]. KLA - KLA's rating remains at "Equal-weight," with the EPS forecast for 2026 raised from $37.11 to $39.03, indicating recognition of its strong fundamentals [4]. - However, KLA's valuation is currently 30% higher than that of Applied Materials and Lam Research, raising concerns about the sustainability of its relative performance advantage [4].
这些芯片设备,销量持续攀升
半导体行业观察· 2025-07-31 01:20
Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor device processing industry is experiencing unprecedented changes driven by geopolitical factors rather than end-market demand, with wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) revenue expected to grow despite global overcapacity and low utilization rates [2][5]. Group 1: WFE Market Overview - WFE revenue is projected to reach $140 billion by 2024 and $185 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% from 2024 to 2030 [2]. - The majority of WFE revenue comes from equipment shipments (82%) and services/support (18%) [2]. - By 2024, the leading equipment types will be patterning equipment, followed by deposition, etching, cleaning, metrology, chemical mechanical polishing, ion implantation, and wafer bonding equipment [2]. Group 2: Regional Insights - In 2024, WFE shipment revenue is expected to reach $115 billion, primarily driven by companies based in the United States, followed by regions such as EMEA, Japan, Greater China, and others [5]. - The majority of WFE revenue is generated from chip manufacturers in Greater China, followed by South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States [6]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - Key drivers of technological innovation from 2024 to 2030 include shifts in logic device architecture, advancements in EUV lithography for DRAM, and the increasing complexity of NAND structures [8]. - WFE suppliers are expected to provide not only process hardware but also comprehensive process solutions, adapting to changes in manufacturing nodes [8]. Group 4: Backend Equipment Growth - The semiconductor backend equipment sector is experiencing significant growth due to increasing complexity in semiconductor manufacturing and rising demand from AI, automotive, and high-performance computing (HPC) sectors [12]. - Key segments driving market expansion include chip bonding machines, flip chip bonding, wire bonding, wafer thinning, cutting, and metrology and inspection [12]. Group 5: Supply Chain Transformation - The semiconductor backend equipment supply chain is undergoing transformation due to geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and regulatory changes, prompting major suppliers to diversify geographically [15]. - Leading foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) are increasingly focusing on hybrid bonding technologies, with strategic partnerships and mergers highlighting the strengthening of supply chain integration [15].
SEMI:2025半导体市场两位数增长,AI是关键驱动因素
半导体芯闻· 2025-03-12 10:48
Core Viewpoint - The SEMICON China 2025 event is set to take place in Shanghai, showcasing the growth and significance of the semiconductor industry, with expectations of substantial market recovery and growth in the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - SEMICON China 2025 will open on March 26 at the Shanghai New International Expo Center, featuring an exhibition area of 100,000 square meters, 1,400 exhibitors, and 5,000 booths [1][6]. - The event aims to facilitate product displays, technical exchanges, and trade cooperation across the entire semiconductor industry chain, which includes design, manufacturing, packaging, equipment, materials, photovoltaics, and displays [1][6]. Group 2: Market Growth Projections - Despite a downturn in the semiconductor market in 2023, a recovery is expected in 2024, with global semiconductor industry growth projected to exceed double digits by 2025, reaching a market size of $1 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 10% from 2023 to 2030 [2]. - The Chinese wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market is anticipated to reach $101 billion in 2024 and grow to approximately $108 billion in 2025, with a further acceleration to $122.6 billion by 2026 [2]. Group 3: Segment Insights - In 2024, spending on foundry and logic equipment is expected to remain stable, while DRAM equipment spending is projected to surge by 35% to $19 billion, with a further 10% increase to $21 billion in 2025 due to capacity expansion and HBM investments [3]. - NAND equipment sales are expected to remain weak in 2024 but are forecasted to grow significantly by 48% to $14 billion in 2025 [3]. Group 4: Talent and Sustainability Initiatives - The semiconductor industry faces a talent shortage, and SEMI China is actively promoting talent attraction and retention through initiatives like the SEMI U learning platform, aimed at bridging the talent gap in the global semiconductor industry [3]. - SEMI is also committed to sustainability, with initiatives like the SEMI Forest project, which has planted over 120,000 trees globally, contributing significantly to environmental responsibility [4].