Core Insights - Consumers are becoming more selective in their spending, benefiting value-focused retailers like Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) and Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) [1] Summary of Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) - SFM is experiencing headwinds with slowing comparable sales, shrinking basket sizes, and margin normalization, leading to a forecast of flat to 2% comparable-store growth for Q4 fiscal 2025 [2][4] - Comparable-store sales growth was 5.9%, below management's expectations and significantly lower than the previous quarters' growth of 10.2% and 11.7% [2] - Consumer behavior is shifting, particularly among middle-income and younger shoppers, leading to thinner basket sizes and limiting average unit retail (AUR) growth [3] - Management anticipates gross margin expansion to slow to 20 basis points in Q4, following previous expansions of 60, 90, and 130 basis points [4] - SFM is focusing on product innovation, customer experience, and targeted marketing, with plans to launch about 7,000 new products in 2025 [5] - The company is enhancing its omnichannel strategy, resulting in a 21% year-over-year increase in e-commerce sales, which now account for 15.5% of total sales [6] - Store expansion remains strong, with nine new openings in Q3 and a total of 464 locations, aiming for 37 openings in 2025 [7] Summary of Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) - OLLI is posting solid sales gains driven by loyal shoppers and brand closeouts, with a strong distribution network and a high-performing loyalty program [9][10] - The loyalty program, Ollie's Army, has over 16 million active members, contributing over 80% of total sales and driving a 5% increase in comparable store sales [11] - OLLI's merchandising strategy focuses on brand-name closeouts, allowing it to consistently offer recognized brands at attractive prices, enhancing customer loyalty [12] - The company is expanding its distribution infrastructure to support future store count increases, reducing long-term logistical risks [13] - OLLI aims to have over 1,300 stores, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% from 388 stores in fiscal 2020 to 559 stores in fiscal 2024 [14] Financial Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SFM indicates year-over-year growth of 14.2% in sales and 40.5% in EPS, with a current EPS estimate of $5.27 [15] - OLLI's consensus estimates show year-over-year increases of 16.4% in sales and 16.5% in EPS, with an unchanged EPS estimate of $3.82 [16] - Over the past year, SFM shares have declined by 45.2%, while OLLI shares have gained 23.9%, reflecting differing operational momentum and market perceptions [19] - SFM is trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.85, while OLLI's forward P/S multiple is 2.61 [19] Investment Outlook - OLLI is viewed as better positioned for investors seeking upside, benefiting from a favorable closeout environment and a highly engaged customer base, while SFM faces challenges with slowing sales and margin pressures [20]

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. will report its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 on December 9, 2025, before market opening [1] Group 1: Financial Reporting - The financial results will be discussed in a conference call hosted by the President and CEO, Eric van der Valk, and the Executive Vice President and CFO, Robert Helm, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day [1] - Interested parties can access the live conference call by pre-registering and will receive dial-in instructions [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Ollie's is a leading off-price retailer specializing in brand name household products, operating under the mission of selling Good Stuff Cheap® since its founding in 1982 [3] - The company utilizes a flexible buying model focusing on closeout merchandise and excess inventory, offering prices up to 70% below traditional retailers [3] - As of August 2, 2025, Ollie's operates 613 stores across 34 states, with plans for further growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is showing potential for investment due to its recent technical indicators and positive earnings estimate revisions [1][4]. Technical Analysis - OLLI has crossed above the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1][2]. - The stock has increased by 6.2% over the past four weeks, suggesting upward momentum [4]. Earnings Estimates - There have been no downward revisions in earnings estimates for the current fiscal year in the past two months, with one estimate being revised higher [4]. - The consensus estimate for OLLI has also increased, reinforcing the positive outlook [4][5]. Investment Consideration - Given the positive technical factors and earnings estimate revisions, OLLI may present a good opportunity for investors looking for potential gains [5].

Core Insights - Artisan Partners' "Artisan Small Cap Fund" reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with major US indices reaching record highs and the fund's Investor Class returning 8.69% [1] - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) was highlighted as a key stock, showing a one-month return of 1.24% and a 52-week gain of 37.46% [2][3] Fund Performance - The Artisan Small Cap Fund's Advisor Class fund APDSX returned 8.75%, and the Institutional Class fund APHSX returned 8.73%, while the Russell 2000 Growth Index returned 12.19% [1] - The fund's top 5 holdings were mentioned as significant contributors to its performance for 2025 [1] Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. - Ollie's operates as a discount retailer with a unique shopping experience, benefiting from structural tailwinds such as an Amazon-resistant format and increased access to prime retail locations due to competitor closures [3] - The company's loyalty program, Ollie's Army, accounts for approximately 80% of total sales, indicating strong customer engagement [3] - A new management team is enhancing operational systems to support long-term growth [3] Hedge Fund Interest - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was held by 32 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, an increase from 25 in the previous quarter [4] - Despite its potential, some analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk compared to Ollie's [4]

Core Insights - Wall Street continues its strong performance in 2025, but the consumer staples sector is lagging, with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) down 1.7% year to date, the only sector in the S&P 500 Index in the red [1][2][8] Consumer Staples Sector Overview - The consumer staples sector is facing challenges due to rising living costs, which are impacting household budgets and leading to cautious consumer spending, resulting in margin compression [2] - Despite the overall sector's poor performance, five consumer staples stocks are highlighted for their potential to perform well in 2026: PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (LW), United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI), and Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI) [3][8] Company-Specific Insights PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) - PepsiCo, with a Zacks Rank of 2, is benefiting from strong beverage performance in international markets, particularly in Mexico, Brazil, Germany, and Thailand [6] - The company is focused on localizing flavors, expanding price-pack options, and enhancing productivity through digital transformation, with expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 3.3% and 5.6% for next year [7][9] Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST) - Monster Beverage, ranked 1, is capitalizing on the expanding energy drinks market, with a 16% sales growth in its energy drinks segment in Q3 2025 [10][11] - The company has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 9.3% and 12.8%, respectively, for next year, supported by improving margins and easing supply-chain pressures [11] Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (LW) - Lamb Weston, also ranked 1, is driving growth through its "Focus to Win" strategy, emphasizing operational efficiency and innovation [12] - The company expects a 4.1% volume increase year over year in fiscal 2026, with revenue and earnings growth rates of 1.3% and -6.3% for the current year [13] United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI) - United Natural Foods, ranked 1, is showing strong growth driven by demand for natural and organic products, with strategic initiatives enhancing efficiency and service quality [14][15] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 2.5% and over 100% earnings growth for the current year, with a significant 24.2% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [16] Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI) - Ollie's, with a Zacks Rank of 2, is leveraging a cost-effective business model and strategic investments to support growth, expecting a 16.3% revenue increase and 16.2% adjusted earnings per share improvement in fiscal 2025 [17][18] - The company plans to expand its store network significantly, aiming for over 1,300 stores, with a consistent CAGR of 9.5% from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2024 [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are appealing due to their potential for above-average financial growth, but identifying those that can fulfill their potential is challenging due to associated risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is highlighted as a recommended growth stock with a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] - The company has a historical EPS growth rate of 5.5%, but projected EPS growth for this year is expected to be 16.6%, significantly outperforming the industry average of 4.4% [5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Year-over-year cash flow growth for Ollie's Bargain Outlet stands at 14.3%, which is notably higher than the industry average of -3.9% [6] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 10.9%, compared to the industry average of 4.5% [7] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - Current-year earnings estimates for Ollie's Bargain Outlet have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 0.2% over the past month [9] - The company has earned a Growth Score of B and carries a Zacks Rank 2 due to positive earnings estimate revisions [10]

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, having a history of surpassing earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 7.97% [1][2] Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, Ollie's reported earnings of $0.99 per share against an expectation of $0.91, resulting in a surprise of 8.79%. In the previous quarter, the earnings were $0.75 per share compared to an estimate of $0.70, yielding a surprise of 7.14% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Ollie's have been increasing, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of another earnings beat. The current Earnings ESP stands at +6.54%, reflecting bullish sentiment among analysts [5][8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) suggests a high probability of exceeding earnings expectations [8] Statistical Insights - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better achieve a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, implying that out of 10 such stocks, approximately seven may beat consensus estimates [6][7] Importance of Earnings ESP - The Earnings ESP metric is crucial for predicting earnings performance, as it compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Analysts revising their estimates close to the earnings release often have the most current information, which can lead to more accurate predictions [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) is viewed positively by Jim Cramer, who encourages buying the stock, indicating it is a strong performer in the current market environment [1][2]. Company Overview - Ollie's Bargain Outlet specializes in selling discounted closeout and excess inventory across various categories, including home goods, food, toys, and electronics. The company operates under several brands, such as Ollie's, Good Stuff Cheap, and Real Brands Real Bargains [2]. Stock Performance - Following Jim Cramer's endorsement, Ollie's stock has increased by 3%, reflecting positive market sentiment and confidence in the company's performance [2].

Core Viewpoint - Growth investors are increasingly focused on stocks with above-average financial growth, which can lead to solid returns, but identifying such stocks is challenging due to inherent risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Ollie's Bargain Outlet Overview - Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is currently recommended as a growth stock by the Zacks Growth Style Score system, which evaluates a company's growth prospects beyond traditional metrics [2] - The stock has a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank, indicating strong potential for performance [2][10] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Earnings growth is a critical factor for growth investors, with double-digit growth being particularly attractive [4] - Ollie's Bargain Outlet has a historical EPS growth rate of 5.5%, but projected EPS growth for this year is 16.6%, significantly outperforming the industry average of 3.5% [5] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - Higher-than-average cash flow growth is essential for growth-oriented companies, allowing them to expand without relying on external funding [6] - Ollie's Bargain Outlet's year-over-year cash flow growth is 14.3%, well above the industry average of 2.3% [6] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 10.9%, compared to the industry average of 4.5% [7] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - Positive trends in earnings estimate revisions are correlated with stock price movements [8] - Ollie's Bargain Outlet has seen upward revisions in current-year earnings estimates, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 0.2% over the past month [8] Group 5: Conclusion - Ollie's Bargain Outlet has achieved a Growth Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 2 due to positive earnings estimate revisions, positioning it well for potential outperformance [10]

Consumer Sentiment - U.S. consumer sentiment declined in October, with the University of Michigan's preliminary reading at 55, down from 55.1 in September, but above analysts' expectations of 54.1 [4] - Short-term inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.6% over the next 12 months, down from 4.7% the previous month, while long-term expectations remained unchanged at 3.7% [5] Market Environment - Overall consumer confidence remains low due to economic uncertainty, leading to increased volatility in Wall Street, exacerbated by fears of a trade dispute with China [2][7] - The ongoing government shutdown has contributed to market volatility, with all three major stock indexes ending lower last week [7] Defensive Stocks - In the current market environment, investors are advised to focus on low-beta, defensive stocks, particularly in the consumer staples sector, to mitigate market fluctuations [3] - Companies such as Energizer Holdings, Grocery Outlet, United Natural Foods, and Ollie's Bargain Outlet are highlighted for their steady earnings growth and improved estimates [9] Company Insights - **Energizer Holdings, Inc.**: Expected earnings growth rate of 8.7% for the current year, with a 1.4% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [8] - **Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.**: Expected earnings growth rate of 1.3% for the current year, with a 1.3% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [10] - **United Natural Foods, Inc.**: Expected earnings growth rate exceeds 100% for the current year, with a 24% improvement in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [12] - **Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.**: Expected earnings growth rate of 16.5% for the current year, with a 2.1% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [14]