Core Insights - BAD BEAT Investing, led by Quad 7 Capital, has been providing investment opportunities for nearly 12 years, focusing on both long and short trades [1] - The team is recognized for their February 2020 recommendation to sell everything and go short, maintaining an average position of 95% long and 5% short since May 2020 [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes short- and medium-term investments, income generation, special situations, and momentum trades [1] Group 1 - The company comprises a team of 7 analysts with diverse expertise in business, policy, economics, mathematics, game theory, and sciences [1] - BAD BEAT Investing aims to educate investors to become proficient traders through a comprehensive playbook, providing in-depth research with clear entry and exit targets [1] - The firm has a proven track record of success in its investment strategies [1] Group 2 - Benefits of BAD BEAT Investing include understanding market dynamics, executing well-researched trade ideas weekly, and access to multiple chat rooms [2] - Subscribers receive daily summaries of key analyst upgrades and downgrades, along with learning opportunities in basic options trading and access to extensive trading tools [2]

Financial Performance - Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported revenue of $576.77 million for the quarter ended April 2025, reflecting a 13.4% increase year-over-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.75, up from $0.73 in the same quarter last year [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $564.69 million by 2.14% [1] - The company delivered an EPS surprise of 7.14%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.70 [1] Key Metrics - Comparable store sales increased by 2.6%, surpassing the average estimate of 1.4% from six analysts [4] - The total number of stores at the end of the period was 584, compared to the average estimate of 580 based on four analysts [4] - The company opened 25 new stores, exceeding the average estimate of 21 from four analysts [4] - The average net sales per store was $1.01 million, slightly above the three-analyst average estimate of $1 million [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Ollie's Bargain Outlet have returned 0.9% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by 4.6% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported quarterly earnings of $0.75 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.70 per share, and showing an increase from $0.73 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 7.14% [1] - The company posted revenues of $576.77 million for the quarter ended April 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.14%, and up from $508.82 million in the same quarter last year [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Ollie's Bargain Outlet shares have increased approximately 2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.9% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.89 on revenues of $654.15 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.72 on revenues of $2.57 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Consumer Products - Staples industry, to which Ollie's Bargain Outlet belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 42% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges in performance compared to higher-ranked industries [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 13% to $577 million, driven by new store openings and an increase in comparable store sales growth [19][22] - Adjusted net income was $46.1 million, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.75 [22] - Adjusted EBITDA was $72.2 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.5% for the quarter [22] - Gross margin remained flat at 41.1%, slightly ahead of expectations [21][22] - SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales increased by 60 basis points to 28.6% due to higher medical and casualty claims and new store growth [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales increased by 2.6%, driven by an increase in transactions [20] - The best-performing categories included food, hardware, electronics, domestics, and housewares [20] - Ollie's Army membership grew by over 9% to 15.5 million members, with sales to members representing over 80% of total sales [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 25 new stores in the first quarter, a record for any period in its history, ending with a total of 584 stores, a 13% year-over-year increase [19][20] - The closeout market remains fluid, with significant retail store closures creating excess inventory opportunities [9][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on aggressive market share acquisition through accelerated store growth, enhanced digital marketing, and the Ollie's Army loyalty program [11][12] - The company aims to maintain its value proposition and price gaps, especially on brand-name items, while reducing reliance on Chinese imports [43][125] - The company is investing in its people and enhancing customer acquisition and retention strategies [27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating a dynamic environment and reaffirmed the financial outlook for the fiscal year [15][25] - The company anticipates continued strong deal flow due to retail store closures and supply chain disruptions [9][11] - Management expects second quarter comparable store sales to be at the lower end of the 1% to 2% range, with strong core comp trends in non-seasonal categories [26][99] Other Important Information - The company completed the initial rollout of a co-branded credit card, seeing strong spending and shopping frequency [13] - A new private shopping event for Ollie's Army members is planned, enhancing the loyalty program [14][68] Q&A Session Summary Question: State of closeout availability and impact of tariffs - Management noted strong deal flow and a 16% increase in inventory, with expectations for more product availability due to supply chain disruptions and retail bankruptcies [32][33] Question: Traffic trends and confidence in second quarter comps - Traffic has been strong, with a core comp running in the low to mid single-digit range, despite some seasonal impacts [35][36] Question: Impact of tariffs on supplier negotiations and pricing - Management emphasized maintaining value propositions and price gaps while working closely with vendors to mitigate tariff impacts [41][42] Question: Real estate opportunities and store openings - The pipeline for new store openings is strong, with expectations for above-average growth in 2026 [50][51] Question: Impact of Big Lots closures on comps - The liquidation of Big Lots stores had a 50 basis point impact on comps, but stores that closed prior to Christmas are seeing low to mid single-digit lifts [55][56] Question: Cadence of comps and Ollie's Army Night - Comps improved significantly in March, and the new Ollie's Army Night is expected to enhance customer loyalty and drive sales [65][68] Question: Gross margin expectations and tariff impacts - Management expects gross margins to follow a seasonal flow, targeting 40% for the year, with some tariff impacts already included [70][71] Question: Pricing strategy amidst competition - The company is committed to maintaining price gaps and is actively sourcing products to ensure value for customers [75][76] Question: Ollie's Army membership growth and performance - Newer stores are seeing higher conversion rates to Ollie's Army membership, benefiting from customer familiarity with loyalty programs [87][88]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 13% to $577 million, driven by new store openings and an increase in comparable store sales growth [17] - Adjusted net income was $46.1 million, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.75 [21] - Gross margin remained flat at 41.1%, slightly ahead of expectations, while SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales increased by 60 basis points to 28.6% [19][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales grew by 2.6%, driven by an increase in transactions [18] - The company opened 25 new stores in the first quarter, a record for any period in its history, bringing the total to 584 stores, a 13% year-over-year increase [17][20] - Ollie's Army membership increased by over 9% to 15.5 million members, with sales to members representing over 80% of total sales [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The closeout market remains fluid, with significant retail store closures creating excess inventory and strong deal flow [7][9] - Demand for consumer staples was consistently strong, while certain seasonal categories were impacted by weather [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is aggressively pursuing market share by accelerating store growth, expanding digital marketing capabilities, and enhancing the Ollie's Army customer loyalty program [10][26] - The strategic focus includes investing in people and delivering extraordinary value to consumers [26] - The company plans to maintain its gross margin target of 40% and expects to open 75 new stores in the fiscal year [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the current complex environment and reaffirmed the financial outlook for the fiscal year [14] - The company anticipates significant product and market share opportunities due to retail store closures and supply chain disruptions [9][10] - Management expects second quarter comparable store sales growth to be at the lower end of the 1% to 2% range [25] Other Important Information - The company completed the initial rollout of a co-branded credit card, seeing strong spending and shopping frequency [12] - A new private shopping event for Ollie's Army members is planned, enhancing the loyalty program [13][66] Q&A Session Summary Question: State of closeout availability and impact of tariffs - Management noted strong deal flow and access to product pipelines due to retail bankruptcies and store closures, with expectations for increased product availability in the back half of the year [31][33] Question: Traffic trends and confidence in second quarter comps - Traffic has been strong, with core comps running in the low to mid single-digit range, despite some impact from seasonal categories [35][36] Question: Impact of tariffs on supplier negotiations and pricing - Management emphasized maintaining value propositions and price gaps, while reducing reliance on Chinese imports [40][42] Question: Real estate opportunities and store openings - The pipeline for new store openings is strong, with expectations for above-average growth in 2026 [50] Question: Impact of Big Lots closures on comps - The liquidation of Big Lots stores had a minor impact on comps, with some stores seeing a low to mid single-digit lift [54][55] Question: Cadence of comps and Ollie's Army Night - The company expects the Ollie's Army Night to provide a slight lift, though not at the same level as the December event [90][91] Question: Gross margin expectations and tariff impact - Management anticipates gross margin to follow a seasonal flow, targeting 40% for the year, with some tariff impact already included [70][71] Question: Pricing strategy amidst tariff pressures - The company remains committed to maintaining price gaps and is closely monitoring competitor pricing strategies [74][76] Question: Ollie's Army membership growth and performance - Newer stores are seeing higher conversion rates to Ollie's Army membership, benefiting from customer familiarity with loyalty programs [86][88]

Financial Performance - Net sales increased by 13.4% to $576.8 million, compared to $508.8 million in the same quarter last year[2] - Adjusted net income per diluted share was $0.75, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.7%[7] - Adjusted net income increased to $46,073 thousand in Q1 2025, up from $45,210 thousand in Q1 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.9%[18] - The net income per diluted share increased to $0.77 in Q1 2025 from $0.75 in Q1 2024, representing a growth of 2.7%[18] Store Performance - Comparable store sales rose by 2.6%, driven by an increase in transactions[7] - The number of stores open at the end of the period rose to 584 in Q1 2025, compared to 516 in Q1 2024, indicating a year-over-year store growth of 13.2%[19] - Comparable store sales change was 2.6% in Q1 2025, slightly down from 3.0% in Q1 2024[19] - The average net sales per store rose to $1,005 in Q1 2025 from $993 in Q1 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.2%[19] Outlook and Projections - The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 earnings outlook, projecting net sales between $2.579 billion and $2.599 billion[6] - The projected increase in comparable store sales for fiscal 2025 is between 1.4% and 2.2%[6] Cash and Investments - Cash and cash equivalents, along with short-term investments, totaled $369.5 million, with a total cash and investment position of $414.9 million, up 21.5% year over year[7] - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments increased to $369,508 thousand in Q1 2025 from $341,500 thousand in Q1 2024, marking a rise of 8.2%[19] Expenses and Margins - Gross margin remained flat at 41.1%, with lower supply chain costs offset by a decrease in merchandise margin[7] - Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales increased by 60 basis points to 28.6%[7] Share Repurchases - The company invested $17.1 million to repurchase 159,757 shares of its common stock, with $315.5 million remaining for future repurchases[7] - Share repurchases totaled $17,107 thousand in Q1 2025, down from $25,007 thousand in Q1 2024[19] Operating Activities - Net cash provided by operating activities decreased to $28,702 thousand in Q1 2025 from $40,184 thousand in Q1 2024, representing a decline of 28.8%[17] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures were $26,740 thousand in Q1 2025, slightly down from $26,865 thousand in Q1 2024[19] EBITDA - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $72,159 thousand, compared to $69,431 thousand in Q1 2024, showing an increase of 3.9%[18]

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. reported strong financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with net sales increasing by 13.4% year-over-year to $576.8 million, driven by new store openings and an increase in comparable store sales [2][5][4] - The company opened 25 new stores during the quarter, including 18 former Big Lots locations, bringing the total number of stores to 584, a 13.2% increase from the previous year [5][4] - The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 earnings outlook, maintaining expectations for net sales between $2.579 billion and $2.599 billion and comparable store sales growth of 1.4% to 2.2% [6][7] Financial Performance - Net income for the quarter was $47.6 million, or $0.77 per diluted share, compared to $46.3 million, or $0.75 per diluted share, in the same quarter last year [4][16] - Adjusted net income per diluted share increased to $0.75, up from $0.73 year-over-year, reflecting a 2.7% increase [5][21] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $72.2 million, representing a margin of 12.5% of net sales [11][21] Operational Highlights - Comparable store sales increased by 2.6%, driven by a rise in transactions, although this was slightly lower than the 3.0% increase in the prior year [5][4] - The gross margin remained flat at 41.1%, with lower supply chain costs offset by a decrease in merchandise margin due to changes in product mix [5][4] - Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses as a percentage of sales rose to 28.6%, primarily due to higher medical and casualty claims [5][4] Store Expansion - The company ended the quarter with a total of 584 stores across 32 states, marking a significant expansion from 516 stores a year earlier [5][23] - The new store openings included 18 locations acquired through the bankruptcy auction of Big Lots, highlighting the company's strategic growth initiatives [5][4] Cash and Investments - The company reported cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $369.5 million, an increase of 21.5% year-over-year [11][23] - Ollie's invested $17.1 million in share repurchases during the quarter, with $315.5 million remaining available for future repurchases under the current authorization [11][23]

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet is set to release its first-quarter earnings results, with expectations of a slight decline in earnings per share and an increase in revenue compared to the previous year [1]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to report quarterly earnings at 71 cents per share, down from 73 cents per share in the same period last year [1]. - Quarterly revenue is expected to reach $565.75 million, an increase from $508.82 million a year earlier [1]. - In the fourth quarter, adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.19, aligning with analyst consensus, while quarterly sales were $667.1 million, which was a 2.8% year-over-year increase but fell short of the consensus estimate of $674.5 million [2]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Keybanc analyst Bradley Thomas maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $125 to $135 [9]. - JP Morgan analyst Matthew Boss also maintained an Overweight rating, raising the price target from $135 to $137 [9]. - Piper Sandler analyst Peter Keith maintained an Overweight rating but reduced the price target from $126 to $124 [9]. - UBS analyst Mark Carden maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $117 to $123 [9]. - Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman maintained an Equal-Weight rating and increased the price target from $108 to $118 [9].

Key Takeaways OLLI is expected to report Q1 revenues of $564.7M, up 11% year over year. OLLI's earnings per share are projected at $0.70, marking a 4.1% decline from the prior year. Strong loyalty growth, store expansion and vendor ties fuel sales, but rising costs may hurt OLLI's margins.Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on June 3, before the opening bell. OLLI is likely to have registered an increase in the top line. The Zacks Consensus E ...

Wall Street analysts expect Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) to post quarterly earnings of $0.70 per share in its upcoming report, which indicates a year-over-year decline of 4.1%. Revenues are expected to be $564.69 million, up 11% from the year-ago quarter.The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this timeframe.Before a company reveals its earnings, it ...