Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call December 10, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants John Swygert - Chief Executive Officer Eric van der Valk - President Robert Helm - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Matthew Boss - JPMorgan Peter Keith - Piper Sandler Bradley Thomas - KeyBanc Capital Markets Chuck Grom - Gordon Haskett Scot Ciccarelli - Truist Securities Kate McShane - Goldman Sachs Jeremy Hamblin - Craig-Hallu ...

Financial Performance - Net sales increased 7.8% to $517.4 million in Q3 fiscal 2024 compared to $480.1 million in Q3 fiscal 2023[4] - Operating income increased 14.0% to $44.5 million, with an operating margin of 8.6%, up 50 basis points[6][16] - Net income rose 12.8% to $35.9 million, or $0.58 per diluted share, compared to $31.8 million, or $0.51 per diluted share in the prior year[7][17] - Adjusted EBITDA increased 17.0% to $59.8 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.6%, up 100 basis points[9][18] - Gross profit margin improved to 41.4% for the latest quarter, compared to 40.4% in the prior year, indicating a positive trend in profitability[35] - Operating income for the thirteen weeks ended October 28, 2023, was $44,522, up from $39,069, reflecting an increase of 11.8%[35] - Net income for the thirteen weeks ended October 28, 2023, was $35,884, compared to $31,803 in the same period last year, marking a growth of 12.9%[35] - Basic earnings per share increased to $0.59 for the latest quarter, up from $0.52, representing a growth of 13.5%[35] - Adjusted net income for the thirteen weeks ended November 2, 2024, was $35,745, compared to $31,614 in the prior year, showing an increase of 13.5%[46] - Net income per diluted share for the thirteen weeks ended October 28, 2023, was $0.58, compared to $0.51 for the same period last year, representing a 13.7% increase[47] - Adjusted net income per diluted share for the thirteen weeks ended October 28, 2023, was $0.58, up from $0.51 year-over-year[47] - EBITDA for the thirteen weeks ended October 28, 2023, was $56.234 million, an increase from $48.120 million in the prior year, reflecting a 17.5% growth[50] - Adjusted EBITDA for the thirteen weeks ended October 28, 2023, reached $59.840 million, compared to $51.124 million in the same period last year, marking a 16.9% increase[50] Store Operations - The company opened 24 new stores, ending the quarter with 546 stores, an 8.1% year-over-year increase[5] - The company opened 24 new stores during the thirteen weeks ended October 28, 2023, compared to 23 new stores in the same period last year[50] - The number of stores open at the end of the period increased to 546 from 505 year-over-year, indicating a growth of 8.1%[50] Sales Metrics - Comparable store sales decreased 0.5% from the prior year increase of 7.0%[5] - Comparable store sales change for the thirteen weeks ended October 28, 2023, was -0.5%, down from a 7.0% increase in the prior year[50] - Average net sales per store for the thirteen weeks ended October 28, 2023, was $965, slightly down from $970 in the same period last year[50] Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $303.9 million from $264.0 million year-over-year[19] - Total current assets rose to $923,787 as of November 2, 2024, compared to $805,559 a year earlier, reflecting an increase of 14.6%[37] - Total assets increased to $2,470,842 from $2,194,360, indicating a growth of 12.6% year-over-year[37] - Total liabilities increased to $853,870 from $753,986, representing a rise of 13.2%[37] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $128,685, down from $159,555, reflecting a decrease of 19.3%[39] Strategic Developments - The company has acquired 17 store locations related to the Big Lots bankruptcy, enhancing its store pipeline[23] - The company estimates fiscal 2024 net sales between $2.270 billion and $2.280 billion, with a comparable store sales increase of 2.7% to 3.0%[25]

The market expects Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended October 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on December 10, 2024, might help the stock move higher if these k ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a neutral stance on retailer Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (NASDAQ: OLLI) taken in March 2023, indicating a cautious approach towards the company's performance at that time [1] - The focus of Crude Value Insights is on cash flow and companies that generate it, highlighting the importance of value and growth prospects in the oil and natural gas sector [1] Group 2 - Subscribers to Crude Value Insights benefit from a 50+ stock model account, which includes in-depth cash flow analyses of exploration and production (E&P) firms [2] - The service offers live chat discussions about the oil and gas sector, fostering community engagement among investors [2] - A promotional offer is available for a two-week free trial, encouraging new users to explore the oil and gas investment opportunities [3]

Core Points - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. will release its financial results for Q3 of fiscal year 2024 on December 10, 2024, before market opens [1] - A conference call to discuss the results will be hosted by the management team at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day [1] - Interested parties can access the live conference call through pre-registration and can also listen to a live webcast or replay via the Investor Relations section of the company's website [2] Company Overview - Ollie's is the largest retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory in America, offering significant value on brand name products across various departments [3] - The company operates 557 stores across 31 states and continues to grow [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is expanding its footprint by acquiring leases for eight former Big Lots locations, which is part of Big Lots' restructuring efforts involving the closure of 170 stores [1][2]. Expansion and Growth Strategy - With the new acquisitions, Ollie's Bargain will hold a total of 15 former Big Lots store leases, providing valuable opportunities due to advantageous lease terms and prime locations [2]. - The ongoing closure of Big Lots stores allows Ollie's Bargain to streamline its operations and focus on enhancing productivity while minimizing pre-opening costs [3]. - For fiscal 2024, Ollie's plans to open 50 new stores and has two planned closures, with a long-term goal of expanding to 1,300 stores across the United States [4]. Business Model and Performance - Ollie's Bargain operates on a "buying cheap, selling cheap" model, which has resonated well with value-conscious customers, leading to positive customer feedback and a diverse clientele [5]. - The company has achieved nine consecutive quarters of growth in comparable store sales, with a 5.8% increase in the second quarter of fiscal 2024 [7]. - OLLI shares have gained 24.6% in the past six months, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [8]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - OLLI's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 25X, which is higher than the industry's ratio of 18.6X, indicating a premium valuation compared to expected earnings growth [10]. - The company has prioritized cost efficiency and has maintained solid profit margins despite market fluctuations [6]. Customer Engagement and Loyalty - Ollie's Army, the customer loyalty program, has strengthened customer connections and reinforced the company's competitive edge in the retail market [6].

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is one of the go-to destinations for budget-conscious shoppers. With its compelling "buying cheap and selling cheap" business model, the company has become a household name for those seeking incredible deals on brand-name products. This strategic positioning has fueled a remarkable 31.7% surge in its stock price over the past six months, outpacing the industry's rise of 10%. Ollie's Bargain Winning Formula Ollie's Bargain core business model is uniquely positione ...

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are appealing due to their potential for above-average financial growth, but identifying the right ones can be challenging due to associated risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is highlighted as a strong growth stock, possessing a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] - The company has a historical EPS growth rate of 1.6%, but projected EPS growth for this year is expected to be 12.8%, surpassing the industry average of 11.6% [4] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Ollie's Bargain Outlet exhibits a year-over-year cash flow growth of 64.8%, significantly higher than the industry average of -6.1% [5] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 9.8%, compared to the industry average of 7.8% [6] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - Current-year earnings estimates for Ollie's Bargain Outlet have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 0.1% over the past month [8] - The combination of a Growth Score of A and a Zacks Rank 2 positions Ollie's Bargain Outlet favorably for potential outperformance [9]

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is looking like an interesting pick from a technical perspective, as the company reached a key level of support. Recently, OLLI broke out above the 50-day moving average, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. The 50-day simple moving average is one of three major moving averages used by traders and analysts to determine support or resistance levels for a wide range of securities. But the 50-day is considered to be more important because it's the first marker of an up or down t ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has downgraded its rating for Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) from buy to hold due to increased valuation, despite a positive fundamental outlook and expected growth [2][9]. Financial Performance - OLLI reported 2Q24 earnings with same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 5.8%, leading to total revenue of $578.4 million, reflecting a 12.4% year-over-year growth [3][4]. - Gross margin decreased by 30 basis points year-over-year to 37.9%, attributed to a shift in product mix [3]. - Operating expenses grew by 8.2% year-over-year to $145.7 million, but EBIT margin expanded by 30 basis points to 10.5%, resulting in a net margin improvement of 20 basis points and operating EPS of $0.78, marking approximately 16% year-over-year growth [3][4]. Growth Drivers - The growth in SSSG was supported by positive trends in transaction numbers, basket size, and average unit revenue, with transaction growth being the largest contributor [4]. - OLLI's new customer acquisition strategy, including an improved email program and a new co-branded credit card, is expected to sustain SSSG momentum [5]. Market Position and Competition - Management noted continued momentum in 3Q24, tracking ahead of internal expectations, despite potential headwinds from Big Lots' liquidation affecting OLLI's trade areas [6]. - The company anticipates meeting its FY24 SSSG target of 2.7% to 3.2%, supported by strong 1H24 performance and underlying demand strength [6]. Valuation and Future Outlook - OLLI is considered a top performer in the discount/value retail space, justifying its premium valuation relative to peers, although the recent increase in valuation has made the upside less attractive [7]. - Consensus estimates for FY25 EPS are $3.73, driven by low-teens revenue CAGR and net margin expansion, suggesting a share price target of approximately $100, indicating about 5% upside [8].