Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) has experienced a stock increase of 10.8% in the past month, driven by strong financial results and growth strategies, raising questions about potential further upside or if the stock has peaked [1] Financial Performance - The stock closed at $114.48, which is 4.6% below its 52-week high of $120.03 reached on December 20, 2024 [5] - OLLI's stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [5] - The company reported comparable store sales growth of 2.8% in the final quarter [10] Growth Strategy - Ollie's Army membership has grown to over 15.1 million active members, contributing to more than 80% of sales [9] - The company opened 13 new stores in the fourth quarter and a total of 50 stores throughout fiscal 2024, with plans to open 75 new stores in fiscal 2025 [11] - Management projects fiscal 2025 net sales between $2,564 million and $2,586 million, an increase from $2,271.7 million in fiscal 2024 [12] Market Position - OLLI's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 29.89, significantly higher than the industry average of 20.94 and the S&P 500's 19.85 [16] - The stock is trading above its median P/E level of 27.38 observed over the past year [16] Challenges - The company faces macroeconomic challenges, including inflationary pressures and uncertain consumer spending, which may impact demand [13] - There are expectations of comparable store sales growth of only 1% in the first and second quarters of fiscal 2025 due to tougher year-over-year comparisons [13] - Increased upfront costs associated with new store openings, including $5 million in dark rent expenses, may pressure near-term margins [14]

Store Expansion and Growth - Store count increased from 388 to 559, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5%[26] - The company plans to expand its store base significantly, with potential for over 1,300 national locations[31] - As of February 1, 2025, the company operated 559 stores, with a target to increase to over 1,300 locations based on internal estimates[53][58] - The company plans to open 75 new stores in the upcoming year, prioritizing locations acquired through bankruptcy auctions[55] - The company opened 50 new stores in the last fiscal year, totaling 227 new stores over the past five fiscal years, indicating ongoing expansion efforts[115] Financial Performance - Net sales rose from $1.809 billion to $2.272 billion, achieving a CAGR of 5.9%[26] - Comparable store sales grew at an average rate of 2.0% per year[26] - The company targets first-year annual new store sales of approximately $4.0 million, with a consistent payback period of about two years for new stores[62] - Average annual net sales per store were reported at $4.3 million over the past five years[209] - From 2020 to 2024, net sales grew at a CAGR of 5.9%, with plans for continued growth through new store openings and quality merchandise[214] Customer Engagement and Loyalty - Ollie's Army loyalty program reached 15.1 million members, with over 82% of sales coming from these members in 2024[28] - The company launched a co-branded credit card to enhance the Ollie's Army loyalty program and increase customer spending[34] - Ollie's Army loyalty program has 15.1 million members, accounting for over 82% of net sales, with members spending approximately 40% more per shopping trip than non-members[69] - The company announced a partnership with Sunbit to launch a co-branded Visa® credit card, which aims to enhance customer loyalty but poses reputational risks if not executed properly[128] Merchandise and Supplier Relationships - Brand name closeout merchandise accounted for approximately 65% of the retail value of 2024 merchandise purchases[23] - Non-closeout and private label products accounted for approximately 35% of the retail value of merchandise purchases in 2024[45] - The company aims to enhance supplier relationships to increase the assortment of brand name closeout products[33] - The company sources from over 1,200 suppliers, with an average relationship of over 15 years with the top 15 suppliers[49] - The company’s competitive advantage lies in direct buying relationships with major manufacturers, which enhances access to brand name closeout products[216] Operational Efficiency and Distribution - The company operates four distribution centers, supplying approximately 95% of merchandise to stores, with the newest center in Princeton, IL supporting up to 750 stores[51][52] - The company maintains distribution centers in York, PA, Commerce, GA, Lancaster, TX, and Princeton, IL, to support existing and new stores, with potential risks of processing delays affecting inventory and sales growth[119] - The company has invested in expanding its distribution network to 3.0 million square feet and enhancing information technology systems[212] Workforce and Culture - As of February 1, 2025, the company employed over 12,800 associates, with approximately 60% self-identified female and over 40% from racial or ethnic minority backgrounds[82] - The company has a "promote-from-within" culture, with over 60% of current district team leaders and field positions filled by internal promotions in 2024[85] - The company is committed to providing market-competitive compensation and offers various bonus incentive programs based on performance[86] - The company faces challenges in attracting and retaining qualified associates in stores and distribution centers, which may affect sales and operational performance[123] Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to supply chain disruptions, which could impact inventory availability and customer satisfaction[97] - Labor shortages and increased turnover have led to higher costs, including overtime and wage increases, which could negatively impact operational efficiency[110] - The company faces intense competition from a variety of retailers, which could limit growth opportunities and adversely affect financial performance[111] - Future increases in costs, such as labor and shipping rates, may reduce profitability due to the company's low-price model[103] - The company may struggle to retain customer loyalty, particularly among members of Ollie's Army, due to intensified competition and alternative shopping options[117] Cybersecurity and Compliance - The company’s cybersecurity program includes regular assessments and testing of policies to address cybersecurity threats[179] - The company maintains a comprehensive cybersecurity program, including incident response and recovery plans that are regularly tested[190] - The company is compliant with PCI standards, but future compliance may incur additional expenses and challenges[144] - Data protection requirements are increasing operating costs, and breaches could lead to significant fines and reputational damage[147] Financial Management and Stock Performance - The company has a five-year $100.0 million revolving credit facility, with $85.8 million of borrowing availability as of February 1, 2025[170] - The stock price fluctuated from a high of $120.03 to a low of $68.05 during the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025[164] - The company has authorized a share repurchase program with an aggregate of $400 million, with approximately $32.7 million remaining as of the end of the 2024 fiscal year[176] - The company does not expect to pay any cash dividends for the foreseeable future due to substantial funding requirements for business operations[166]

Ollie's Bargain Outlet TodayOLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet$105.22 -2.72 (-2.52%) 52-Week Range$68.05▼$120.03P/E Ratio31.41Price Target$123.08Add to WatchlistOllie’s Bargain Outlet NASDAQ: OLLI experienced a game-changing event with Big Lots' bankruptcy. The company is rushing to fill the void, having already acquired more than 60 location leases and planning to accelerate its store openings. The new guidance includes a 50% increase in expected 2025 store openings to 75, a 13% increase that amplifies the long-t ...

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) posted fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results, wherein both the top and bottom lines fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate. While net sales increased, earnings decreased from the year-ago period’s actuals. This Harrisburg, PA-based company witnessed an uptick in comparable store sales.OLLI’s Quarterly Performance: Key Metrics & InsightsThis extreme-value retailer of brand-name merchandise posted adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus E ...

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. OLLI reported in-line earnings for the fourth quarter on Wednesday.The company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.19, in line with the analyst consensus estimate. Quarterly sales of $667.1 million (up 2.8% year over year) missed the analyst consensus estimate of $674.5 million.Comparable store sales increased 2.8% from the prior year's increase of 3.9%."With so many retailers closing stores or going bankrupt in the past year, there are a considera ...

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call March 19, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Eric van der Valk - President & Chief Executive Officer Robert Helm - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Steven Zaccone - Citi Chuck Grom - Gordon Haskett Alexia Morgan - Piper Sandler Matthew Boss - JPMorgan Brad Thomas - KeyBanc Capital Markets Lauren Ng - Morgan Stanley Scot Ciccarelli - Truist Securities Kate McShane - Goldman Sa ...

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported revenue of $667.08 million for the quarter ended January 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.8% but a revenue surprise of -0.75% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $672.11 million [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $1.19, down from $1.23 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of -0.83% against the consensus estimate of $1.20 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Comparable store sales increased by 2.8%, slightly above the average estimate of 2.6% based on six analysts [4] - The total number of stores at the end of the period remained at 559, matching the average estimate from four analysts [4] - The company opened 13 new stores, consistent with the average estimate of 13 from four analysts [4] - The average net sales per store were $1.20 million, below the average estimate of $1.24 million from three analysts [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Ollie's Bargain Outlet have returned -9.4%, compared to a -8.3% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Performance - Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported quarterly earnings of $1.19 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.20 per share, and down from $1.23 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -0.83% [1] - The company posted revenues of $667.08 million for the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.75%, compared to $648.95 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Ollie's has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - Ollie's Bargain Outlet shares have declined approximately 9.7% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has decreased by 4.5% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for the stock is 3 (Hold), indicating that shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.76 on revenues of $572.98 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.76 on revenues of $2.57 billion [7] - The outlook for the Consumer Products - Staples industry, where Ollie's operates, is currently in the bottom 40% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net sales increase of 3% to $667 million for the fourth quarter, driven by new stores and comparable sales growth, with an 8.5% increase when excluding the impact of the previous year's extra week of sales [11][12] - Adjusted net income was $73 million, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.19, and adjusted EBITDA at $109 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.4% for the quarter [15][16] - Gross margin increased by 20 basis points to 40.7%, primarily due to lower supply chain costs, although there was a slight decrease in merchandise margin driven by product mix [13][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales growth for the fourth quarter was 2.8%, with increases in both transactions and basket size [11][12] - The best-performing categories included housewares, food and candy, electronics, and room air [11] - Membership in "Ali's Army" increased over 8% to over 15.1 million members, with sales to members representing over 80% of total sales [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the quarter with 559 stores across 31 states, marking a 9% year-over-year increase, having opened 13 new stores in the quarter and 50 for the fiscal year [12] - The company is positioned to benefit from the closure of competitors, particularly Big Lots, which presents a significant market share opportunity [37][72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced an agreement to acquire 40 additional store leases from former Big Lots locations, which are expected to generate outsized profitability due to below-market rents and long-term leases [7][19] - The company aims for approximately 75 new store openings in the upcoming fiscal year, with a focus on accelerating growth and capitalizing on market opportunities created by competitors' closures [19][72] - The long-term growth algorithm targets 10% unit growth and 1% to 2% comparable store sales growth, with a gross margin goal of approximately 40% [18][72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumers remain under pressure, which bodes well for the company's value-oriented offerings [5][26] - The company is optimistic about its ability to capture market share from competitors, particularly in light of the recent closures of Big Lots stores [37][72] - Management expressed confidence in the company's operational capacity to support accelerated growth, citing investments in infrastructure and distribution capabilities [88] Other Important Information - The company has initiated a new $300 million share buyback program, reflecting its commitment to returning capital to shareholders while pursuing growth opportunities [17][18] - The company expects to incur approximately $5 million in dark rent related to the acquired Big Lots locations, which will impact earnings in the short term but is seen as a strategic investment for long-term profitability [19][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Assessment of the consumer state and outlook for 2025 - Management indicated that consumers are under pressure but that the company thrives in such environments, with strong performance in consumables driving traffic [25][26] Question: Gross margin expectations for 2025 - Management expects gross margin to remain around 40%, with stable supply chain costs and a focus on reinvesting in customer loyalty [28][29] Question: Impact of Big Lots closures on sales - Management noted that the impact was less than anticipated, with some stores performing better than expected due to fresh inventory [34][36] Question: Progress on private label credit card rollout - The credit card has been rolled out to most stores, with initial indications showing higher basket sizes for credit card customers [41][44] Question: Addressable market from Big Lots closures - Management estimates a $2.7 billion addressable market opportunity from Big Lots closures, with potential to capture a significant share [97] Question: Category performance and pre-opening expenses - Management highlighted strong performance in consumables, while discretionary categories faced challenges due to weather; pre-opening expenses are expected to follow the store opening cadence [114][118]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net sales increase of 3% to $667 million for the fourth quarter, driven by new stores and comparable sales growth, with an 8.5% increase when excluding the impact of last year's extra week of sales [13] - Adjusted net income was $73 million, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.19, and adjusted EBITDA was $109 million with an EBITDA margin of 16.4% for the quarter [16] - Gross margin increased by 20 basis points to 40.7%, primarily due to lower supply chain costs, although slightly offset by a lower merchandise margin [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales grew by 2.8%, driven by equal increases in both transactions and basket size, with strong performance in housewares, food and candy, electronics, and room air categories [13][14] - Membership in "Ali's Army" increased over 8% to over 15.1 million members, with sales to members representing over 80% of total sales [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the quarter with 559 stores across 31 states, marking a 9% year-over-year increase, having opened 13 new stores in the quarter and 50 for the fiscal year [14] - The company is positioned to benefit from the closure of competitors, particularly Big Lots, with an addressable market share opportunity estimated at $2.7 billion [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced an agreement to acquire 40 additional store leases from former Big Lots locations, which are expected to generate outsized profitability due to below-market rents and long-term leases [9] - The company aims to open approximately 75 new stores in the upcoming fiscal year, with a focus on accelerating growth while maintaining a strong balance sheet [20][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumers remain under pressure, which bodes well for the company's value-oriented offerings, and they expect to thrive in this environment [6][27] - The long-term growth algorithm is projected at 10% unit growth, with comparable store sales growth of 1% to 2%, and gross margin expected to remain around 40% [19] Other Important Information - The company has initiated a new $300 million share buyback program, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to investors while pursuing growth opportunities [18] - The company is experiencing a stable business model in the closeout market, with consistent availability of merchandise due to various market drivers [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Assessment of the consumer state and outlook for 2025 - Management indicated that consumers are under pressure but the company thrives in such environments, with strong performance in consumables driving traffic [26][27] Question: Gross margin expectations for 2025 - Management expects gross margin to remain around 40%, with stable supply chain costs and a good buying environment anticipated [29][30] Question: Impact of Big Lots closures on sales - Management noted that the impact was less than expected, with some positive momentum observed post-liquidation [35][37] Question: Progress on private label credit card - The credit card rollout is expected to be completed by the end of Q1, with initial indications showing higher basket sizes for credit card customers [45] Question: Dead rent dynamics and flow-through expectations - Management explained that the acquired stores will incur dead rent, impacting flow-through, but long-term profitability is expected to be strong [50][51] Question: Category performance and sales productivity - Management noted strong performance in consumables, while discretionary categories faced challenges due to weather [114]