证券研究报告 新鸿基地产 (16 HK) 港股通 业绩增速亮眼，租金彰显韧性 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 27 日│中国香港 | 房地产开发 | 目标价(港币): | 164.37 | 公司发布 FY26 上半财年业绩，FY1H26 实现营收 527 亿港币，同比+32%； 核心归母净利润 122 亿港币，同比+17%，而彭博一致预期 FY26 全年增速 为 5%；中期 DPS 为 0.98 港币，同比+3%。在内地开发结转放量等因素的 推动下，公司核心净利润同比增速亮眼，同时租金表现具备韧性，压降负债 后开始积极拓展香港土储。我们预计公司将持续受益于香港房地产市场复 苏，并在投资物业和租金规模上具备成长性。维持"买入"评级。 业绩增速亮眼，主因内地开发结转放量+投资物业出售+利息节省 FY1H26 公司核心净利润同比增速亮眼，主要因为：1、内地物业开发分部 利润同比+27 亿港币，主要来自杭州和苏州高利润项目的结转放量；2、出 售香港投资物业（帝景园、S ...

来源：第一财经 恒生指数收涨0.95%，恒生科技指数涨0.56%。新鸿基地产涨逾7%，药明生物涨逾5%，商汤涨近5%， 中国神华涨逾4%，长实集团、石药集团、药明康德涨逾3%。 ...

港股三大指数今日反弹，恒指及恒科指数均一度涨超1%。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.95%或249.52点，报 26630.54点，全日成交额2884.2亿港元；恒生国企指数涨0.51%，报8859.49点；恒生科技指数涨0.56%， 报5137.84点。全月来看，恒指累跌2.76%，国指累跌4.91%，恒科指数累跌10.15%。 摩根士丹利报告指出，A股投资情绪指标在农历新年后随成交量回升及对两会预期升温而有所改善。但 受人工智能颠覆影响的担忧及竞争压力，离岸中资股仍面临挑战。大型平台公司的AI能力提升、盈利 改善及外部市场的稳定将是未来的观察关键。 蓝筹股表现 新鸿基地产(00016)创新高。截至收盘，涨7.12%，报146港元，成交额22.96亿港元，贡献恒指22.72点。 摩根大通研报指出，新鸿基地产2026上半财年盈利按年增长17%，远高于该行预期的4%增幅，主要受 惠于中国内地发展物业利润远超预期。这是三年来新地首次提高中期股息3%，此举显示管理层的信 心。 其他蓝筹股方面，药明生物(02269)涨5.07%，报40.22港元，贡献恒指11.5点；中国神华（601088） (01088)涨4.03%，报4 ...

热门板块方面 盘面上，大型科技股有所回暖，腾讯涨1.17%，美团涨0.87%。钨、稀土等金属涨价趋势明显，佳鑫国 际资源大涨超15%创新高；金力永磁涨近7%；多家药企公布亮眼业绩，医药股多数反弹；云计算股盘 中拉升，金山云涨超7%；煤炭、钢铁、电力股等表现亮眼。另一边，存储概念跌幅居前；航空股、纸 业股等普遍承压。 1. 金属概念再度走高。截至收盘，佳鑫国际资源(03858)涨15.122%，报97.85港元；金力永磁(06680)涨 6.78%，报25.5港元。 今年以来，在供需持续紧张、新兴需求爆发以及战略定价重构等多因素催化下，小金属各类品种涨价趋 势明显，尤其钨、稀土等品种，涨价趋势较强。值得关注的是，有报道称，美国航空航天和半导体公司 的供应商当前正面临日益严重的稀土短缺，已有至少两家供应商开始拒接部分客户订单。另外，美国拟 利用国防部开发的AI模型，为全球关键矿产贸易制定参考价格。将率先制定锗、镓、锑、钨的参考价 格。 2. 医药股多数反弹。截至收盘，药明合联(02268)涨8.23%，报63.15港元；基石药业-B(02616)涨7.05%， 报6.68港元；康方生物(09926)涨4.91%， ...

报告指，新地中期股息同比升3%至0.98港元，显示管理层对业务展望信心增强。全年维持派发基础净 利润40%至50%的股息政策。假设48%派息率，高盛预计新地全年总股息3.96港元，意味同比升6%。 高盛发布研报称，新鸿基地产(00016)去年12月底止2026财年上半年业绩符合预期，并在分析师简报会 上对香港物业业务前景表达更乐观态度。考虑到香港部分物业项目略高的发展利润率，高盛将新地2027 至2028财年的每股盈利预测上调2%至13%，并将目标价由159港元上调至164港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

报告指，新地中期股息同比升3%至0.98港元，显示管理层对业务展望信心增强。全年维持派发基础净 利润40%至50%的股息政策。假设48%派息率，高盛预计新地全年总股息3.96港元，意味同比升6%。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，新鸿基地产(00016)去年12月底止2026财年上半年业绩符合预期， 并在分析师简报会上对香港物业业务前景表达更乐观态度。考虑到香港部分物业项目略高的发展利润 率，高盛将新地2027至2028财年的每股盈利预测上调2%至13%，并将目标价由159港元上调至164港 元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月27日｜港股主要指数午后拉升，其中，恒生指数涨超1%，恒生科技指数涨近1%，国企指数 涨0.74%。恒生指数成分股中，新鸿基地产涨超6%领涨，药明生物涨超4%，石药集团、药明康德涨超 3%，网易、携程、腾讯、泡泡玛特、蒙牛乳业、中通快递涨超2%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨跌幅 √ | 年初至今涨跌 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00016 | 新鸿基地产 | (0) | 6.02% | 52.59% | 4187.29 Z | | 02269 | 药明生物 | | 4.81% | 27.61% | 1659.98亿 | | 01093 | 石药集团 | | 3.67% | 17.32% | 1139.57亿 | | 02359 | 药明康德 | | 3.04% | 20.36% | 3544.7 Z | | 099999 | 网易-S | | 2.74% | -16.22% | 5692.45 Z | | 09961 | 携程集团-S | | 2.60% | -25.85% | 2685亿 | | 00700 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The group's underlying profit for the six months ended December 2025 was HKD 12.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% driven by higher profits from trading and investment properties and lower finance costs [2][3] - Reported profit increased to HKD 10.2 billion, reflecting a 36.2% year-on-year growth [3] - The underlying earnings per share was HKD 4.21, while reported earnings per share was HKD 3.54 [3] - An interim dividend of HKD 0.98 per share was declared, marking a 3.2% increase from HKD 0.95 last year [3] - Net debt stood at HKD 83.6 billion with an improved gearing ratio of 13.5% compared to 15.1% in June 2025 [4][5] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - In property development, profit reached approximately HKD 4.9 billion, a substantial increase of 94.9% primarily due to higher profit recognition from Mainland projects [3] - The hotel business recorded an operating profit of HKD 428 million, up from HKD 377 million in the same period last year [4] - Profit from other business segments was about HKD 2.3 billion, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year decrease [4] - The group's total operating profit for the first half of fiscal year 2026 was HKD 16.5 billion, representing a 14.3% increase year-on-year [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hong Kong primary residential market saw higher transaction volumes and a modest price recovery, with contracted sales of about HKD 17.4 billion during the period [8][9] - The Mainland property development business recognized property sales of approximately HKD 5.9 billion, driven by higher residential sales volume [12] - The Mainland rental portfolio's gross rental income held steady at about RMB 3.1 billion, with a slight decrease of 0.8% in RMB terms [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong financial position to seize land opportunities in Hong Kong while upholding prudent financial management [5][17] - The strategy includes leveraging a reputable brand to drive premium sales and ongoing portfolio reviews to enhance returns [5][6] - The company plans to continue replenishing its land bank through various channels at reasonable costs to support future growth [6][7] - New projects such as IGC and Artist Square Towers are expected to generate additional rental income gradually [17][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in the long-term prospects of both Hong Kong and the Mainland, citing steady economic growth and supportive policies [16][26] - The company anticipates that the strong momentum in the residential market will continue, supported by improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable mortgage conditions [35][36] - The management highlighted the importance of adapting to new circumstances and leveraging technology to enhance property quality and services [18][27] Other Important Information - The group celebrated the completion of the International Gateway Centre (IGC), a world-class commercial landmark with high connectivity [23][24] - The company is committed to sustainability and has received high ratings for its green building initiatives [16][24] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the outlook for Hong Kong property home prices? - Management indicated that the Hong Kong residential market is entering a new phase of recovery, with positive rental carry attracting investors and end-users [34] Question: What is the company's pricing strategy for residential projects? - The company maintains a flexible pricing strategy, adjusting prices based on market conditions to achieve a balance between volume and margin [54] Question: What is the leasing progress for IGC and Artist Square Towers? - Management reported strong interest in IGC, with leasing progress on track, and noted that Artist Square Towers is expected to attract tenants due to its unique location [41][42]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The group's underlying profit for the six months ended December 2025 was HKD 12.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% driven by higher profits from trading and investment properties and lower finance costs [2][3] - Reported profit increased to HKD 10.2 billion, reflecting a 36.2% year-on-year growth [3] - The underlying earnings per share was HKD 4.21, while reported earnings per share was HKD 3.54 [3] - An interim dividend of HKD 0.98 per share was declared, marking a 3.2% increase from HKD 0.95 last year [3] - Net debt stood at HKD 83.6 billion with an improved gearing ratio of 13.5% compared to 15.1% in June 2025 [4][5] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - In property development, profit reached approximately HKD 4.9 billion, a substantial increase of 94.9% primarily due to higher profit recognition from Mainland projects [3] - The hotel business recorded an operating profit of HKD 428 million, up from HKD 377 million in the same period last year [4] - Profit from other business segments decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to about HKD 2.3 billion [4] - The group's total operating profit for the first half of fiscal year 2026 was HKD 16.5 billion, representing a 14.3% increase year-on-year [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hong Kong primary residential market saw higher transaction volumes and a modest price recovery, with contracted sales of about HKD 17.4 billion during the period [8][9] - The group's gross rental income in Hong Kong remained stable at around HKD 8.8 billion, with an overall average occupancy of approximately 92% [10] - The Mainland rental portfolio's gross rental income held steady at about RMB 3.1 billion, with a slight decrease of 0.8% in RMB terms [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong financial position to seize land opportunities in Hong Kong while focusing on prudent financial management [5][17] - The strategy includes leveraging a reputable brand to drive premium sales and ongoing portfolio reviews to enhance returns [5][17] - The company plans to continue launching new residential projects and unsold units while enhancing the competitiveness of its property investment portfolio [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in the Hong Kong market's recovery, supported by robust IPO activities and favorable mortgage conditions [16][17] - The company anticipates continued strong demand for residential properties, driven by low mortgage rates and improving supply-demand dynamics [35][36] - The management highlighted the importance of adapting to new circumstances and leveraging technology to enhance property quality and services [18] Other Important Information - The group has a total land bank in Hong Kong of about 57.3 million sq ft and in Mainland China of 64.6 million sq ft [6][12] - The International Gateway Centre (IGC) is positioned as a key commercial landmark with high connectivity and sustainability credentials [23][24] - The company is committed to sustainability initiatives and enhancing the quality of living through its developments [16] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is your view and outlook for the Hong Kong property home price? - Management noted that the Hong Kong residential market is entering a new phase of recovery, with positive rental carry attracting investors and end users [34] Question: Can we have an update on the leasing progress for the IGC and Artist Square Towers? - Management indicated strong interest in IGC, with leasing progressing well, particularly from the financial services sector [41][42] Question: What is your latest pricing strategy for residential projects in Hong Kong? - The company adheres to current market conditions, with moderate price increases to achieve sales targets while balancing volume and margin [54] Question: Any plans for asset disposal or changes in dividend policy? - Management stated there are no current plans for further asset disposals beyond Dynasty Court, and the dividend policy remains at 40%-50% of profits [57][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The group's underlying profit for H1 2026 was HKD 12.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% driven by higher profits from sales of trading and investment properties and lower finance costs [1] - Reported profit increased to HKD 10.2 billion, up 36.2% year-on-year, with underlying earnings per share at HKD 4.21 and reported earnings per share at HKD 3.54 [2] - The interim dividend declared was HKD 0.98 per share, a 3.2% increase from HKD 0.95 last year [2] - Total operating profit for H1 2026 reached HKD 16.5 billion, representing a 14.3% increase year-on-year [3] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - In property development, profit was approximately HKD 4.9 billion, a substantial increase of 94.9%, primarily due to higher profit recognition from Mainland projects [2] - The hotel business recorded an operating profit of HKD 428 million, up from HKD 377 million in the same period last year [3] - Profit from other business segments decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to about HKD 2.3 billion [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hong Kong residential market saw a 65% increase in property sales, totaling HKD 26.5 billion [5] - The group's gross rental income in Hong Kong remained stable at about HKD 8.8 billion, with an overall average occupancy of around 92% [9] - The Mainland rental portfolio's gross rental income held steady at about RMB 3.1 billion, with a slight decrease of 0.8% in RMB terms [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong financial position to seize land opportunities in Hong Kong while focusing on prudent financial management [4] - The strategy includes leveraging a reputable brand for premium sales, ongoing portfolio reviews to enhance returns, and expanding the recurrent income base through new investment properties [4][11] - The company plans to launch various new residential projects over the next 10 months, including significant developments in Kowloon and Yuen Long [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the Hong Kong residential market's recovery, citing strong demand from end users and investors, and an improving supply-demand situation [33] - The company anticipates continued strong momentum in property sales and a favorable mortgage environment supporting market stability [16] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to new circumstances and leveraging technology to enhance property quality and services [17] Other Important Information - The group's total land bank in Hong Kong was about 57.3 million sq ft, with ongoing efforts to replenish it through various channels [5] - The International Gateway Centre (IGC) is positioned as a key commercial landmark with excellent transport connectivity, expected to support the transformation of West Kowloon [10][24] - The company remains committed to sustainability and has received high ratings for its new projects [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for Hong Kong property home prices - Management noted that the residential market is in a recovery phase, with transaction volumes reaching record highs and positive rental trends expected to continue [32] Question: Update on residential sales targets - The company plans to maintain its sales target for FY 2026 at HKD 30 billion, with several new projects set to launch [34][35] Question: Leasing progress for IGC and Artist Square Towers - Management reported strong interest in IGC, with leasing progressing well, and expressed confidence in the leasing situation for Artist Square Towers [39][42]