腾讯控股 20250515 摘要 • 腾讯 2025 年第一季度收入增长 11%，利润增长 19%，超出市场预期， 主要得益于游戏和广告业务的强劲表现。国内游戏收入增长 24%，海外游 戏收入增长 23%（按固定汇率计算为 28%），创八个季度新高，广告业 务同比增长 20%，高于市场预期的 18-19%。 • 游戏业务方面，《王者荣耀》、《穿越火线》等手游表现亮眼，《西游 记》四月份日活跃用户峰值达到 1,200 万，为近三年新游最高。海外游戏 如《荒野乱斗》也推动流水增长。尽管去年同期有《DNF》上线导致基数 较高，但递延收入仍保持旺盛，预计二季度游戏业务将继续保持良好表现。 • 广告业务增长主要受益于视频号广告加载率提升和 AI 技术应用。视频号广 告增速超过 60%，远超行业平均水平，但加载率仍有提升空间，目前约为 3%-4%，低于抖音、快手等平台。通过提高广告加载率和点击率 （CTR），有望进一步推动广告营收增长。 • AI 技术对腾讯业务产生显著影响，在广告领域，通过 AI 提高曝光度和转化 性能，提升视频号等平台观影时间及精准推荐能力，从而提高 CTR 并促进 广告营收。在游戏领域，AI 智能体 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is strategically positioning itself in the competitive artificial intelligence landscape in China, leveraging its WeChat ecosystem to develop unique agentic AI capabilities that differentiate it from rivals [2][5][6]. Group 1: Tencent's AI Strategy - Tencent executives believe that their focus on "agentic AI" will provide a competitive advantage in the rapidly evolving AI sector, where significant investments are being made by tech giants [2]. - The company has introduced its own chatbot, Yuanbao, which is based on its foundational model and aims to evolve into a "general agentic AI" [5]. - Tencent's president acknowledged that their AI offerings may not significantly differ from those of competitors like Alibaba and Baidu, but emphasized a second product that will leverage the WeChat ecosystem [5][6]. Group 2: WeChat Ecosystem - WeChat, with 1.4 billion monthly users, is not just a messaging app but a super-app that integrates various services such as mobile payments, gaming, and utility bill payments [3]. - The unique features of WeChat, including content creation, messaging, and Mini Programs, provide a foundation for developing a differentiated agentic AI that can interact with various applications within the ecosystem [6][7]. - Tencent has already begun implementing AI tools in WeChat, such as search and content generation, indicating a long-term vision to enhance its AI capabilities in response to increasing competition [7].

The Chinese tech giant Tencent said it has a "pretty strong stockpile of chips" to tide it through America's chip sale restrictions. The company's president, Martin Lau, was speaking to investors during an earnings call on Wednesday when he was asked how Tencent would deal with US chip restrictions.Lau said "it's a very dynamic situation" that Tencent is managing, and it's trying to "figure out the right solution" to make sure its AI strategy "can still be executed." Lau told investors that Tencent can ...

Group 1: Tencent's AI Investments and Financial Performance - Tencent's AI investments have started to yield positive results, contributing significantly to its gaming and advertising sectors, with a revenue increase of 13% year over year to 180 billion yuan ($25 billion) [1] - CEO Ma Huateng emphasized that the company is increasing spending on new AI opportunities, including the Yuanbao application and AI integration in Weixin [1][2] - The operating leverage from existing high-quality revenue streams is expected to help absorb additional costs from AI investments, leading to healthy financial performance during this investment phase [2] Group 2: Market Position and Analyst Insights - Analysts from Citi described Tencent's earnings results as "stronger-than-expected," while Morgan Stanley noted that improvements in AI advertising technology could enhance Tencent's ad revenue growth compared to peers [2] - Tencent benefits from valuable user data from Weixin and WeChat, which had 1.4 billion monthly active users as of March [2] - Despite concerns over American tariffs affecting Chinese tech stocks, Tencent's revenue primarily comes from China, and its stock has risen 25% this year [3] Group 3: Broader AI Trends in Financial Services - The rise of large transaction models (LTMs) in generative AI is noted as a potential game-changer for security and efficiency in financial services [4] - Traditional machine learning models have been used by payment players and banks to enhance transaction processing, but their limitations are prompting a shift towards transformer-based models, which have shown transformative effects in natural language processing [5]

About this content About Emily Jarvie Emily began her career as a political journalist for Australian Community Media in Hobart, Tasmania. After she relocated to Toronto, Canada, she reported on business, legal, and scientific developments in the emerging psychedelics sector before joining Proactive in 2022. She brings a strong journalism background with her work featured in newspapers, magazines, and digital publications across Australia, Europe, and North America, including The Examiner, The Advocate, ...

Core Insights - Tencent reported an annual increase in both revenue and net profit for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong growth in its gaming sector [1] - Revenue exceeded market expectations, while net profit fell short of estimates [1] Financial Performance - Revenue reached 180.02 billion Chinese yuan ($25 billion), surpassing the expected 174.63 billion yuan [3] - Net profit was reported at 47.8 billion yuan, which was below the anticipated 52.2 billion yuan [3] - Year-on-year revenue growth was 13%, while net profit increased by 14% [1]

Group 1 - WizardLM, a Microsoft AI research group, has transitioned to Tencent's Hunyuan AI development organization, led by senior AI researcher Can Xu [1][2] - The newly released Hunyuan-TurboS 0416 model claims to outperform open AI models like Google's Gemma 3 series, according to co-founder Qingfeng Sun [2] - WizardLM previously released the WizardLM-2 models under Microsoft, which were pulled due to a lack of toxicity testing, highlighting a history of challenges in model releases [3][5] Group 2 - Tencent's Hunyuan team has been restructured, with increased spending on AI infrastructure, indicating a strong commitment to AI development [7] - Tencent reported an 8% year-over-year growth in Q1 2025, attributing this growth to its investments in AI [8] - The company plans to allocate approximately 90 billion yuan (around $12.49 billion) towards capital expenditures this year, primarily to support its AI initiatives [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 13, with earnings estimated at 88 cents per share, reflecting an 18.92% year-over-year growth, and revenues projected at $24.26 billion, indicating an 8.89% year-over-year increase [1]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Tencent has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.65% [2]. - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to reflect the impact of various ongoing initiatives across gaming, advertising, fintech, and AI infrastructure [3]. Group 2: Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming sector is expected to show continued momentum from Q4 2024, supported by popular titles such as Honor of Kings and contributions from new releases like DnF Mobile and Delta Force [4]. - All five of Tencent's highest-grossing games recorded year-over-year daily active user increases during the 2025 Spring Festival, indicating sustained user engagement [4]. - Deferred revenue, which grew by a high-teens percentage year-over-year in 2024, is expected to positively impact the top line for the quarter [4]. Group 3: Advertising Services - Marketing services revenues increased by 17% year-over-year in Q4 2024, driven by AI enhancements and strong demand from various sectors including e-commerce and healthcare [5]. - Video Accounts Marketing Services revenues grew over 60% year-over-year, while Weixin Search ad revenue more than doubled, suggesting continued advertising growth [5]. Group 4: FinTech Sector - In the fintech segment, commercial payment revenues were flat year-over-year in the previous quarter, with transaction volumes rising but average selling prices under pressure [6]. - This trend is expected to continue in Q1 2025, with improving consumer demand but ongoing supply-side pricing pressures [6]. Group 5: AI Development - The AI-native application Yuanbao saw a 20-fold increase in daily active users from February to March, although revenue impact in Q1 is expected to be limited due to GPU supply constraints [7]. - Tencent significantly increased its investment in AI development in Q4 2024, with a 21% year-over-year rise in R&D expenses and a 421% increase in capital expenditures [8]. - The company plans to further boost R&D spending and capital expenditures in 2025 to enhance AI infrastructure and model development [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HK$681, indicating an expected share price increase of 47.9% from the current price of HK$460.40 [2][7]. Core Insights - The 2025 Spark Game Conference showcased a total of 46 game titles, including 26 new games, which is a 35% increase from the previous year. Key titles such as HoK: World, Roco Kingdom, Valorant, and The Finals received significant attention from viewers [1]. - Tencent's strength in self-development and publishing capabilities was highlighted, with a diverse range of game genres presented from both domestic and global studios [1]. - The report emphasizes the positive user feedback and engagement during the conference, suggesting a constructive outlook for Tencent's gaming segment [1]. Summary by Sections Self-Development Games - Tencent presented 18 games from its in-house studios, including notable titles like HoK and CODM, which achieved over 1 billion downloads in 2024 [4][5]. Publishing Games - A total of 13 new licensed titles were showcased, including Path of Exile 2 and The Finals, indicating a robust pipeline for Tencent's publishing segment [5]. Investment Games - Eight games from Tencent's investees were highlighted, including Phantom Blade Zero and Dune: Awakening, showcasing Tencent's strategic investments in the gaming industry [6]. Valuation - The target price of HK$681 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, applying various price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios to different segments, including online games, advertising, social networks, fintech, and cloud services [7].

Core Insights - Pony.ai has partnered with Tencent Cloud to develop autonomous driving technology and deploy robotaxi services on Tencent's WeChat and other applications [1][2] - The collaboration will involve integration of Pony.ai's robotaxi services within WeChat and Tencent Maps, leveraging Tencent's extensive user base and cloud capabilities [2][3] - The partnership aims to enhance both companies' technological strengths, with Pony.ai focusing on autonomous driving and Tencent on cloud services and mapping [4] Company Developments - Pony.ai specializes in autonomous vehicle technology, particularly in robotaxis and robotrucks, and is listed on Nasdaq [1] - Tencent is recognized for its cloud services and has a monthly user base exceeding 1 billion for its WeChat app, which is considered a 'super app' [3] Strategic Implications - The partnership is seen as a "win-win" collaboration that will allow Pony.ai to scale up its operations while benefiting from Tencent's technological resources [2][4] - The integration of services is expected to provide users with the ability to call for robotaxi rides directly through the WeChat app in the near future [3]