Group 1 - The article updates the investment thesis on Sezzle (NASDAQ: SEZL), recommending to wait for a 20-30% correction before considering new entries [1] - Sezzle has experienced a nearly 50% correction since the previous analysis in August 2025 [1] - The author has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, focusing on equity valuation and market trends [1] Group 2 - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation [1] - There is a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis to provide actionable investment ideas [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Sezzle (NASDAQ: SEZL) has declined by approximately 12%, indicating significant underperformance compared to the average company in the S&P 500, yet the bullish thesis for the company remains intact [1]. Company Performance - Sezzle's current trading is at a forward valuation that suggests potential for recovery despite recent stock price declines [1]. Analyst Background - The analyst has over 10 years of experience in asset management, focusing on equity analysis, macroeconomics, and risk-managed portfolio construction, which adds credibility to the insights shared [1]. Investment Philosophy - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding macro trends and their influence on asset prices and investor behavior, advocating for accessible and empowering long-term investing strategies [1].

Core Insights - Sezzle Inc. is enhancing its buy now, pay later (BNPL) platform to help retailers attract more shoppers during the 2025 holiday season, particularly for Black Friday and Cyber Monday [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Insights - A Sezzle survey from July 2025 indicated that 47% of shoppers are concerned about rising prices, and 78% stated that extended payment options influence their purchasing decisions [2] - Nearly 60% of shoppers have begun or plan to start their holiday shopping earlier than previous years, indicating a longer and more competitive holiday shopping season [2] Group 2: Sezzle's Offerings - Sezzle provides tools such as Sezzle Up for building credit history, Wishlist for saving items, Price Drop Alerts for deals, and delivery protection for lost or damaged packages, enhancing the shopping experience [3][6] - Monthly Subscribers and On-Demand shoppers increased by 62% year-over-year in Q2 2025, reflecting a growing acceptance of Sezzle's flexible payment ecosystem [3] Group 3: Retailer Benefits - Retailers using Sezzle are experiencing larger basket sizes, higher conversion rates, and improved customer loyalty [4] - Retailers like Bealls have reported that Sezzle helps attract younger customers and reduces cart abandonment through features like Express Checkout [5] Group 4: Market Impact - BNPL shoppers tend to spend approximately $150 more per order compared to non-BNPL shoppers, highlighting the financial impact of Sezzle's services on retail sales [8] - A Forrester TEI Study commissioned by Sezzle found that merchants offering Sezzle experienced a lift of over 45% in average order value [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment positions of Parkev Tatevosian, CFA, and mentions that The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Sezzle [1] Company Insights - Parkev Tatevosian has no position in any of the stocks mentioned [1] - The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy regarding its investment positions [1] - The Motley Fool may compensate affiliates like Parkev Tatevosian for promoting its services [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sezzle has experienced significant volatility in its stock price, with a remarkable 300% gain earlier in the year followed by a 41% decline after disappointing earnings, yet it remains a leader in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) industry with strong growth prospects [1][2][3]. Company Performance - Sezzle reported a 76% year-over-year revenue growth and projects a continued growth rate of 60% to 65% through 2025, outperforming competitors like Affirm, which reported only 33% revenue growth [5][6]. - The company has shown a sequential customer growth rate of 13.7%, significantly higher than Affirm's 24% year-over-year growth in Q4 FY25, and it maintains higher profit margins compared to peers such as PayPal and Block [6][8]. Market Position - Sezzle is successfully taking market share from other BNPL companies, as evidenced by its strong earnings report despite the stock price drop [4][7]. - The company's fiscal guidance has been raised three times, indicating confidence in its ability to capture more market share from fintech competitors [7]. Valuation Comparison - Sezzle trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 29, which is significantly lower than Affirm's 598, presenting a unique investment opportunity within the fintech sector [8][11]. - While PayPal and Bread Financial have lower P/E ratios of 15 and 11 respectively, their growth rates do not match Sezzle's impressive performance [9][10]. Industry Outlook - The BNPL industry is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 27% until 2033, which could benefit Sezzle significantly if the business model remains viable [12][15]. - However, the industry faces risks as it primarily attracts consumers with poor credit, leading to potential defaults as financial strains increase among users [13][14].

Core Insights - Sezzle Inc. has expanded its merchant network with new partners in various sectors, including fashion, sporting goods, beauty, and digital content, in preparation for the 2025 holiday shopping season [1][2]. Merchant Partnerships - New merchants joining Sezzle include Cato Fashions, SCHEELS, D&B Supply, and Dermstore, reflecting a strategic move to cater to price-sensitive consumers during the holiday season [2][4]. - Cato Fashions is noted as a leading women's fashion retailer, while SCHEELS is recognized as a top destination for sporting goods and apparel [2]. Consumer Spending Trends - According to PwC's 2025 Holiday Outlook, consumers are expected to be more price-sensitive, with Gen Z projected to spend nearly 23% less than the previous year, and overall spending across generations expected to dip around 5% [2]. - The focus on discounts and value over splurges indicates a shift in consumer behavior, particularly among younger generations [2]. Strategic Expansion - Sezzle is adapting to Gen Z's preferences by partnering with platforms like Whop, which focuses on social commerce and digital products, allowing users to engage with content more flexibly [3]. - This partnership aligns with the trend of Gen Z prioritizing experiences and digital communities over traditional goods [3]. Performance Metrics - Early results from Sezzle's partnerships indicate significant growth, with Cato brands reporting that Sezzle orders in the first month averaged nearly double their baseline order value [4]. - The company emphasizes its ability to drive meaningful results at scale, showcasing consistent growth in unique shoppers, total orders, and Sezzle-driven volume [4]. Value Proposition - Sezzle positions itself as a solution for both consumers and retailers, helping shoppers budget responsibly while providing retailers with tools to enhance sales and customer loyalty [4].

Core Insights - Sezzle's stock has experienced a significant pullback, down 16% in September and over 50% since its peak in July, amid broader fintech stock declines and rising credit market risks [1][3][4] Market Performance - The stock was volatile but steady in early September before declining towards the end of the month, influenced by negative employment data and bankruptcies in the auto sector [2][3] - Sezzle's recent IPO status means it has not yet navigated a full credit cycle, contributing to its sensitivity to credit risk [2] Analyst Coverage - TD Cowen initiated coverage of Sezzle with a hold rating and a price target of $82, indicating expectations for a stock pullback despite the company's rapid growth [5] - The analyst noted that Sezzle's growth is largely driven by the BNPL sector's overall strength, which is currently trading within a narrow valuation range [5] Legal Issues - Shopify has requested a judge to dismiss a lawsuit from Sezzle, which claims Shopify's BNPL product is anticompetitive and violates antitrust laws, adding to the stock's sell-off [6][7] Future Outlook - Sezzle forecasts a revenue growth of 60%-65% for 2025, but charge-offs have increased significantly from $8.2 million to $20.3 million in the second quarter, indicating potential challenges in customer repayments [9]

Core Insights - Both DAVE and Sezzle are prominent fintech companies focusing on consumer payments and banking alternatives, with DAVE specializing in cash advances and Sezzle offering interest-free installment plans [1] Sezzle Analysis - Sezzle's financial performance in Q2 2025 showed a record year-over-year gross merchandise volume (GMV) increase of 74.2% to $927 million, leading to a 76.4% year-over-year revenue growth [3][10] - The rise in GMV was supported by a 13.7% sequential increase in Monthly On-Demand & Subscribers (MODS) and a 62.6% year-over-year increase in transactions [3] - Sezzle's marketing expenditure surged by 780% year-over-year, resulting in a 116.1% increase in operating income and a 52% growth in monthly active users [5] - The launch of Sezzle Balance has enhanced user engagement and diversified revenue streams, indicating a positive growth outlook [6] - The consensus estimate for Sezzle's 2025 sales is $442.1 million, reflecting a 63.1% year-over-year increase, with earnings expected to rise by 77.7% to $3.27 per share [13] DAVE Analysis - DAVE's membership base grew by 722,000 in Q2 2025, leading to a 16% year-over-year increase in monthly transacting members [7] - The company reported a 64% year-over-year revenue increase, with adjusted EBITDA rising 236% to $50.9 million [8][10] - ExtraCash originations increased by 27% year-over-year, although the 28-day delinquency rate rose to 2.4%, up 900 basis points from the previous year [9] - The consensus estimate for DAVE's 2025 sales is $511.9 million, indicating a 47.5% year-over-year growth, with earnings projected to increase by 98.3% to $10.39 per share [12] Valuation Comparison - Sezzle is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 21.56X, slightly below its 12-month median of 22.59X, suggesting it is undervalued [14] - DAVE's forward price/earnings ratio is 19.48X, significantly lower than its 12-month median of 30.08X, indicating a discounted valuation compared to Sezzle [14] Market Outlook - Sezzle's strong GMV growth and user engagement metrics support a positive growth narrative, making it a buy opportunity [16][17] - DAVE faces challenges from rising credit default risks and intense competition, which may hinder its growth trajectory [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article expresses a renewed interest in discussing stocks, particularly focusing on identifying asymmetrical risk/reward opportunities in the market [1]. Group 1 - The investment style emphasized is a combination of long and short positions, utilizing both stock and derivatives [1]. - The time horizon for investments varies, indicating a flexible approach to market opportunities [1]. Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in the shares of SEZL, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2]. - The article is written independently, reflecting the author's personal opinions without external compensation [2].

Core Insights - Sezzle Inc.'s stock has increased by 127.9% over the past six months, outperforming both the industry and the broader market [1][7] - The company's On-Demand service has significantly contributed to its growth, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) rising by 74.2% year over year in the second quarter of 2025 [6][8] - Sezzle's financial metrics, including return on equity (ROE) and return on invested capital (ROIC), are well above industry averages, indicating strong profitability [10][18] Stock Performance - Sezzle's stock has outperformed peers such as FirstCash and Mastercard, with a year-to-date increase of 109.4% compared to FirstCash's 41.2% and Mastercard's 10.2% [4][7] - The stock's performance reflects a strong market position and investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory [1][18] On-Demand Growth - The On-Demand service started with 707,000 Monthly On-Demand Subscribers (MODS) in Q4 2024, experiencing a temporary decline of 7% year-over-year in Q1 2025, followed by a 14% growth in Q2 2025 [5][6] - Customer purchase frequency increased from 4.8 times to 6.1 times year-over-year, indicating higher engagement and repeat business [6][8] Profitability and Liquidity - Sezzle's operating margin improved by 680 basis points year over year to 36.6%, despite a 50.4% increase in non-transaction-related operating expenses [8][10] - The company's current ratio stands at 3.51, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.17, indicating strong liquidity and the ability to cover short-term obligations [13][18] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sezzle's 2025 sales is projected at $442.1 million, reflecting a 63.1% year-over-year increase, with earnings expected to rise by 77.7% to $3.27 per share [15][16] - Analysts have shown confidence in the company's prospects, with upward revisions in earnings estimates for both 2025 and 2026 [16][18]