Group 1: Company Overview - Altria's primary business involves selling nicotine products, with cigarettes constituting the majority of its revenue [2] - The company operates within the consumer staples sector, which typically includes products with consistent demand [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Altria experienced a 13.7% year-over-year decline in cigarette volumes in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a continuing downward trend [4] - The company took a $900 million write-down in the first quarter to reduce the carrying value of its investment in NJOY due to a patent lawsuit [6] Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Altria has made multiple attempts to find alternative products to replace cigarettes, but these efforts have resulted in significant financial losses [5][9] - The company previously invested heavily in Juul and Cronos, both of which led to multi-billion-dollar write-downs and ultimately failed to deliver expected returns [8][9] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite a high dividend yield of 6.9%, the underlying business struggles raise concerns about the sustainability of this yield [1][10] - The lack of successful product replacements and ongoing challenges suggest that most investors may find the risk associated with Altria's stock to be unworthy [10]

Group 1 - Altria Group (NYSE: MO) is a major tobacco company that focuses solely on the American market, owning brands like Marlboro which dominates this market [1] - The company spun off Philip Morris International to concentrate on its domestic operations [1] - The analyst expresses a focus on undervalued and disliked companies with strong fundamentals and good cash flows, particularly in sectors like Oil & Gas and consumer goods [1] Group 2 - The analyst has a long-term value investing approach but also engages in deal arbitrage opportunities [1] - There is a noted skepticism towards high-tech businesses and certain consumer goods, with a preference for more traditional products [1] - The analyst does not understand the appeal of investing in cryptocurrencies [1]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is committed to transitioning towards a smoke-free future, with a focus on its oral tobacco portfolio, particularly the on! nicotine pouch brand, which has shown significant growth in shipment volumes and market share [1][2][9] - The company's oral tobacco revenues increased by 0.5% to $654 million in Q1 2025, driven by pricing power despite macroeconomic challenges [2] - Altria faces challenges in the vapor segment, particularly after regulatory issues led to the discontinuation of its NJOY ACE product, but plans to introduce compliant alternatives [3][4] Oral Tobacco Performance - The on! nicotine pouch brand's shipment volumes rose 18% year-over-year, exceeding 39 million cans, and its market share in the oral tobacco category increased by 1.8 percentage points to 8.8% [1][9] - The nicotine pouch market share for on! reached 17.9%, indicating strong consumer loyalty and brand strength despite retail price increases [1] Vapor Segment Challenges - Regulatory setbacks have impacted Altria's vapor products, leading to the discontinuation of NJOY ACE, but the company is working on launching new compliant products to regain market share [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Altria competes with Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco in the smoke-free category, both of which are also focusing on reduced-risk products [5][6][7] - Philip Morris reported a 20.4% increase in net revenues and a 33.1% rise in smoke-free gross profit, with significant growth in its ZYN and VEEV products [6] - British American Tobacco aims for 50 million consumers by 2030 and reported a 2.5% increase in New Category revenues in 2024 [7] Financial Performance and Valuation - Altria's stock has gained 12.5% year-to-date, while the industry has grown by 37.7% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.76X, below the industry average of 15.36X [11] - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 suggest year-over-year growth of 4.9% and 3.3%, respectively, with recent upward revisions [12]

Core Insights - The tobacco sector in 2025 presents two main investment options: Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc., each with distinct strategies and market focuses [1][2] Philip Morris Overview - Philip Morris is leading the transition to reduced-risk products (RRPs) with its flagship product IQOS, which has gained significant traction in international markets, contributing to volume growth and solidifying its leadership in the global RRP segment [3][4] - The acquisition of Swedish Match in 2022 expanded Philip Morris's smoke-free portfolio, with smoke-free products accounting for 42% of total revenues and 44% of gross profit in Q1 2025, reflecting a 15% year-over-year revenue growth in this segment [4][5] - Despite a focus on RRPs, Philip Morris also reported a 3.8% organic revenue growth in its traditional tobacco segment, demonstrating a balanced strategy between legacy products and innovation [5] Altria Overview - Altria has shown resilience against declining cigarette volumes through strong pricing power, with projected adjusted earnings per share for 2025 ranging from $5.30 to $5.45, indicating up to 5% year-over-year growth [10][12] - The company is making progress in the smoke-free market with its on! nicotine pouch product, which saw an 18% year-over-year shipment growth in Q1 2025, capturing significant market share despite higher retail prices [11] - Altria's recent acquisition of NJOY aims to strengthen its position in the e-vapor category, with plans for a relaunch focused on regulatory compliance and product quality [12][13] Valuation and Performance Comparison - Philip Morris trades at a forward P/E of 22.76x, reflecting a premium valuation due to its global presence and smoke-free momentum, while Altria trades at a lower multiple of 10.79x, appealing to value-focused investors [15] - Over the past year, Philip Morris has achieved a 76.1% stock gain, significantly outperforming Altria's 27.1% and the S&P 500's 10.8% return, indicating strong investor confidence in Philip Morris [17] Investor Considerations - Philip Morris is recognized for its leadership in RRPs and innovation, but its success may be largely priced in, with potential regulatory and currency risks [18] - Altria, while facing challenges in cigarette volumes, presents a compelling value proposition with lower valuation metrics and growth potential in smoke-free products and the vapor category [18]

Economic Overview - Consumer confidence index declined to 93 in June, a 5.4-point drop from May's 98.4, and significantly lower than the expected rise to 100 [4][10] - Concerns over job availability and uncertainty regarding President Trump's tariffs contributed to the decline in consumer confidence [5][10] - The labor market differential fell to 11.1 in June from 12.7 in May, marking its lowest point in four years [5] Investment Recommendations - It is advisable to invest in safe-haven defensive stocks from the utility and consumer staples sectors, including Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO), NiSource Inc. (NI), Fortis, Inc. (FTS), Ingredion Incorporated (INGR), and Altria Group, Inc. (MO) [2][10] - These stocks are categorized as low-beta (beta greater than 0 but less than 1) and are expected to provide high dividend yields along with favorable Zacks Ranks [3][10] Company Profiles Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) - Engaged in regulated natural gas distribution and storage, serving approximately 3.3 million customers across eight states [9] - Expected earnings growth rate of 6% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a current dividend yield of 2.22% [11] NiSource Inc. (NI) - Provides natural gas and electricity to around 3.7 million customers in six states, with one of the largest natural gas distribution networks in the U.S. [12] - Expected earnings growth rate of 7.4% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a current dividend yield of 2.76% [13] Fortis, Inc. (FTS) - Operates in the electric and gas utility business, primarily in Canada, the U.S., and the Caribbean [14] - Expected earnings growth rate of 3.4% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a current dividend yield of 3.76% [15] Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) - Specializes in nature-based sweeteners, starches, and nutrition ingredients, serving various sectors [16] - Expected earnings growth rate of 6.1% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a current dividend yield of 2.33% [17] Altria Group, Inc. (MO) - Evolving beyond traditional cigarettes into the smokeless category due to rising health consciousness and regulatory pressures [18] - Expected earnings growth rate of 4.9% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a current dividend yield of 6.81% [19]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Tobacco industry is shifting towards smoke-free alternatives due to increased consumer health awareness and stricter regulations on traditional cigarettes [1][4] - Major companies like Philip Morris International, Altria Group, and Turning Point Brands are investing in reduced-risk products (RRPs) to cater to the demand for healthier nicotine options [1][4] Market Trends - The popularity of smoke-free options, such as heated tobacco and vaping products, is reshaping the industry as consumers seek safer alternatives [4] - Tobacco companies are leveraging strong pricing power to maintain revenues despite declining cigarette sales, as loyal consumers tend to absorb price increases [2][5] Challenges - The industry faces challenges in cigarette sales volumes due to inflation and changing consumer behavior, alongside regulatory restrictions impacting sales and advertising [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Tobacco industry ranks 65, placing it in the top 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [7][8] - The industry has outperformed the broader market, gaining 63.8% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 9.8% increase [10] Valuation - The industry is currently trading at a forward P/E of 15.78X, lower than the S&P 500's 21.89X and the sector's 17.62X [13] Company Highlights - **Altria Group**: Focused on transitioning to a smoke-free future with its oral nicotine pouch brand, on!, and has seen a 29.3% increase in shares over the past year [15][17] - **Philip Morris International**: Leading in RRPs with products like IQOS and ZYN, shares have surged 81% in the past year [20][21] - **Turning Point Brands**: Gaining traction with innovative products and strong demand for smokeless alternatives, shares have skyrocketed 132.8% in the past year [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of tobacco stocks, particularly Altria Group, has been notable in 2025, with shares up nearly 17% and approaching $60, a level not seen since 2017, as investors seek safe-haven stocks during uncertain times [1]. Company Overview - Altria Group, owner of the Marlboro brand, primarily operates in the U.S. market and has faced significant declines in cigarette usage, which is expected to continue, particularly among young adults [3][8]. - The company has invested in diversifying its product offerings, including cannabis, nicotine pouches, cigars, electronic vaping, and alcohol, but has experienced muted success and notable failures, such as the $12.8 billion investment in Juul, which was written down to zero [4][12]. Financial Performance - The majority of Altria's revenue, approximately 88%, still comes from smokables, with new initiatives in vaping and nicotine pouches contributing minimally to overall revenue [5]. - Cigarette volumes for Marlboro declined by 13.3% year-over-year, a significant acceleration compared to historical declines of under 5% annually, indicating a major shift in the industry [8][10]. Dividend and Profitability Risks - Altria's ability to maintain profits has relied on increasing cigarette prices and reducing overhead costs, but this strategy is not sustainable long-term as the majority of its $11.6 billion in annual operating earnings is derived from cigarettes [9][10]. - The company faces risks to its dividend growth, which could be halted or slashed if profits decline without being replaced by new nicotine consumption [9][10]. Debt and Financial Strategy - Altria has accumulated $26 billion in debt, primarily to fund stock repurchases, which has not yet led to a dividend cut but poses risks for the future as the cigarette business deteriorates [14]. - The company has reduced its shares outstanding by about 10% over the last five years, which can benefit dividend per share but is being achieved through increased leverage [13][14]. Investment Outlook - The combination of a highly leveraged balance sheet, significant volume declines, and lack of successful diversification presents a challenging outlook for Altria Group, suggesting that investors should be cautious about purchasing the stock even with its attractive dividend yield [15][16].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of companies that are committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividends [1] - The author has been involved in dividend investing since 2009 and has documented their journey towards financial independence since 2018 [1] - The article highlights the author's role as a contributor to various financial platforms, focusing on dividend growth stocks and occasional growth stocks [1] Group 2 - The author expresses a beneficial long position in the shares of a specific company, indicating a personal investment interest [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets experienced significant volatility in the first half of 2025, contrasting with the smooth rally of the previous two years, primarily due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, inflation fears, and concerns over U.S. AI companies [1] - Recent positive developments in global tariffs, a declining inflation rate, and favorable economic data have led to a recovery in Wall Street, alleviating recession fears [2] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S.-China trade deal remains unfinalized, contributing to ongoing market fluctuations, alongside geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine [3] Consumer Staples Sector - The consumer staples sector is characterized as mature and fundamentally strong, with demand for essential products being relatively immune to economic cycles, making it a defensive investment choice [5][6] - This sector is known for stable earnings and cash flows, providing a safe haven for investors during market volatility [6] Recommended Stocks - Investment in defensive stocks like consumer staples is advised to stabilize portfolios, with five high-dividend paying stocks recommended: Philip Morris International Inc. (PM), The Coca-Cola Co. (KO), Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ), Altria Group Inc. (MO), and Corteva Inc. (CTVA) [4] Company Performance Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - PM anticipates 2025 volume growth, with smoke-free products projected to rise by 12-14%, aiming for substantial smoke-free status by 2030 [10][11][12] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for PM are 8.1% and 13.7%, respectively, with a current dividend yield of 2.94% [13] The Coca-Cola Co. (KO) - Coca-Cola reported its ninth consecutive earnings beat in Q1 2025, driven by broad-based growth and effective execution of its all-weather strategy [14][15] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for KO are 2.5% and 3.1%, respectively, with a current dividend yield of 2.93% [15] Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) - Mondelez achieved 3.1% organic revenue growth in Q1 2025, supported by strategic pricing and strong performance in core categories [16][17] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for MDLZ are 5.3% and -10.1%, respectively, with a current dividend yield of 2.83% [18] Altria Group Inc. (MO) - Altria's first-quarter results were bolstered by pricing power despite weaker volumes, particularly in the smokeable product unit [19][20] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for MO are -1.4% and 5.3%, respectively, with a current dividend yield of 6.92% [21] Corteva Inc. (CTVA) - Corteva operates in agriculture, focusing on seed development and crop protection, with operations across multiple regions [22][23][24] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for CTVA are 2.5% and 16.3%, respectively, with a current dividend yield of 0.92% [25]

Key Takeaways Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is currently trading at an attractive discount compared to its industry peers and the broader market, making it a potential value pick for long-term investors. MO stock trades at a forward 12- month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.81, notably lower than the industry average of 15.73 and the S&P 500's average of 21.85. Backing this valuation, the stock holds a Zacks Value Score of B, underscoring its strong fundamentals and appealing valuation profile. Image Source: ...