以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者丁卯 张帆 36氪财经 . 然而， 这种对算力 刚性需求 正迅速转化为关键上游供应链的巨大压力。 电话会中， 英伟达指 出， 代工、存储、电力等环节 已成为满足未来增长的关键 瓶颈 。 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 我是芯片超人花姐，入行20年，有50W+芯片行业粉丝。 有很多不方便公开发公众号的， 关于芯片买卖、关于资 源链接等， 我会分享在朋友圈 。 作者 | 丁卯 来源 | 36氪财经（ID： krfinance ） 11月19日，英伟达发布了2026财年第三季度的报告。 扫码加我本人微信 数据显示，FY26Q3，英伟达实现营收570亿美元，同比增长62%， 季度环比增长创纪录地达到 100亿美元，增速为 22%，大超市场预期。其中，最受市场关注的数据中心业务收入达到了512 亿美元，同比增长66%，环比增长25%。 利润方面，本季度，英伟达毛利率达到了73.4%，同期净利润为319.1亿美元，同比增长65%， 对应净利率56%。 英伟达强劲的业绩表现以及电话会中对于AI泡沫等核心关注点的有力回应，一定程度上弱化了近期 市场对于AI估值过高的担忧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI-driven memory supercycle is real and its strength and duration may exceed market expectations, shifting demand from price-sensitive traditional customers to AI data centers that are less sensitive to pricing [4][5][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current memory industry supercycle is structural, with a shift in core demand drivers towards AI data centers and cloud service providers, marking a departure from previous cycles driven by PCs and smartphones [3][4] - Recent channel pricing shows unprecedented strength, with server DRAM prices soaring nearly 70% for Q4 2025, and NAND contract prices increasing by 20-30% [5][10] - The spot market has seen explosive growth, with DDR5 (16Gb) prices rising from $7.50 in September to $20.90, a staggering increase of 336% [11] Group 2: Supply Constraints - NAND supply is tight, with 3D NAND chip prices expected to rise by 65-70% in Q4, and Samsung's production limited due to a transition to 321-layer V8-NAND [12] - HDD order visibility extends to 2027, with delivery times exceeding two years, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance in the storage market [13] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to "hold" rather than "trade," as timing the market often leads to missed opportunities; the current bull market is fundamentally driven [5][14] - The report emphasizes that the time spent in the market is more crucial than attempting to time market movements, as memory cycles are inherently volatile [15] Group 4: Winners and Losers - Memory manufacturers like SK Hynix and Samsung are positioned as winners due to their pricing power, benefiting from rising prices and significant profit growth [16][17] - Conversely, the PC, non-premium smartphone, and broader consumer electronics supply chains are identified as losers, facing severe profit pressure and challenges in passing on rising memory costs to consumers [19][20]

从2025年下半年开始，存储芯片的涨价潮就呈现出了加速态势。进入11月后，这波涨价潮不但未见减 弱，反而变得愈加疯狂。 短短一周之内，DDR5高性能存储芯片现货价格飙升了25%。三星、SK海力士等原厂甚至一度暂停报 价，这直接引发了市场恐慌性采购。摩根士丹利最新的研报数据显示，2025年第四季度的服务器DRAM （内存）报价已飙升近70%，NAND（闪存）合约价也上涨20-30%。 "内存涨价实在太多。" 雷军也在微博上回应Redmi K90定价太高，最主要是由上游存储成本太高导致。Redmi K90系列因存储 成本飙升全系涨价100-400元，不同存储版本价差从400元拉大至600元。小米集团总裁卢伟冰则表示， 上游成本压力已真实传导至新品定价，存储成本上涨也远高于预期，且会持续加剧。 摩根士丹利也发出明确信号：由AI驱动的内存超级周期不仅真实存在，而且其强度和持久性可能远超 市场想象。同时，SK海力士、三星等将凭借强大的定价权，迎来利润率扩张和盈利的飙升。相反，下 游的PC、手机和消费电子供应链将面临剧烈的成本压力和利润挤压。 涨价源头，科技公司的"算力军备竞赛" "我们正在见证一个前所未见的市场结构。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI-driven memory supercycle is expected to be stronger and more persistent than market expectations, with a shift in demand from price-sensitive traditional customers to AI data centers that are less sensitive to pricing [1][4][6]. Memory Industry Dynamics - The current memory supercycle is structural and its intensity and duration will surpass historical experiences, driven by AI data centers and cloud service providers [3][4]. - The demand for memory is now primarily fueled by inference workloads related to AI applications, marking a significant shift from previous cycles dominated by PCs and smartphones [6][7]. Pricing Trends - Recent channel pricing indicates unprecedented strength, with server DRAM prices soaring nearly 70% for Q4 2025, and DDR5 spot prices increasing by 336% since September [10][11]. - NAND prices are also under pressure, with expectations of a 65-70% increase in Q4 due to supply constraints [12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to "hold" rather than attempt to time the market, as the memory cycle is characterized by volatility and rebounds, making it difficult to predict market movements accurately [14][15]. - The report emphasizes that the time spent in the market is more crucial than trying to time it, as ongoing skepticism can fuel further price increases [15]. Winners and Losers - Memory manufacturers like SK Hynix and Samsung are positioned as winners due to their pricing power, which will lead to significant profit growth [16]. - Conversely, the PC and consumer electronics sectors are likely to face severe profit squeezes due to rising memory costs, with companies struggling to pass these costs onto consumers [18][19].

Market Overview - The market experienced a low open but rallied throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index reaching a three-year high and the STAR 50 Index rising nearly 5% [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.28% [3] - Over 4,400 stocks rose, while fewer than 900 declined, indicating strong market breadth [3] Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant growth, particularly in domestic photolithography machine production [10] - The 25th China International Industry Fair showcased major advancements, with companies like Chip-on-Micro and Shanghai Micro Electronics presenting key products [11] - The semiconductor sector, including major stocks like SMIC and Northern Huachuang, saw substantial gains, with SMIC's stock price hitting historical highs [13] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - SMIC concept stocks up 5.41% year-to-date increase of 47.20% [12] - National Big Fund holdings up 4.83% year-to-date increase of 48.15% [12] - Storage chips up 4.18% year-to-date increase of 57.71% [12] - The STAR 50 Index also rose by 3.49%, marking a new high in the current market cycle [14] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment presents opportunities, with expectations for continued growth in the Chinese stock market [21] - The transition to high-end products in the memory market is being driven by increased demand for DDR5 and HBM due to AI [17] - The focus remains on emerging technologies, with recommendations to invest in upstream resources and capital goods as well as domestic consumption sectors [22][23]

Market Overview - On September 24, the market opened lower but closed higher, with the ChiNext Index reaching a three-year high and the STAR 50 Index rising nearly 5% at one point [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.28% [2] - Over 4,400 stocks in the market rose, while fewer than 900 declined, with a total trading volume of 2.33 trillion yuan, down 167.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with major breakthroughs in domestic photolithography machine production [7] - At the 25th China International Industry Fair, Chip-on-Micro showcased several new products and won top honors, while Shanghai Micro Electronics unveiled EUV lithography machine specifications [7] - The semiconductor sector saw strong performance, with notable increases in stocks related to national big fund holdings, electronic chemicals, and storage chips [7][11] Stock Performance - Key stocks such as SMIC, North Huachuang, and others reached historical highs, with North Huachuang's market cap nearing 333.6 billion yuan [9] - The semiconductor concept stocks saw significant gains, with SMIC concept stocks up 5.41% year-to-date, and storage chips up 57.71% [8] Market Trends - The market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index now at 3,804 points compared to 2,770 points a year ago [7][12] - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment presents opportunities, with expectations for continued growth in the A-share market [14]

Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, particularly in storage chips and semiconductor equipment, with major stocks reaching historical highs [1][2] - Notable companies such as North Huachuang and Zhongwei Company experienced substantial increases, with North Huachuang hitting a market cap of 333.6 billion [1] - Micron Technology reported better-than-expected revenue and profit for Q4 FY2025, projecting Q1 FY2026 revenue between $12.2 billion and $12.8 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 50.5%-52.5% [3][4] - The market is witnessing a shift towards DDR5 products due to increased demand, with major players like Samsung and SK Hynix adjusting production strategies to focus on high-end products [4] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed strong performance, with significant increases in real estate development, rental rights, and property management [5] - Key stocks in the real estate development sector, such as Yuhua Development and Shanghai Lingang, reached their daily limit [5][7] - Everbright Securities suggests focusing on three main lines in the real estate sector: companies with high product reputation, those with rich existing resources, and the long-term growth potential of property service companies [8]

Core Insights - The white paper highlights significant transformations in the global memory market driven by advancements in AI technology, increasing server storage demands, and upgrades in consumer storage products [19] Group 1: Global Memory Market Changes and Technological Developments - High-density 3D NAND Flash storage is continuously improving, with advancements in read/write performance, power consumption, durability, and cost [2][36] - The complexity of etching and deposition processes increases with the number of layers in NAND Flash, leading to challenges that manufacturers are overcoming through various techniques [2][41] - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are focusing on mass production plans for NAND Flash with over 300 layers, utilizing Wafer-to-Wafer bonding technology [2][41] Group 2: Server NAND and DRAM Application Growth - The expansion of global data center infrastructure and increased investment in AI infrastructure are driving the growth of server storage demand [3][9] - In 2024, the application shares of NAND in servers, mobile devices, and PCs are projected to be 30%, 31%, and 14% respectively, with server NAND application share expected to rise to 30% by 2025 [4][43] - For DRAM applications, the shares in servers, mobile devices, and PCs are expected to be 34%, 32%, and 14% in 2024, with server DRAM application share anticipated to grow to 36% by 2025 [5][47] Group 3: Storage Technology and Application Outlook - QLC NAND is improving in performance and reliability, making it suitable for read-intensive applications, particularly in computing centers [6][51] - The rise of AI PCs is driving the growth of PCIe 4.0/5.0 SSD applications in the consumer market, with an expected penetration rate of 35% by 2025 [7][58] - Manufacturers are actively expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, where the SSD market holds significant potential [8][71] Group 4: AI Server Storage Demand - There is a surge in capital expenditure for AI infrastructure, significantly increasing the demand for AI servers [9][72] - The global HBM market is projected to reach $16 billion in 2024 and grow to $30 billion by 2025, accounting for 28% of the global DRAM market [11] - The demand for enterprise-grade PCIe 5.0 SSDs is rapidly increasing, with an expected shipment share of 30% by 2025 [12][50] Group 5: Consumer Storage Product Applications and Developments - Global PC shipments are expected to see a slight increase of 3% in 2025, with AI PC penetration reaching 35% [13][58] - The global smartphone shipment volume is projected to reach approximately 1.184 billion units in 2024, with NAND capacity expected to exceed 220GB by 2025 [15][16] - AI glasses are emerging as a significant consumer electronics product, with shipments expected to rise from 2 million units in 2024 to 10 million units in 2025 [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - SK Siltron's sales to SK Hynix surpassed those to Samsung Electronics for the first time in Q1 2023, attributed to SK Hynix's success in high bandwidth memory (HBM) and server DRAM, while Samsung faced challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q1 2023, SK Siltron sold wafers worth 124.4 billion KRW to Samsung (Company A) and 128.8 billion KRW to SK Hynix (Company B), marking a 27% decline in sales to Samsung and a 32% increase to SK Hynix compared to the previous year [1]. - This shift is significant as it marks the first time since SK Hynix's acquisition by SK Group in 2017 that sales to SK Hynix exceeded those to Samsung [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in Samsung's sales is attributed to weakened product competitiveness and a reduction in foundry capacity due to poor customer orders, leading to a 50% decrease in capital investment compared to the previous year [2]. - Conversely, SK Hynix has been maximizing production capacity for its 10nm fifth-generation process and has seen strong sales for products like HBM3E, while also investing in new factories [2]. Group 3: SiC Business Challenges - SK Siltron's SiC wafer subsidiary reported Q1 sales of 6.147 billion KRW with an operating loss of 63.4 billion KRW, a significant decline from the previous year's sales of 21.3 billion KRW and an increase in losses from 26.3 billion KRW [3]. - The SiC business, seen as a next-generation power semiconductor opportunity, is facing challenges in technology competitiveness and market conditions, leading to speculation that it may become a liability for SK Group [3].

Group 1 - The Central Securities Depository Company will waive the account opening fee of 500 yuan for foreign central bank institutions starting from January 1, 2025, to promote the opening of China's bond market [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources emphasizes the acceleration of a new round of mineral exploration and the development of the marine economy to ensure stable economic growth [2] - Over 300 listed companies have disclosed stock repurchase plans since April, with a total proposed repurchase amount exceeding 100 billion yuan, indicating strong market confidence [3] Group 2 - The Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Xinyang, Henan, is drafting measures to strictly control pre-sale permits for new housing projects, mandating that all new land development must be sold as completed properties [4] - A joint document from several government departments outlines goals for digital rural development by the end of 2025, aiming for over 90% 5G coverage in administrative villages [5] - The global top ten semiconductor testing companies are projected to have a combined revenue of 41.56 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [6] Group 3 - Regulatory bodies in multiple regions are requiring private equity firms to conduct self-inspections and submit reports to ensure compliance with investment regulations [7] - The DRAM market is experiencing significant price increases, with some DDR4 products rising nearly 50% in a month due to heightened demand driven by AI applications [8] - Sichuan province is implementing financial support measures for low-altitude economy projects, offering up to 30% funding for specific technology developments [9] Group 4 - The Beijing Financial Street Service Bureau is proposing measures to support companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange in their efforts to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, enhancing international cooperation [10]