Production and Operations - As of March 31, 2025, the company participated in 11,097 gross (1,133.9 net) producing wells and leased approximately 291,672 net acres, with 85% developed[206] - Average daily production in Q1 2025 was approximately 134,959 Boe per day, a 13% increase compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to recent acquisitions and new wells[208] - The company added 27.3 net wells to production during the three months ended March 31, 2025[208] - In Q1 2025, oil production increased by 11% to 7,081 MBbl, and natural gas production rose by 13% to 30,394 MMcf compared to Q1 2024[228] - The company’s net producing wells increased by 15% to 1,133.9 at the end of Q1 2025, compared to 985.3 at the end of Q1 2024[228] Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 reached $602.1 million, a 52% increase from $396.3 million in Q1 2024, driven by a 12% increase in production volumes[228] - The average realized price for oil in Q1 2025 was $64.92 per Bbl, down 11% from $72.92 per Bbl in Q1 2024[228] - The net average realized gas price in Q1 2025 was $3.86 per Mcf, representing 100% realization relative to NYMEX Henry Hub pricing, compared to $2.47 per Mcf in Q1 2024[216] - Net cash provided by operating activities for Q1 2025 was $407.4 million, up from $392.1 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to higher oil and gas sales driven by increased production volumes[252] - Cash flows used in investing activities decreased to $264.6 million in Q1 2025 from $407.1 million in Q1 2024, reflecting lower acquisition costs[253] Costs and Expenses - The weighted average gross authorization for expenditure (AFE) cost for wells was $10.5 million in Q1 2025, compared to $9.5 million in Q1 2024[217] - Production expenses rose to $114.0 million in Q1 2025, an 8% increase from $105.4 million in Q1 2024, with per Boe costs decreasing to $9.39 from $9.70[234] - General and administrative expenses increased to $14.5 million in Q1 2025, up from $11.4 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to a higher personnel headcount[236] - Interest expense increased to $43.9 million in Q1 2025 from $37.9 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to higher debt levels[238] - Income tax expense surged to $46.8 million in Q1 2025, compared to $2.8 million in Q1 2024, driven by higher taxable income[239] Market Conditions - The crude oil and natural gas industry is cyclical, with commodity prices being inherently volatile, significantly impacting the company's revenues[218] - A decline in oil prices occurred in Q1 2025, with the NYMEX price for oil reaching $59.58 on April 8, 2025, the lowest level since Q2 2021[219] - The average oil price differential to the NYMEX WTI benchmark price was $5.79 per barrel in Q1 2025, up from $3.99 per barrel in Q1 2024[216] - The average NYMEX price for natural gas was $3.87 per MMbtu in Q1 2025, up 84% from $2.10 in Q1 2024, while oil prices decreased by 7% to $71.42 per Bbl[225] Debt and Liquidity - As of March 31, 2025, total debt stood at $2,335.1 million, with $630.0 million drawn from the Revolving Credit Facility[242] - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $0.9 billion, consisting of $0.9 billion in committed borrowing availability and $33.6 million in cash[243] - As of March 31, 2025, the company reported a working capital deficit of $42.7 million, a slight improvement from a deficit of $43.5 million at December 31, 2024[249] Derivatives and Hedging - The company utilizes derivative instruments to hedge future sales prices on a substantial portion of its oil and natural gas production, aiming for predictable cash flows[210] - The company recorded a net gain from commodity derivatives of $21.8 million in Q1 2025, compared to a loss of $138.5 million in Q1 2024[231] - For Q1 2025, the company realized a gain on settled commodity derivatives of $12.1 million, down from $19.1 million in Q1 2024[232] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for drilling and development in Q1 2025 totaled $237.8 million, down from $272.2 million in Q1 2024[256] Accounting Estimates - Critical accounting estimates include impairment testing of natural gas and crude oil production properties, derivative instruments, and income taxes[266] - There were no material changes in critical accounting estimates from those reported in the Annual Report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024[266]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company generated approximately $136 million in free cash flow, up 41% sequentially, with total average daily production at about 135,000 BOE per day, reflecting a 2.5% increase from Q4 2024 [20][21] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record of approximately $435 million, marking a significant performance improvement [21] - The company maintained a low leverage ratio, ending the quarter with net debt reduced by approximately $90 million, resulting in a net debt to LQAEBITDA ratio around 1.3 times [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added 27.3 net wells to production in Q1, with the Permian Basin accounting for 40% of the activity [13] - The first quarter elections saw a 23% increase in lateral lengths compared to last year's average, leading to a 10% decrease in normalized well costs [15] - Gas production increased by 6.5% sequentially and 14% year over year, contributing 42% to the overall production mix [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil prices averaged around $70 per barrel, while gas prices were approximately $3.50 per MMBtu during Q1 [8] - Oil differentials were reported at $5.79 per barrel, above the high end of the guided range, while natural gas realizations were at 100% of benchmark prices [21][22] - The company expects improvements in oil differentials moving forward, maintaining guidance for gas realizations for the remainder of the year [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a flexible capital allocation strategy focused on risk-adjusted returns, balancing growth investments, debt reduction, and share buybacks [11] - NOG aims to leverage downturns for high-return investments, with a proven track record of capital reallocation during pricing resets [9] - The company is actively engaged in over 10 M&A processes, focusing on total returns while being mindful of the balance sheet [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the adaptability of the company's model in response to market volatility, emphasizing the importance of maintaining profitability amid changing commodity prices [6][10] - The outlook for production levels remains stable for 2025, barring significant curtailments or shut-ins, with potential adjustments to CapEx spending based on market conditions [25] - Management expressed optimism about finding creative ways to deploy capital as operators look to reduce capital exposure [18] Other Important Information - The company exited Q1 with over $900 million in liquidity, including $34 million in cash and $870 million available on its revolving credit facility [24] - The CapEx guidance for the year includes $200 million to $300 million in growth capital, with a maintenance level of $850 million to $900 million [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Production cadence outlook for the rest of the year - Management expects production cadence to be lower in Q2 and early Q3, with Q4 anticipated to see the highest production levels [28][30] Question: Service pricing comparison to the start of the year - AFE costs have seen about a 10% decrease, driven by increased lateral lengths, while drilling rates remain sticky [34][38] Question: Impact of oil and gas outlook on potential sellers of non-operated interests - There has been an acceleration in transaction screening, with operators looking to offload non-operated assets due to capital constraints [41][46] Question: Maintenance CapEx estimates for 2026 and 2027 - Maintenance CapEx is expected to remain around $850 million, assuming no changes in drilling costs [56] Question: Production taxes and gas prices relative to full-year guidance - Production taxes are expected to trend back into the guided range as the production mix shifts towards the Permian [60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1, the company generated approximately $136 million in free cash flow and $94 million after dividends, marking a 41% sequential increase in free cash flow [10][23] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record of approximately $435 million for the quarter, reflecting strong operational performance [23] - Total average daily production was approximately 135,000 BOE per day, up 2.5% versus Q4, with year-over-year production increasing by 13% [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added 27.3 net wells to production, with the Permian Basin accounting for 40% of the activity [15] - The first quarter elections saw a 23% increase in lateral lengths compared to last year's average, resulting in a 10% decrease in normalized well costs [17] - Gas production ramped up both sequentially and year-over-year, contributing 42% to the production mix, with a 6.5% increase on a sequential basis and 14% year-over-year [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil differentials averaged $5.79 per barrel for the quarter, above the high end of the guided range, while natural gas realizations were at 100% of benchmark prices [23][24] - The company expects differentials to improve and is comfortable with its guided range of $4.75 to $5.5 for the year [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a flexible capital allocation strategy focused on returns, balancing investments, debt reduction, and share buybacks [13] - The management highlighted the importance of adapting to market conditions and leveraging downturns for high-return investments [10][12] - The company is actively engaged in over 10 M&A processes, focusing on total returns while being mindful of the balance sheet [21][45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the cyclical nature of commodities often leads to pricing resets, creating opportunities for growth and value creation [11][12] - The company remains optimistic about finding creative ways to deploy capital as operators look to trim capital exposure [20][47] - Management indicated that production levels are not expected to change materially in 2025 absent significant curtailments or shut-ins [28] Other Important Information - The company exited the quarter with over $900 million in liquidity, including $34 million in cash and $870 million available on its revolving credit facility [26] - Cash operating costs improved, down nearly $2 per BOE from a year ago, reflecting a diverse and improving asset base [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Production cadence outlook for the rest of the year - Management expects production cadence to be lowest in Q2 and early Q3, with Q4 anticipated to see the highest production levels [30][31] Question: Service pricing comparison to the start of the year - AFE costs have seen about a 10% decrease, driven by increased lateral lengths, while drilling rates remain relatively stable [34][35] Question: Impact of oil and gas outlook on potential sellers of non-operated interests - There has been an acceleration in transaction screening, with operators looking to offload non-operated assets due to capital constraints [41][47] Question: Thoughts on mid-cycle pricing for gas - Management focuses on resilient assets and does not attempt to predict prices, emphasizing the importance of low-cost assets [51][52]

Q1 2025 Highlights - Average daily production reached 135.0 Mboe/d, showing a 2.4% increase QoQ and a 13.0% increase YoY[5] - Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $434.7 million, up 12.3% YoY and 6.9% QoQ[5] - Free Cash Flow surged 151.4% YoY, driven by XCL asset contribution and record production[5] - Shareholder returns totaled approximately $57 million in Q1, through stock repurchases and dividends[5] Operations & Investment Activity - Uinta volumes increased by approximately 15% sequentially and 18% on an Mboe/day basis[5] - NOG closed $4.8 million in Ground Game deals in Q1, adding over 1,000 net acres and ~1.1 net wells[5] - A 2,275 net acre acquisition in Upton County, Texas, was completed for $61.7 million[5] - Net elections increased 35% compared to 2024's quarterly average[23] Financial Position - Net Debt to LQA Adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 1.32x, a decrease of 0.15x QoQ[5] - Over $900 million in available liquidity at quarter-end[5] Guidance - The company anticipates annual production between 130,000 and 135,000 Boe/day[40] - Total budgeted capital expenditures are projected to be between $1.05 billion and $1.2 billion[40]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) despite an increase in revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Northern Oil and Gas is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 12.5% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $557.77 million, indicating a 4.8% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 10.72% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Northern Oil and Gas is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +1.96% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [8]. - Northern Oil and Gas currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating the prediction of an earnings beat despite the positive Earnings ESP [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Northern Oil and Gas was expected to earn $1.13 per share but reported $1.11, resulting in a surprise of -1.77% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Conclusion - While Northern Oil and Gas does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [16].

Financial Performance - NOG paid approximately $42 million in dividends during Q1 2025, with a declared dividend of $0.45 per share, representing a 7% increase over the prior quarterly dividend[8]. - Total shareholder returns, including stock repurchases and dividends, amounted to approximately $57.0 million year-to-date[8]. - Preliminary financial information for Q1 2025 is subject to completion of financial closing procedures and may differ from actual results[10]. Hedging and Derivatives - Unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivatives for Q1 2025 were estimated at $9.0 – $10.0 million, while realized hedge gains were estimated at $11.0 - $12.0 million[2]. - The company has hedged an average of over 50,600 Bbl per day of oil at a swap price averaging over $73.70 and over 197,200 MMBtu per day of natural gas at a swap price averaging over $4.05 for the remainder of 2025[3]. - For Q2 2025, NOG has crude oil swaps totaling 2,877,658 Bbl at an average price of $74.41 and natural gas swaps totaling 8,111,664 MMBtu at an average price of $3.96[4][5]. - The company has significant hedges in place for 2026, including over 25,500 Bbl per day of oil and 155,700 MMBtu per day of natural gas hedged for Q1 2026[3]. - The company has entered into various financial derivative instruments to lock in future commodity prices, enhancing its capital program protection[3]. Share Repurchase - The company repurchased 499,100 shares at an average price of $30.07 during Q1 2025, totaling a year-to-date repurchase value of $15.0 million[8]. Strategic Focus - NOG's strategy focuses on acquiring and investing in non-operated minority working and mineral interests in premier hydrocarbon producing basins within the contiguous United States[9].

Group 1 - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) shares have declined nearly 50% over the past three months, which is a significant drop compared to the overall energy complex prices [2] - Analysts began downgrading NOG stock in October 2024 due to concerns regarding investment opportunities [2] - The Insiders Forum focuses on small and mid-cap stocks that insiders are purchasing, aiming to outperform the Russell 2000 benchmark over time [2]

Core Insights - Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) reported revenue of $545.47 million for the quarter ended December 2024, reflecting a 0.4% increase year-over-year, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $552.72 million, resulting in a surprise of -1.31% [1] - The company's EPS was $1.11, down from $1.61 in the same quarter last year, with an EPS surprise of -1.77% against a consensus estimate of $1.13 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Average Daily Production of Oil was 79,000 BBL/D, exceeding the analyst estimate of 77,538.63 BBL/D [4] - Average Daily Production of Natural Gas and NGLs was 317,000 Mcf/D, also surpassing the estimate of 306,563.9 Mcf/D [4] - Total Net Production reached 12,123 KBOE, compared to the average estimate of 11,884.49 KBOE [4] - Average Sales Price for Oil was $65.40, slightly below the estimate of $66.80 [4] - Net Sales from Oil Sales were $474.94 million, marginally lower than the estimated $475.74 million, but represented a 0.6% increase year-over-year [4] - Net Sales from Natural Gas and NGL Sales were $70.53 million, which is a -1.1% change compared to the year-ago quarter, and above the estimate of $55.69 million [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Northern Oil and Gas have declined by 23.7% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 3.5% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Performance - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of $1.11, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.13, and down from $1.61 in the previous year due to weaker commodity prices and a 23.6% increase in operating expenses [1] - Oil and natural gas sales totaled $545 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $553 million, but increased from $543 million year-over-year, driven by a higher-than-expected average sales price of Natural Gas and NGLs, which exceeded estimates by 17.5% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was $406.6 million, compared to $401.7 million in the year-ago period, beating the estimate of $397.6 million [3] Shareholder Returns - NOG repurchased 693,658 shares at an average price of $36.28 per share in the quarter, totaling 2,535,391 shares repurchased year-to-date at a weighted average price of $37.27, resulting in total shareholder returns of nearly $260 million for the year [4] - The board declared a quarterly cash dividend of 45 cents per share, a 7% increase from the prior quarter, payable on April 30, 2025 [5] Acquisitions and Development - NOG announced a $40 million cash deal to acquire assets in Upton County, TX, including approximately 2,275 net acres in the Midland Basin, expected to finalize within 60 days [6] - The company completed the purchase of Uinta Basin assets from XCL Resources for $511.3 million, adding over 15,800 net acres and around 116 undeveloped locations [17][18] Production and Costs - Fourth-quarter production increased 15% year-over-year to 131,777 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), slightly exceeding the estimate of 131,300 Boe/d [7] - Total operating expenses rose to $382.3 million from $309.5 million year-over-year, driven by increased production expenses and other costs, while lease operating expenses decreased to $9.62 per Boe [11] Capital Expenditures and Guidance - Capital spending for the fourth quarter was reported at $258.9 million, with $197.3 million allocated for organic drilling and completion [12] - For 2025, NOG anticipates annual oil production between 75,000-79,000 barrels per day and total production between 130,000 Boe/d and 135,000 Boe/d, with capital spending expected to be between $1,050 million and $1,200 million [15]

Production and Sales - Net oil production increased to 26,511 MBbl in 2024, up 20% from 22,013 MBbl in 2023, while natural gas production rose to 113,476 MMcf, a 34% increase from 84,342 MMcf[275]. - In 2024, the company reported net production of 26,511 MBbl of oil and 113,476 MMcf of natural gas, representing a 20.5% increase in oil production and a 34.6% increase in natural gas production compared to 2023[332][334]. - Total revenues for 2024 were $2,225.7 million, a slight increase of 2.7% from $2,166.3 million in 2023, driven by a 13% increase in oil, natural gas, and NGL sales[332][334]. - Oil accounted for 88% and 87% of total oil and gas sales in 2024 and 2023, respectively, indicating a strong reliance on oil prices for cash flow stability[352]. Prices and Expenses - Average sales price for oil decreased to $71.59 per Bbl in 2024 from $74.78 per Bbl in 2023, while natural gas prices fell to $2.24 per Mcf from $2.98 per Mcf[275]. - The average realized price per Boe in 2024 was $49.21, down 9.3% from $54.22 in 2023, primarily due to lower average NYMEX oil and natural gas prices[338]. - Total production expenses per Boe were $9.46 in 2024, slightly down from $9.62 in 2023[275]. - Production expenses increased by 24% to $429.8 million in 2024, but on a per Boe basis, they decreased by 2% to $9.46[340]. - The depletion expense for oil and natural gas properties was $736.6 million in 2024, up from $482.3 million in 2023, with a per Boe depletion expense of $16.22[290]. Capital Expenditures and Financing - Total capital expenditures for 2024 were $1.7 billion, down from $1.9 billion in 2023, with drilling and development expenditures at $771.3 million[361]. - The company plans to budget approximately $1.05 billion to $1.20 billion in total planned capital expenditures for 2025[371]. - Net cash provided by financing activities decreased to $266.8 million in 2024 from $684.7 million in 2023, primarily due to increased borrowings and repayments under the Revolving Credit Facility[364]. - As of December 31, 2024, total debt was $2.39 billion, including $690 million under the Revolving Credit Facility and $1.7 billion in various senior notes[350]. - The company expects to fund planned capital expenditures through cash generated from operations and, if necessary, borrowings under the Revolving Credit Facility[371]. Shareholder Activities - The company repurchased 2,535,391 shares of common stock for $95.4 million in 2024, averaging $37.27 per share[349]. - The company repurchased 2,535,391 shares of common stock at a total cost of $95.4 million during the year ended December 31, 2024[372]. Risk Management - The company has entered into derivatives contracts to hedge commodity price risk on a portion of future expected oil and natural gas production[329]. - The company hedged approximately 73% of crude oil production and 63% of natural gas production in 2024, compared to 65% and 64% in 2023, respectively[352]. - The company uses derivative instruments to manage market risks from fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices, with various contracts in place for 2025 and 2026[388][397][399]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had open crude oil derivative contracts totaling 12,776 MBbls for 2025, with a weighted average price of approximately $73.75 per Bbl[397]. - The company had open natural gas derivative contracts totaling 16,410,000 MMBTU for 2025, with a weighted average price of approximately $3.52 per MMBTU[399]. Financial Performance - Interest expense rose to $157.7 million in 2024, up from $135.7 million in 2023, primarily due to increased debt levels for acquisition activities[345]. - Income tax expense for 2024 was $160.5 million, with an effective tax rate of 23.6%, significantly higher than the 7.8% effective tax rate in 2023[347]. - Net cash provided by operating activities increased to $1.4 billion in 2024 from $1.2 billion in 2023, driven by higher production volumes[360]. - Working capital deficit increased to $43.5 million in 2024 from a surplus of $123.6 million in 2023, with current liabilities rising by $158.5 million[356]. Reserves and Assets - The company holds approximately 292,500 net acres in the U.S., with 84% of total acreage developed as of December 31, 2024[281]. - Approximately 27% of the company's proved oil and gas reserve volumes are categorized as proved undeveloped reserves[380]. - The present value of future net cash flows from proved oil and natural gas reserves is subject to fluctuations based on oil and gas prices, which can significantly impact the company's financial condition[393]. - The company’s estimates of proved reserves quantities were prepared in accordance with SEC rules, audited by independent reserve engineers[382]. Interest Rate Management - The company’s long-term debt as of December 31, 2024, included both fixed and floating interest rates, with the Revolving Credit Facility having a floating rate[402]. - The company may use interest rate swaps to convert a portion of its variable rate indebtedness to fixed rate indebtedness[403]. - A 1% increase in short-term interest rates on the floating-rate debt outstanding as of December 31, 2024, would result in approximately $6.9 million in additional annual interest expense[405].