腾讯控股 增持 我们认为进入 2026 年后腾讯投资主题是的"基本面加选择权"：核 心引擎（微信生态、广告和游戏）仍具韧性，且我们预计人工智 能叙事对股价方向的影响将大于盈利上调。腾讯历来对新平台转 型采取的是一种审慎的、集成为先的方法，我们认为其生成式 AI 的推出在可见模型展示和独立应用程序势头方面与一些同业相比 处于较早阶段，因为管理层在规模扩展之前似乎优先考虑了可靠 性、合规性和生态系统契合度。我们认为，这种定位导致该股股 价中"人工智能比重"偏低。如果腾讯在 2026 年展示出明确的执行 力和产品市场契合度，则有望创造上行选择空间。对于即将发布 的 2025 年 4 季度业绩，我们预计整体财务轨迹将基本保持在正常 轨道，主要争论焦点是宏观环境疲软是否会影响广告等周期性行 业。投资者的注意力应集中在关于人工智能的信号，因为它们能 够改变市场情绪和公司基本面：2026 年资本支出强度和节奏、 GPU/AI 芯片采购和供应可见性（包括国内供应和替代供应构成的 任何变化）、基础模型（尤其是多模态和推理）的质量和迭代节 奏的具体进展，以及最重要的是通过微信（搜索/信息流/小程序工 作流程）进行分销引领型变现的 ...

Core Insights - The Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (SCHE) offers lower costs and higher yields compared to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which has a longer history and greater tech exposure [1][4][10] Cost and Size Comparison - SCHE has an expense ratio of 0.07%, significantly lower than EEM's 0.72%, which could lead to compounded savings over time [3][4] - As of January 22, 2026, SCHE's one-year return is 28.4%, while EEM's is 37.9% [3] - SCHE has a dividend yield of 2.9%, higher than EEM's 2.2% [3][9] - SCHE has assets under management (AUM) of $12.0 billion, compared to EEM's $25.1 billion [3] Performance and Risk Comparison - Over the past five years, SCHE's maximum drawdown is -35.70%, while EEM's is -39.82% [5] - The growth of $1,000 invested over five years is $1,036 for SCHE and $1,044 for EEM [5] Holdings and Diversification - EEM tracks large- and mid-cap companies with a 30% tilt towards technology, while SCHE has a 22% tech exposure and holds over 2,100 stocks, making it more diversified by company count [6][7] - EEM's top holdings include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Tencent Holdings, and Samsung Electronics, which make up 21.5% of its assets [6] - SCHE's top holdings also feature Taiwan Semiconductor, Tencent, and Alibaba Group, comprising nearly 22% of its assets [7] Investment Implications - Both SCHE and EEM provide passive investment opportunities in emerging markets, holding over 1,000 stocks each [8] - The significant difference in expense ratios suggests that SCHE may be a more cost-effective option for investors seeking exposure to emerging markets [10]

Group 1 - Tencent Holdings presents an investment opportunity as one of China's leading tech giants at an attractive price point [1] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing developments in the tech sector, indicating potential for growth [1] Group 2 - The analyst has extensive experience in researching various industries, including technology and commodities, which supports the credibility of the insights provided [1] - The focus on value investing and the transition to a YouTube channel suggests a commitment to delivering in-depth analysis and research on companies [1]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings presents an investment opportunity as one of China's leading tech giants, with favorable pricing for potential investors [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Tencent Holdings is recognized as a powerful player in the technology sector in China [1] Group 2: Investment Perspective - The company is positioned to benefit from various market dynamics, making it an attractive option for value investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts Tencent Holdings (00700) to achieve a total revenue of RMB 193.7 billion in Q4, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 65.6 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin rising by 2 percentage points to 34% [1] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is projected at RMB 7.13 [1] Group 1 - The company has lowered its adjusted EPS forecast for 2026 by 1% while maintaining a target price of HKD 750 and an "Overweight" rating [1] - Tencent's core engines in the WeChat ecosystem, advertising, and gaming business remain resilient, with expectations that AI's impact on stock performance will surpass profit growth expectations [1] - Compared to peers, Tencent's generative AI initiatives are still in the early stages regarding model demonstration and independent application momentum, as management prioritizes reliability, compliance, and ecosystem fit over scale expansion [1] Group 2 - This positioning prevents the stock from being excessively "AI-premium," and if the company can demonstrate clear execution and product-market fit this year, it will create upward value [1] - For the upcoming Q4 2025 financial report, the overall financial trajectory is expected to remain on track, with the main concern being whether macroeconomic weakness will affect advertising and other cyclical businesses [1] - Investors should pay attention to AI signals that can simultaneously influence market sentiment and fundamentals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts Tencent Holdings (00700) to achieve a total revenue of RMB 193.7 billion in Q4, representing a 12% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 65.6 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin rising by 2 percentage points to 34%, and adjusted earnings per share projected at RMB 7.13 [1] Group 1 - The firm has lowered its adjusted earnings per share forecast for 2026 by 1% while maintaining a target price of HKD 750 and a rating of "Overweight" [1] - Tencent's core engines in the WeChat ecosystem, advertising, and gaming business remain resilient, with expectations that AI's impact on stock performance will surpass profit growth expectations [1] - Compared to peers, Tencent's generative AI initiatives are still in the early stages regarding model demonstration and independent application momentum, as management prioritizes reliability, compliance, and ecosystem fit over scale expansion [1] Group 2 - This positioning prevents the stock from being excessively "AI-premium," and if the company can demonstrate clear execution and product-market fit this year, it will create upward value [1] - Regarding Tencent's upcoming Q4 2025 financial report, the overall financial trajectory is expected to remain on track, with the main point of contention being whether macroeconomic weakness will affect advertising and other cyclical businesses [1] - Investors should pay attention to AI signals that can simultaneously influence market sentiment and fundamentals [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Tencent Holdings (00700) is expected to maintain steady revenue growth of 13% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, despite facing macroeconomic headwinds and advertising expenditure taxes [1] - The report highlights that Tencent will benefit from inventory release and AI empowerment [1] - Key catalysts for Tencent in the near to medium term include the launch of multiple flagship new games in 2026, continuous improvement in AI-driven advertising efficiency, and the rollout of AI-driven mini-program code development tools on WeChat [1] Group 2 - The brokerage maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent and keeps the target price unchanged at HKD 800 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Tencent Holdings (00700) is expected to maintain robust revenue growth of 13% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, despite facing macroeconomic headwinds and advertising expenditure taxes [1] - Key catalysts for Tencent in the near to medium term include the launch of multiple flagship new games in 2026, continuous improvement in AI-driven advertising efficiency, and the rollout of AI-driven mini-program code development tools on WeChat [1] - The rating remains "Buy" with a target price unchanged at HKD 800 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter of 2025 experienced a sharp 5% sell-off followed by a quick recovery, with global stocks reaching all-time highs, influenced by concerns over a potential AI bubble and subsequent strong earnings from NVIDIA [4][5]. Portfolio Performance & Attribution - The Polen Global Growth Composite Portfolio returned -2.5% gross of fees and -2.7% net of fees in Q4 2025, underperforming the MSCI All Country World Index, which returned +3.3% [7]. - Top relative contributors included Eli Lilly, Alphabet, and Shopify, while Oracle, Paycom Software, and CoStar Group were the largest detractors [7][8]. - Eli Lilly's stock rallied over 40% in Q4 due to strong financial results and a favorable agreement on drug pricing, despite earlier concerns [8]. - Oracle's performance reversed from the previous quarter, primarily due to skepticism regarding its future revenue tied to OpenAI, impacting its stock negatively [9]. Portfolio Activity - New positions were initiated in Tencent Holdings and Spotify, while positions in Sage Group, Willis Towers Watson, ICON Plc, and Workday were eliminated to fund these investments [10][11]. - Tencent has shown consistent earnings growth of over 30% annually for the past three years, and its valuation is considered reasonable for sustainable revenue growth [11]. - Spotify is viewed as a leading streaming network with significant growth potential, expecting over 20% annual free cash flow growth for the next five years [12]. Outlook - The datacenter capital expenditure cycle is expected to continue, driven by increasing demand and supportive government policies, suggesting a favorable environment for growth in revenues and earnings for key players [17]. - The portfolio is positioned to deliver above-average earnings growth, with a focus on sectors outside of the AI and datacenter themes, ensuring resilience regardless of market drivers [18].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings is expected to report Q4 2025 earnings with a revenue forecast of 194.6 billion yuan, representing a 13% year-on-year growth, driven by stable performance in online advertising, gaming, and financial technology sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Gaming Sector - The online gaming revenue is projected to reach 58 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, with strong performances from established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [2][5]. - The new game "Delta Action" is expected to perform well, with user acquisition efforts ramping up during the 2026 Spring Festival, potentially boosting revenue further [2][5]. - The overseas gaming market is anticipated to grow by 22% year-on-year, with titles like Supercell's "Clash Royale" and the AAA game "Dying Light: The Following" showing strong performance [2][5]. Group 2: Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach 41.3 billion yuan in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth, supported by stable growth in video accounts and the release of more advertising inventory [2][5]. - AI integration in advertising is projected to mitigate macroeconomic pressures, with significant reductions in operational tasks for advertisers, enhancing overall efficiency [2][5]. Group 3: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is forecasted to be 61.2 billion yuan, showing a 9% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by payment services [3][6]. - The introduction of AI applications and tools in WeChat mini-programs is expected to provide comprehensive support for developers, facilitating the rapid transformation of ideas into profitable products [3][6]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is increasing investments in AI talent and capabilities, with a long-term growth potential in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI Agent empowerment not fully reflected in current profit forecasts [3][6]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 260.1 billion, 296.1 billion, and 339.9 billion yuan, with slight downward adjustments of 1%-2% [3][6].