格隆汇9月16日｜评级机构标普将新鸿基地产的评级展望由负面调整为稳定，并维持其A+长期发行人信 贷评级及已担保优先无担保票据的评级。机构指，集团在财务上实施积极主动管理，有稳固现金流，以 及在买地方面保持纪律，以确保其信用，相信新地多元及具规模的收租组合，有助缓解本地地产发展业 务营运边际利润受压的情况。标普预计，由2026年6月底止年度起至2028年度，凭着其住宅的销售纪录 及执行力，债务会按年减少40亿至50亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - New World Development's fiscal year 2025 core net profit is expected to grow by 0.5%, aligning with expectations, primarily benefiting from strong profits in mainland property development and reduced financial costs, despite weak profits from Hong Kong property development [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The investment property performance is mixed, with Hong Kong office buildings outperforming the market [1] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The IGC in Hong Kong and ITC in Shanghai are set to be completed and opened in fiscal year 2026, supporting recurring income growth [1] - The target price for New World Development is set at HKD 103, implying a forecast yield of 4% for fiscal year 2026 [1] - Earnings forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 have been revised down by 9% and 11% respectively due to declining sales profits in Hong Kong [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dahua Jixiang's report indicates that Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) is expected to see a 0.5% growth in basic net profit for the fiscal year 2025, aligning with expectations, primarily benefiting from strong profits in Chinese property development and a decrease in financial costs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The basic net profit growth of 0.5% for fiscal year 2025 is mainly attributed to robust profits from property development in China and reduced financial costs [1] - The performance of investment properties is mixed, with Hong Kong office buildings outperforming the market [1] Group 2: Future Prospects - The completion and opening of IGC in Hong Kong and ITC in Shanghai are anticipated in fiscal year 2026, which will support recurring income growth [1] - Management has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50% [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for Sun Hung Kai Properties, with a target price of HKD 103, implying a forecasted yield of 4% for fiscal year 2026 [1]

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，新鸿基地产(00016)2025财年基础净利润增长0.5%，基本符 合预期，主要受惠于中国物业发展利润强劲及财务成本下降。投资物业表现不一，香港写字楼表现优于 市场。香港的IGC和上海的ITC将于2026财年完工并开业，支持经常性收入增长；管理层承诺将派息比 率维持在50%。该行维持对新地的"买入"评级，目标价103港元，意味着2026财年预测收益率达4%。 ...

瑞银发布研报称，新鸿基地产(00016)2025财年核心盈利为219亿港元，同比增长1%，大致符合该行预 期。然而，香港物业发展利润率在2025财年大幅下降至12%，低于去年的26%，瑞银预期股价将对这一 利润率失望表现略有负面反应。瑞银维持新地目标价为96港元，基于对每股资产净值189港元的50%折 让，并略微下调2026至2027财年盈利预测1%至4%，以反映最新的物业发展预订情况;评级"买入"。 该行表示，新鸿基地产香港租金持续疲弱，内地零售显示改善迹象，2025财下半财年(2025年1月至6 月)，新地在香港的应占总租金收入同比下降3%，办公室租金下降5%，零售租金下降3%。管理层指 出，租金调整仍为负数，零售为低单位数，办公室为高单位数。内地租金收入亦同比下降3%，办公室 及零售板块均下跌2%至3%。然而，自6月以来，内地租户销售显示强劲复苏势头，得益于老铺黄金开 业及上海IFC商场的奢侈品租户扩张。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，新鸿基地产(00016)2025财年核心盈利为219亿港元，同比增长 1%，大致符合该行预期。然而，香港物业发展利润率在2025财年大幅下降至12%，低于去年的26%，瑞 银预期股价将对这一利润率失望表现略有负面反应。瑞银维持新地目标价为96港元，基于对每股资产净 值189港元的50%折让，并略微下调2026至2027财年盈利预测1%至4%，以反映最新的物业发展预订情 况;评级"买入"。 该行表示，新鸿基地产香港租金持续疲弱，内地零售显示改善迹象，2025财下半财年(2025年1月至6 月)，新地在香港的应占总租金收入同比下降3%，办公室租金下降5%，零售租金下降3%。管理层指 出，租金调整仍为负数，零售为低单位数，办公室为高单位数。内地租金收入亦同比下降3%，办公室 及零售板块均下跌2%至3%。然而，自6月以来，内地租户销售显示强劲复苏势头，得益于老铺黄金开 业及上海IFC商场的奢侈品租户扩张。 ...

（文章来源：证券时报网） 高盛将新地的12个月目标价从104港元下调8%至96港元，但维持"买入"评级，原因在于预计新地将持续 受益于香港物业市场周期逐步转势。 高盛研究报告指出，新鸿基地产截至今年6月底的下半财年每股基础盈利为3.93港元，基于新地下半财 年业绩、管理层指引及最新入账计划，高盛已将新地2026至2028财年每股基础盈利预测分别下调14%、 12%及2%。股息预测亦作出相应调整，下调4%、下调3%及上调3%。高盛预计未来三年平均派息比率 约为49%，低于过去五年平均的52%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has lowered the target price for Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) to HKD 96 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing ongoing benefits from the gradual turnaround in the Hong Kong property market cycle [2][3] Financial Performance - For the half-year ending June 30, Sun Hung Kai Properties reported a basic earnings per share of HKD 3.93, reflecting a 9% increase compared to the previous half but an 11% year-on-year decline, which was 7% lower than Goldman Sachs' expectations [2] - Revenue was 24% below Goldman Sachs' forecast, primarily due to lower-than-expected contributions from property development and other non-property businesses [2] Profitability and Dividends - Goldman Sachs noted that property development revenue was 39% lower than their predictions, attributed to lower-than-expected revenue recognition in both Hong Kong and mainland markets [3] - Despite lower revenue, EBIT exceeded expectations due to higher profit margins from mainland operations [3] - The forecast for property development profit margins for the fiscal year ending June 2026 is set at 13%, with gradual recovery to 15% and 18% in the fiscal years 2027 and 2028, respectively, benefiting from an industry rebound [3] - Dividend forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 have been adjusted downwards by 4%, 3%, and increased by 3%, respectively, with an expected average payout ratio of approximately 49% over the next three years, compared to an average of 52% over the past five years [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported that Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) achieved a basic earnings per share of HKD 3.93 for the second half of the fiscal year ending June, representing a 9% increase compared to the previous half, but an 11% decrease year-on-year, and 7% lower than Goldman Sachs' expectations [1] - Revenue was 24% below Goldman Sachs' forecast, primarily due to lower-than-expected contributions from property development and other non-property businesses [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 4% year-on-year decline in dividends for the fiscal year 2026 due to basic earnings growth, followed by a 4% annual growth from 2027 to 2028, and has adjusted the target price down by 8% from HKD 104 to HKD 96 based on the price-to-book ratio against return on assets and return on equity [1] Group 2 - Property development revenue was 39% lower than Goldman Sachs' forecast due to lower-than-expected contributions from the Hong Kong and mainland markets [2] - EBIT exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations, attributed to higher profit margins from mainland operations [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a property development profit margin of 13% for the fiscal year ending June 2026, gradually recovering to 15% and 18% in 2027 and 2028, benefiting from an industry rebound [2] - Following the analysis of the second half performance, management guidance, and the latest revenue recognition plans, Goldman Sachs has revised down the basic earnings per share forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 14%, 12%, and 2% respectively, while adjusting dividend forecasts down by 4%, 3%, and up by 3% [2] - The average payout ratio for the next three years is expected to be around 49%, compared to an average of 52% over the past five years, with management reaffirming a maximum dividend payout ratio of 50% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities maintains a "Neutral" rating on Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) due to its fiscal year 2025 performance being slightly below expectations [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company is benefiting from a rebound in the Hong Kong residential market, but the low profit margin from property development may keep short-term earnings per share and dividends flat [1] - The target price for Sun Hung Kai Properties has been slightly increased from HKD 94 to HKD 95 [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share forecast for fiscal years 2026 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 1% to 4% due to changes in property sales recognition timing [1] - Unless there is a significant increase in Hong Kong property prices in the short term, earnings per share for fiscal years 2026 to 2027 are expected to remain relatively flat [1] Group 3: Market Comparison - Compared to peers with a 4% yield level, the company’s yield compression potential is considered limited [1]