Industry Overview - The exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry has reached an annual asset milestone of $1 trillion, marking the fastest growth in history [1] - Full-year ETF inflows are projected to reach $1.35 trillion, driven by strong performance across various asset classes, particularly bonds [5] Asset Performance - Across different asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, there has been a positive return environment, with assets outperforming cash [2] - Fixed income ETFs are gaining popularity, with record inflows of $39 billion in the last month alone, reflecting a shift towards more active strategies [6] Gold and Silver ETFs - Gold ETFs are experiencing significant inflows, with the SPDR Gold Trust ETF seeing record inflows of $15.97 billion this year, while the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust ETF has attracted $6.8 billion [7] - Gold prices have surged over 56% this year, and silver has increased by over 73%, reaching its highest level since January 1980 [14] Market Drivers - Key factors driving the bullish sentiment for gold include persistent inflation, global instability, falling interest rates, and increasing U.S. debt [9] - The tonnage of gold held is currently below its historical high, suggesting potential for further price increases [13]

Core Insights - State Street (STT) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 17, with anticipated year-over-year growth in revenues and earnings [1] Financial Performance - In Q2, STT's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by increased fee revenues and improvements in total assets under custody and administration (AUC/A) and assets under management (AUM) [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 earnings is $2.61 per share, reflecting a 15.5% increase from the previous year, while sales are projected at $3.46 billion, indicating a 3.7% year-over-year rise [3] Key Factors Influencing Q3 Earnings - Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to benefit from stabilized funding costs and higher rates, with the consensus estimate for NII at $739.6 million, a 2.2% increase [4][6] - Fee revenues are projected to rise due to increased foreign exchange trading volumes, with FX trading services income estimated at $386.8 million, a 3.4% year-over-year increase [7] - Management fees are expected to increase by 12.1% to $590.7 million, supported by market appreciation and inflows [8] - Servicing fees are projected to improve by 5.5% to $1.34 billion, driven by a healthy conversion rate from a backlog of servicing wins [9] - Total fee revenues are estimated to grow by 4.1% to $2.72 billion [12] Expense Outlook - Total adjusted non-interest expenses are anticipated to rise by 5.4% year-over-year to $2.43 billion, influenced by higher information systems costs and strategic investments [13] Earnings Prediction - The likelihood of STT beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate is high, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.45% and a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [14][15]

Core Insights - The SPDR Bridgewater All Weather ETF (ALLW) has successfully crossed the $500 million asset mark since its launch in early March 2025, amidst a favorable market environment where the S&P 500 has risen over 10% for the year [2]. Group 1: Partnership and Strategy - State Street Investment Management's active ETF leverages Bridgewater Associates' institutional-grade investment approach, aiming to balance risk across various market conditions beyond the traditional 60% equity/40% fixed income allocation [3]. - The rationale for partnering with Bridgewater is based on their 30 years of experience in risk parity strategies, which State Street believes ensures a superior product compared to a potentially mediocre in-house offering [4]. Group 2: Risk Exposure and Performance - Bridgewater employs a risk allocation approach to determine the risk contribution from each asset class, which informs the dollar allocation to achieve target risk exposure. The ETF utilizes derivatives, resulting in leverage [5]. - As of September 30, ALLW has shown an 11.2% increase since its inception, with significant inflows of $127 million in Q2 and an additional $161 million in Q3, indicating strong demand from retail investors for this institutional-caliber strategy [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The demand for alternative ETFs is still in its early stages, and the partnership between State Street and Bridgewater has proven beneficial thus far, warranting continued observation of the fund's performance [7].

Market Sentiment and Performance - U.S. equity futures are showing a strong rebound, indicating a positive start to the week, driven by President Trump's conciliatory tone on trade relations with China [1][3] - Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures are up approximately 0.9% to 1.44%, S&P 500 (SPX) futures have climbed between 1.2% and 1.43%, and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures are leading with gains of 1.4% to 2.69% [2] - The broader U.S. stock market index (US500) has risen to 6638 points, reflecting a 1.30% increase from the previous session and a 13.27% increase over the past year [4] Major Stock Movements - The "Magnificent 7" technology giants are experiencing significant gains, with Nvidia Corp. up 3.57%, Tesla Inc. up 2.70%, and Amazon.com Inc. climbing 2.09% [9] - Chipmakers like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA) are poised for a strong rebound after being affected by trade concerns [10] - MP Materials, a key player in rare earth minerals, surged 10% in premarket trading due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions [11] Earnings Season and Economic Indicators - The upcoming week marks the start of earnings season, with major financial institutions set to report third-quarter results, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs [7] - Investors are closely monitoring economic indicators, including the NAHB Housing Market Index and various production and employment figures, despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown [6] International Trade Data - China's September trade figures showed exports surging 8.3% year-over-year and imports growing 7.4%, indicating resilience amid global trade tensions [8]

（原标题：道富银行(STT.US)等机构全球扩张 抢占外包交易"新风口"） "由于市场正推动投资组合从美国市场转向全球多元化配置，投资者对欧洲股票和信贷策略的兴趣不断 上升;同时，受人工智能领域发展的带动，许多亚洲科技股表现强劲，也催生了更多交易需求，"他解释 道。 目前，道富银行在全球范围内拥有约30名外包交易员，服务对象涵盖大型多策略对冲基金及小型初创资 产管理公司。在法兰克福市场，道富银行已从瑞银(UBS.US)执行中心挖来了Dirk Heim和Nicole Lindermayr，并将Daniel Eichhorn从里斯本调往德国任职。值得一提的是，瑞银已于今年早些时候关闭 了其外包交易部门。 在伦敦，道富银行则从Western Asset Management招募了Matthew Hodges。道富银行的全球外包交易业 务中，大型对冲基金是重要客户来源——这些机构常因新策略融入现有工作流程成本过高，而选择将其 与内部交易部门隔离。 智通财经APP获悉，随着金融服务公司持续扩大全球业务布局以争夺更大市场份额，从道富银行 (STT.US)到Marex Group(MRX.US)等多家金融机构正积极拓展外包 ...

格隆汇10月13日｜摩根大通将道富银行的目标价从115.5美元上调至131.5美元，维持"中性"评级。(格隆 汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is creating uncertainty in the market, affecting investor sentiment and economic reporting [2][3]. Economic Reports - Key economic reports expected next week include Construction Spending and Wholesale Trade Sales on Monday, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and Redbook Index on Tuesday, MBA Mortgage Applications and Beige Book on Wednesday, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday [3]. Earnings Reports - Major companies set to report earnings next week include JPMorgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Labs (ABT), American Express (AXP), and State Street (STT) [4]. - Specific earnings spotlight includes Fastenal (FAST) on Monday, October 13, and JPMorgan, J&J, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock on Tuesday, October 14 [5].

Core Insights - Institutional investors anticipate a significant increase in the role of tokenized assets in global portfolios by 2030, with projections indicating that 10% to 24% of institutional investments could be made through tokenized instruments [1] Group 1: Tokenization Trends - Private equity and private fixed income are identified as the most likely candidates for early tokenization due to their historical challenges with illiquidity and high operational costs [2] - The adoption of emerging technologies, including tokenization, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, is reshaping the finance sector, with early adopters leading the way [3] Group 2: Digital Asset Allocation - Currently, institutional portfolios average 7% in digital assets, which is expected to rise to 16% within three years, with digital cash, tokenized equities, and fixed income being the most common forms [5] - Asset managers report higher exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tokenized assets compared to asset owners, with 14% of managers holding 2% to 5% of portfolios in Bitcoin [6] Group 3: Performance and Expectations - Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are the primary drivers of returns within digital portfolios, with 27% of respondents indicating Bitcoin as their strongest performer [7] - A quarter of respondents expect Bitcoin to remain the top performer in the next three years [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its model for North American large banks' Q3 2025 performance forecasts, indicating a mild impact on EPS growth of 0-1% and a median EPS estimate 3% higher than market consensus [1][2] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - The median EPS forecast for North American banks in Q3 2025 is 3% above market consensus, with the largest increases expected for money center banks and State Street Bank (STT.US) [1] - Citigroup (C.US) is projected to have an EPS of $1.99, exceeding the market consensus of $1.83 by 9% [1] - Bank of America (BAC.US) is expected to report an EPS of $1.01, which is 7% higher than the consensus of $0.94 [1] - State Street Bank's EPS is forecasted to be 6% above consensus, while Northern Trust (NTRS.US) is expected to be 3% higher [1] - Most super-regional banks are projected to be 1-3% above consensus, with Truist Financial (TFC.US) and Wells Fargo (WFC.US) both expected to be 3% higher [1] Group 2: Key Financial Metrics - The model incorporates a macro assumption of an additional 125 basis points rate cut by the end of 2026, with a focus on Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) due to expected outperformance in investment banking fees and trading income [2] - Money center banks are expected to lead in asset growth, with JPMorgan Chase's average total assets projected to reach $4.43 trillion, an 8.4% year-over-year increase, and Bank of America expected to reach $3.47 trillion, a 5.5% increase [2] - The deposit structure shows a gradual decline in non-interest-bearing deposits, with Bank of America projected to have 26.0% in 2025, down from 26.7% in 2024 [2] - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to remain stable, with a median estimate of 2.50% for 2025, while super-regional banks are projected to have higher NIMs [2] Group 3: Revenue Growth Drivers - Fee income is a core growth driver, with M&A fees expected to grow 30% year-over-year, significantly above the consensus growth of 11% [3] - Equity Capital Markets (ECM) fees are projected to increase by 41%, compared to a consensus of 30%, while Debt Capital Markets (DCM) fees are expected to grow by 4% against a consensus of 3% [3] - Money center banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are expected to see over 9% year-over-year growth in fee income for 2025 [3] Group 4: Capital Returns - The median dividend payout ratio for banks in 2025 is expected to be around 30%, with money center banks showing a slight decrease from 27% to 29% [3] - JPMorgan is projected to pay $5.80 per share in dividends, while Citigroup is expected to pay $2.32 per share [3] - Stock buybacks are anticipated to increase significantly, with JPMorgan expected to repurchase $38.01 billion in 2025, up from $18.84 billion in 2024, and Citigroup expected to repurchase $13.47 billion, a substantial increase from $2.5 billion in 2024 [3] Group 5: Overall Outlook - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on North American large banks, suggesting that money center banks will outperform due to investment banking and trading income, while super-regional banks show stable asset quality [4] - Trust banks are expected to face pressure on net interest margins but still demonstrate resilience supported by fee income [4]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: State Street Corporation (STT) - State Street Corporation currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong potential for outperformance [3][4] - The stock has shown positive short-term price activity, with shares up 0.58% over the past week, contrasting with a 1.23% decline in the Zacks Banks - Major Regional industry [6] - Over the last month, STT's price increased by 4.32%, significantly outperforming the industry's 0.93% [6] - In the longer term, STT shares have risen 14.59% over the past quarter and 31.98% over the last year, compared to the S&P 500's gains of 8.11% and 19.22%, respectively [7] Trading Volume - The average 20-day trading volume for STT is 1,549,088 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, 6 earnings estimates for STT have been revised upwards, with no downward revisions, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $9.79 to $9.96 [10] - For the next fiscal year, 6 estimates have also moved higher without any downward revisions [10] Conclusion - Given the positive momentum indicators and earnings outlook, STT is positioned as a strong buy candidate for investors seeking short-term opportunities [12]