智通财经APP获悉，随着美国各大银行本周正式拉开财报季帷幕，策略师指出，当前市场对华尔街盈利预期的保守态度，或为银行股 延续强势表现创造有利条件。 近期银行板块涨势显著，涵盖摩根大通(JPM.US)、花旗集团(C.US)等24家机构的KBW银行指数自4月低点以来累计上涨约37%，目前 接近历史高位，这一涨幅不仅超越标普500指数同期表现，更超过以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数约31%的涨幅。 值得关注的是，市场对金融股的盈利预期存在显著预期差。彭博行业研究数据显示，尽管金融板块预计将贡献标普500指数整体收益 的18.6%，但其当前在指数中的权重仅为13.7%，这一差距已超过该指数近15年的平均水平。 分析师平均预测标普500金融股指数第二季度收益将同比下降约1%，彭博策略师吉娜·马丁·亚当斯与迈克尔·卡斯珀在报告中指出："投 资者对金融股盈利预期普遍持谨慎态度，这意味着若实际利润表现超预期，板块上行空间仍存。" 本周将迎来多家重量级银行财报，摩根大通、花旗集团、富国银行(WFC)将于周二率先披露业绩，高盛(GS.US)、摩根士丹利(MS.US) 及美国银行也将于本周后续时段公布数据。监管环境改善成为支撑板块 ...

对冲基金以近十年来最大规模押注美国银行股，推动金融股创下历史新高。 据高盛集团主要经纪业务的数据显示，上周对冲基金对银行股的净买入规模升至近十年来最高水平。这一乐观情绪，加上对降息预期升温以及美 联储宣布所有大型银行通过年度压力测试，共同推动标普500指数金融股指标周一创下历史新高。 市场预期，即将到来的银行业监管放松将成为重要催化剂，包括放宽资本和杠杆要求的银行监管修订。分析师预计这些变化将在2025年下半年实 施，允许银行在年底前及2026年更积极地管理贷款组合。 尽管经历九个季度的盈利扩张后，金融板块在当前报告期预计增长有限，但期权交易员仍在为股价进一步上涨做准备。金融精选行业SPDR基金 (XLF)的看涨看跌比率正徘徊在四个月高位附近。 对冲基金大举押注银行股 华尔街机构投资者对银行股的信心正达到新高度。高盛主要经纪业务数据显示，对冲基金上周对银行股的净买入活动升至近十年来峰值，显示"聪 明钱"对该板块前景的强烈看好。 这种乐观情绪在分析师和交易员中广泛存在。瑞银集团将大盘银行股篮子列为交易台参与更广泛股市上涨的首选方式之一；富国银行明星银行业 分析师Mike Mayo预测银行股将进一步上涨，美国银行 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Nasdaq and NYSE are negotiating with the SEC to revise regulations that hinder companies from going public and maintaining their listing status, aiming to attract more high-valuation startups to list in the US [2][5] - The reform plan is broad, involving lowering disclosure standards, reducing listing costs, and setting higher thresholds for minority shareholders to initiate shareholder actions [5][7] - A key focus of the reform is the proxy voting system, which regulates how companies disclose information to shareholders and affects their voting rights [5] Group 2 - The reform plan aims to further reduce the costs associated with going public and maintaining a listing, including relaxing financing restrictions for SPACs [7] - The ongoing reform discussions align with President Trump's campaign promise to deregulate and stimulate the economy, potentially marking the largest adjustment to US capital market regulations since the JOBS Act in 2012 [7] - Nasdaq plans to implement a 24/7 trading mechanism, which could reshape market structure and impact trading activity and investor habits [10] Group 3 - While deregulation may attract more high-valuation startups, it could also lead to a mix of company quality entering the capital market, increasing information asymmetry for investors [8] - The proposed measures to facilitate financing for listed companies through share issuance may lower financing thresholds but could compromise investor protection [10] - The company aims to leverage its industry experience to help clients navigate the new regulations and optimize their listing and financing strategies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has lagged behind the overall market in recent years, but recent developments such as stress test results and relaxed capital rules present opportunities for upward movement in bank stocks [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The KBW Bank Index is still over 7% lower than its historical high in 2022, while the S&P 500 has risen more than 30% during the same period [1]. - Analyst Mike Mayo believes that the banking sector is experiencing a significant regulatory turning point, with improved operating leverage and continuous revenue growth [4]. Group 2: Stress Tests and Capital Rules - Ian Katz from Capital Alpha Partners expects all banks to pass the upcoming stress tests, which would allow for increased stock buybacks and dividend distributions [5]. - The Federal Reserve plans to lower future testing restrictions, and the current severe scenario for the tests appears to be less stringent than last year [5]. - Regulatory reforms are underway, with the Fed's Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supporting revisions to capital rules, which may accelerate bank merger activities [5]. Group 3: M&A Speculation - Speculation around mergers and acquisitions is rising, with reports of Bank of New York Mellon potentially pursuing a large acquisition of Northern Trust Corp, which has vowed to remain independent [6]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the positive outlook, there are risks that the banking sector may not keep pace with the broader market gains, influenced by economic and geopolitical factors [7]. - The Federal Reserve's policy direction remains uncertain, and high interest rates could pose risks to financial liabilities, as seen in the recent bank failures [7]. - Analysts suggest that regional banks, which rely less on trading income, may face less pressure compared to larger banks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has proposed a significant reform that could alter capital rules for U.S. banks, aiming to reduce capital requirements for low-risk assets, particularly U.S. Treasury securities, which reflects a potential shift in regulatory philosophy [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Banking Sector - The proposed changes could release approximately $213 billion in capital for large U.S. banks, as capital requirements for deposit-taking subsidiaries are expected to decrease by an average of 27% [3]. - Global bank holding companies may see a reduction in capital burden by 1.4%, allowing for more capital to be allocated [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The proposal is anticipated to encourage banks to engage more actively in the Treasury market, potentially enhancing liquidity in this critical global financial market [3]. - Following the announcement, bank stocks experienced an uptick, and expectations for improved liquidity in the Treasury market increased [3]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Concerns - There are notable internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, with some members expressing concerns that loosening regulations could undermine banks' risk resilience [3]. - The debate highlights a fundamental division within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to financial regulation: whether to maintain a conservative stance post-crisis or adopt a more flexible, market-oriented approach [3]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 2022 following the proposal, indicating market reassessment of policy risks [4]. - While the regulatory easing may stimulate short-term economic growth, there are lingering questions about its long-term impact on financial stability [4].

昨夜今晨的美股市场堪称教科书级的"政策市+科技市"联动案例。美联储主席鲍威尔(Bowell)在纽约的讲 话中那句"经济比预期更好"的表态，就像投入资本市场的深水炸弹，瞬间激活了多头的做多热情。标准 普尔500指数(S&P 500)突破6086点、道指(Dow Jones)首次站上45000点、纳斯达克(NASDAQ)逼近19735 点——三大股指同步创下历史新高的盛况，完美诠释了什么叫"货币政策预期主导市场情绪"。 鲍威尔的平衡术(Fed's Balancing Act) 这位美联储掌舵人的表态堪称"鹰鸽平衡"的典范。既承认通胀压力缓解，又强调"不急于降息"；既肯定 经济韧性，又暗示政策灵活性。EvercoreISI分析师Krishna Guha的点评一针见血：这种"既...又..."的表述 艺术，既避免了刺激市场对12月降息的过度期待，又给投资者吃了颗"政策不会急转弯"的定心丸。配合 当天发布的褐皮书(Beige Book)显示企业乐观情绪升温，这种政策预期与经济数据的共振，构成了牛市 最坚实的底座。 就在美股主旋律高歌猛进时，纳斯达克中国金龙指数逆势下跌1.38%的表现格外扎眼。阿里(Alibaba)、 ...

金十数据4月25日讯，美联储周四宣布撤销针对银行加密资产及美元代币业务的监管指引，并同步更新 相关业务预期标准。此举旨在确保监管要求与风险演变保持同步，进一步支持银行体系创新。公告显 示，美联储正式废止2022年发布的监管函件，该文件此前要求州成员银行就拟开展或现有的加密资产业 务进行事前报备。撤销后，美联储将不再要求银行履行报备义务，转为通过常规监管程序监测相关活 动。同时被废止的还包括2023年关于州成员银行参与美元代币业务"监管无异议"程序的指导文件。此 外，美联储与联邦存款保险公司共同决定，退出由联邦银行监管机构2023年联合发布的两份关于银行加 密资产业务及风险敞口的政策声明。货币监理署此前已退出该声明。美联储表示，未来将与其他监管机 构协同评估是否需要出台支持创新（包括加密资产业务）的新指导框架。 松绑加密监管 美联储等机构撤销银行业的相关指导意见 ...