Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - Shares of nCino (NCNO) have lost 8.3% over the past four weeks, but a hammer chart pattern formed in its last trading session, indicating potential support and a possible trend reversal [1] - The hammer pattern is a technical indicator suggesting a nearing bottom with subsiding selling pressure, often signaling a potential trend reversal when it occurs at the bottom of a downtrend [2][4] - The hammer pattern is characterized by a small candle body with a long lower wick, indicating buying interest after a new low, and can occur on any timeframe [3][4] - While the hammer pattern is a bullish indicator, its strength depends on its placement on the chart and should be used alongside other bullish indicators [5] Fundamental Analysis and Earnings Estimates - Wall Street analysts have shown strong agreement in raising earnings estimates for nCino, enhancing the company's prospects for a trend reversal [2] - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased by 17.2%, indicating analysts' confidence in improved earnings [7] - nCino currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 stocks ranked based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises [8] - Stocks with a Zacks Rank 1 or 2 typically outperform the market, and the rank serves as a reliable timing indicator for identifying improving company prospects [8]

Stock Analysis - nCino (NCNO) has experienced significant selling pressure, declining 8% over the past four weeks, but is now in oversold territory, indicating potential for a trend reversal [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key technical indicator used to identify oversold stocks, with a reading below 30 typically indicating oversold conditions [2] - RSI helps investors identify potential price reversals by measuring the speed and change of price movements, making it useful for spotting stocks that have fallen below their fair value due to unwarranted selling pressure [3] Technical Indicators - nCino's RSI reading of 25.68 suggests that the heavy selling may be exhausting itself, potentially leading to a rebound as the stock seeks to restore equilibrium between supply and demand [5] - While RSI is a valuable tool, it should not be used in isolation for investment decisions due to its limitations [4] Fundamental Analysis - Sell-side analysts covering nCino have shown strong agreement in raising earnings estimates for the current year, with the consensus EPS estimate increasing by 9% over the last 30 days [6] - An upward trend in earnings estimate revisions often translates into near-term price appreciation, further supporting the potential for a turnaround [6] - nCino currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 stocks ranked based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, which is a strong indicator of its potential for a near-term turnaround [7]

Market Overview - The market is showing signs of forming a short-term top, with major intraday reversals observed in many stocks and indexes [1] - Several stocks reached all-time highs but then broke down below weekly lows, indicating potential weakness in the bullish trend [1] Investment Strategy - Increased risk of downside action in the stock market suggests investors should focus on stocks with strong earnings trends [2] - Stocks with the strongest earnings are likely to recover the fastest once the downside action eases [2] Company Focus: nCino (NCNO) - nCino is a software-as-a-service company providing cloud-based software applications to financial institutions globally [3] - The company's nCino Bank Operating System integrates various financial services on a single cloud-based platform [3] Earnings and Growth - nCino has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) in the Internet – Software industry, ranking in the Top 13% of Zacks Industry Rank [4] - Six analysts have increased earnings estimates for the current year, and four have done so for next year [4] - Zacks Consensus Estimates for the current year have risen from 67 cents to 72 cents, and next year's estimates have increased from 85 cents to 87 cents over the last sixty days [4] - Current year earnings growth is projected at 44%, with next year's growth at 21% [5] - Revenue growth forecasts are 13% for the current year and 14% for next year [5] - nCino's earnings growth outperforms the industry average of 25% and the S&P 500's 33% for the current year [5]

Stocks with Buy Ranks and Growth Characteristics - Oddity Tech Ltd (ODD) carries a Zacks Rank 1 and has seen a 6.3% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - Oddity Tech Ltd has a PEG ratio of 1.20 compared to the industry's 2.27 and possesses a Growth Score of B [1] - Construction Partners Inc (ROAD) carries a Zacks Rank 1 and has seen a 10.7% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings over the last 60 days [2] - Construction Partners Inc has a PEG ratio of 1.11 compared to the industry's 1.23 and possesses a Growth Score of B [2] - nCino Inc (NCNO) carries a Zacks Rank 1 and has seen a 7.5% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings over the last 60 days [3] - nCino Inc has a PEG ratio of 2.10 compared to the industry's 2.27 and possesses a Growth Score of B [3]

Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - nCino (NCNO) has experienced significant selling pressure, resulting in an 11.6% decline in stock price over the past four weeks [1] - The stock is currently in oversold territory with an RSI reading of 27.74, indicating potential for a price reversal [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures price movement speed and change, with readings below 30 typically indicating oversold conditions [2] Fundamental Analysis and Earnings Outlook - Sell-side analysts have raised earnings estimates for nCino, leading to a 79.5% increase in consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [4] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises [4] Market Sentiment and Potential Rebound - Wall Street analysts expect nCino to report better earnings than previously predicted, suggesting potential for stock price recovery [1] - The combination of technical indicators (RSI) and fundamental improvements (earnings estimate revisions) points to a potential turnaround for the stock [3][4]

Company Performance - nCino (NASDAQ: NCNO) shares dropped approximately 12.4% on December 5 following the announcement of its Q3 FY2025 financial results [1] Industry Focus - Crude Value Insights provides an investing service and community centered on oil and natural gas, emphasizing cash flow and companies with genuine value and growth potential [1] - Subscribers gain access to a 50+ stock model account, detailed cash flow analyses of E&P firms, and live chat discussions about the sector [2] - The service offers a two-week free trial for new users interested in oil and gas investments [3]

Company Performance - Total revenues for the third quarter were $138.8 million, a 14% increase year-over-year [1] - Subscription revenues grew 14% year-over-year to $119.9 million [1] - Non-GAAP operating margin improved to 20%, up approximately 350 basis points [1] - Record margin of 20.2% achieved, significantly higher than the previous quarter's 14.6% and the mid-point guidance of 15.7% [4] Analyst Actions and Forecasts - Piper Sandler analyst Brent A. Bracelin downgraded nCino to Neutral from Overweight with a price forecast of $38 [1] - 2025 revenue outlook reduced by about $20 million due to lower mortgage and core assumptions, partially offset by FullCircl revenue [2] - FY25 revenue estimates revised down to $539.8 million from $541.5 million, but EPS estimate raised to 72 cents from 69 cents [5] Mortgage Segment - Unexpected churn in the mortgage segment (15% of sales) outweighed a $6 million quarter-over-quarter revenue increase, the largest sequential revenue gain in over two years [3] - Fourth-quarter mortgage segment growth expected to slow to 3.5% from 16% last quarter [5] - Slower growth for a $74 million product category lowers expectations for a recovery next year until mortgage volumes significantly improve [5] Market Reaction - NCNO shares traded lower by 12.10% to $37.36 at the last check Thursday [6]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q3 FY2025 were $138.8M, a 14% YoY increase from $121.9M in Q3 FY2024 [1][3] - Subscription revenues for Q3 FY2025 were $119.9M, up 14% YoY from $104.8M [1][3] - Non-GAAP operating income for Q3 FY2025 was $28.0M, a 38% increase from $20.4M in Q3 FY2024 [3] - Non-GAAP net income attributable to nCino in Q3 FY2025 was $24.4M, up 51% from $16.2M in Q3 FY2024 [3] - Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) as of October 31, 2024, was $1.095B, a 19% increase from $917.1M as of October 31, 2023 [3] Business Highlights - Completed acquisition of FullCircl on November 5, 2024, enhancing onboarding capabilities for financial institutions in EMEA [4] - Signed a multi-solution expansion agreement with a top-40 U.S. bank for Commercial and Small Business Lending, Commercial Pricing & Profitability, Automated Spreading, and Banking Advisor [4] - Extended relationship with a top-5 Australian bank for three years with the addition of Banking Advisor [4] - Tokushima Taisho Bank became nCino's largest customer in Japan, selecting nCino to transform its business lending operations [4] - Signed an expansion agreement with the largest bank in Norway for Commercial Lending, Banking Advisor, Credit Portfolio Management, and ESG reporting [4] Financial Outlook - Q4 FY2025 guidance: Total revenues between $139.5M and $141.5M, subscription revenues between $122.5M and $124.5M, Non-GAAP operating income between $23.25M and $24.25M, and Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $0.18 to $0.19 [6] - FY2025 guidance: Total revenues between $539.0M and $541.0M, subscription revenues between $467.0M and $469.0M, Non-GAAP operating income between $95.0M and $96.0M, and Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $0.72 to $0.73 [7] Industry and Market Position - nCino is a leading provider of intelligent, best-in-class banking solutions, serving over 1,800 customers worldwide, including community banks, credit unions, independent mortgage banks, and large financial entities [9] - The company focuses on digitizing and reengineering business processes to enhance efficiencies and improve banking experiences, integrating AI and actionable insights into its platform [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $138.8 million, a 14% YoY increase [23] - Subscription revenues were $119.9 million, also a 14% YoY increase, representing 86% of total revenues [23] - Mortgage subscription revenues were $20.7 million, a 16% YoY growth, accounting for 17% of subscription revenues [23] - Non-GAAP gross profit was $93.2 million, a 15% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 67.2% compared to 66.5% in Q3 2024 [26] - Non-GAAP operating income was $28 million, a 38% YoY increase, with an operating margin of 20% compared to 17% in Q3 2024 [26] - Non-GAAP net income attributable to nCino was $24.4 million, or $0.21 per diluted share, compared to $16.2 million, or $0.14 per diluted share in Q3 2024 [27] - Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) was $1.095 billion as of October 31, 2024, up 19% YoY [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - US community and regional businesses, as well as US enterprise businesses, had strong sales quarters, both on track to exceed gross bookings targets for the year [7][8] - Mortgage business added 11 new logos in the US, with an average mortgage customer ACV 15% higher than a year ago [10] - Banking Advisor added 11 new customers globally in Q3, with plans to include it in every new deal and renewal [15][16] - EMEA team signed an expansion agreement with the largest bank in Norway and secured the first customer in Luxembourg for a joint commercial and mortgage lending solution [13] Market Data and Key Metrics - US enterprise market saw strength in expansion sales, including a deal with an $80 billion bank, increasing ACV by approximately 15% [9] - International markets showed momentum, with Tokushima Taisho Bank in Japan becoming the largest customer in the region [11][12] - EMEA market benefited from regulatory emphasis, such as the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), driving vendor consolidation [14] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is transitioning to a new pricing framework called the Intelligent Solution Framework, which aligns fees with the assets of financial institutions [30][31] - The acquisition of FullCircl enhances customer onboarding capabilities, particularly in the UK and Europe, with potential to expand the global SAM by $800 million [17][19] - The company is focusing on cross-selling opportunities, particularly with the integration of DocFox and FullCircl, to create a more comprehensive platform [72][75] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the US enterprise market and international growth, particularly in Japan and the Nordics [12][13] - The company expects FullCircl to contribute approximately $4 million to subscription and total revenues in Q4 [34] - Guidance for Q4 2025 includes total revenues of $139.5 million to $141.5 million, with subscription revenues of $122.5 million to $124.5 million [33] - Full-year 2025 guidance expects total revenues of $539 million to $541 million, with subscription revenues of $467 million to $469 million [33] Other Important Information - The company plans to provide an updated KPI framework starting with the Q4 earnings report to offer more transparency into the business [38] - The company is focused on integrating AI and Banking Advisor into its platform, with 11 new Banking Advisor deals signed in Q3 [15][129] Q&A Session Summary Question: Decomposition of Q4 guidance excluding FullCircl contribution [40] - Answer: The Q4 guidance reduction is primarily due to increased mortgage churn and cautious outlook on mortgage volumes despite the Fed rate reduction [42][43] Question: Annualizing FullCircl's $4 million contribution into next year [45] - Answer: The company will provide guidance for next year during the Q4 call [46] Question: Performance of other business lines outside of mortgage in Q4 [49] - Answer: The company signed significant deals internationally and a large enterprise deal in the US, indicating a strong pipeline [50][51] Question: Feedback on the Intelligent Solution Framework [54] - Answer: Customers have provided positive feedback on the new pricing model, which aligns with their success and simplifies the buying experience [55][56] Question: Updates on Banking Advisor customer feedback [64] - Answer: Early adoption of Banking Advisor is progressing well, with 11 new customers added in Q3, and the company is excited about the potential for future skill additions [65][66] Question: Timing for material cross-sell impact from new products [72] - Answer: Cross-sell is already proving successful, with more than 50% of bookings coming from non-commercial products, and the company expects further growth as new products are integrated [74][75] Question: Mortgage churn outlook beyond Q4 [80] - Answer: Mortgage churn has stabilized, with the market showing signs of improvement, though M&A activity remains a factor [82][83] Question: International market performance drivers [90] - Answer: The company sees momentum in Japan and the Nordics, with potential for growth in Spain and other regions, though Germany may require further investment [92][96] Question: RPO strength in Q3 [97] - Answer: The strong RPO growth was driven by a mix of net new business and renewals, reflecting good execution [98] Question: Net 50% bookings target for the year [103] - Answer: The company remains focused on achieving the net 50% bookings target, with Q4 historically being the largest bookings quarter [105] Question: FullCircl acquisition details and growth rate [106] - Answer: FullCircl's $4 million contribution in Q4 is all subscription revenue, with no professional services, and the company will provide more details on growth in future calls [112][115] Question: Mortgage volume increase impact on revenues [118] - Answer: A 20% increase in mortgage lending by customers on volume-based pricing could yield a 10% increase in revenues, though minimums vary by customer [119][123] Question: Drivers for customer spend increase in fiscal 2026 [124] - Answer: Lower interest rates, a resilient economy, and AI integration are expected to drive increased customer spend [125][128] Question: Fiscal 2025 revenue churn expectation [151] - Answer: Revenue churn is expected to remain around 5%, consistent with previous guidance [152] Question: Additional KPIs to be disclosed [153] - Answer: The company will provide an updated KPI framework starting with the Q4 earnings report [154] Question: Banking Advisor's impact on ACV and sales cycles [157] - Answer: Banking Advisor is expected to drive ACV uplift and has not caused elongated sales cycles, with positive feedback from customers [161][163] Question: Implied organic Q4 guidance growth rate [164] - Answer: Excluding M&A, the organic growth rate for Q4 is expected to be in the low double digits [165] Question: Deposit account opening product adoption [169] - Answer: The deposit account opening product is being adopted across the spectrum, including credit unions, community banks, and enterprise banks [170] Question: Impact of the home-builder deal on Q3 [178] - Answer: The home-builder deal contributed to Q3 performance, but the company did not quantify its specific impact [180] Question: M&A as a catalyst for demand [181] - Answer: M&A activity is expected to drive demand as acquiring banks look to streamline their middle and back-office operations [183][184]

Earnings Performance - NCino reported quarterly earnings of $0 21 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0 16 per share, representing a 31 25% earnings surprise [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) increased from $0 14 per share a year ago [1] - Over the last four quarters, NCino has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times [2] Revenue Performance - NCino posted revenues of $138 8 million for the quarter ended October 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1 22% [2] - This represents an increase from year-ago revenues of $121 94 million [2] - The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters [2] Stock Performance - NCino shares have added about 23 4% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 26 8% [4] - The stock's immediate price movement will depend on management's commentary on the earnings call [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate is $0 18 on $143 66 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $0 67 on $541 02 million in revenues for the current fiscal year [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions [6] - The estimate revisions trend for NCino is mixed, translating into a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [7] Industry Outlook - The Internet - Software industry is currently in the top 16% of the 250 plus Zacks industries [9] - The top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1 [9] Peer Comparison - Samsara Inc (IOT) is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0 04 per share in its upcoming report, representing no change from the year-ago quarter [10] - Samsara Inc's revenues are expected to be $310 65 million, up 30 8% from the year-ago quarter [11]