涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利感谢您给予的理解和配合谢谢各位投资者晚上好我是东吴策略的林玉辉本期周末一课中的这个汇报主题呢就是中报前瞻有哪些景气的这个方向我们可以看到就是说这几周市场这个整体的活跃度也是明显起来了上周互指也是冲破了这个三千五百点但是在这个关键的这个时刻呢我们要注意到就是当前其实已经来到了这个七月中旬 很多上市公司其实已经披露这个业绩预告7月15号就截止披露这个业绩预告从这个时间点开始之后呢中道也就会陆陆续续这个披露因此就是说纪录面景气又会成为了这个市场交易的这样一个关键线索 一年之中其实有三次业绩披露的时期,分别是年报、中报以及三级报。三级报的时候,因为是在年底,市场可能更加去关注,比方说十月底的政治局会议对于经济这种解读,包括年底的政治局会议以及中央经济会议去交易来源的预期,因此可以说是日面定价,因此对于整体市场的交易可能影响没有那么大,但是在年报和中报这个阶段, 其实业绩对于市场这个交易还是非常关键的我们其实也可以看到就是说在近两周一些比较强势的业绩披露了比较好业绩的这个行业龙头比方说就是有工业互联包括就是北方稀土在这个业绩披露了一个比较好的业绩之后各股是走出了涨停板这样的 ...

Industry Status and Market Landscape - The global memory chip market is entering a new upcycle, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 21.3% in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations [1] - The DRAM market is dominated by Samsung (34%), SK Hynix (36%), and Micron (25%), collectively accounting for 95% of the market share [1] - Chinese manufacturer Changxin Storage has entered the competition, achieving a market share of 6% in Q1 2025, with expectations to increase to 8% by the end of the year [1] Changxin Storage Fundamental Analysis - Changxin Storage, established in 2016, is the only domestic IDM company capable of independent DRAM design and production [2] - The company completed a financing round of 10.8 billion yuan in March 2024, with a pre-financing valuation of 140 billion yuan; in December 2024, Country Garden sold 1.56% of its stake for 2 billion yuan, corresponding to a valuation of 128.2 billion yuan; the latest market valuation in 2025 has reached 150 billion yuan [2] - The main product, LPDDR5, is close to international performance levels, but DDR5 technology lags behind leading companies by 3-4 years [2] - In Q1 2025, production capacity reached 200,000 wafers, with an expected annual production increase of 68% to 2.73 million wafers [2] - The customer base includes domestic smartphone brands such as Xiaomi and Vivo, highlighting significant localization advantages [2] Competitive Disadvantages Analysis - Profitability is challenged with a gross margin of 32%, significantly lower than Samsung's 61%, and government subsidies account for 53% of profits [4] - Supply chain risks exist due to reliance on imported key equipment, indicating a need for increased domestic production [5] Major Competitors Comparison - Changxin Storage has not yet entered the HBM field, where SK Hynix holds a 70% market share; the 18.5nm process technology is behind international giants' 14nm and below [7] - The company has a patent portfolio of 13,449, which is only a fraction of that held by international leaders, facing risks from Micron's 337 investigation [7] - Comparison of key players shows Changxin's market share at 6% in Q1 2025, with significant gaps in technology and patent reserves compared to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron [9] Development Prospects - The funds raised from Changxin Storage's IPO will focus on improving DDR5 yield, currently at 80% [10] - In the short term, the target of 6% market share relies on domestic substitution benefits; in the long term, breakthroughs are needed in cutting-edge fields such as integrated storage and computing chips [10]

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the management system for the resignation of directors and senior management at Shenzhen Baiwei Storage Technology Co., Ltd, aiming to ensure stable corporate governance and protect shareholders' rights [1][2]. Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: General Provisions - The system is established to regulate the resignation of directors and senior management, applicable to all such personnel [1]. Chapter 2: Resignation Circumstances and Effectiveness - Directors and senior management can resign before their term ends by submitting a written resignation report, effective upon receipt by the company [2]. - If a director's term ends without re-election, they automatically resign from the date the new board is approved by the shareholders [2]. - The company must complete the re-election of directors within 60 days if the board's composition falls below legal requirements due to resignations [2]. Chapter 3: Handover Procedures and Unresolved Matters - Resigning personnel must hand over all relevant documents and assets within five working days after their resignation becomes effective [4]. - If there are unresolved commitments, the company can require a written plan for fulfillment from the resigning personnel [4]. Chapter 4: Obligations of Resigning Directors and Senior Management - The obligations of loyalty and confidentiality continue after resignation, and any shareholding changes must comply with specific regulations [5]. - Resigning personnel must complete pending matters and fulfill non-competition obligations [5]. Chapter 5: Accountability Mechanism - The board will review any breaches of commitments or obligations by resigning personnel and may pursue compensation for losses incurred [7]. Chapter 6: Supplementary Provisions - The system will be interpreted by the board and will take effect upon approval [9].

2025 年 7 月 10 日 半导体: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 美光科技 (MU US, 持有, 目标价: US$107.00) | 目标价: US$107.00 | 当前股价: US$122.24 | | --- | --- | | 股价上行/下行空间 | -12% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (US$) | 136.50/61.54 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 137,276 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 1,123 | | 三个月平均日交易額 | 1,588 | | (US$mn) | | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 82 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | Vanguard Group | 8 | | BlackRock | 5 | | SSgA fund | 4 | | 按 2025 年 7 月 9 日收市数据 | | | 资料来源: FactSet | | 主要调整 维持"持有"评级，上调目标价至 107 美元。考虑到行业 2025 年 5-6 月 DDR4 和部分 DDR5 DRAM 产品价格出现上涨，拉动公司 DRAM 收入，我们上调美光科技 2025-2026 ...

Group 1 - The company expects a net loss of between 80 million to 120 million RMB for the current period, with a significant decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 120.64% to 130.96% compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's operating revenue is projected to be between 3.8 billion to 4.2 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 74.63% to 93.01% [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.49 to 0.74 RMB per share, compared to a profit of 2.63 RMB per share in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The improvement in supply-demand structure has driven overall price recovery, and the company has actively expanded its enterprise-level storage and embedded storage businesses, leading to a significant increase in operational scale [2] - The company anticipates a substantial increase in R&D expenses, with approximately 130 million RMB for the first half of 2025, up from 86.64 million RMB in the same period last year, marking a 50% increase [2] - The company has successfully upgraded its service model from a single product supply to an integrated service of "hardware + technology + supply chain," achieving rapid breakthroughs in enterprise-level and embedded storage sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, but anticipates a shift from profit to loss in net income due to various market pressures and increased costs [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue increase of 74.63% to 93.01% in the first half of 2025, with expected revenue between 38 billion to 42 billion RMB for the first half of this year [1]. - The projected net loss for the first half of 2025 is between 80 million to 120 million RMB, a stark contrast to a profit of 388 million RMB in the same period last year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 54.41% year-on-year, but a net loss of 69.09 million RMB [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The storage chip market is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, driven by adjustments in production capacity and increased demand from data centers, leading to a recovery in overall prices [1]. - Since Q2 of this year, the company has seen a significant revenue increase, with expected revenue between 25.48 billion to 29.48 billion RMB, representing over 86.67% year-on-year growth and over 103.51% quarter-on-quarter growth [2]. Group 3: Business Strategy and Development - The company has transitioned from a single product supplier to an integrated service provider, offering customized storage solutions that combine hardware, technology, and supply chain management [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its enterprise-level storage and embedded storage businesses, with significant growth in these areas [2]. - The company plans to launch a full range of industrial-grade products this year, leveraging a combination of self-developed and third-party control solutions to capitalize on opportunities in edge intelligence brought by AI [2][3]. Group 4: R&D and Cost Management - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with R&D expenses expected to reach approximately 130 million RMB in the first half of 2025, a 50% increase year-on-year [1]. - The implementation of an equity incentive plan has resulted in share-based payment expenses of approximately 24.91 million RMB, an increase compared to the previous year [1].

Market Performance - On July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3507.69, marking a 0.29% increase and a new high for the year [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.36% to 10626.87, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.80% to 2198.44 [1] - The total market turnover for the half-day session was 969.1 billion, an increase of 83.8 billion from the previous day [1] - A total of 2083 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - The multi-financial, short drama gaming, childcare services, banking, and pork sectors saw the highest gains [2] - The banking sector performed well, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank leading with a 3.30% increase, and several other banks, including Lanzhou Bank and Zijin Bank, rising over 2% [2] - The robotics sector was active, with Upwind New Materials hitting the 20% limit up due to a significant acquisition announcement [2] - Conversely, the shipbuilding, storage chip, rare earth permanent magnet, and non-ferrous metal sectors faced declines, particularly in the storage chip sector, where companies like Youfang Technology and Chengbang Co. saw drops of 8.97% and 5.98%, respectively [2] Future Outlook - According to Guangfa Securities, the market is expected to continue being driven by banks, pharmaceuticals, and computing power, with potential for slight upward movement or fluctuations in the index [2] - CITIC Securities highlighted a global nuclear energy revival driven by carbon neutrality goals and energy security, predicting stable demand for uranium due to limited new supply and concentrated existing mines [3] - China International Capital Corporation noted that the food and beverage sector is expected to see marginal improvement, particularly in snack foods and soft drinks, while the liquor sector may face continued pressure but has begun to show value [3]

Group 1 - A-shares have shown a structural market characteristic, with strong performance in consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and retail, as well as certain technology sectors like AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][4] - The top five performing industries in A-shares include agriculture, media, food and beverage, electrical equipment, and retail, indicating a growing interest in agricultural assets and a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The bottom five performing industries in A-shares are electronics, steel, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and storage chips, with the decline in non-ferrous metals linked to proposed US tariffs on copper [2] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector has seen a rise due to active innovative drug concepts, despite potential US tariffs on pharmaceuticals [3] - The top three performing industries in Hong Kong include healthcare, industrial, and energy, while the bottom three are materials, information technology, and real estate, reflecting external pressures from US tariff policies and global tech supply-demand imbalances [3] - The current market characteristics indicate that A-shares are driven by policy and sectoral improvements, while Hong Kong stocks are more influenced by external factors such as US tariffs and global technology cycles [4] Group 3 - Short-term market hotspots are concentrated around policy-driven sectors and improving industry conditions, with a focus on performance in the upcoming earnings reports [4] - The breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points is expected to further boost market confidence, with potential policy signals from the July Politburo meeting influencing capital flows [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed stability in the morning, with all three major indices in the green, and the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the psychological level of 3500 points, indicating potential for increased capital inflow [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also performed well, particularly the ChiNext Index, which rose over 0.8%, suggesting high activity in growth stocks [2] - Trading volume was robust, nearing 1 trillion yuan in half a day, indicating active market participation and a positive profit effect with over 2000 stocks rising [2] Sector Performance - **Banking Sector**: Major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, and Agricultural Bank reached new highs, driven by a low interest rate environment that attracts long-term capital due to high dividends and stable returns. The improving asset quality and economic recovery expectations support the valuation recovery logic [2] - **Short Drama Game Sector**: Stocks like Huayi Brothers surged, likely influenced by recent Shanghai policies supporting the digital content industry, although this sector is characterized by high volatility and speculative trading [3] - **Innovative Drug Sector**: Stocks such as Purui Pharmaceutical saw significant gains, supported by national policies promoting innovative drug development, indicating long-term growth potential despite short-term volatility [3] - **Storage Chip Sector**: This sector faced a collective downturn, with companies like Fang Technology dropping over 9%, attributed to falling prices and weak consumer demand. However, long-term demand is expected to rise with advancements in AI and data centers, presenting a potential investment opportunity [3] - **Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector**: Companies like Jiuling Technology experienced declines, influenced by policy and market sentiment. Despite recent corrections, rare earths remain valuable as strategic resources [4] - **Shipbuilding and Nonferrous Metals Sectors**: Both sectors underperformed, with the shipbuilding sector affected by market sentiment and the nonferrous metals sector pressured by falling international commodity prices [5] Investment Strategy - The market is characterized by structural trends with both gains and losses across sectors, necessitating a steady investment approach. Long-term investors are encouraged to focus on sectors with sustainable growth logic, such as banking and innovative drugs, while being cautious with more volatile sectors like short drama games and storage chips [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on July 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.31% to 3508.29 points, returning above the 3500 mark [1] - Multiple indices broke through their consolidation ranges, indicating a short-term strengthening trend [1] - The offshore RMB and USD index showed signs of recovery, suggesting a potential "two steps forward, one step back" market behavior in the short term [1] Sector Performance - The childcare service sector saw significant gains, with Huamei Holdings hitting the daily limit [2] - Human-shaped robot concepts also performed well, with Henggong Precision and Dafeng Industrial both reaching the daily limit [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced widespread increases, with Jinling Mining also hitting the daily limit [1] - Conversely, sectors such as precious metals, insurance, rare earth permanent magnets, and storage chips underperformed [1] Institutional Insights - China Merchants Securities predicts a potential upward breakout in the market, with technology and non-bank sectors likely to outperform [4] - Postal Savings Securities suggests that A-shares will primarily focus on internal fundamentals, with a likely scenario of oscillating to digest gains due to reduced external shocks [5] - Industrial Securities indicates that A-shares have entered a phase of stronger market patterns, with a focus on basic earnings and seasonal strengths in resource sectors like steel and chemicals [6] Childcare Service Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with six other departments, issued guidelines to accelerate the development of a universal childcare service system, supporting the construction of childcare facilities [2]