Core Insights - Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.03, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 cents, driven by strong production despite a decline from the previous year's adjusted profit of $1.40 due to lower oil prices and a significant increase in operating expenses [1][2] Financial Performance - Quarterly sales amounted to $482.2 million, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $506 million and down from $513.5 million year-over-year, primarily due to decreased oil and gas sales [2] - The company declared a cash dividend of 45 cents per share, payable on January 30, 2026, to shareholders on record as of December 30, 2025 [2][9] - Free cash flow for the quarter was reported at $118.9 million, with cash and cash equivalents at $31.6 million as of September 30, 2025 [10][9] Production and Sales - Third-quarter production increased by 8% year-over-year to 131,054 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), slightly surpassing estimates [4] - Oil volume was 72,348 Boe/d, up 2% year-over-year, while natural gas production rose by 15% to 352,250 thousand cubic feet per day [4] - The average sales price for crude oil was $61.08 per barrel, a 15% decrease from the prior year, but above expectations [5] Costs and Expenses - Total operating expenses surged to $682.4 million from $319.7 million in the previous year, driven by increased production expenses and other costs, exceeding estimates [6] - Capital expenditures for the quarter were reported at $272 million, with significant allocations for drilling and completion activities [7][8] Strategic Initiatives - The company completed 22 ground-game deals, adding over 2,500 net acres and 5.8 net wells during the quarter [3][9] - NOG anticipates a stronger production outlook for 2025, raising its total production range to 132,500-134,000 Boe/d [11] - Capital expenditures are expected to tighten to a range of $950 million to $1.025 billion, indicating a more focused allocation plan [12] Cost Guidance - Production expenses are projected to increase to $9.40-$9.75 per Boe, while production taxes are estimated at 7-8% [13]

Production and Operations - As of September 30, 2025, the company participated in 11,469 gross (1,174.2 net) producing wells and leased approximately 296,108 net acres, with 84% developed[228]. - Average daily production in Q3 2025 was approximately 131,054 Boe per day, an 8% increase compared to Q3 2024, driven by recent acquisitions and new wells[230]. - The company added 16.5 and 74.7 net wells to production during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, respectively[230]. - Approximately 55% of the average daily production in Q3 2025 was oil, indicating a strong focus on oil production[230]. - In Q3 2025, oil production increased by 2% to 6,656 MBbl, while natural gas production rose by 15% to 32,407 MMcf, contributing to an overall production increase of 8% to 12,057 MBoe compared to Q3 2024[251]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, net production of oil was 6,656 MBbl, a 2% increase from 6,524 MBbl in 2024, while natural gas production rose by 15% to 32,407 MMcf[251]. - In the first nine months of 2025, net production of oil increased by 8% to 20,738 MBbl, and natural gas production rose by 12% to 94,004 MMcf, resulting in a total production increase of 9% to 36,405 MBoe compared to the same period in 2024[265]. Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $556.6 million, a decrease of 26% from $753.6 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to a 12% drop in average realized prices[252]. - Total revenues for the first nine months of 2025 were $1,865.5 million, a 9% increase from $1,710.8 million in 2024, driven by a 102% increase in natural gas and NGL sales[265]. - Oil sales decreased by 11% to $1,262.9 million, while the average sales price for oil fell by 17% to $61.72 per Bbl[265]. - The company recorded a legal settlement of approximately $81.7 million, which, if excluded, would have resulted in a 3.4% decline in oil and natural gas sales due to an 11% decrease in realized prices[266][267]. - The company reported a net gain of $70.8 million from commodity derivatives in the third quarter of 2025, down from a gain of $238.2 million in the same quarter of 2024[254]. - The company achieved a net gain from commodity derivatives of $221.4 million in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $96.2 million in the same period of 2024[269]. Expenses and Charges - The company recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $318.7 million and $434.3 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, respectively, due to declining average commodity prices[234]. - Production expenses increased by 11% to $118.3 million in Q3 2025, with per unit costs rising to $9.81 per Boe from $9.54 per Boe in Q3 2024[257]. - General and administrative expenses rose to $14.1 million in Q3 2025, or $1.17 per Boe, compared to $10.0 million, or $0.89 per Boe, in Q3 2024[259]. - Production taxes increased significantly to $28.7 million in Q3 2025, representing 5.9% of oil and natural gas sales, compared to 2.9% in Q3 2024[258]. - The company incurred a non-cash impairment charge of $434.3 million in the first nine months of 2025, compared to no impairment in the same period of 2024[277]. - Interest expense rose to $43.0 million in Q3 2025, up from $36.8 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased debt from recent acquisitions[262]. Debt and Liquidity - As of September 30, 2025, total debt was $2.4 billion, with total liquidity of $1.2 billion, including $1.1 billion available under the Revolving Credit Facility[283][284]. - The company reported a working capital surplus of $47.1 million, a significant improvement from a deficit of $43.5 million at December 31, 2024[290]. - The Revolving Credit Facility had a borrowing base of $1.8 billion and an elected commitment amount of $1.6 billion as of September 30, 2025, with $459.0 million in borrowings outstanding[301]. Capital Expenditures and Investments - The company incurred capitalized costs of $899.0 million for oil and natural gas properties during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, with actual cash spending amounting to $943.7 million[295]. - The company’s drilling and development capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $706.4 million, an increase from $631.0 million in 2024[297]. - Total cash used in investing activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $944.4 million, a decrease from $1,012.1 million in the same period of 2024, attributed to prior acquisitions[294]. Hedging and Risk Management - The company has entered into derivatives contracts to hedge commodity price risk, with a net asset of $35.5 million as of September 30, 2025, reflecting a change of $92.7 million from a net liability at the end of 2024[256]. - The company hedged approximately 77% of its crude oil production and 60% of its natural gas production to mitigate commodity price volatility[286].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $387.1 million, with free cash flow of $118.9 million, marking the 23rd consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow, totaling over $1.9 billion during this period [16] - The company reported a net loss of $129 million, reflecting a non-cash impairment charge of $319 million [16] - Oil production averaged approximately 72,000 barrels per day, up 2% from Q3 2024 but down 6% sequentially, while gas production reached record volumes of approximately 352 MMCF per day, up 15% from Q3 2024 [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total average daily production for Q3 2025 was approximately 131,000 BOE per day, up 8% year-over-year but down 2% from Q2 2025 [14][15] - The company increased its annual production guidance to a range of 132,500-134,000 BOE per day due to expected net well additions in Q4 [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Permian Basin accounted for about two-thirds of organic activity, with the Williston and Appalachia making up the remainder [8] - The company has seen a more balanced DNC list, with the Permian now representing 40% of wells in process, while Appalachia, Williston, and Uinta each account for roughly 20% [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on disciplined capital allocation, prioritizing long-term value creation over growth [4][5] - Recent acquisitions, including a minerals and royalty deal, are aimed at adding low-risk assets that are resilient to short-term commodity market fluctuations [5][11] - The company is actively managing risks such as commodity exposure through a well-structured hedge program [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the stability of the business and the potential for growth in the energy sector, emphasizing the importance of being return-driven [4][6] - The outlook for 2026 is expected to be stable, with potential growth in gas production, while oil activity remains flat [21][22] Other Important Information - The company has tightened its full-year CapEx guidance to a range of $950 million-$1.025 billion, with $272 million spent in Q3 2025 [17][18] - Liquidity at the end of the quarter was approximately $1.2 billion, consisting of $32 million in cash and over $1.1 billion available on a revolving credit facility [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for 2026 - Management indicated that the outlook for 2026 is stable, with expectations of maintaining similar oil volumes and substantial gas growth [21][22] Question: Update on Q4 well completions - Management confirmed that they are on track with well completions, with many late Q3 wells expected to contribute significantly to Q4 production [26][27] Question: Comparison of current M&A activity to previous years - Management noted that the current M&A landscape is broader and more diverse than in previous years, with opportunities across multiple basins [28][29] Question: Impact of oil and gas prices on activity - Management stated that oil activity remains stable while gas activity is growing, with no imminent changes expected due to current price levels [31][32] Question: Continued build in wells in progress - Management indicated that the number of wells in progress is expected to remain stable unless there is a significant change in commodity prices [45][46]

Financial Performance - Q3 2025 Free Cash Flow was $118.9 million[6] - Average daily production reached 1311 Mboe/d, a year-over-year increase of 8%, but a sequential decrease of 2%[6] - Adjusted EBITDA was $387.1 million, down 6% year-over-year and 12% quarter-over-quarter[6] - Adjusted ROCE was 149%, lower due to pricing[6] - Net Debt to LTM Adj EBITDA ratio was approximately 14x[6] Operational Highlights - Gas volumes increased by 15% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter[11] - Appalachian volumes reached a record 1359 MMcf per day, a 10% increase quarter-over-quarter[11] - Closed $59.8 million in Ground Game acquisitions, adding over 2,500 net acres and approximately 5.8 net wells[11] - Acquired royalty and mineral interests in Utah for $98.3 million in cash, representing approximately 1,000 net royalty acres[11] Capital Management and Liquidity - Issued $725.0 million of 7.875% notes maturing in 2033[11] - Over $1.2 billion of available liquidity at quarter-end[11] - Renewed revolving credit facility, extending maturity to 2030[11] 2025 Guidance - Annual production guidance updated to 132,500 – 134,000 Boe/day[40] - Annual oil production guidance updated to 75,000 – 76,500 Bbl/day[40] - Total budgeted capital expenditures narrowed to $950 - $1,025 million[40]

Core Insights - Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) reported quarterly earnings of $1.03 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.82 per share, but down from $1.4 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +25.61% [1] - The company posted revenues of $482.24 million for the quarter ended September 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.76% and down from $513.54 million year-over-year [2] - Northern Oil and Gas shares have declined approximately 44.9% year-to-date, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 15.6% [3] Earnings Outlook - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the next quarter is $0.91 on revenues of $531.47 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $4.14 on revenues of $2.24 billion [7] Industry Context - The Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States is in the bottom 21% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors or through tools like the Zacks Rank [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) is a significant entity in the U.S. oil and gas sector, recognized for its strategic acquisitions and operational efficiency, with upcoming earnings expected to be closely monitored by the market [1] Financial Performance - In the most recent quarter, NOG reported earnings of $1.37 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.87 per share, indicating a strong performance trend [2] - Previous quarter earnings were also robust, with $1.33 per share against an anticipated $1.12, showcasing NOG's ability to exceed market expectations [2] - Analysts predict a decline in earnings for the quarter ending September 2025, primarily due to lower revenues [2] Valuation Metrics - NOG's financial metrics indicate a strong position, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 3.3, suggesting a low valuation relative to earnings [3] - The company's price-to-sales ratio is about 0.9, and the enterprise value to sales ratio is approximately 1.95, reflecting favorable valuation metrics [3] - An earnings yield of around 30.3% indicates substantial return potential relative to share price [3] - The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.98, and the current ratio is approximately 1.21, demonstrating a balanced approach to leveraging debt and maintaining liquidity [3] Future Outlook - The upcoming earnings report and management discussion will be critical for assessing the sustainability of price changes and future earnings projections for NOG [4] - Investors and analysts are eager to determine if NOG can maintain its trend of exceeding expectations or if the anticipated earnings decline will occur [4]

Core Insights - Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters, with an average surprise of 38.11% [2][3] - The company reported earnings of $1.37 per share for the last quarter, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.87 per share, resulting in a surprise of 57.47% [3] - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated on November 6, 2025, with a positive Earnings ESP of +1.83%, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts regarding its near-term earnings potential [8] Earnings Performance - In the previous quarter, Northern Oil and Gas was expected to earn $1.12 per share but delivered $1.33 per share, achieving a surprise of 18.75% [3] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data indicating that such combinations lead to positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [5][6] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7] - A positive Earnings ESP indicates that analysts have become more optimistic about the company's earnings outlook, enhancing the predictive power of the metric [8]

Acquisition and Production - NOG closed a bolt-on acquisition of royalty and mineral interests for $98.3 million, adding approximately 1,000 net royalty acres and over 400 gross locations[5][7]. - Average production for the acquired properties is expected to be around 900 boe per day, with over 85% being oil, and steady production growth anticipated over multiple years[6]. - Ground game transactions in Q3 included $59.8 million in acquisition costs, adding over 2,500 net acres and 5.8 net wells across four basins[9][11]. - Well performance has exceeded expectations across all active basins, contributing to increased production guidance and low-breakeven momentum[12][13]. - NOG is increasing annual production guidance to 75,000 – 76,500 Bopd for oil and 132,500 – 134,000 Boepd for total volumes[16]. Financial Performance - NOG recorded unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivatives of approximately $15.4 million and realized hedge gains of about $55.4 million in Q3[17]. - The acquisition is expected to be accretive to key financial metrics, including earnings per share and free cash flow over a multi-year period[7]. - The company expects total capital expenditures of approximately $272 million for Q3, tightening annual capital expenditure guidance to $950 – $1,025 million[15][16]. - NOG expects to record a non-cash impairment charge of $310 to $330 million in Q3 2025 due to lower average oil prices[29]. Future Outlook and Risks - The company has hedged over 50,000 barrels per day of oil for Q4 2025 and over 48,000 barrels per day for Q1 2026, ensuring price protection for future production[18]. - Forward-looking statements regarding NOG's financial position and business strategy are subject to risks and uncertainties, including changes in crude oil and natural gas prices[33]. - NOG does not undertake any duty to update or revise forward-looking statements except as required by federal securities laws[34]. - The company faces risks related to the pace of drilling and completions activity on its properties and those pending acquisition[33]. - NOG's actual results may differ materially from estimates due to final adjustments and other developments after the release date[31]. - The company is subject to various factors that could affect its operations, including economic conditions and regulatory requirements[33]. - NOG's management considers its expectations and assumptions about future events to be reasonable, but they are inherently subject to significant risks[34]. Investor Relations - The company has a Vice President of Investor Relations, Evelyn Leon Infurna, for investor inquiries[34].

Core Insights - The article promotes a free two-week trial for the investment group Distressed Value Investing, which offers exclusive research and access to a portfolio of over 1,000 reports on more than 100 companies [1]. Group 1 - The investment group Distressed Value Investing focuses on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector [2]. - Aaron Chow, the founder of Distressed Value Investing, has over 15 years of analytical experience and previously co-founded a mobile gaming company that was acquired by PENN Entertainment [2]. - The article mentions that Aaron Chow has designed in-game economic models for mobile apps with over 30 million combined installs [2].

Group 1 - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) experienced a share price decline of 9.47% from September 26 to October 3, 2025, making it one of the worst-performing energy stocks during that week [1][2] - The decline in NOG's stock price is attributed to a nearly 8% drop in WTI crude oil prices, reaching a four-month low, influenced by expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ and concerns over a potential US government shutdown [3] - NOG recently issued $725 million in 7.875% Senior Notes due in 2033, with interest payments starting in April next year, and accepted nearly $685 million of its 8.125% Senior Notes due 2028 in a tender offer [4]