上 市 公 司 商贸零售 2025 年 08 月 22 日 名创优品 (MNSO) ——国内同店恢复正增长，大店+IP 战略持续深化 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 8 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（美元） | 22.17 | | 纳斯达克指数 | 21100.31 | | 52 周最高/最低（美元） | 27.15/12.26 | | 美股市值（亿美元） | 69 | | 流通股（亿股） | 12.4 | | 汇率（美元/人民币） | 7.18 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 13,839 | 16,994 | 21,441 | 25,640 | 29,672 | | 同比增长率（%） | 39.4 | 22.8 | 26.2 | 19. ...

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.33%, S&P 500 futures by 0.28%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.22% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.08%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.05%, France's CAC40 up 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.30% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.31% to $63.72 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.19% to $67.80 per barrel [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Market is focused on Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for future Fed monetary policy [5] - According to CME FedWatch, traders are betting on a 73.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, with at least one more cut expected this year [5] - Analysts warn that if Powell does not confirm or suggest a rate cut, it could lead to significant repricing of bond yields and risk assets [5] Company Performance - Goldman Sachs predicts Powell will not explicitly signal a rate cut in his speech, while Yardeni Research estimates the probability of a September cut at only 40% [6] - HSBC suggests that despite tariffs impacting US corporate profit margins, the rapid adoption of AI could help reduce operational costs by 1%, potentially offsetting 25% of the cost increase from tariffs [6] - UBS indicates that the effective tariff rate in the US has exceeded 18%, with expectations of a stabilization around 15% by mid-2026, suggesting that companies are beginning to pass on tariff costs to consumers [6] Individual Company News - Gold Fields (GFI.US) reported a net profit of $1.02 billion for the first half of the year, doubling from $389 million year-over-year, and announced an interim dividend of 7 Rand ($0.3948) per share [8] - Zoom (ZM.US) achieved its strongest growth in 11 quarters, with enterprise sales up 7% to $730.7 million, exceeding analyst expectations [9] - Ross Stores (ROST.US) reported sales of $5.53 billion for the quarter, a 2% increase year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $1.56, surpassing market expectations [9] - Chinese stocks are mostly up in pre-market trading, with notable gains for Miniso (MNSO.US) up over 8%, NIO (NIO.US) up over 5%, and Pinduoduo (PDD.US) up over 4% [10]

Core Insights - MINISO Group reported a total revenue of 4.97 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.1% [1] - The gross margin for the quarter was 44.3%, an increase of 40 basis points compared to the same period last year [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 690 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.9% [1] Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of $0.29 per ADS, with total share buybacks and dividends for the first half of the year amounting to approximately 1.07 billion yuan [1] - The amount spent on share buybacks in the first half of the year has already exceeded the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] Store Expansion - As of the end of June, MINISO had 4,305 domestic stores, with a net increase of 30 stores in the quarter, and 3,307 overseas stores, with a net increase of 94 stores [1] - The company has successfully implemented its strategy of "opening good stores and large stores," leading to significant improvements in same-store sales growth both domestically and internationally [1] - MINISO has established 11 MINISO LAND stores and 1 MINISO SPACE store in key cities across the country, with the global flagship MINISO LAND store achieving over 100 million yuan in sales within 9 months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, despite a decline in net profit due to losses from its investment in Yonghui Superstores [4][7]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 93.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.1% [4][5]. - Gross profit reached 41.57 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 22.6% [4]. - Operating profit was 15.46 billion RMB, up by 3.4% [4]. - The pre-tax profit was 11.94 billion RMB, down by 21.9% [4]. - Net profit for the period was 9.06 billion RMB, a decrease of 23.1% [4]. - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) was 12.79 billion RMB, showing a growth of 3% [4]. Segment Performance - Revenue from the domestic Miniso brand increased by 11.4%, while overseas revenue grew by 29.4% [5]. - The TOP TOY brand saw a remarkable revenue increase of 73%, indicating strong growth in the trendy toy segment [5][6]. Strategic Investments - The company completed a significant acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores for 6.27 billion RMB, becoming its largest shareholder [7]. - The investment in Yonghui Superstores resulted in a loss of 119 million RMB for the company [7]. - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of 7.12 billion RMB as of June 30, 2025, up from 6.23 billion RMB year-on-year [7]. Debt and Financing - The company's loans and borrowings surged from 4.31 million RMB at the end of 2024 to 5.59 billion RMB by June 30, 2025 [8]. - Interest expenses related to the bank loans for acquiring Yonghui Superstores amounted to 38.47 million RMB [8].

Core Viewpoint - Miniso (09896) reported a strong performance in Q2 with a 23% year-on-year revenue increase to 4.966 billion RMB, exceeding previous guidance and market expectations, indicating positive progress in its operations [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 reached 4.966 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% year-on-year growth [1] - Adjusted net profit increased by 11% year-on-year to 691 million RMB, surpassing market expectations [1] Market and Operational Insights - The company achieved positive same-store sales growth in China and strong performance in the U.S. market [1] - Successful implementation of a large store model and IP-driven product strategies contributed to the positive results [1] Strategic Initiatives - Miniso has ambitious plans to enhance its IP strategy, having successfully developed collaborative IP products like "Gigi Kawaii" [1] - The company is set to launch more proprietary IP products, reflecting its confidence in this strategy [1] - Full-year guidance has been raised, which is seen as encouraging by analysts [1] Analyst Rating - The target price for Miniso has been adjusted to 48.4 HKD, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - Miniso reported a revenue of 9.393 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, while net profit decreased by 23.1% to 906 million RMB [1][2] - The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to 1.278 billion RMB, indicating a positive trend despite the overall profit decline [1][2][8] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 9.393 billion RMB, up from 7.758 billion RMB in the same period of 2024, reflecting a growth of 21.1% [2] - Gross profit rose by 22.6% to 4.157 billion RMB, while operating profit increased by 3.4% to 1.546 billion RMB [2] - The pre-tax profit fell by 21.9% to 1.194 billion RMB, and net profit decreased by 23.1% to 906 million RMB [2] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 11.2% to 2.187 billion RMB [2] Business Segments - The retail brand Miniso in mainland China generated a pre-tax income of 6.558 billion RMB, while overseas markets contributed 3.537 billion RMB [4] - The TOP TOY brand saw a significant revenue increase of 73%, with total store count reaching 293 [4][5] - The growth in TOP TOY is attributed to store expansion and continuous product innovation, positioning it as a potential second growth driver for Miniso [4] Strategic Investments - Miniso completed the acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for 6.27 billion RMB, becoming its largest shareholder [6] - The investment in Yonghui Supermarket resulted in a loss of 119 million RMB for Miniso [7] - Despite the loss, Miniso's cash and cash equivalents increased to 7.115 billion RMB from 6.227 billion RMB year-on-year [7] - Miniso utilized its equity in Yonghui as collateral for bank loans, amounting to approximately 4.308 billion RMB [7]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's second-quarter revenue increased by 23% year-on-year to 4.966 billion RMB, exceeding previous guidance, while adjusted net profit grew by 11% to 691 million RMB, indicating strong performance and positive developments in the market [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Miniso's revenue for the second quarter reached 4.966 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% year-on-year growth [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 691 million RMB, marking an 11% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The performance surpassed market expectations, indicating a recovery and positive momentum for the company [1] Group 2: Market and Strategic Developments - The company has achieved positive same-store sales growth in China and strong performance in the U.S. market [1] - Miniso's successful implementation of a large store model and the effective use of IP-driven products have contributed to its growth [1] - The company is ambitious in its IP strategy, planning to launch more proprietary IP products following the success of collaborations like the "Gigi Kawaii" [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Miniso has raised its full-year guidance, reflecting confidence in its growth strategy and market position [1] - The company is expected to demonstrate stronger returns following a series of successful adjustments [1] - The target price for Miniso has been adjusted to 48.4 HKD, with a "Buy" rating reaffirmed by the analysts [1]

中国经济网北京8月22日讯 名创优品（09896.HK）港股今日收报47.1港元，涨幅20.58%。 （责任编辑：华青剑） ...

Company Overview - Miniso Group Holding Limited is a global retailer offering a wide range of creative home products, having successfully launched two brands, Miniso and TOP TOY, since opening its first store in China in 2013 [2] - In 2021, the total GMV from products sold through Miniso's store network reached approximately RMB 18 billion (USD 2.8 billion), making it the largest private label home goods retailer globally [2] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Miniso reported total revenue of RMB 9.393 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.06% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 906 million, a decrease of 22.57% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at RMB 0.74 [3] - The gross profit margin stood at 44.25%, while the debt-to-asset ratio was 59.1% [1] Stock Performance - On August 22, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.93%, closing at 25,339.14 points, while Miniso's stock price increased by 20.58% to HKD 47.1 per share, with a trading volume of 59.336 million shares and a turnover of HKD 2.726 billion [1] - Over the past month, Miniso's stock has seen a cumulative increase of 12.73%, but it has declined by 15.47% year-to-date, underperforming the Hang Seng Index, which has risen by 25.15% [1] Valuation Metrics - Miniso's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 19.12, ranking 28th in its industry, while the average P/E ratio for the professional retail industry is -3.86, with a median of -0.19 [1] - Comparatively, other companies in the sector have lower P/E ratios, such as Aoji Co., Ltd. at 5.97, Chen Chang International at 6.22, and Bauhaus International at 6.77 [1] Analyst Ratings - Dongwu Securities Co., Ltd. has given Miniso a "Buy" rating, indicating positive sentiment towards the company's future performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso (MNSO.US) shares surged over 8% pre-market, reaching $23.98, while its H-shares rose over 20.5% to HKD 47.1, marking a new high since January this year [1] Financial Performance - For Q2, Miniso reported total revenue of RMB 4.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [1] - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) for the same period was RMB 690 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1] - Gross margin improved by 40 basis points to 44.3% compared to the previous year [1] Sales Growth - The strategy of "opening good stores and large stores" has shown significant results, with notable improvements in same-store sales both in mainland China and overseas [1] - The group achieved positive same-store sales growth, indicating a recovery trend [1] Analyst Ratings - UBS reported that same-store sales growth for Miniso is accelerating in both China and the U.S., driven by a low base effect and strong demand for plush toys [1] - UBS raised its target price for Miniso from $25 to $28, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Bank of America noted that Miniso's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, increasing its H-share target price from HKD 32 to HKD 46.9, upgrading its rating from "Underperform" to "Neutral" [1]