格隆汇10月13日｜摩根大通将道富银行的目标价从115.5美元上调至131.5美元，维持"中性"评级。(格隆 汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is creating uncertainty in the market, affecting investor sentiment and economic reporting [2][3]. Economic Reports - Key economic reports expected next week include Construction Spending and Wholesale Trade Sales on Monday, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and Redbook Index on Tuesday, MBA Mortgage Applications and Beige Book on Wednesday, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday [3]. Earnings Reports - Major companies set to report earnings next week include JPMorgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Labs (ABT), American Express (AXP), and State Street (STT) [4]. - Specific earnings spotlight includes Fastenal (FAST) on Monday, October 13, and JPMorgan, J&J, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock on Tuesday, October 14 [5].

Core Insights - Institutional investors anticipate a significant increase in the role of tokenized assets in global portfolios by 2030, with projections indicating that 10% to 24% of institutional investments could be made through tokenized instruments [1] Group 1: Tokenization Trends - Private equity and private fixed income are identified as the most likely candidates for early tokenization due to their historical challenges with illiquidity and high operational costs [2] - The adoption of emerging technologies, including tokenization, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, is reshaping the finance sector, with early adopters leading the way [3] Group 2: Digital Asset Allocation - Currently, institutional portfolios average 7% in digital assets, which is expected to rise to 16% within three years, with digital cash, tokenized equities, and fixed income being the most common forms [5] - Asset managers report higher exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tokenized assets compared to asset owners, with 14% of managers holding 2% to 5% of portfolios in Bitcoin [6] Group 3: Performance and Expectations - Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are the primary drivers of returns within digital portfolios, with 27% of respondents indicating Bitcoin as their strongest performer [7] - A quarter of respondents expect Bitcoin to remain the top performer in the next three years [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its model for North American large banks' Q3 2025 performance forecasts, indicating a mild impact on EPS growth of 0-1% and a median EPS estimate 3% higher than market consensus [1][2] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - The median EPS forecast for North American banks in Q3 2025 is 3% above market consensus, with the largest increases expected for money center banks and State Street Bank (STT.US) [1] - Citigroup (C.US) is projected to have an EPS of $1.99, exceeding the market consensus of $1.83 by 9% [1] - Bank of America (BAC.US) is expected to report an EPS of $1.01, which is 7% higher than the consensus of $0.94 [1] - State Street Bank's EPS is forecasted to be 6% above consensus, while Northern Trust (NTRS.US) is expected to be 3% higher [1] - Most super-regional banks are projected to be 1-3% above consensus, with Truist Financial (TFC.US) and Wells Fargo (WFC.US) both expected to be 3% higher [1] Group 2: Key Financial Metrics - The model incorporates a macro assumption of an additional 125 basis points rate cut by the end of 2026, with a focus on Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) due to expected outperformance in investment banking fees and trading income [2] - Money center banks are expected to lead in asset growth, with JPMorgan Chase's average total assets projected to reach $4.43 trillion, an 8.4% year-over-year increase, and Bank of America expected to reach $3.47 trillion, a 5.5% increase [2] - The deposit structure shows a gradual decline in non-interest-bearing deposits, with Bank of America projected to have 26.0% in 2025, down from 26.7% in 2024 [2] - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to remain stable, with a median estimate of 2.50% for 2025, while super-regional banks are projected to have higher NIMs [2] Group 3: Revenue Growth Drivers - Fee income is a core growth driver, with M&A fees expected to grow 30% year-over-year, significantly above the consensus growth of 11% [3] - Equity Capital Markets (ECM) fees are projected to increase by 41%, compared to a consensus of 30%, while Debt Capital Markets (DCM) fees are expected to grow by 4% against a consensus of 3% [3] - Money center banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are expected to see over 9% year-over-year growth in fee income for 2025 [3] Group 4: Capital Returns - The median dividend payout ratio for banks in 2025 is expected to be around 30%, with money center banks showing a slight decrease from 27% to 29% [3] - JPMorgan is projected to pay $5.80 per share in dividends, while Citigroup is expected to pay $2.32 per share [3] - Stock buybacks are anticipated to increase significantly, with JPMorgan expected to repurchase $38.01 billion in 2025, up from $18.84 billion in 2024, and Citigroup expected to repurchase $13.47 billion, a substantial increase from $2.5 billion in 2024 [3] Group 5: Overall Outlook - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on North American large banks, suggesting that money center banks will outperform due to investment banking and trading income, while super-regional banks show stable asset quality [4] - Trust banks are expected to face pressure on net interest margins but still demonstrate resilience supported by fee income [4]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: State Street Corporation (STT) - State Street Corporation currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong potential for outperformance [3][4] - The stock has shown positive short-term price activity, with shares up 0.58% over the past week, contrasting with a 1.23% decline in the Zacks Banks - Major Regional industry [6] - Over the last month, STT's price increased by 4.32%, significantly outperforming the industry's 0.93% [6] - In the longer term, STT shares have risen 14.59% over the past quarter and 31.98% over the last year, compared to the S&P 500's gains of 8.11% and 19.22%, respectively [7] Trading Volume - The average 20-day trading volume for STT is 1,549,088 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, 6 earnings estimates for STT have been revised upwards, with no downward revisions, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $9.79 to $9.96 [10] - For the next fiscal year, 6 estimates have also moved higher without any downward revisions [10] Conclusion - Given the positive momentum indicators and earnings outlook, STT is positioned as a strong buy candidate for investors seeking short-term opportunities [12]

Core Insights - State Street Corporation's institutional investor risk appetite indicator remained positive in September, marking five consecutive months of optimistic sentiment, with the latest value matching the 2025 high reached in July [1] - As of the end of September, long-term investors maintained their asset allocation in equities, fixed income, and cash, indicating that funds have not returned to long-duration bonds, with fixed income holdings significantly below long-term averages, suggesting a continued preference for high-risk assets among institutional investors [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market has seen significant dollar selling, with the reduction reaching the highest level since early 2021, as funds flow into carry trade currencies, with investors increasing their positions in high-risk commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar [1] - In the equity market, North America remains the most favored region, with increased buying momentum in U.S. stocks pushing up positions, while buying in Asian emerging market stocks has slowed [1] - Demand for fixed income products is moderate, but emerging market bonds have regained popularity among investors [1]

State Street Corporation (STT) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.Individ ...

Core Insights - State Street is expanding its MyIncome bond ladder fund suite by adding high-yield bond ETFs, which will be actively managed [1][2] - The new ETFs will complement the existing MyIncome series, which includes corporate and municipal bond ETFs with maturities from 2026 to 2035 [2][3] - The high-yield bond market is currently facing challenges, with spreads indicating that high-yield bonds may not be an ideal investment at this time [4] Product Development - State Street is preparing to launch five target-maturity high-yield ETFs, a product category currently dominated by iShares and Invesco [2] - The MyIncome series, launched last year, has a total asset representation of approximately $217 million [4] - Invesco and iShares also have high-yield ETF series with maturities ranging from 2025 to 2033 and 2025 to 2032, respectively, with assets of $3.5 billion and $2.5 billion [5] Market Context - The interest in high-yield bonds is increasing among asset managers, as evidenced by Vanguard's recent launch of its first actively managed high-yield ETF [4] - Despite the appeal of high-yield ETFs, current market conditions suggest that the risk-reward balance may not be favorable, as BBB bonds are priced similarly to AAAs [4] - Target-maturity ETFs provide a way for advisors to create bond ladders without the complexities of managing individual securities, offering flexibility in cash flow management [4]

Group 1 - International gold prices reached a historical high before a slight retreat, with spot gold rising to $3860 per ounce as of October 3 [1] - Silver prices also saw significant gains, with New York silver futures increasing by up to 2%, reaching $47.22 per ounce [1] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that central bank gold demand will remain between 900 to 950 tons in 2025 [3] - UBS anticipates that gold prices may rise to $4200 per ounce in the coming months after a strong performance [3] - Aakash Doshi from State Street Global Advisors noted that silver is experiencing a lagging rally, as its performance has not matched that of gold in recent quarters [3] - The supply of silver has consistently lagged behind demand growth in recent years, which has contributed to the current market dynamics [3]

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan Asset Management has filed for approval of its Total Credit ETF, which will allocate up to 15% of assets to private credit, indicating a growing interest in private credit investments [1][4] - The convergence of the US corporate credit market is noted, with issuers moving fluidly between public bonds and private credit, highlighting the diversification benefits and yield potential of private credit [2][4] - The private credit market has seen significant growth, with semiliquid funds sold to nonqualified buyers reaching $450 billion in assets, a 77% increase from 2022 [4] Company Developments - J.P. Morgan's Total Credit ETF aims to underwrite investments in primary or secondary markets, although specific fees for the ETF have not been disclosed [4] - Other major asset managers, including Capital Group and KKR, have launched private-credit interval funds that have collectively reached nearly $500 million [6] - Vanguard, Wellington, and Blackstone are also preparing to launch a private credit fund called the WVB All Markets Fund [6] Market Trends - The interest in private credit ETFs is still developing, with retail investors not yet heavily investing in this category [5] - High yields from private credit funds make them attractive for a small portion of investor portfolios, with aggressive portfolios currently holding between 5% to 10% in private credit [3]