Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.91 per share, reflecting a 16.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $662.68 million, a 14.6% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Analysts have revised the consensus EPS estimate upward by 0.2% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment of projections [2] - The correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price performance is well-documented, making these revisions significant for predicting investor behavior [3] Financial Metrics - Analysts estimate 'Comparable store sales change' to be 1.9%, down from 5.8% in the same quarter last year [5] - The 'Number of stores - End of period' is projected to be 609, an increase from 525 reported in the same quarter last year [5] - The estimated 'Number of new stores' is 25, compared to 9 in the same quarter last year [6] - Analysts expect 'Number of stores open at the beginning of period' to be 584, up from 516 in the same quarter last year [6] Market Performance - Ollie's Bargain Outlet shares have decreased by 1.2% over the past month, contrasting with a 2.7% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [6] - With a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), OLLI is anticipated to outperform the overall market in the near term [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues for the quarter ended July 2025, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is $0.91 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +16.7% [3]. - Expected revenues are projected at $662.68 million, which is a 14.6% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.23% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Ollie's is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +1.72%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 2, which Ollie's currently holds [10][12]. - Historical performance shows that Ollie's has beaten consensus EPS estimates in two out of the last four quarters, with a recent surprise of +7.14% [13][14]. Conclusion - Ollie's Bargain Outlet is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider other influencing factors before making investment decisions [17].

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the syste ...

Company Announcement - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. will report its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 before the market opens on August 28, 2025 [1] - The conference call to discuss the financial results will be hosted by the President and CEO Eric van der Valk and CFO Robert Helm at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day [1] Access Information - Interested parties can pre-register for the live conference call and will receive confirmation with dial-in instructions [2] - A live webcast or replay of the conference call will be available on the Investor Relations section of the Company's website [2] Company Overview - Ollie's is a leading off-price retailer specializing in brand name household products, operating under the mission of selling Good Stuff Cheap® [3] - The company utilizes a flexible buying model focusing on closeout merchandise and excess inventory, offering prices up to 70% below other retailers [3] - As of May 3, 2025, Ollie's operates 584 stores across 32 states, with plans for further growth [3]

Company Overview - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is celebrating the Grand Opening of its 600th store in Belmont, New Hampshire, marking its expansion into the 34th state [1][2] - The company is recognized as America's largest retailer of brand name closeout merchandise, offering discounts of up to 70% off compared to traditional retailers [1][4] Product Offering - Ollie's provides a wide range of products including books, flooring, food, housewares, toys, electronics, bed and bath items, health and beauty products, and pet supplies [1][2] - The company operates under the mission of selling "Good Stuff Cheap®" through a flexible buying model that focuses on closeout merchandise and excess inventory [4] Employment Impact - Each new store opening creates approximately 50 to 60 jobs in the local community, contributing to the employment of over 13,000 associates across the company [2]

Core Points - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. celebrated its 10th anniversary on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange and the opening of its 600th store, marking significant milestones in the company's growth [1][3] - The company is expanding into its 34th state, indicating ongoing growth and market penetration [1][3] - CEO Eric van der Valk emphasized the company's commitment to providing value through a flexible buying model focused on closeout merchandise and excess inventory, with prices up to 70% below traditional retailers [4] Company Overview - Ollie's is a leading off-price retailer specializing in brand name household products, founded in 1982 with a mission to sell "Good Stuff Cheap" [4] - As of May 3, 2025, Ollie's operated 584 stores across 32 states, showcasing its rapid expansion [4] - The company prides itself on financial transparency and high operational standards as a publicly traded entity [3]

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [5] Core Insights - Dollar Stores are experiencing significant momentum, with an expected acceleration in share gains throughout 2025, potentially driving an incremental comp growth of approximately 200-250 basis points [3][18][22] - The combined share of Dollar Stores (DG, DLTR, FIVE, OLLI) nearly doubled in Q1'25, reaching around 3% of incremental retail sales, compared to 1.6% in Q4'24 [2][13] - Major retailers like AMZN, WMT, and COST continue to dominate the market, capturing approximately 43% of every incremental dollar of retail sales, making it challenging for other retailers to gain market share [4][7] Summary by Sections Dollar Store Performance - Dollar Stores benefited from a heightened degree of share donation in Q1'25, with an estimated $3 billion of donated share, significantly higher than the previous quarter [15][18] - The share gains for Dollar Stores are attributed to bankruptcies and store closures among competitors, as well as tariff impacts on certain retailers [3][18] Major Retailers' Market Share - In Q1'25, AMZN's share of incremental retail sales decreased to 20.7%, while WMT and COST gained shares, with WMT at 11.1% and COST at 11.3% [4][9] - COST's share of incremental retail sales has shown a steady increase since 2022, reaching 11.3% in Q1'25, indicating strong momentum [9][10] Future Projections - The analysis suggests that Dollar Stores will continue to see outsized incremental sales through the end of 2025, driven by ongoing share donations from competitors [18][22] - The expected decline in Temu's sales is projected to significantly impact the market dynamics, with a forecasted 37% year-over-year decline in Q2'25 [18][22]

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' stock is significantly overvalued despite some growth, with concerns regarding profitability and performance during downturns [3][10]. Financial Performance - In fiscal Q1, Ollie's reported a 13% year-over-year increase in sales to $577 million, which was below market expectations, raising concerns about demand consistency [4]. - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.75, exceeding analyst expectations by 6%, indicating improved cost controls or margin expansion [4]. - The operating margin decreased to 9.7% from 11.1% year-over-year, yet management maintained full-year adjusted EPS guidance at $3.70 [4]. - Same-store sales increased by 2.6%, matching the previous year's pace [4]. Valuation Metrics - Ollie's price-to-sales ratio is 3.1, slightly above the S&P 500's 3.0, while the price-to-free cash flow ratio stands at 30.8 compared to the S&P's 20.5 [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio of 35.2 is significantly higher than the benchmark's 26.4, suggesting that investors are overvaluing the company's performance [5]. Profitability Profile - Revenue growth has been respectable, with a 9.1% annual increase over the past three years, reaching $2.3 billion in the last twelve months [6]. - Operating margin is at 11.0%, below the S&P 500's 13.2%, and the operating cash flow margin is at 10.0%, compared to the index's 14.9% [6]. - The net income margin of 8.8% also falls short of the S&P's 11.6%, positioning Ollie's among the weaker performers in the Trefis coverage universe [6]. Financial Stability - Ollie's balance sheet is strong, with $648 million in debt against a market capitalization of $7 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.7%, well below the S&P 500's 19.9% [7]. - The cash-to-assets ratio is consistent with the broader index, but does not alleviate concerns regarding weak profitability and high valuation [8]. Downturn Performance - Ollie's stock has shown poor resilience during economic downturns, with a 64.2% decline during the 2022 inflation shock compared to a 25.4% drop in the S&P 500 [9]. - During the 2020 COVID market crash, Ollie's stock fell 46.2%, while the broader index declined by 33.9% [9].

Company Overview - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: OLLI) is positioned for growth with a clear setup for expansion [1] - Management is effectively executing strategies across multiple fronts, including new store growth ahead of schedule [1] Financial Performance - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) is a key driver of the company's performance [1] - The focus is on understanding core economics, competitive moat, unit economics, and management quality to generate long-term free cash flow and shareholder value [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach emphasizes identifying businesses with potential for scaling and unlocking significant terminal value [1] - The analysis aims to provide insights into long-term equity value drivers, focusing on sectors with strong secular tailwinds [1]

Group 1: Company Performance - Ollie's Q1 sales reached $576.77 million, a 13% increase from $508.82 million year-over-year, exceeding estimates by 2% [2] - HealthEquity's Q1 sales were $330.84 million, up 15% from $287.6 million in the previous year, surpassing estimates by 3% [3] - Ollie's Q1 earnings per share (EPS) were $0.75, beating expectations of $0.70 by 7% and increasing 3% from the prior period [2] - HealthEquity's Q1 EPS was $0.97, a 21% increase from $0.80 year-over-year, exceeding expectations by nearly 20% [3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Ollie's opened 25 new stores in Q1, marking a record for any period in its history, and has over 500 stores across 32 states [4][5] - The company capitalized on retail store closures and supply chain disruptions to acquire new locations, particularly through bankruptcy auctions of former Big Lots stores [5][7] - HealthEquity's growth was driven by its enrollment and contribution strategy, which focuses on helping employers reduce healthcare costs while empowering employees [8] Group 3: Market Position and Outlook - Ollie's stock has remained virtually flat for the year but has increased over 400% since its IPO in 2015 [7] - HealthEquity's Health Savings Accounts (HSA) assets grew 15% year-over-year to a record $31.27 billion, contributing to a stock rally that reached new 52-week highs [9] - Both companies are expected to achieve double-digit EPS growth in fiscal years 2026 and 2027, making them attractive investment opportunities amid economic uncertainty [13]