Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands and Altria are both considered stable blue chip stocks, but Altria has outperformed Constellation significantly over the past three years, raising questions about future investment potential [1][2]. Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands generates most of its revenue from its beer business, with popular brands like Modelo and Corona, and a smaller portion from wine and spirits [4]. - The company faces three major challenges: declining beer consumption among younger consumers, decreasing sales of lower-end wines, and increased costs due to tariffs on imported Mexican beers [5][6]. - Analysts expect Constellation's revenue to decline from $10.2 billion in 2024 to $9.9 billion in 2027, while its earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% [8]. - Despite a low valuation at 14 times forward earnings and a forward yield of 2.5%, the lack of near-term catalysts makes it an unappealing investment [9]. Altria - Altria primarily generates revenue from its Marlboro cigarettes and has a strong domestic focus, which protects it from tariffs and foreign-exchange issues [10][11]. - The company has been countering declining smoking rates by raising cigarette prices, cutting costs, and expanding its smokeless product portfolio through investments and acquisitions [12]. - Following a setback with its investment in Juul, Altria acquired Njoy for $2.8 billion in 2023, which is expected to boost EPS starting in 2026 [13]. - Analysts predict Altria's revenue will dip slightly from $20.4 billion in 2024 to $20.2 billion in 2027, but its EPS is expected to grow at a steady CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2027 [14][15]. - Altria's stock is considered cheap at 12 times forward earnings, with a substantial forward yield of nearly 7%, making it a more stable investment compared to Constellation [15]. Investment Recommendation - Altria is viewed as the better investment option due to its more stable business model, larger dividend, and lower valuation multiple compared to Constellation Brands [16].

Key Takeaways MO's Q1 2025 pricing strategy drove revenue gains across the Smokeable and Oral Tobacco segments. Strong pricing power helped MO maintain margins despite cigarette volume declines and regulations. MO expects 2025 EPS of $5.30-$5.45, reflecting up to 5% growth from 2024's adjusted base of $5.19.Altria Group, Inc. (MO) has demonstrated remarkable resilience in a challenging operating environment, and a major driver of this strength is its robust pricing strategy. Despite ongoing volume pressur ...

Core Insights - Altria (MO) is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak in the upcoming report, having a history of beating earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 3.35% [1][2] Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, Altria achieved earnings of $1.23 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17 per share, resulting in a surprise of 5.13% [2] - In the previous quarter, Altria was expected to post earnings of $1.27 per share but delivered $1.29 per share, yielding a surprise of 1.57% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Altria, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [5] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have historically produced a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [6] Current Earnings ESP and Outlook - Altria currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.42%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about its near-term earnings potential [8] - Combined with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), this indicates a strong possibility of another earnings beat in the upcoming report, expected on July 30, 2025 [8]

I am focused on growth and dividend income. My personal strategy revolves around setting myself up for an easy retirement by creating a portfolio which focuses on compounding dividend income and growth. Dividends are an intricate part of my strategy as I have structured my portfolio to have monthly dividend income which grows through dividend reinvestment and yearly increases. Feel free to reach out to me on Seeking AlphaAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SLB, TFC, AG ...

帝国品牌(IMBBY.US)同样获得"买入"评级。报告指出，自2020年管理改革以来，其可燃烟草业务在关 键市场份额稳步提升，无烟产品战略开始显现成效，特别是在美国现代口腔产品领域取得突破。尽管公 司资产负债表稳健且现金回报丰厚，当前股价仍处于烟草行业估值洼地。 日本烟草(JAPAY.US)获"持有"评级。Jefferies认为，该公司对新兴市场的战略布局颇具吸引力，全球销 量份额增长印证其核心可燃烟草业务健康状况。旗下全球旗舰品牌在关键发达市场(DM)持续扩大份 额，近期收购的美国折扣品牌市场表现亦优于行业整体水平。 值得关注的是，英美烟草(BTI.US)被明确列为Jefferies烟草行业首选标的。从量化分析维度看，菲利普 莫里斯国际同时斩获Seeking Alpha平台最高量化评分，进一步印证其市场认可度。 智通财经APP获悉，Jefferies周三发布烟草行业研究报告，首次覆盖多家行业龙头并给出评级，其中包 含三个"买入"评级、一个"持有"评级及一个"跑输大盘"评级。由分析师安德烈·安东-伊奥尼塔领衔的团 队指出，烟草行业凭借稳定的增长潜力、防御性资产属性、强劲的现金回报能力及当前仍具吸引力的估 值水 ...

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group's stock is experiencing a significant decline following a negative rating from Jefferies, despite a generally positive market trend [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Altria's stock price fell by 4.1% as of 2:30 p.m. ET, with a maximum decline of 4.5% earlier in the trading session [1]. - Despite the current pullback, Altria's stock has increased approximately 24% over the past year [1]. Group 2: Analyst Coverage - Jefferies initiated coverage on Altria with an underperform rating and set a one-year price target of $50 per share, indicating a potential downside of about 12.5% [3]. - The lead analyst, Edward Mundy, believes that Altria's valuation has become stretched following its recent stock price increase [3]. Group 3: Market Trends - Altria is facing a potential secular decline in smokable tobacco products, with consistent declines in unit sales for cigarettes in recent years [4]. - The company has been able to offset some declines in cigarette unit volumes through price increases [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Altria is focusing on increasing demand for smoke-free products and has seen some recent successes in this area [5]. - The company's current valuation stands at approximately 10.6 times this year's expected earnings, with a dividend yield of around 7.2% [5].

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. (MO) has achieved a 21.2% gain over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Consumer Staples sector's growth of 10.7% and the S&P 500's advance of 6.3% [1] - The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $60.25, just 1.6% below the peak reached on May 7, 2025, indicating strong upward momentum [4] - Altria's strong performance is attributed to robust pricing power in its core combustible tobacco segment, particularly with its flagship brand, Marlboro, which commands a 10.8% net price realization [8][9] Performance Comparison - Altria's stock performance is strong relative to major tobacco players, with Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) surging 51.2%, Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) gaining 28.5%, and British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) increasing by 37% over the same period [3] - The stock's position above key technical benchmarks, including the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggests sustained bullish momentum [4][5] Financial Metrics - Altria repurchased 5.7 million shares and paid $1.7 billion in dividends in the first quarter of 2025, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns [6][12] - The company's forward 12-month P/E ratio is 11.03, which is attractive compared to the industry average of 15.28, positioning Altria as a compelling value opportunity [13][15] Growth Drivers - The Marlboro brand expanded its share of the premium category to 59.3% in the first quarter, supported by advanced Revenue Growth Management tools [9] - Altria's smoke-free product line, particularly the oral nicotine pouch brand on!, saw an 18% increase in shipments, capturing 8.8% of the oral tobacco category and 17.9% of the nicotine pouch segment [10] - The company is addressing regulatory challenges in the e-vapor category and is committed to refining its product pipeline for future market re-entry [11] Investment Outlook - Altria's combination of strong pricing power, growth in smoke-free products, and a proactive approach to regulatory challenges positions it well for long-term performance [18] - The stock is viewed as a solid opportunity for value and income-focused investors, particularly given its discounted valuation and attractive dividend yield [18]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is recognized for its perceived safety in investments, often associated with phrases like "Sleep well at night" and "Like Clockwork" [1] Group 1 - The company is known for its dividends, appealing to long-term investors through Dividend Growth Investing (DGI) and Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRIP) [1] - Altria is also considered a viable option for short-term trading, indicating its versatility in investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The analyst's previous bearish call on Altria Group, Inc. was incorrect, indicating a potential shift in the company's performance or market perception [1] - The focus is on building a portfolio that balances growth potential with strong fundamentals, emphasizing high-quality businesses primarily in the U.S. and Europe [2] - The investment strategy includes considerations of capital allocation and the long-term viability of businesses, aiming for financial independence through thoughtful investing [2] Group 2 - There is no current stock or derivative position in any mentioned companies, and no plans to initiate such positions in the near future [3] - The article expresses personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [3] - Seeking Alpha clarifies that past performance does not guarantee future results and that the views expressed may not represent the platform as a whole [4]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is focusing on its oral nicotine pouch brand on! to enhance its presence in the smoke-free category, achieving over 18% shipment growth in Q1 2025 and increasing its market share to 8.8% [1][7] - The brand on! has captured 17.9% of the nicotine pouch segment, reflecting its strength despite competitive pressures and rising prices [1][7] - Strategic investments, particularly the "It's On!" marketing campaign, have significantly boosted consumer awareness, now exceeding 60% [2] Company Performance - Altria's shipment growth for on! is attributed to effective marketing and the upcoming launch of on! PLUS, targeting a key demographic for expansion [2][3] - The company is well-positioned for future growth through disciplined pricing strategies, brand equity, and planned innovations [3] - Altria's stock has gained 1.5% over the past month, contrasting with a 0.2% decline in the industry [6] Peer Comparison - Philip Morris continues to lead the nicotine pouch market with ZYN, reporting a 63% year-over-year increase in shipments, reaching over 200 million cans in Q1 2025 [4] - Turning Point Brands is also gaining traction with its modern oral products, forecasting nearly 10x year-over-year growth and expanding its sales force [5] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Altria trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.84X, below the industry average of 15.11X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 4.9% for 2025 and 3.3% for 2026 [9]