Core Insights - The article emphasizes the expertise of a seasoned equity analyst who specializes in the U.S. restaurant industry, covering various segments from quick-service to fine dining [1] - The analyst employs advanced financial modeling and sector-specific KPIs to identify hidden value in public equities, particularly focusing on micro and small-cap companies often overlooked by mainstream analysts [1] Industry Focus - The research firm, Goulart's Restaurant Stocks, is dedicated to thematic research and valuation efforts within the restaurant sector, indicating a strong commitment to uncovering investment opportunities [1] - The analyst also covers related sectors such as consumer discretionary, food & beverage, and casinos & gaming, showcasing a broad understanding of interconnected industries [1] Qualifications and Experience - The analyst holds an MBA in Controllership and Accounting Forensics, along with a Bachelor's in Business Administration, highlighting a solid academic foundation [1] - Specialized training in valuation, financial modeling, and restaurant operations further enhances the analyst's capability to provide insightful research [1]

If you enjoyed this, consider Ian's Insider Corner to enjoy access to similar initiation reports for all the new stocks that we buy. Membership also includes an active chat room, weekly updates, and my responses to your questions.Ian Bezek is a former hedge fund analyst at Kerrisdale Capital. He has spent the decade living in Latin America, doing the boots-on-the ground research for investors interested in markets such as Mexico, Colombia, and Chile. He also specializes in high-quality compounders and growt ...

Group 1 - Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a more favorable earnings estimate revision trend compared to BBB Foods (TBBB), which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - Value investors analyze various traditional metrics to assess whether a company is undervalued, including P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, and cash flow per share [4] - ACI's forward P/E ratio is 8.09, significantly lower than TBBB's forward P/E of 190.67, suggesting ACI may be a better value investment [5] Group 2 - ACI has a PEG ratio of 2.64, while TBBB's PEG ratio is 6.02, indicating ACI's expected earnings growth is more favorable [5] - ACI's P/B ratio is 3.15, compared to TBBB's P/B of 16.43, further supporting ACI's valuation as more attractive [6] - ACI's overall Value grade is A, while TBBB's Value grade is D, highlighting ACI's stronger position in value metrics [6]

Core Insights - BBB Foods Inc. reported a net loss of 1.42 billion Mexican pesos for Q3 2025, a significant decline from a net profit of 258 million Mexican pesos in the same quarter last year, primarily due to increased share-based compensation costs [1] - Despite the net loss, the company achieved a revenue of 20.28 billion Mexican pesos (approximately $1.09 billion), reflecting a year-over-year growth of 36.7%, although it slightly missed analyst revenue estimates by 0.29% [2] - Same-store sales increased by 17.9% year over year, contributing to a gross profit growth of 39.8% to 3.28 billion Mexican pesos, supported by a 36 basis-point increase in gross margin [3] Company Overview - BBB Foods operates Tiendas 3B, a hard discount grocery retailer in Mexico, focusing on low- and middle-income households by offering food, household items, and basic consumer goods at affordable prices [4] - The company's Chairman and CEO, K. Anthony Hatoum, described Q3 2025 as a "strong quarter," emphasizing the effectiveness of their strategy and disciplined execution [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues increased by 36.7% year-over-year, reaching MXN 20.3 billion [4][5] - Same-store sales grew by 17.9% [4][5] - Cash flow generated by operating activities reached MXN 3 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year [5] - EBITDA reported a loss of MXN 404 million, but excluding non-cash share-based payments, EBITDA increased by 43.6% to a positive MXN 1.2 billion [4][5][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 131 net new stores in the quarter, totaling 3,162 stores, and opened two distribution centers, bringing the total to 18 [4] - In the first nine months of 2025, 390 stores were opened compared to 346 in the same period last year [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The gap in same-store sales growth compared to Antad has increased to almost 17 percentage points [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand to no less than 14,000 stores in Mexico, indicating significant growth potential [10] - Continuous improvement in product quality and pricing is driving same-store sales growth [10] - The company is focused on talent investment as a key success factor [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong sales growth, driven by product improvements and market penetration [45] - The company is optimistic about future product innovations and their impact on sales [50] Other Important Information - The company has a robust plan for talent development to support future expansion [72] - Management noted that they do not anticipate any significant changes in the competitive landscape as they expand [37] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on gross margin and market share - Management indicated that as the company scales, commercial margins will improve due to lower purchasing costs and increased logistics efficiency [14][15] Question: Maturation of new store vintages - New store vintages are maturing faster than expected, leading to improved returns on invested capital [23][24] Question: Sales expenses and regional performance - Management expects more favorable comparisons on sales expenses in the next quarter and noted consistent performance across regions [28][30][32] Question: Product development and customer journey - The customer journey typically starts with basic goods, leading to increased basket sizes over time as customers gain trust in the brand [57][59] Question: Interest from larger players - Management stated there has been no significant interest from larger national or international players regarding a potential acquisition [86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues increased by 36.7% year-over-year, reaching MXN 20.3 billion [4][5] - Same-store sales grew by 17.9%, driven by improvements in the value proposition [4][5] - EBITDA reported a loss of MXN 404 million, but excluding non-cash share-based payments, EBITDA increased by 43.6% to a positive MXN 1.2 billion [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 131 net new stores in the quarter, totaling 3,162 stores, with 390 stores opened in the first nine months of 2025 compared to 346 in the same period last year [4][5] - Cash flow generated by operating activities reached MXN 3 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The gap versus ANTAD continues to increase, now almost 17 percentage points [6] - The company is one of the fastest-growing retailers globally, with significant room for expansion in Mexico, targeting a total of 14,000 stores [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on continuous improvement of its value proposition, which is driving same-store sales growth [10] - There is a strong emphasis on talent investment as a key success factor, with a high talent density within the team [11] - The company plans to continue expanding its store network and product offerings while maintaining operational efficiency [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong sales growth, driven by product improvements and a robust pipeline [45] - The company anticipates that margins will improve over time due to better purchasing terms and logistics efficiency [14][15] - Management noted that the competitive landscape remains strong but healthy, with no significant changes in competition [37] Other Important Information - The company has a net cash position of approximately MXN 1.1 billion and $151 million in short-term deposits [5] - Share-based compensation has been a key driver of attracting talent and aligning interests with shareholders [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on gross margin and market share - Management indicated that margins will improve as purchasing costs decrease and logistics efficiency increases, with a focus on enhancing the value proposition [14][15] Question: Maturation of new store vintages - New store vintages are maturing faster than expected, leading to improved returns on invested capital [23][24] Question: Sales expenses and regional performance - Management expects more favorable comparisons for sales expenses in the next quarter and noted consistent performance across regions [29][32] Question: Product development and customer journey - The customer journey typically starts with basic goods, leading to increased basket sizes as customers try new products [57][60] Question: Interest from larger players - Management stated there has been no significant interest from larger national or international players regarding a potential acquisition [86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues increased by 36.7% year-over-year, reaching MXN 20.3 billion [4][3] - Same-store sales grew by 17.9%, driven by improvements in the value proposition [4][3] - EBITDA reported a loss of MXN 404 million, but excluding non-cash share-based payments, EBITDA increased by 43.6% to MXN 1.2 billion [3][4] - Cash flow generated by operating activities reached MXN 3 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 131 net new stores in the quarter, totaling 3,162 stores, with 390 stores opened in the first nine months of 2025 compared to 346 in the same period last year [3][4] - The company opened two distribution centers in the quarter, bringing the total to 18 [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The gap in same-store sales growth compared to Antad has increased to almost 17 percentage points [4][5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand to no less than 14,000 stores in Mexico, indicating significant growth potential [8] - The focus remains on improving product quality and price, which strengthens brand equity and drives sales [8][9] - The company continues to invest in talent, viewing it as a key success factor [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong sales growth, driven by product improvements and a robust value proposition [45] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in the near future, with no expected weakness in semester sales [45] - Management noted that the competitive landscape remains strong and healthy, with no significant changes in competition [36] Other Important Information - The company has a strong focus on operational leverage and margin growth, with expectations for improvement over time [6][7] - Management highlighted the importance of long-term planning in supply chain management to mitigate risks [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on current value propositions and market share - Management indicated that margins will improve over time due to better purchasing costs and logistics efficiency, with a focus on enhancing the value proposition [12][13] Question: Maturation of new store vintages and returns - Management confirmed that new store vintages are maturing faster, leading to improved returns on invested capital [21][22] Question: Sales expenses and regional ramp-up - Management noted that sales expenses would show more favorable comparisons in the next quarter, and ramp-ups are consistent across regions [28][30] Question: Competition in new regions and same-store sales drivers - Management stated that competition remains strong and healthy, with same-store sales growth driven by increased transactions and basket sizes [36][37] Question: Confidence in maintaining sales growth and margin decisions - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong sales growth and explained that savings from efficiencies are allocated based on elasticity testing [42][45] Question: Updates on perishables category and product innovation - Management confirmed ongoing innovation across product categories, including perishables, with positive test results [49][50] Question: Interest from larger players and share valuation - Management stated there has been no significant interest from larger players regarding a potential acquisition, emphasizing the company's strong growth metrics [86]

Tiendas 3B Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Disclaimer Statements in this presentation, including the possible or assumed future or other performance of BBB Foods Inc. (the "Company", "we", "us", "our") or our industry, our targets or other trends and estimates, constitute "forward- looking statements". Statements contained herein that are not clearly historical in nature are forward-looking, and the words "anticipate," "believe,", "continues," "expect," "estimate," "intend," "plans," "project," "target ...

Core Insights - BBB Foods reported $1.09 billion in revenue for the quarter ended September 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 38.8% [1] - The company experienced an EPS of -$0.66, a decline from $0.10 a year ago, with an EPS surprise of -53.49% compared to the consensus estimate of -$0.43 [1] - The revenue matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a surprise of -0.29% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total Stores: 3,162, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of 3,176 [4] - Same Store Sales Growth: 17.9%, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of 16.3% [4] - Number of Stores Opened: 131, compared to the average estimate of 145 by two analysts [4] Stock Performance - Shares of BBB Foods have returned +0.8% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has seen a -0.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - BBB Foods reported a quarterly loss of $0.66 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.43, and a significant decline from earnings of $0.1 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -53.49% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.09 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.29%, and showing an increase from year-ago revenues of $784.58 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, BBB Foods has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates and has topped consensus revenue estimates only once [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - BBB Foods shares have increased by approximately 3.2% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 12.5% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is -$0.29 on revenues of $1.18 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.49 on revenues of $4.22 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Consumer Products - Staples industry, to which BBB Foods belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact BBB Foods' stock performance [5] - The unfavorable trend in estimate revisions prior to the earnings release has resulted in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) for BBB Foods, indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6]