来源：滚动播报 道富银行：鹰派错了，料美联储再降息50个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The foundation for the current bull market remains solid, supported by growing earnings and favorable fiscal and monetary policies [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Earnings are growing by double digits, with analysts increasing their expectations for future earnings [2]. - Historically, the US has not experienced a recession when earnings are growing year-over-year, indicating a positive outlook despite potential risks [3]. Market Reactions - The market has shown limited reaction to potential government shutdowns, with past shutdowns often resulting in GDP expansion and S&P 500 gains [4][5]. - Consumer spending remains strong, contributing to a positive market outlook as the seasonally favorable period approaches [6]. Employment Trends - Unemployment rates are at 4.3%, and while claims have increased, companies are not significantly laying off workers, suggesting stability in the labor market [8]. Potential Risks - The upcoming Supreme Court decision on tariffs could pose a market risk if found illegal, potentially impacting long-term bond yields and overall market stability [10][11]. - The current trade policy environment may induce market volatility depending on the Supreme Court's ruling [12].

Core Insights - State Street (STT) is valued at $33.3 billion and operates as a financial holding company providing a range of products and services for institutional investors globally [1] - The stock has shown strong technical momentum, trading above key moving averages, and has received a 100% "Buy" opinion from Barchart [5][6] - STT has experienced a significant price increase of nearly 33% over the past year, with an all-time high of $117.31 reached on September 29 [4][5][6] Company Overview - State Street serves a diverse clientele, including mutual fund providers, collective investment fund managers, corporate and public retirement plan providers, insurance companies, foundations, endowments, and investment managers [1] Technical Analysis - The stock has a Weighted Alpha of +37.24 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 66.36, indicating strong performance [6] - STT has maintained its Trend Seeker "Buy" signal and has made five new highs while gaining 1.98% in the last month [6] - A technical support level is identified around $116.07, providing a potential safety net for investors [6]

State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT ), which traces its roots back to 1792, is one of the oldest bank's still operating in the U.S. Over the past decade, State Street shares have delivered a total return of 123%. Comparably, theAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in STT over the next 72 hours. I wrote ...

State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT ), which traces its roots back to 1792, is one of the oldest bank's still operating in the U.S. Over the past decade, State Street shares have delivered a total return of 123%. Comparably, theAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in STT over the next 72 hours. I wrote ...

Core Thesis - State Street Corporation (STT) is positioned as a cornerstone in global asset servicing, safeguarding trillions in client assets and generating steady, high-margin fees [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated robust fundamentals with operating margins near 30% and free cash flow conversion exceeding 90% [2]. - Revenue growth has been consistent at 8–10% annually over the past three years, driven by rising assets under management [2]. - Net margins are approximately 20%, reflecting operational leverage and low credit-loss costs [2]. Valuation Metrics - STT maintains a conservative debt/equity ratio of around 0.5× and interest coverage above 10× [3]. - The free cash flow yield is approximately 6%, supporting a dividend yield of about 2.8% [3]. - Valuation metrics are modest relative to peers, with a forward P/E of around 12× and P/FCF of approximately 8×, indicating limited downside and potential for total return [3]. Technical Analysis - The stock has experienced a strong uptrend since April, with recent consolidation around the critical $109.50 support zone [3]. - Key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels suggest that holding the $109.50 pivot could lead to targets between $111 and $114, while a break below $108.50 risks deeper pullbacks toward $106.40 [3]. - The stock remains above major SMAs, with Ichimoku indicators confirming the uptrend [3]. Investment Strategy - A disciplined trade plan involves accumulating shares in the $109.50–$109.00 range, scaling into dips, and adding on a confirmed breakout above $110.50 [4]. - The rising secular trends in passive investing and favorable rate environments support further upside, making STT an attractive play for both income-focused and growth-oriented investors [4].

Partnership Overview - State Street Investment Management has entered a multi-year partnership with the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA), becoming the league's official investment management partner [1] - The partnership includes State Street as the title sponsor of the WNBA Preseason and the WNBA Coach of the Year Award, as well as the presenting partner of a rookie-focused content series called "Year 1" [2] Strategic Initiatives - The partnership aims to educate WNBA fans about investing and financial goals, with initiatives including youth clinics led by WNBA ambassadors and refurbishing community basketball courts [8] - State Street will feature WNBA Hall of Famer Lisa Leslie in its "Getting There Starts Here" campaign, discussing her journey and the importance of investing [9] Leadership Statements - WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert highlighted the shared mission of inspiring and supporting fans beyond the game, emphasizing the innovative leadership of State Street in the investment management industry [3] - Yie-Hsin Hung, president and CEO of State Street Investment Management, expressed excitement about partnering with one of the fastest-growing brands in sports to help fans learn about investing [6]

Core Insights - State Street Corporation has launched its Enterprise Performance solution, powered by Opturo®, for clients using the Charles River Investment Management Solution (IMS) and State Street Alpha® [1] - The new solution features a fully integrated performance calculation engine aimed at enhancing efficiency in performance operations [1] - This cloud-based solution addresses data exchange issues that are common in other performance management systems [1]

Core Viewpoint - A significant strategy known as "hedging against the US" is emerging in global capital markets, characterized by a massive influx of international funds into the US while simultaneously a potential trillion-dollar wave of shorting the dollar is brewing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major Wall Street banks, including State Street, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas, predict that the ongoing hedging activities will significantly pressure the dollar's performance in the coming year [2][8]. - Deutsche Bank noted that since mid-year, inflows into "dollar-hedged" US asset ETFs have surpassed those into "non-dollar-hedged" funds for the first time in a decade, indicating an unprecedented speed of this shift [2][8]. Group 2: Scale of Hedging - The potential scale of this hedging wave is estimated at approximately $1 trillion, which would restore the hedging ratio of global investors holding over $30 trillion in US stocks and bonds to the average level of the past decade [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Foreign investors currently hold about $20 trillion in US stocks and approximately $14 trillion in US bonds, with a noted decrease in their hedging ratios for fixed income and equities by about five and two percentage points, respectively, in recent years [11]. - A survey by Bank of America revealed that 38% of global fund managers are seeking to increase currency hedging to counter a weakening dollar, marking the highest level since June [13]. Group 4: Operational Strategies - One common hedging method employed by overseas investors is selling dollar forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, which typically translates into selling pressure on the dollar in the spot market [9]. - The current hedging ratio for foreign investors has stabilized around 56%, down from approximately 70% mid-year, indicating a strategic shift rather than a mass liquidation of US assets [11].

Group 1 - A significant strategy in global capital markets is emerging, termed "hedging the dollar," with international funds flowing into the US while a potential $1 trillion shorting wave against the dollar is developing [1][4] - Major banks like State Street, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas predict that this hedging trend will significantly pressure the dollar's performance in the coming year [1][4] - Deutsche Bank noted that since mid-2023, inflows into "dollar-hedged" US asset ETFs have surpassed "non-dollar-hedged" funds for the first time in a decade, indicating an unprecedented speed of this shift [1] Group 2 - The estimated scale of the hedging wave is around $1 trillion, which would restore the hedging ratio of global investors holding over $30 trillion in US stocks and bonds to the average level of the past decade [4] - The dollar's strength has been challenged, particularly after the Trump administration's tariff policies in April, which led to a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, contributing to the dollar's decline [6] - Analysts suggest that if the market speculates that the Federal Reserve is pressured by the White House to lower rates, the logical approach would be to favor US stocks and bonds while disfavoring the dollar [7] Group 3 - The most common hedging method among overseas investors is selling dollar forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, which translates into selling pressure on the dollar in the spot market [5] - As of April, the hedging ratio for foreign investors holding US assets stabilized around 56%, down from approximately 70% in mid-2023, indicating a significant shift in hedging behavior [8] - A recent survey by Bank of America revealed that 38% of global fund managers are seeking to increase currency hedging to address dollar weakness, marking the highest level since June [8]