Summary of SanDisk Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SanDisk (NasdaqGS:SNDK) - **Industry**: NAND Flash Memory Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - The NAND market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with pricing increasing due to both demand and strategic under-shipping to maximize margins [13][14][16] - SanDisk is managing supply for a mid-teens growth rate, moving away from the previous expectation of 30% market growth [16][17] - The company anticipates the market will remain undersupplied through the end of 2026, with a focus on efficient supply-demand matching [16][17] Strategic Supply Management - SanDisk's strategy involves being prescriptive in managing supply to avoid oversupply situations that previously led to market downturns [15][16] - The company is investing billions annually to grow the market, with a long-term view of returns from new fabs [22][24] - There is a need for longer-term commitments from customers to align with SanDisk's investment horizon [24][25] Demand and Pricing - Demand in the data center market is increasing, contributing to a situation where unconstrained demand exceeds expected supply [33][34] - The company is optimistic about maintaining strong business performance despite potential price increases affecting consumer demand [32][36] Technological Advancements - SanDisk is focused on developing high-performance products, including the BiCS8 UltraQLC, which is expected to enhance their competitive position in the market [42][43] - The company is also exploring High Bandwidth Flash technology, aimed at optimizing NAND for specific use cases like AI inference [47][50] Financial Performance and Future Outlook - SanDisk reported a gross margin of 29.9%, with a target of 35% through the cycle, indicating room for improvement in profitability [36] - The company is generating significant free cash flow and is considering options for returning cash to investors in the future [53] Market Position and Competition - SanDisk acknowledges competition in the NAND market but believes its strategy and technological advancements will allow it to maintain a strong position [19][31] - The company is actively engaging with large customers for potential long-term agreements, indicating a shift towards more stable demand commitments [26][28] China Market Considerations - SanDisk sees opportunities in China but recognizes the strong presence of local suppliers, which may limit its market share [30][31] Additional Important Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of capital efficiency in its operations, focusing on maximizing output while minimizing capital expenditure [44][46] - SanDisk's collaboration with SK Hynix on High Bandwidth Flash indicates a strategic partnership aimed at addressing emerging market needs [51][52]

Market Overview - Major U.S. equities indexes experienced gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.3%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq climbing by 0.4% [1] Company Highlights - Boeing (BA) shares surged by 8% after the new CFO announced at a UBS conference that the company's production ramp-up plan is on schedule, following previous safety issues that had significantly slowed production last year. Boeing also expects to generate positive free cash flow next year after incurring substantial losses over the past two years [2] - Intel (INTC) stock rose by 7% as the company revealed plans to invest approximately $200 million to expand its manufacturing operations in Malaysia. This increase follows a rally initiated by reports suggesting that Apple (AAPL) could become a significant customer for Intel [3] - MongoDB (MDB) shares jumped nearly 25% after the company reported quarterly results that exceeded estimates and raised its full-year forecasts, following the appointment of a new CEO [3] - XPeng (XPEV), a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, saw its U.S.-listed shares decline by 6% after reporting November sales data. The company delivered just under 37,000 EVs, marking a 19% increase year-over-year, but falling short of October's sales figures amid intense competition in the Chinese EV market [4] - Symbotic (SYM) shares fell by 16% after a significant rally of nearly 40% following last week's earnings report. The company had exceeded sales estimates and announced its first partnership with a medical supply company [5] - Sandisk (SNDK), a recent addition to the S&P 500, led the decliners on the index with a 5% drop [5] Commodity and Currency Update - Crude oil futures decreased by 0.5% to approximately $59.00 per barrel, while gold futures fell by 1.4% to around $4,212 per ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note remained stable at about 4.09% [6]

Market Overview - Major U.S. equities indexes experienced declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down approximately 0.2%, and the Dow dropping 0.4% [1][2]. Cryptocurrency Sector - Coinbase Global (COIN) was one of the largest decliners in the S&P 500, with shares falling about 6% due to a drop in Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies [2]. - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) shares also decreased by nearly 5% amid the same market conditions [2]. Other Notable Stocks - Moderna (MRNA) shares fell 6% following calls for a stricter vaccine approval process from a Food and Drug Administration official [2]. - Sandisk (SNDK) shares dropped close to 7%, reversing previous gains after its addition to the S&P 500 [3]. - Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) saw increases of about 6% and 4%, respectively, following positive comments from BMO Capital [3]. - Wynn Resorts (WYNN) shares rose around 4% after being placed on Goldman Sachs' conviction buy list, citing its strong business in Las Vegas and potential benefits from improvements in Macao [4]. - Synopsys (SNPS) shares increased by 4% after Nvidia (NVDA) announced a $2 billion investment in the semiconductor design software company [4]. Commodities and Treasury - Oil and gold futures experienced an uptick, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.09% [5].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for SanDisk (SNDK.US) from $263 to $273 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating, despite a market sell-off in storage stocks due to concerns over increased capital expenditures and potential supply shortages [1] Group 1: Company Performance - SanDisk reported record revenue of $2.3 billion for Q1 FY2026, representing a 21% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 23% year-over-year increase [1] - Non-GAAP earnings per share surged from $0.29 in the previous quarter to $1.22 [1] - The company expects Q2 revenue to be in the range of $2.55 billion to $2.65 billion [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - SanDisk operates globally, focusing on developing, manufacturing, and selling data storage devices based on NAND flash technology [2] - Following the split from Western Digital in February 2025, SanDisk has benefited from a surge in storage demand driven by the AI boom, with its stock price increasing nearly 500% since the split [2] - The demand for high-performance storage solutions is expected to grow significantly due to large-scale AI infrastructure projects, which require enterprise-level SSDs and other storage products [2]

Core Viewpoint - SanDisk Corporation has significantly outperformed major AI stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, with its shares surging from $36 to $220 since its spinoff from Western Digital, representing over a sixfold increase [2][4]. Company Performance - SanDisk's stock has seen a remarkable increase due to strong demand for NAND flash memory chips, particularly from AI hyperscalers, which has allowed the company to raise prices [6][7]. - For the quarter ending October 3, 2025, SanDisk reported a 23% year-over-year revenue increase and a 21% quarter-over-quarter increase, despite a 33% year-over-year decline in earnings per share (EPS) [8]. - Management expects revenue for the current quarter to be between $2.55 billion and $2.65 billion, with non-GAAP EPS projected between $3 and $3.40, indicating anticipated sequential growth of 12.6% in revenue and 162.3% in earnings [9]. Future Projections - Wall Street analysts estimate SanDisk could report EPS of $12.81 for the fiscal year ending June 2026 and $20.21 for the fiscal year ending June 2027 [10]. - The stock currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17, which is lower than Nvidia's 23, indicating potential for further valuation expansion [11]. Market Dynamics - Demand for memory chips is expected to remain strong, with capacity expansion likely several quarters away from meeting demand, suggesting continued favorable trends for SanDisk [12]. - SanDisk's recent addition to the S&P 500 index may provide additional support for its share price [14].

Core Viewpoint - SanDisk Corporation is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity, with Morgan Stanley raising its price target and maintaining an Overweight rating despite market concerns regarding memory stocks [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - SanDisk reported record revenue of $2.3 billion for FQ1 2026, reflecting a sequential increase of 21% and a year-over-year rise of 23% [4]. - Non-GAAP EPS increased significantly to $1.22, up from $0.29 in the previous quarter [4]. - The company reduced Inventory Days from 135 to 115, indicating improved inventory management [4]. - For FQ2, SanDisk projects revenue between $2.55 billion and $2.65 billion [4]. Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley believes that the recent market reaction to increased capital spending and supply concerns is unwarranted and does not affect the fundamental positive outlook for the memory sector [2]. - Reports of tightening supply in memory chips are interpreted as a sign of strong future earnings for companies in this sector [2]. Company Overview - SanDisk Corporation specializes in the development, manufacturing, and sale of data storage devices and solutions utilizing NAND flash technology across various global markets [5].

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets closed higher on November 28, 2025, with all three major indexes extending a multi-day rally, driven by hopes for future interest rate cuts and positive economic data [1][12] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 0.6% to 47,427.12, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) increased by 0.7% to 23,214.69, and the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 0.5% to 6,812.61, marking the fifth consecutive session of increases for all three benchmarks [2] Weekly Performance - For the week, the Nasdaq surged 4.9%, the S&P 500 was up approximately 3.7%, and the Dow gained about 3.2% [3] - November was mixed; while the S&P 500 and Dow extended their winning streaks to seven months, the Nasdaq ended down 1.5%, attributed to reassessment of profitability timelines for major AI companies [3] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, below the consensus estimate of 229,000, indicating a strong labor market [5] - Orders for durable goods rose by 0.5% in September, missing estimates, while non-defense capital goods orders increased by 0.9%, a key indicator for business spending [5] Upcoming Events - Market participants are monitoring the potential for another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, which is a significant driver of market optimism [4] - Kevin Hassett is a key contender for the next Fed Chairman, with an announcement expected from President Trump before Christmas, which could influence monetary policy expectations [4] Individual Stock Performance - Intel (INTC) surged 10.2%, leading the S&P 500, following speculation it could become a foundry supplier for Apple (AAPL) processors [7] - Eli Lilly (LLY) shares slipped 2.6%, giving back some recent gains despite a market cap exceeding $1 trillion due to sales of weight-loss drugs [8] - Nvidia (NVDA) shares slid 1.8% amid competitive concerns, while other tech stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) saw gains of 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively [9] Sector Performance - Retailers performed well on Black Friday, with Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Amazon (AMZN) finishing up roughly 1% to 2% [10] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks rose as Bitcoin moved above $90,000, with Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Coinbase Global (COIN) up by 7%, 5%, and 5%, respectively [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened with all three major indices rising, with the Dow Jones up 0.16%, the Nasdaq up 0.33%, and the S&P 500 up 0.17% [1] - Google's stock increased by nearly 1% as CEO Sundar Pichai expressed hopes to send TPU to space by 2027 [1] - Oracle's stock fell over 3% as multiple banks are negotiating to provide $38 billion in loans to Oracle and data center builder VANTAGE [1] Group 2 - Storage-related stocks saw a collective increase, with SanDisk rising over 4%, Micron Technology up 2.8%, and Western Digital up 2% [1] - The global shortage of storage chips is intensifying, with research institutions predicting a further 50% increase in storage chip prices [1]

Core Insights - Sandisk has joined the S&P 500 index, marking a significant milestone for the company as its shares have surged due to increased demand driven by the AI boom [1][2][6] Company Performance - Sandisk's stock price increased nearly 11% on the day of its S&P 500 inclusion before settling back, reflecting strong market interest [2] - The company's shares have risen over 500% since being spun off from Western Digital in February, with a current market capitalization exceeding $31 billion [2][6] Market Context - The inclusion in the S&P 500 is generally viewed positively by investors, often leading to a short-term boost in share prices [3][4] - The vacancy in the S&P 500 was created by Omnicom Group's acquisition of Interpublic Group, highlighting ongoing market consolidation trends [4][10]

Core Insights - SanDisk's stock surged over 300% in three months due to consistent revenue growth and a shift in investor sentiment [2][4] - Key factors include an earnings surprise, inclusion in the S&P 500, and heightened excitement around innovation and demand [2][4] Financial Performance - The stock experienced a 323% increase, driven by an 8% rise in revenue and a 292% increase in its price-to-sales (P/S) multiple [4] - SanDisk reported a robust Q1 FY26 with a 23% year-over-year sales growth [8] Market Position - SanDisk will join the S&P 500 index on November 28, 2025, which is expected to further enhance its market visibility [8] - Strong demand for NAND flash in data centers and AI applications has contributed to the stock's growth [8] Product Development - The launch of a new 1TB USB-C flash drive has generated significant market interest [8] - Analysts have reaffirmed Buy recommendations and raised price targets for SanDisk [8]