Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. reported mixed third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share exceeding analyst expectations but sales falling short of projections [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 75 cents, beating the analyst consensus estimate of 73 cents [1]. - Quarterly sales reached $613.62 million, reflecting an 18.6% year-over-year increase, but missed the expected $614.397 million [1]. Future Outlook - Following the better-than-expected third-quarter results, the company raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share guidance from $3.76–$3.84 to $3.81-$3.87, compared to the analyst estimate of $3.85 [2]. - Ollie's Bargain Outlet also increased its 2025 sales guidance from $2.631 -$2.644 billion to $2.648 -$2.655 billion, against the consensus of $2.644 billion [2]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, Ollie's Bargain shares fell 0.3% to trade at $113.79 [3]. - Analysts adjusted their price targets for Ollie's Bargain after the earnings report, with UBS lowering its target from $141 to $130 and Piper Sandler cutting its target from $150 to $140 [4].

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) reported mixed results for Q3 fiscal 2025, with revenues slightly below estimates but earnings exceeding expectations, showing year-over-year improvement in both metrics [1][10] - The company raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook, indicating strong momentum from Q3 and a positive start to Q4 [2] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings were 75 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents and reflecting a 29.3% increase from 58 cents in the prior year [3][10] - Net sales increased by 18.6% to $613.6 million, driven by new store openings and solid comparable-store performance, although it fell short of the $616 million estimate [4][10] - Comparable-store sales grew by 3.3%, supported by mid-single-digit growth in transactions, despite a lower average ticket price [4] Category Performance - Key performing categories included food, seasonal items, hardware, stationery, and lawn & garden, with management noting that retail consolidation and improved deal flow in consumables enhanced traffic and customer acquisition [5] Margin Analysis - Gross profit rose by 18.3% to $253.7 million, while gross margin slightly decreased by 10 basis points to 41.3% due to higher supply-chain costs [6] - SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales improved by 50 basis points to 29.4%, reflecting lower professional fees and optimized marketing expenditures [7] - Operating income increased by 24.5% to $55.4 million, with operating margin expanding by 40 basis points to 9% [8] Store Expansion - The company opened 32 new stores in the quarter, bringing the total to 645 stores, an 18.1% increase year-over-year, and completed 86 store openings year-to-date, exceeding the initial target of 75 [9] Customer Engagement - Membership in the loyalty program, Ollie's Army, grew by 11.8% to 16.6 million members, with significant growth among younger and higher-income demographics [11] Financial Position - Ollie's Bargain ended the quarter with $432.2 million in total cash and investments, a 42.2% year-over-year increase, maintaining a debt-light balance sheet [12] - The company repurchased $12 million worth of stock, with $293 million remaining under its current authorization [13] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2025, net sales are projected between $2,648 million and $2,655 million, with comparable store sales growth forecasted at 3.2% to 3.5% [14] - Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $3.81 to $3.87 per share, an increase from the previous outlook [15]

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet is experiencing significant growth and is expected to outperform its guidance in the upcoming quarters, despite a recent stock price pullback [2][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a record quarterly net revenue of $613.6 million, representing an 18.6% increase year-over-year (YOY) [3]. - The growth was driven by an 18% YOY increase in new stores and a 3.3% increase in comparable sales, attributed to higher transaction volume [3]. - Operating income grew at an accelerated pace of 24.5%, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at 75 cents, up 30% YOY, exceeding expectations by 270 basis points [4]. Margin Analysis - Gross margin contracted by 10 basis points, but this was offset by a 50-basis-point improvement in selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, resulting in a 40-basis-point increase in operating margin [4]. - The overall operational quality and leverage improvements contributed positively to the financial results, despite higher input costs associated with new store openings [4]. Growth Outlook - Management has increased targets for store count growth, revenue, and earnings, with the low end of the revenue range above previous highs and the earnings midpoint improved by 100 basis points [4]. - The company is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, claiming market share and accelerating on a YOY basis [3][5]. Market Sentiment - Analysts and institutions are accumulating Ollie's stock, indicating strong market support, and the December price pullback is viewed as a sign of market capitulation, likely leading to a rebound in early 2026 [5].

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported third-quarter earnings of $0.75 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.73, while revenue was slightly below estimates at $613.6 million compared to the forecast of $614.56 million [1] - The company experienced a year-over-year sales increase of 18.6%, driven by strong new-store growth and a 3.3% rise in comparable sales [1] Store Expansion and Loyalty Program - Ollie's opened a record 32 new stores during the quarter, bringing the total to 645 locations across 34 states, marking an 18.1% increase from the previous year [2] - The Ollie's Army loyalty program grew by 11.8%, reaching 16.6 million members [2] Financial Performance and Outlook - Operating income increased by 24.5% to $55.4 million, with an operating margin improvement of 40 basis points to 9.0% [2] - The company raised its full-year revenue outlook to between $2.648 billion and $2.655 billion, surpassing previous forecasts and market estimates [3] - Adjusted EPS guidance was also increased to a range of $3.81 to $3.87, up from the prior guidance of $3.76 to $3.84 [3] Future Plans - For fiscal 2026, Ollie's plans to open 75 new stores, primarily in the first half of the year [3]

Store Operations and Expansion - Ollie's operates 645 retail stores across 34 states as of November 1, 2025[82] - The average store size is slightly above 32,000 square feet, with a target upfront cash investment of approximately $1 million per new store[83] - The company aims for new stores to achieve net sales of approximately $4 million and a four-wall profit margin in the mid-teens percentage rate[83] - Ollie's plans to expand its distribution capabilities to support up to approximately 750 stores with the addition of a fourth distribution center[84] - The growth strategy includes opening new stores and acquiring locations from distressed retailers, focusing on contiguous market expansion[82] - Ollie's anticipates that new store growth will be the primary driver of sales growth, with initial lease terms averaging seven years[92] - The company opened 32 stores in Q3 fiscal 2025, compared to 24 store openings in Q3 fiscal 2024, with 23 of the new stores being bankruptcy acquired leases[113] Financial Performance - Net sales increased by 18.6% to $613.6 million in Q3 fiscal 2025 from $517.4 million in Q3 fiscal 2024, driven by new store growth and an increase in comparable store sales[120] - Comparable store sales rose by 3.3% in Q3 fiscal 2025 compared to a 0.5% decrease in Q3 fiscal 2024, primarily due to an increase in the number of transactions[121] - Gross profit increased by 18.3% to $253.7 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, while gross margin decreased by 10 basis points to 41.3%[122] - Net sales increased 16.6% to $1.870 billion for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025, compared to $1.605 billion for the same period in 2024[129] - Comparable store sales rose 3.7% in the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025, compared to a 2.8% increase in the prior year[130] - Gross profit increased 18.6% to $762.0 million, with gross margin rising 70 basis points to 40.8%[131] - Net income increased by 28.7% to $46.2 million in Q3 fiscal 2025 from $35.9 million in Q3 fiscal 2024[127] - Net income rose 18.2% to $155.0 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025, compared to $131.2 million in the prior year[137] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $72.9 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, an increase of 21.8% from $59.8 million in Q3 fiscal 2024[128] - Adjusted EBITDA increased 17.3% to $238.8 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025[138] Expenses and Profitability - Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses are expected to increase as the store base grows, with a focus on maintaining discipline in monitoring SG&A as a percentage of net sales[103] - SG&A expenses rose to $180.3 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, an increase of 16.7%, but decreased as a percentage of net sales to 29.4%[123] - SG&A expenses increased 17.6% to $520.6 million, representing 27.8% of net sales, up from 27.6%[132] - Pre-opening expenses increased by 3.2% to $7.4 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, driven by new store growth and dark rent associated with bankruptcy acquired stores[124] - Pre-opening expenses surged 58.9% to $23.0 million, driven by new store growth and dark rent expenses[133] Cash Flow and Capital Management - Net cash provided by operating activities was $114.2 million, up from $79.7 million in the prior year[148] - Capital expenditures for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025, were $83.9 million, down from $96.2 million in the previous year[139] - The company repurchased 346,032 shares for $40.2 million during the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025[146] Tax and Interest - Income tax expense increased to $13.8 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, with an effective tax rate of 23.0% compared to 26.1% in Q3 fiscal 2024[126] - Interest income, net increased to $4.5 million in Q3 fiscal 2025 from $4.0 million in Q3 fiscal 2024, attributed to higher average cash and cash equivalent balances[125] Profitability Metrics - Gross profit is calculated as net sales minus cost of sales, with gross margin being a key performance indicator[98]

Group 1 - The article discusses the upgrade of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) stock to a Buy rating in 2024 due to its growth and valuation mix combination [1] - Since the upgrade, OLLI shares have rallied approximately 25% [1] - The investment team, BAD BEAT Investing, has a history of providing investment opportunities and has been predominantly long since May 2020 [1] Group 2 - BAD BEAT Investing focuses on short- and medium-term investments, income generation, special situations, and momentum trades [1] - The team emphasizes teaching investors to become proficient traders through their playbook and provides in-depth research with clear entry and exit targets [1] - Benefits of BAD BEAT Investing include learning market dynamics, receiving weekly trade ideas, and access to trading tools and chat rooms [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the upgrade of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) stock to a Buy rating in 2024 due to its growth and valuation mix combination [1] - Since the upgrade, OLLI shares have rallied approximately 25% [1] - The investment team, BAD BEAT Investing, has a history of providing investment opportunities and has been predominantly long since May 2020 [1] Group 2 - BAD BEAT Investing focuses on short- and medium-term investments, income generation, special situations, and momentum trades [1] - The team emphasizes teaching investors to become proficient traders through their research and playbook [1] - Benefits of BAD BEAT Investing include access to well-researched trade ideas, chat rooms, daily analyst summaries, and trading tools [1]

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported revenue of $613.62 million for the quarter ended October 2025, marking an 18.6% year-over-year increase and an EPS of $0.75 compared to $0.58 a year ago [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $615.68 million by 0.33%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.71 by 5.63% [1] Financial Performance - Comparable store sales change was 3.3%, slightly below the estimated 3.8% by analysts [4] - The number of stores at the end of the period was 645, surpassing the average estimate of 640 [4] - The company opened 32 new stores, exceeding the average estimate of 27 [4] - Average Net Sales per Store were $0.95 million, below the average estimate of $0.99 million [4] Stock Performance - Ollie's Bargain Outlet shares have returned -6.1% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.9% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance against the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 19% to $614 million, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth [18] - Comparable store sales rose by 3.3%, supported by a mid-single-digit increase in transactions, partially offset by a decrease in average ticket price [18] - Adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share increased by 29% to $46 million and $0.75, respectively [19] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 22% to $73 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin increase of 30 basis points to 11.9% [19] - Total cash and investments rose by 42% to $432 million, with no meaningful long-term debt [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 32 new stores in Q3, totaling 645 stores, representing an 18% year-over-year growth [17] - Membership in the Ollie's Army loyalty program increased by 12% to 16.6 million members, driven by new customer acquisition [17] - The top five performing categories were food, seasonal, hardware, stationery, and lawn and garden [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strength in higher-income consumers, particularly those with household incomes above $100,000, while lower-income consumers showed some softness [31] - The company is benefiting from a challenging retail environment, which has led to increased deal flow and customer acquisition [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term target is to reach 1,300 stores, with a commitment to a minimum of 10% annual unit growth [7] - The company is focusing on customer acquisition and loyalty through the Ollie's Army program, which has seen a 30% year-over-year increase in new memberships [9] - The marketing strategy is shifting towards a digital-first approach, reallocating resources from traditional print to digital media [14][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning, citing strong deal flow, expanding customer base, and widening price gaps [26] - The company raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook based on better-than-expected Q3 results and a strong start to Q4 [6][17] - Management acknowledged the challenges in the retail environment but emphasized the opportunities for growth and market share capture [15] Other Important Information - The company plans to expand its Texas distribution center by 150,000 sq ft and increase service capacity by approximately 50 stores [15] - Capital expenditures totaled $31 million for the quarter, primarily for new store openings and the build-out of acquired stores [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you frame out the state of your consumer in light of your basket commentary? - Management noted strength in higher-income consumers and some softness in lower-income consumers, potentially due to external factors like government shutdowns [31] Question: Could you elaborate on the components of the third-quarter comp? - Management reported a positive 3.3% comp, with mid-single-digit positive transaction trends and a decline in average ticket price [37][38] Question: Can you talk about customer acquisition trends? - Management highlighted strong customer acquisition, particularly among younger demographics, and noted good retention rates in the Ollie's Army program [46] Question: What are your thoughts on SG&A levers? - Management indicated a focus on leveraging SG&A through operational efficiencies and anticipated benefits from new store openings [53] Question: How are new stores performing, particularly those in bankruptcy locations? - New store performance has been strong, with many stores outperforming expectations, especially those near closed Big Lots locations [71] Question: What are the margin implications of direct sourcing versus closeout? - Management confirmed that seasonal gifts are a mix of direct sourcing and closeouts, with direct sourcing generally yielding better margins [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 19% to $614 million, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth [18] - Comparable store sales increased by 3.3%, supported by a mid-single-digit increase in transactions, partially offset by a decrease in average ticket price [18] - Adjusted net income rose by 29% to $46 million, with adjusted earnings per share increasing to $0.75 [19] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 22% to $73 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.9% [19] - Total cash and investments increased by 42% to $432 million, with no meaningful long-term debt [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 32 new stores in Q3, totaling 645 stores, representing an 18% year-over-year growth [17] - Membership in the Ollie's Army loyalty program increased by 12% to 16.6 million members, driven by new customer acquisition [17] - The top five performing categories were food, seasonal, hardware, stationery, and lawn and garden [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strength in higher-income consumers, particularly those with household incomes above $100,000, while lower-income consumers showed some softness [31] - The company is benefiting from a challenging retail environment, allowing it to secure attractive second-generation real estate sites [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term target is to reach 1,300 stores, with a commitment to a minimum of 10% annual unit growth [7] - The company is focusing on customer acquisition and loyalty through the Ollie's Army program, which has seen a 30% year-over-year increase in new memberships [9] - The marketing strategy is shifting towards a digital-first approach, reallocating resources from print to digital media [14][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning, citing strong deal flow, expanding customer base, and widening price gaps [26] - The company raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook based on better-than-expected Q3 results and a strong start to Q4 [6][22] - Management acknowledged the challenges in the retail environment but emphasized the opportunities for growth and market share capture [15] Other Important Information - The company plans to expand its Texas distribution center by 150,000 sq ft and increase service capacity by approximately 50 stores [15] - Capital expenditures totaled $31 million for the quarter, primarily for new store openings and the build-out of acquired stores [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you frame out the state of your consumer in light of your basket commentary? - Management noted strength in higher-income consumers and some softness in lower-income consumers, potentially due to external factors like government shutdowns [31] Question: Could you elaborate on the components of the third-quarter comp? - Management reported a positive 3.3% comp, with mid-single-digit positive transaction trends, while basket size declined due to lower average unit retail [37] Question: Can you talk about customer acquisition trends? - Management highlighted strong customer acquisition, particularly among younger demographics, and noted that retention rates are also strong [46] Question: What are your thoughts on the 2026 comp build? - Management indicated that they expect to maintain a traditional 1%-2% comp guidance while acknowledging potential tailwinds from market conditions [96] Question: How are new stores performing, especially those in bankruptcy locations? - New store performance has been strong, with many stores outperforming expectations, particularly those near closed Big Lots locations [68]