Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or ...

作者 |Gary-alexander 我在今年2月就对Match集团（NASDAQ: MTCH）发出过看空预警，当时其股价还徘徊在33美元左右。此后该股持续走低，估值倍数倒是随之 改善。值得关注的是，新任CEO斯宾塞·拉斯科夫（互联网行业资深高管，曾任Zillow CEO、Hotwire创始人）正大刀阔斧推进改革，包括裁员 13%的大动作。虽然这些节流措施算得上利好，但付费用户大规模流失的残酷现实仍难以忽视。基于此，我维持对该股的"卖出"评级。 在我看来，问题的核心在于Match集团很可能继续让市场失望。需要提醒的是，该公司在2024年12月的投资者日上曾公布三年增长计划，提出到 2025财年实现4%-6%的年均复合收入增长率，并将调整后运营利润率目标定在39%。但现实情况是...... 在经济下行周期中，消费者对付费产品本就已产生抵触情绪，Match集团实现长期增长目标的难度进一步加大。需要指出的是，该公司4-6%的复 合年增长率目标，建立在Tinder恢复至个位数低段增长（1-3%）、Hinge实现约20%复合年增长率的基础之上。 但公司一季度在这两项指标上均未能达标，而Tinder的运营利润率下降，表明 ...

Core Viewpoint - Match Group reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of 67 cents per share, matching estimates, with a 52.3% increase year-over-year, while revenues of $831 million decreased 3% year-over-year but exceeded estimates by 0.39% [1][10] Financial Performance - Direct revenues were $812.4 million, down 4% year-over-year, while indirect revenues increased 30.8% to $18.7 million, driven by Hinge's strength [2] - Total payers decreased 5% year-over-year to 14.198 million, surpassing estimates by 0.25%, while revenues per payer (RPP) increased 1% to $19.07, lagging estimates by 0.4% [3] - Tinder's direct revenues fell 7% year-over-year to $447.4 million, exceeding estimates by 0.16% [3] - Hinge revenues grew 23% year-over-year to $152.2 million, with payers increasing 19% to 1.697 million and RPP rising 3% to $29.90 [4] - Evergreen and Emerging revenues declined 12% year-over-year to $149.2 million, with payers down 16% to 2.395 million and RPP up 5% to $20.76 [5] Operating Details - Total operating costs and expenses were 79% of revenues, decreasing 2% year-over-year to $658.6 million, with adjusted operating income down 2% to $275 million, representing a 33% margin [6] Balance Sheet - As of March 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $414 million, down from $970.7 million as of December 31, 2024, while long-term debt decreased from $3.8 billion to $3.5 billion [7] - The company repurchased 6.1 million shares for $195 million in the quarter and an additional 3.5 million shares for $100 million in April 2025, with $1.45 billion available under the current repurchase program [8] Guidance - For Q2 2025, revenues are expected to be between $850-$860 million, indicating a 3% to flat year-over-year decline, with adjusted operating income anticipated in the range of $295-$300 million, suggesting a 2-4% decline [9] - For full-year 2025, revenues are projected between $3,375-$3,500 million, implying a 3% year-over-year decline to 1% growth, with adjusted operating income expected between $1,232-$1,278 million [10][11]

Group 1 - The stock market has rebounded sharply from recent lows, but caution is still advised as the economy may be in or approaching a recession [1] - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies and advising startups, providing insights into current industry themes [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of being vigilant despite market rebounds, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [1]

As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 8, 2025 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 2 Page Number Table of Contents PART I FINANCIAL INFORMATION FORM 10-Q ☑ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the Quarterly Period Ended March 31, 2025 Or ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from__________to__________ Commission File No ...

Core Insights - Match Group reported revenue of $831.18 million for the quarter ended March 2025, a decrease of 3.3% year-over-year, with EPS at $0.67 compared to $0.44 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $827.91 million by 0.39%, while EPS met the consensus estimate [1] Financial Performance - Match Group's shares returned +4.1% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11.3% change, and currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [3] - Total payers for Tinder were reported at 9.11 million, slightly above the average estimate of 9.08 million, while total payers reached 14.2 million, close to the 14.16 million estimate [4] - Revenue per payer (RPP) for Tinder was $16.38, slightly below the estimate of $16.39, while Hinge's RPP was $29.90, below the estimated $30.78 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Direct revenue from Tinder was $447.40 million, a decline of 7.1% year-over-year, compared to the estimate of $446.68 million [4] - Total direct revenue was reported at $812.40 million, a decrease of 3.9% year-over-year, against the average estimate of $814.81 million [4] - Indirect revenue showed significant growth, reported at $18.80 million, exceeding the estimate of $13 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 31% [4]

分组1 - Match Group reported quarterly earnings of $0.67 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, and showing an increase from $0.44 per share a year ago [1] - The company posted revenues of $831.18 million for the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.39%, but down from $859.65 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Match Group has exceeded consensus revenue estimates three times [2] 分组2 - The stock has declined approximately 7.1% since the beginning of the year, compared to a 4.3% decline in the S&P 500 [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.83 on revenues of $851.39 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.35 on revenues of $3.45 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Internet - Software is in the top 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Match Group's total revenue for Q1 was $831 million, down 3% year over year, and down 1% year over year on an FX neutral basis [27] - Adjusted operating income (AOI) for the quarter was $275 million, down 2% year over year, representing a margin of 33% [33] - Operating income (OI) was $173 million, down 7% year over year, with an OI margin of 21% [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tinder's direct revenue was $447 million, down 7% year over year, with payers declining 6% to 9.1 million [27][28] - Hinge's direct revenue grew 23% year over year to $152 million, with payers increasing 19% to 1.7 million [28][29] - E and E's direct revenue was $149 million, down 12% year over year, with payers declining 16% to 2.4 million [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tinder's monthly active users (MAUs) declined 9% year over year in Q1 [28] - Match Group Asia's direct revenue was $64 million, down 11% year over year [31] - Across Match Group Asia, payers increased 5% year over year to 1 million [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is evolving from a collection of independently managed brands into a unified product-led organization [8] - A planned 13% reduction in workforce aims to achieve over $100 million in annualized savings [9] - Focus on product innovation and user outcomes, with significant investments in AI and new features [10][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving margin goals while investing for growth despite macroeconomic challenges [38] - The company is prepared to take pricing or merchandising actions to mitigate impacts from potential economic downturns [70] - Management emphasized the importance of trust and safety initiatives to improve user perception and engagement [100] Other Important Information - The company plans to launch new features like AI-enabled discovery and double dating to enhance user experience [14][17] - Management highlighted the importance of reducing operational silos to improve efficiency and speed [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company balancing investment and efficiencies? - Management stated that the cost reductions will allow for reinvestment in international expansion and product development [44] Question: What are the priorities for the company moving forward? - Management emphasized the need to operate as one unified organization and to grow the Tinder audience while supporting Hinge's growth [50] Question: What is the outlook for Tinder's paying user trajectory? - Management does not expect payer trends to grow this year, focusing instead on improving MAU trends through product innovation [77] Question: What is the impact of App Store changes? - Management is encouraged by recent court decisions allowing link outs to web purchases, which could save significant fees [66] Question: How is the overall health of the online dating industry? - Management acknowledged challenges in the industry but believes that innovation and prioritizing user outcomes can drive improvement [100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Match Group's total revenue for Q1 was $831 million, down 3% year over year, and down 1% year over year on a foreign exchange neutral basis [24] - Adjusted operating income (AOI) for the quarter was $275 million, down 2% year over year, representing a margin of 33% [31] - Operating income (OI) was $173 million, down 7% year over year, with a margin of 21% [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tinder's direct revenue was $447 million, down 7% year over year, with payers declining 6% to 9.1 million [24][25] - Hinge's direct revenue increased by 23% year over year to $152 million, with payers growing 19% to 1.7 million [26] - E and E's direct revenue was $149 million, down 12% year over year, with payers declining 16% to 2.4 million [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Match Group Asia's direct revenue was $64 million, down 11% year over year, with payers increasing 5% to 1 million [29][30] - Indirect revenue reached a record high, up 31% year over year, driven by increased spending from top advertisers [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from a collection of independently managed brands to a unified product-led organization to enhance innovation and user outcomes [6][8] - A planned 13% workforce reduction aims to achieve over $100 million in annualized savings, allowing for reinvestment in growth initiatives [7][40] - The focus is on international expansion, with Hinge launching in Brazil and Mexico, and The League entering the Middle East and India [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving margin goals despite macroeconomic challenges, emphasizing a resilient subscription revenue model [35][64] - The company is prepared to take pricing or merchandising actions to mitigate potential impacts from economic downturns [64] - Management highlighted the importance of trust and safety initiatives to improve user perception and engagement [95] Other Important Information - The company plans to maintain its commitment to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends [33] - The restructuring efforts are expected to enhance product execution and accelerate innovation, positioning the company for long-term growth [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company balancing investment and efficiencies? - The company announced deep cuts to create a more nimble organization while reinvesting savings into international expansion and product development [39][40] Question: What are the priorities for the company moving forward? - The CEO emphasized operating as one unified Match Group, growing Tinder's audience, and supporting Hinge's growth in the intentional dating category [42][46] Question: What is the outlook for Tinder's paying user trajectory? - Management does not expect payer trends to grow this year, anticipating continued declines at a stable rate until product innovations yield results [70] Question: How is the company addressing potential macroeconomic impacts? - The company is monitoring early signs of weakening trends and is prepared to adjust pricing and marketing strategies accordingly [64][65] Question: What is the health of the online dating industry? - The online dating category faces challenges primarily due to a lack of innovation, but the company believes it can drive improved momentum through product innovation [95]

Q1 2025 Business Performance - Match Group's total direct revenue was $812.4 million, a decrease of 4% year-over-year[8] - Tinder's direct revenue was $447.4 million, down 7% year-over-year, with 9.107 million payers, a decrease of 6% year-over-year[8] - Hinge's direct revenue was $152.2 million, up 23% year-over-year, with 1.697 million payers, up 19% year-over-year[8] - Evergreen & Emerging brands' direct revenue was $149.2 million, down 12% year-over-year, with 2.395 million payers, down 16% year-over-year[8] - Match Group Asia's direct revenue was $63.7 million, down 11% year-over-year, with 999 thousand payers, up 5% year-over-year[8] Consolidated Financial Highlights - Match Group's total revenue for Q1 2025 was $831.2 million[47] - Match Group's total payers were 14.198 million in Q1 2025[47] - Match Group's revenue per payer (RPP) was $19.07 in Q1 2025[47] - Match Group's operating income was $172.6 million with a 21% margin, while adjusted operating income was $275.2 million with a 33% margin[8]