每经编辑 毕陆名 当地时间周一，美股主要指数集体收跌，其中标普500指数终结"九连涨"。美国总统特朗普称拟征收电影关税，影视巨头 应声下跌，奈飞早盘一度跌4%，派拉蒙、迪士尼早盘跌超2%，随后跌幅有所收窄。 截至收盘，奈飞收跌1.94%，派拉蒙跌1.57%，迪士尼跌0.41%。 消息面上，据央视新闻6日报道，当地时间5月5日，白宫表示，尚未就电影关税做出"最终"决定。 白宫发言人库什·德赛表示，尽管尚未做出最终决定，但政府正在探索所有方案以履行特朗普的指示。 当地时间5月4日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，他授权美国商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在外 国制作并进入美国的电影征收100%的关税，希望"再次拥有美国制作的电影"。特朗普称，美国电影业正在迅速消亡，好 莱坞正在被美国电影人和电影公司赴海外工作的趋势"摧毁"，这对美国构成"国家安全威胁"。 对此，《纽约时报》4日报道指出，关税措施可能适得其反，伤害美国本土电影，因为许多美国大型电影公司为了降低成 本或获得税收优惠，常常在海外拍摄或进行后期制作。新关税政策将导致这些公司面临更高成本，可能损害它们的全球 竞争力。 好莱坞行业媒体报道说，近年不 ...

白宫称尚未就电影关税做出最终决定。 据央视新闻客户端消息，当地时间5月5日，白宫表示，尚未就电影关税做出"最终"决定。 白宫发言人库什·德赛表示，尽管尚未做出最终决定，但政府正在探索所有方案以履行特朗普的指示。 当地时间5月4日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，他授权美国商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在外国制作并进入美国的电影征收100%的关税， 希望"再次拥有美国制作的电影"。特朗普称，美国电影业正在迅速消亡，好莱坞正在被美国电影人和电影公司赴海外工作的趋势"摧毁"，这对美国构成"国家安全威 胁"。 受此影响，当地时间5月5日，美股流媒体股全线大跌，奈飞、华纳兄弟探索一度跌超4%，收盘跌幅有所收窄，奈飞、华纳兄弟探索收跌近2%，派拉蒙全球收跌超 1.5%，迪士尼收跌约0.4%。 对于特朗普表示将对进口电影征100%关税，《纽约时报》4日报道指出，关税措施可能适得其反，伤害美国本土电影，因为许多美国大型电影公司为了降低成本或 获得税收优惠，常常在海外拍摄或进行后期制作。新关税政策将导致这些公司面临更高成本，可能损害它们的全球竞争力。 好莱坞行业媒体报道说，近年不少美国电影公司前往英国、澳大利亚、加 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Paramount Global-B (PARA) to report quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 51.6%, with revenues projected at $7.1 billion, down 7.6% from the previous year [1]. Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Revenues- TV Media' is $4.45 billion, indicating a decline of 14.9% year-over-year [4]. - 'Revenues- Filmed Entertainment' is estimated at $605.83 million, showing a slight increase of 0.1% from the prior year [4]. - 'Revenues- Direct-to-Consumer' is projected to reach $2.13 billion, reflecting a growth of 13.1% year-over-year [4]. - 'Revenues- Direct-to-Consumer- Advertising' is expected to be $538.94 million, up 3.6% from the previous year [5]. - 'Revenues- Filmed Entertainment- Licensing and Other' is forecasted at $475.92 million, indicating a 5.5% increase year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenues- TV Media- Advertising' is anticipated to be $1.87 billion, down 27.8% from the year-ago quarter [6]. - 'Revenues- TV Media- Affiliate and Subscription' is estimated at $1.85 billion, reflecting a decrease of 7.6% year-over-year [6]. - 'Revenues- TV Media- Licensing and Other' is projected to reach $747.77 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 14.9% [7]. - 'Revenues- Direct-to-Consumer- Subscription' is expected to be $1.62 billion, showing a growth of 19.5% from the prior year [7]. - 'Revenues- Filmed Entertainment- Theatrical' is forecasted at $139.12 million, down 9.1% year-over-year [7]. - 'Revenues- Licensing and Other' is projected to be $1.23 billion, reflecting a 14% increase year-over-year [8]. Subscriber Estimates - Analysts estimate that 'Global Paramount Subscribers' will reach 77.50 million, compared to 71.2 million a year ago [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Paramount Global-B shares have returned +3.3%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change [8].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump proposed a 100% tariff on movies produced overseas, causing a decline in shares of major Hollywood studios and streaming services [1][6]. Group 1: Impact on Companies - Shares of Netflix fell more than 5%, Disney down more than 3%, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) down more than 3%, Paramount down more than 2%, and Comcast down less than 1% following the tariff announcement [6]. - The proposed tariff is seen as a national security threat by Trump, who authorized the Department of Commerce to impose this levy on foreign films [1][2]. Group 2: Production and International Relations - Hollywood studios often film overseas for tax benefits and to utilize international locations, raising questions about how the tariff will be implemented and its potential targets [2][4]. - Concerns exist regarding the impact of these duties on international relationships, as Hollywood relies heavily on global box office sales to recover high production costs [4].

Paramount Global-B (PARA) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 8, 2025, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than e ...

Core Viewpoint - Paramount's board is preparing to negotiate a settlement regarding a lawsuit filed by Trump, who accuses CBS of deceptive editing in an interview with Kamala Harris, a competitor in the 2024 election [1] Group 1: Legal Context - Trump's lawsuit claims that CBS's "60 Minutes" program edited an interview with Kamala Harris in a misleading manner [1] - Legal experts believe the lawsuit is baseless and that CBS is likely to win if it goes to court [1] Group 2: Company Actions - Paramount has indicated readiness to settle the lawsuit, as discussed in a board meeting on April 18 [1] - The board outlined acceptable financial terms for a potential settlement, although the specific amount remains unclear [1]

后来，在美国法律的限制下，好莱坞大制片厂无法再继续垂直掌控电影的各个环节，于是他们开始进行横 向并购。经过几十年的发展，好莱坞的制片厂格局从当年的「5 大 3 小」，逐渐变成了由华纳兄弟、派拉 蒙、索尼、迪士尼和环球组成的好莱坞 5 大传统制片厂。除此之外， 随着流媒体的崛起，制片方式完全不 同的流媒体巨头奈飞，如今也被业内看作是好莱坞巨头之一。 2019 年，总部也设在好莱坞的奈飞，宣布正 式加入美国电影协会（MPAA），成为了协会里的第一位流媒体视频服务成员。 ▲ 好莱坞 5 大传统制片厂 | 图源：Backstage 可以说，在过去几十年里，好莱坞巨头们的命运一直紧密地联系在一起。而最近几年，他们也面临着同样 的挑战。2020 年，疫情重创全球电影产业。疫情结束后，2023 年又迎来了美国编剧工会和演员工会大罢 工，导致 2024 年的好莱坞新片供应不足。 在很多人心目中，好莱坞一直都被看作是美国乃至全球电影工业的代名词。甚至「好莱坞大片」也已经成 为了人们对于美国高水准、大制作电影的一种形容。但最初，好莱坞其实是美国加州的一个市，直到 1910 年，它和洛杉矶市合二为一，好莱坞也就因此成为了洛杉矶市的 ...

Group 1 - Circana, Paramount, and iSpot announced a collaboration to provide "always-on" sales and conversion measurement for consumer packaged goods (CPG) advertisers starting in Q2 2025 [1][2] - This partnership aims to integrate real-time sales and conversion data across Paramount's portfolio, enhancing media transparency and precision for CPG advertisers [2][3] - Paramount becomes the first national television broadcaster to offer CPG advertisers insights into campaign effectiveness, including real-time household engagement and purchasing behaviors [2][3] Group 2 - The collaboration allows CPG advertisers to link in-store sales directly to their advertising investments across Paramount's broadcast, cable, and digital properties [3] - The integration of Circana's daily conversion data into iSpot's platform enables continuous performance data across campaigns, facilitating ongoing learning and optimization [2][3] - iSpot emphasizes that always-on attribution measurement at scale improves tracking and justifying investments, benefiting both buyers and sellers in the advertising ecosystem [3] Group 3 - Circana is recognized as a leading advisor on consumer behavior, providing insights that help brands and retailers unlock business growth [4] - iSpot is a trusted cross-platform TV measurement company that delivers real-time, actionable information for brands, networks, and agencies [5] - Paramount Global is a major media and entertainment company with a diverse portfolio, including CBS, Paramount Pictures, and streaming services like Paramount+ [6][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **High Yield (HY) Telecom, Cable, and Media** sectors, highlighting the competitive landscape and investment needs that are affecting credit outlooks across these industries [11][67]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Cautious Outlook for HY Telecom and Cable**: The overall outlook for HY telecom and cable remains cautious due to intense competition and significant investment needs, which are expected to keep leverage elevated [11][67]. 2. **Media Sector Pressures**: The HY media sector faces secular pressures such as cord-cutting and macroeconomic uncertainties that may adversely impact advertising revenues this year [11][12]. 3. **Credit Spread Risks**: Risks to credit spreads are skewed to the downside, prompting recommendations for more defensive sector trades while identifying attractive relative-value buying opportunities [12][67]. 4. **CHTR HY/IG Differential**: Expectations for the CHTR HY/IG differential to decompress in 2025, with a recommendation to sell certain CHTR bonds while buying others to capitalize on this shift [14][17]. 5. **Debt Issuance and Leverage**: CHTR is projected to issue approximately $1.1 billion in net debt this year, with year-end 2025 pro forma net leverage expected to be around 4.25x [17]. 6. **Potential M&A Activity**: The call suggests that ATUS/CSCHLD might benefit from potential M&A activity, with recommendations to buy lower-dollar guaranteed notes [18][21]. 7. **SATS Opportunities**: SATS is highlighted for refinancing prospects and spectrum valuation, with specific trade recommendations for secured and unsecured notes [22][27]. 8. **LUMN's Mass Markets Segment**: A potential sale of LUMN's Mass Markets segment is seen as a catalyst for the company, with a valuation of approximately $6.6 billion [31][30]. 9. **SBGI vs. GTN Leverage**: SBGI's net leverage is expected to increase more significantly than GTN's in 2025, with specific trade recommendations to sell SBGI and buy GTN bonds [37][41]. 10. **CCO's High Leverage Risks**: CCO's high leverage presents downside risks, with expectations for spreads to widen due to macroeconomic uncertainties and investor fatigue [46][42]. Additional Important Insights - **Consolidation Trends**: The call notes that consolidation and M&A could increase as telecom and cable players seek to remain competitive and profitable [21]. - **Market Pricing Dynamics**: The market is currently pricing in hypothetical scenarios for various companies, indicating a complex landscape for credit assessments [72][70]. - **Strategic Uncertainties in Media**: The media sector is facing strategic uncertainties while waiting for direct-to-consumer (DTC) gains to outpace pressures from traditional linear models [73][74]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the HY Telecom, Cable, and Media sectors.

Industry Overview - The Zacks Media Conglomerates industry is facing challenges such as declining broadcast television ratings, reduced demand for home entertainment, and advertisers' cautious spending due to inflation and high interest rates [1][2] - Despite these challenges, there is a shift towards over-the-top (OTT) content, with major players investing in original content to attract younger audiences [1][2] Trends Impacting the Industry - Original content is driving growth as media companies adapt to consumer preferences for subscription services over traditional pay-TV [3] - The demand for high-speed internet is acting as a catalyst for growth, enhancing the consumption of high-quality videos and binge-watching trends [4] - The industry is experiencing a rapid evolution with the rise of streaming services, making it difficult for traditional media companies to retain viewers [5] Industry Performance Metrics - The Zacks Media Conglomerates industry ranks 179, placing it in the bottom 28% of over 245 Zacks industries, indicating dull prospects [6][8] - The industry has underperformed the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500, declining 6.2% over the past year compared to the sector's growth of 2.2% and the S&P 500's rise of 8.9% [10] Valuation Insights - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.43X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 4.83X and the sector's 1.68X [12] Company Highlights - **Pearson (PSO)**: Exhibited 3% underlying sales growth and 10% profit growth in 2024, with a focus on AI integration and strategic partnerships, projecting a strong outlook for 2025 [14][15][16] - **Paramount Global (PARA)**: Transitioning to a streaming-first model, added 5.6 million subscribers in Q4 2024, with a 16% revenue growth, and expects domestic profitability in 2025 [18][19] - **Reservoir Media (RSVR)**: Achieved 18% revenue growth in fiscal 2024, with a strong pipeline for future acquisitions, projecting revenues of $148-$152 million for fiscal 2025 [21][22]