I wrote on SoFi (NASDAQ: SOFI ) recently stating why the investment case was so complicated and made the case that it was prudent to take some profits. Since that time, the S&P is down about 15% while SoFi is downRetail investor researching mostly semiconductors and fintech. Some general macro musings. My goal is to bring you timely and digestible research on the stocks that I cover.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SOFI either through stock ownership, options, or o ...

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings (UPST) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI) represent two distinct business models within the fintech industry, with UPST focusing on AI-driven credit assessment and automation, while SOFI offers a diversified digital financial platform. The analysis suggests that UPST may present a smarter investment opportunity compared to SOFI due to its higher growth potential and favorable valuation metrics. Upstart Holdings - Upstart Holdings utilizes artificial intelligence and machine learning to evaluate creditworthiness, moving beyond traditional FICO scores to include various factors such as education and employment history [1] - In Q4 2024, 91% of Upstart's loans were fully automated, leading to reduced costs and faster approvals, enhancing its competitive edge in personal lending [2] - The company is expanding into auto lending, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and small-dollar loans, with auto originations and HELOCs both increasing by 60%, and small-dollar loans surging by 115% quarter over quarter [3] - For Q4 2024, Upstart reported a 56% year-over-year revenue increase and achieved a non-GAAP profit of $0.29 per share, a turnaround from a loss of $0.11 in the previous year [4] - Upstart's revenue growth guidance indicates a 57% increase for Q1 and 59% for the full year of 2025, suggesting continued momentum [4] SoFi Technologies - SoFi Technologies operates as a comprehensive digital financial platform, offering banking, investing, lending, and personal finance tools, supported by a national bank charter for low-cost loan funding [5] - In Q4 2024, SoFi added 785,000 new members, the highest in its history, and improved product-per-user metrics through effective cross-selling strategies [6] - The company is exploring enhancements in cryptocurrency services, which aligns with current regulatory trends and ambitions to position the U.S. as a leader in the crypto space [7] - SoFi's Q4 2024 revenue and non-GAAP EPS grew by 19% and 150% year-over-year, respectively, but its growth rates lag behind those of Upstart [8] - For the full year of 2025, SoFi expects a revenue growth of only 24%, significantly lower than Upstart's forecast [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past 12 months, Upstart Holdings shares have returned 46.9%, outperforming SoFi Technologies' 25.7% gain [9] - Both companies have similar forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiples around 3X, but Upstart's P/S ratio of 3.08 is below its one-year median of 5.26, indicating potential for upside [10] - SoFi's P/S multiple of 3.03 is in line with its historical average, suggesting that much of its expected growth is already reflected in its stock price [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Upstart Holdings indicates a 59.3% year-over-year increase in sales and a staggering 785% increase in EPS for 2025, with positive trends in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [12] - In contrast, SoFi Technologies' 2025 sales and EPS are expected to grow by 23.9% and 66.7%, respectively, with recent downward trends in EPS estimates [15] Conclusion - Upstart Holdings is positioned for higher growth due to its innovative AI-driven models and favorable valuation metrics, while SoFi Technologies, despite its strengths, shows slower growth potential [16][17]

Group 1 - SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) stock has decreased nearly 40% since a 'Strong buy' recommendation in early December, despite strong Q4 2024 earnings [1] - The decline in stock price began in late January due to softer-than-expected guidance following the earnings report [1] Group 2 - The author has a long position in SoFi shares through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [2] - The article reflects the author's own opinions and is not compensated by any company mentioned [2]

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of April 5, 2025. The video was published on April 7, 2025. SoFi Technologies (SOFI -4.01%) is now trading at less than $10 a share, potentially making it an attractive long-term investment. ...

Oliver Rodzianko is an accomplished investment analyst grounded in timeless value principles, specializing in the technology sector with expertise in AI, semiconductors, software, and renewable energy. He focuses on companies with resilient management and lasting competitive advantages, often taking long-term positions in those with strong leadership and wide economic moats. Recognized as a trusted authority in financial analysis, Rodzianko’s articles are regularly featured as “Must Reads” on Seeking Alpha, ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's peak growth days are behind it, prompting investors to seek alternative growth stocks [2] Group 1: Amazon and E-commerce - Amazon has seen a remarkable increase in stock value, over 250,000% since its IPO in 1997, despite recent pullbacks [1] - The e-commerce landscape is evolving, with brands and sellers exploring alternatives to Amazon [4] - Shopify enables companies to create their own online stores, facilitating direct sales to consumers [5] - Shopify's platform facilitated sales of $292.3 billion in 2024, generating nearly $8.9 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in operating income, marking significant growth from the previous year [6] - A growing consumer preference for authenticity and responsible businesses is benefiting platforms like Shopify, with 76% of North American consumers seeking "feel good" content from brands [7] - Analysts project Shopify's top-line growth to exceed 20% annually through at least 2027 [8] Group 2: Online Banking - The banking industry has been transformed by the internet, with 55% of U.S. consumers using mobile apps for banking [9] - SoFi Technologies operates as a fully online bank, catering to tech-savvy consumers who prefer digital banking solutions [11] - SoFi has over 10.1 million customers, with a continuous growth streak since 2020 [13] - The global online banking market is expected to grow by 14% annually until 2030, with North America being a significant contributor [14] Group 3: Ride-Hailing Industry - Uber Technologies is currently trading at a price approximately 25% below analysts' consensus target of over $90 per share, despite ongoing growth [15] - The rise of mobile internet has facilitated the growth of ride-hailing services like Uber, which has seen a 19% increase in total trips and revenue [17] - A trend is emerging where younger consumers are less interested in car ownership, with 44% of those under 35 willing to give up their vehicles for ride-hailing alternatives [17] - The number of 19-year-olds with a driver's license has decreased from over 87% in 1983 to less than 69% in 2022, indicating a shift in transportation preferences [18] - Uber's growth is expected to remain in the mid-teens as ride-hailing continues to replace traditional car ownership, with analysts generally viewing Uber stock as a strong buy [19]

Core Viewpoint - Recent updates regarding SoFi Technologies indicate a significant decline in stock prices, with a drop of 11.28% noted on April 3, 2025 [1] Group 1 - SoFi Technologies' stock performance is highlighted, showing a notable decrease on the trading day mentioned [1]

SoFi Technologies (SOFI -13.61%) is at greater risk due to its exposure to a riskier segment of the lending market.*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of March 31, 2025. The video was published on April 2, 2025. ...

Company Overview - SoFi Technologies is an all-digital bank that is gaining popularity among its core target market of students and young professionals, showing rapid growth in membership and revenue [2] - As of the end of 2024, SoFi had 10.1 million members, a 34% year-over-year increase, and 14.7 million products, a 32% year-over-year increase [3] Revenue Segments - The lending segment remains the main revenue source, accounting for over half of total revenue last year, but non-lending segments are growing faster, with financial services revenue up 88% in 2024 [3][4] - Non-lending segments accounted for 49% of total revenue in Q4 2024, up from 40% the previous year [3] Profitability - Contribution profit from the financial services segment increased by 358% year-over-year in Q4, while lending segment contribution profit rose by only 9% [4] - Lending profit was significantly higher at $246 million compared to $115 million from the financial services segment [4] Market Position and Growth Potential - SoFi is capturing a younger demographic, which presents opportunities for long-term growth and maintaining high growth levels [5] - Despite a challenging 2024, SoFi managed to navigate difficulties and ended the year positively, gaining market confidence [6] Investment Considerations - SoFi stock currently trades at a forward one-year P/E ratio of 26, which may present a good entry point for risk-tolerant investors [7]

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