Wall Street analysts expect Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) to post quarterly earnings of $2.08 per share in its upcoming report, which indicates a year-over-year increase of 16.9%. Revenues are expected to be $1.98 billion, down 27% from the year-ago quarter.Over the last 30 days, there has been an upward revision of 4.6% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course ...

Core Viewpoint - Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings for Q2 2025, with a projected earnings per share of $2.08, reflecting a 16.9% rise from the previous year, despite a decline in revenue anticipated at $1.98 billion, a decrease of 27% year-over-year [1][2][8]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTRS' second-quarter earnings has been revised upward to $2.08 per share, indicating a 16.9% increase from the year-ago reported number [2]. - The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.98 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 27% [2]. - NTRS is projected to experience a positive earnings surprise history, with an average positive surprise of 7.40% over the last four quarters [2]. Group 2: Net Interest Income and Loans - NTRS' net interest income (NII) is expected to be $576.5 million, reflecting a 1.5% sequential increase, supported by stable funding costs and loan growth [3][8]. - The lending scenario has shown solid demand for loans during the quarter, contributing to the growth in average interest-earning assets, estimated at $139.2 billion, a nearly 1% rise from the prior quarter [4][5]. Group 3: Non-Interest Income and Fees - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fee income is pegged at $1.4 billion, indicating a 2.3% increase from the prior quarter [9]. - Custody and fund administration fees are estimated at $464 million, indicating a 2.4% sequential rise, while investment management fees are expected to be $156 million, reflecting a 2.3% increase [6][7]. Group 4: Expenses and Asset Quality - Northern Trust's expenses are anticipated to be high due to increased compensation and investments in equipment and software development [9]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets is pegged at $74.6 million, indicating a 2.1% rise on a sequential basis, as the company prepares for potential bad loans amid economic uncertainties [10].

Core Insights - Three stocks with strong momentum and buy rankings are highlighted: Northern Trust, State Street, and Cadence Bank [1][2][3][4] Company Summaries - **Northern Trust (NTRS)**: A leading provider of wealth management and banking solutions, it has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a 3.1% increase in the current year earnings estimate over the last 60 days. Its shares gained 45.4% in the last three months, outperforming the S&P 500's 19% gain, and it holds a Momentum Score of A [1][2]. - **State Street (STT)**: This financial holding company serves institutional investors globally and also has a Zacks Rank of 1. The current year earnings estimate increased by 3.1% over the last 60 days. State Street's shares rose by 39.5% in the last three months, again surpassing the S&P 500's 19% gain, with a Momentum Score of A [2][3]. - **Cadence Bank (CADE)**: Providing banking and financial solutions to various clients, Cadence Bank has a Zacks Rank of 1 and a 3.2% increase in the current year earnings estimate over the last 60 days. Its shares increased by 31.7% in the last three months, exceeding the S&P 500's 19% gain, and it also has a Momentum Score of A [3][4].

Core Insights - Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) successfully passed the Federal Reserve's 2025 stress test, maintaining a 2.5% Stress Capital Buffer, indicating a strong capital position and resilience against severe economic downturns [1][3] - Analysts have revised earnings growth estimates for NTRS upward for 2024 and 2025, reflecting optimism about the company's financial performance [2] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTRS's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at $8.18, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 6.23% [12] - Over the past three to five years, NTRS's EPS has increased by 3.1%, with a projected growth rate of 6.2% in the near term [8][11] - The company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 13% in the first quarter of 2025, indicating consistent profitability and operational efficiency [16] Dividend and Share Repurchase - Following the stress test, NTRS plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 7% to $0.80 per share starting in Q3 2025, subject to board approval, with a current dividend yield of 2.34% [4] - NTRS has an active share repurchase program, having repurchased $287 million worth of shares in Q1 2025, with $25 million authorized for buybacks [6] Growth Drivers - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8% in total revenues from 2020 to 2024, supported by increases in net interest income (NII) and non-interest income [12][14] - Loan and lease balances grew at a CAGR of 6.7% during the same period, with expectations for a rebound in loan activity as the client base expands [13][14] - The launch of Family Office Solutions in April 2025 aims to attract ultra-high-net-worth clients, enhancing revenue potential [14] Cost Management - Northern Trust is implementing cost optimization measures, including disciplined headcount management and process automation, to enhance productivity and achieve financial objectives [15] - The company has maintained a solid liquidity position, with deposits totaling $52 billion compared to total debt of $12 billion, supporting its financial flexibility [7] Market Performance - Over the past year, NTRS shares have increased by 53.1%, outperforming the industry growth of 28.6% [17] - NTRS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive market sentiment [20]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) - NTRS currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum characteristics [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting it is positioned for potential outperformance in the market [3] Performance Metrics - Over the past week, NTRS shares increased by 11.23%, outperforming the Zacks Banks - Major Regional industry, which rose by 5.61% [5] - In a longer timeframe, NTRS shares have risen by 22.05% over the past month, compared to the industry's 10.35% [5] - Over the last quarter, NTRS shares surged by 49.17%, and over the past year, they gained 58.43%, while the S&P 500 increased by 24.12% and 14.76%, respectively [6] Trading Volume - NTRS has an average 20-day trading volume of 2,738,580 shares, which is a useful indicator of market interest and price movement [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, three earnings estimates for NTRS have been revised upwards, with no downward revisions, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $7.90 to $8.18 [9] - For the next fiscal year, three estimates have also moved upwards without any downward revisions [9] Conclusion - Given the strong performance metrics and positive earnings outlook, NTRS is identified as a promising stock with a Momentum Score of A, making it a potential candidate for investors seeking short-term gains [11]

Company Performance - Aviva (AVVIY) has gained approximately 43.5% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the average return of 9.9% for Finance companies [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aviva's full-year earnings has increased by 4.2% over the past quarter, indicating improving analyst sentiment and a positive earnings outlook [3] Industry Comparison - Aviva is part of the Insurance - Life Insurance industry, which consists of 16 companies and currently ranks 77 in the Zacks Industry Rank. This industry has an average gain of 3.7% year-to-date, showing that Aviva is performing better than its peers [5] - In contrast, Northern Trust Corporation, another strong performer in the Finance sector, belongs to the Banks - Major Regional industry, which has 10 stocks and is ranked 38, with a year-to-date gain of 7.2% [6]

Core Insights - The financial services sector outperformed expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by modest economic expansion, decent loan demand, higher interest rates, increased market volatility, and ongoing business restructuring initiatives [1][2][8] Sector Performance - The financial services sector gained over 7% in the January-June period, surpassing the S&P 500 Index's 4.9% rise [2] - Higher interest rates, technology investments, loan growth, and market volatility contributed to the sector's strength [8] Technology and Innovation - Increased use of innovative trading platforms and the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to enhance profitability for finance firms in the long run, despite initial technology-related expenses [3] Top-Performing Stocks - Five top-performing stocks in the financial services sector include Coinbase Global (COIN), W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB), Northern Trust (NTRS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Charles Schwab (SCHW) [4][8] Coinbase Global (COIN) - Coinbase is positioned to benefit from increased crypto market volatility, with 84% of its revenues coming from the U.S. market [9] - The company is investing in infrastructure and platforms like Base to enhance the practical use of crypto [10] - Coinbase ended Q1 2025 with $10.2 billion in USD resources, a 6.7% increase from the end of 2024 [12] W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) - WRB has been investing in startups and expanding into international markets, with a 10.2% year-over-year increase in net premiums written in Q1 2025 [15] - The company is experiencing growth across all business lines except for professional liability and workers' compensation [16] Northern Trust (NTRS) - Northern Trust is focusing on organic expansion and has launched Family Office Solutions to attract ultra-high-net-worth clients [20] - The company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 13% in Q1 2025, indicating progress towards sustainable profitability [22] Goldman Sachs (GS) - Goldman Sachs is restructuring to refocus on core strengths, including the transfer of its GM credit card business and the sale of GreenSky [24][25] - The company expects a recovery in investment banking revenues in the second half of 2025 as economic conditions stabilize [26] Charles Schwab (SCHW) - Schwab is benefiting from a high-interest-rate environment, with its net interest margin improving to 2.12% by the end of Q1 2025 [30] - The company has a strong cash position of $35 billion and a total debt of $39.9 billion as of March 31, 2025 [33]

Core Viewpoint - The potential merger interest between Bank of New York Mellon and Northern Trust has led to a significant increase in Northern Trust's stock price, highlighting investor attraction during takeover speculation [1][2]. Group 1: Merger Interest - Bank of New York Mellon has expressed interest in merging with Northern Trust, with discussions reportedly reaching the CEOs of both companies [2]. - The discussions have not progressed to a specific offer, and Mellon is considering its next steps regarding a potential deal [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Northern Trust has a market capitalization exceeding $24 billion, indicating that any acquisition would come with a substantial price tag, even at a modest premium [5]. - Given Mellon's eagerness to acquire a sizable asset, it is anticipated that any premium offered will be generous [6]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the news of the potential merger, Northern Trust's shares rose by more than 11% during the week, reflecting positive investor sentiment [1].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has lagged behind the overall market in recent years, but recent developments such as stress test results and relaxed capital rules present opportunities for upward movement in bank stocks [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The KBW Bank Index is still over 7% lower than its historical high in 2022, while the S&P 500 has risen more than 30% during the same period [1]. - Analyst Mike Mayo believes that the banking sector is experiencing a significant regulatory turning point, with improved operating leverage and continuous revenue growth [4]. Group 2: Stress Tests and Capital Rules - Ian Katz from Capital Alpha Partners expects all banks to pass the upcoming stress tests, which would allow for increased stock buybacks and dividend distributions [5]. - The Federal Reserve plans to lower future testing restrictions, and the current severe scenario for the tests appears to be less stringent than last year [5]. - Regulatory reforms are underway, with the Fed's Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supporting revisions to capital rules, which may accelerate bank merger activities [5]. Group 3: M&A Speculation - Speculation around mergers and acquisitions is rising, with reports of Bank of New York Mellon potentially pursuing a large acquisition of Northern Trust Corp, which has vowed to remain independent [6]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the positive outlook, there are risks that the banking sector may not keep pace with the broader market gains, influenced by economic and geopolitical factors [7]. - The Federal Reserve's policy direction remains uncertain, and high interest rates could pose risks to financial liabilities, as seen in the recent bank failures [7]. - Analysts suggest that regional banks, which rely less on trading income, may face less pressure compared to larger banks [7].

Company Overview - Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) shares increased by 8% to $120.81 in the last trading session, with a trading volume higher than average [1] - The stock has gained 5.7% over the past four weeks [1] Merger Speculation - The rise in Northern Trust's stock price was influenced by a Wall Street Journal report indicating that Bank of New York Mellon approached Northern Trust for a potential merger discussion [2] - Senior executives from both firms have held at least one meeting, although no specific terms or formal offers were discussed [2] - The early-stage talks have generated investor optimism and speculation about a possible deal, contributing to the stock's surge [2] Earnings Expectations - Northern Trust is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.06 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.7% [3] - Revenues are anticipated to be $1.97 billion, which is a decrease of 27.5% compared to the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate for Northern Trust has been revised 0.7% higher in the last 30 days [4] - A positive trend in earnings estimate revisions is typically associated with price appreciation, suggesting potential for further stock strength [4] Industry Context - Northern Trust is part of the Zacks Banks - Major Regional industry, which includes other companies like M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) [4] - M&T Bank's consensus EPS estimate has changed by +0.1% to $4.03, representing a 6.3% increase from the previous year [5] - M&T Bank also holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5]