Core Insights - Tencent's MSCI ESG rating has been upgraded from BBB to A as of October 22, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The upgrade reflects an improvement in Tencent's environmental, social, and governance practices [1]

Core Insights - The third-party payment industry in 2025 is undergoing a significant transformation characterized by a "capital race," with major players like Tenpay and Douyin Pay increasing their registered capital significantly, while smaller institutions are exiting the market due to insufficient capital and business pressure [1][6] Capital Increase Trends - The payment industry has shown a clear trend of "leading by the head and tiered differentiation" in capital increases, with notable examples including the increase of registered capital for Wangyin Online to 1.5 billion RMB and other institutions like Yisheng Payment and Vipshop Payment also raising their capital [3][4] - Tencent's Tenpay has seen the most significant capital increase, from 1 billion RMB in April 2024 to 15.3 billion RMB in June 2025, maintaining its position as the industry leader in capital strength [3][4] Regulatory Impact - The implementation of the "Non-Bank Payment Institutions Supervision Management Regulations" has been a direct driver of the current capital increase wave, establishing a minimum registered capital requirement and linking net assets to reserve fund scales [4][7] - The capital scale is directly related to the business limits, reserve fund management costs, and customer trust, with increased capital enhancing risk resistance and laying the groundwork for future business expansion [5][7] Market Dynamics - The number of licensed payment institutions has decreased to 164, with 107 licenses revoked, primarily affecting smaller institutions that struggle to meet capital requirements [6][8] - The industry is shifting from a phase of scale expansion to one focused on capital and quality development, with larger institutions strengthening compliance and technology capabilities while smaller ones exit the market [6][8] Future Outlook - The ongoing capital increase trend is expected to continue, driven by internal growth needs and intensified competition in the third-party payment market, which will enhance overall capital strength and promote investment in market services and technology [8][9] - The industry is likely to see a restructuring where larger institutions leverage their capital advantages to transform into comprehensive financial technology service providers, while smaller institutions focus on niche markets to avoid homogenized competition [9]

2025年的第三方支付行业，正在持续一场"资本竞赛"的深刻改写。 一边是财付通、抖音支付、网银在线等头部机构动辄数亿甚至几十亿元的增资手笔，注册资本纪录不断 被刷新；另一边是福建一卡通、广东粤通宝等中小机构因业务承压、资本不足黯然退场，支付牌照注销 数量累计达到107张。 业内人士认为，在《非银行支付机构监督管理条例》（以下简称《条例》）实施深化的背景下，资本实 力已成为支付机构的"生存通行证"，行业马太效应持续加剧，新的竞争格局也正在加速成型。 王蓬博进一步称，资本金规模直接关联到支付机构的业务上限、备付金存管成本以及客户信任度，增资 既可提升其抗风险能力，也为未来可能的牌照续展、业务拓展打下基础。而引入专业背景更强的风控与 管理人才，则反映出其从粗放运营转向精细化风控和合规驱动的经营理念，有助于提升整体展业效率与 监管沟通能力。 素喜智研高级研究员苏筱芮表示，今年来，支付新规及其细则仍对行业产生了深远影响，根据新规相关 内容，多家支付机构纷纷开启增资举动，能够在强化公司治理的同时，更好地满足监管要求。增资行动 属于响应监管精神、深化落实合规工作的体现，同时也能够提升其资本金实力，从而为后续进一步巩固 支付 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，预计腾讯控股(00700)第三季收入同比增长13%，非国际财 务报告准则经营溢利升18%，游戏及广告业务具备潜在上升空间，其利润率或持续扩张。该行重申腾 讯"增持"评级，目标价700港元，续为首选股。大摩上调腾讯2025至27年的非国际财务报告准则经营溢 利预测1至2%，并料公司2025至27年资本开支为3,200亿元人民币。该行看好公司在所有业务范畴的稳 健增长，以及正面的营运杠杆、有限的竞争、资本管理和执行能力。 该信息由智通财经网提供 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts Tencent Holdings (00700) to achieve a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, with an 18% increase in non-IFRS operating profit, highlighting potential growth in gaming and advertising sectors, and suggesting that profit margins may continue to expand [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The firm maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tencent, setting a target price of HKD 700, continuing to position it as a preferred stock [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised its non-IFRS operating profit forecasts for Tencent for the years 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2% [1] - The expected capital expenditure for Tencent from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be RMB 320 billion [1] Group 2: Business Outlook - The firm is optimistic about Tencent's robust growth across all business segments, citing positive operating leverage, limited competition, and strong capital management and execution capabilities [1]

Tencent Holdings Ltd. 3Q25 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings Ltd. - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$749.87 billion - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$700.00 Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Forecasted to grow by 13% YoY - **Non-IFRS Operating Profit Growth**: Expected to increase by 18% YoY - **Capital Expenditure (Capex)**: Estimated at Rmb320 billion for 2025-27 Revenue Breakdown - **Value-Added Services (VAS)**: Revenue increased by 13% YoY, with online games growing by 18% - Domestic games: +13% - International games: +30% - **Marketing Services**: Revenue growth of 20% YoY, driven by AI ad-tech upgrades - **FinTech and Business Services (FBS)**: Revenue growth of 10%, with FinTech growing by 6% and Business Services by 22% [2][3][4][9] Core Insights - **Gaming Performance**: Strong performance from evergreen games and new launches, with Delta Force achieving record grossing during its anniversary event [2] - **AI Adoption**: Early AI adoption in marketing services is yielding high ROI, with improved click-through rates and user engagement [3] - **Cloud Services**: Despite prioritizing internal AI applications, demand for cloud services is expected to drive revenue growth, albeit at a slower pace compared to competitors [4] Financial Projections - **2025-27 Non-IFRS Operating Profit**: Increased by 1-2% due to higher revenues from games and marketing [5][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected to rise from Rmb20.63 in 2024 to Rmb30.70 by 2027 [7][19] Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Valuation Methodology**: Price target based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, with a DCF value of HK$612/share for core businesses and HK$88/share for associate investments [16][20] - **Investment Drivers**: Globalization of gaming, higher social ad monetization, and strategic upgrades in consumer and industrial Internet [27] - **Risks**: Competition in social networks and gaming, regulatory challenges, and potential impacts from US-China tensions [36] Additional Insights - **Market Position**: Tencent is positioned as a leader in China's online consumer market, with most services ranking in the top three by user base [27] - **Share Buybacks**: Recent buybacks are expected to support share price stability [28] - **Long-term Growth Potential**: Continued expansion in the Industrial Internet and AI applications is anticipated to drive future growth [35] Conclusion Tencent Holdings Ltd. is expected to maintain solid growth across all business segments, driven by strong performance in gaming, marketing, and cloud services. The company's strategic focus on AI and capital management positions it well for future opportunities, despite facing competitive and regulatory challenges. The current price target reflects a favorable outlook for investors.

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to report a revenue of 1,888 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% driven by strong performance in online advertising, gaming, and fintech sectors [1][6]. Group 1: Gaming Performance - The online gaming revenue is projected to reach 603 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16%. The success of "Delta Force" and stable growth from existing games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" contribute to this growth [1][2]. - "Delta Force" has achieved significant success in overseas markets, topping download charts in multiple regions [2]. - The introduction of user-generated content (UGC) features in "Peacekeeper Elite" has further enhanced user engagement, with daily active users surpassing 33 million [1]. Group 2: Advertising Services - Tencent's marketing services revenue is expected to be 357 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth. This growth is supported by the release of more advertising inventory and advancements in AI technology [3]. - The integration of AI in advertising has improved user targeting and ad matching, enhancing overall advertising effectiveness [3]. Group 3: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is anticipated to reach 584 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10%. The growth is primarily driven by payment services and the expansion of e-commerce commissions through WeChat [4]. - The "Fenfu" service has begun testing new features, indicating ongoing innovation in financial services [5]. Group 4: AI Integration - Tencent's AI initiatives are expanding across various sectors, including social media, content consumption, and life services, with the recent launch of the Hunyuan Image 3.0 model achieving top rankings among global models [5]. - The integration of AI is expected to enhance profitability in high-margin businesses, particularly in advertising [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 2,593 billion yuan, 2,979 billion yuan, and 3,374 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with a slight upward adjustment of 1% for each year [5]. - Tencent's ecosystem continues to leverage its user base and diverse scenarios, positioning it as a strong player in the AI era [5].

Group 1 - The core factors influencing the financial performance and valuation of Chinese internet-listed companies in the next 6 to 12 months include artificial intelligence, macro environment, competitive landscape, regulatory policies, shareholder return execution, and Sino-U.S. relations [1] - In the current volatile market environment, a relatively defensive asset allocation strategy is recommended, with a priority ranking for short-term investments as follows: Tencent Holdings (00700) > NetEase-S (09999) > JOYY (JOYY.US) > Tencent Music-SW (01698) [1] - Bilibili-W (09626) is also recommended due to its potential significant revenue and earnings upside from the game "Three Kingdoms: Ncard," expected to launch its first paid test on October 23, 2025, and officially release during the Lunar New Year in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Tencent is expected to report robust third-quarter results, with total revenue projected to grow by 14% year-on-year, driven by strong gaming and online advertising businesses, and adjusted operating profit reaching 73 billion RMB, a 20% increase [2] - The company is strengthening its core capabilities through focused and efficient operational execution, integrating artificial intelligence into its WeChat ecosystem, effectively addressing macro and systemic headwinds [2] - Alibaba's firm AI strategy is noted, with attention on the dynamics of its core e-commerce business during the Double Eleven shopping festival, as the cloud business is expected to accelerate growth in the quarter ending September [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][26]. Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of 1888 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The growth is driven by the release of advertising inventory and AI in the advertising sector, strong performance in gaming, and double-digit growth in the fintech business [4][8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the game "Delta Force," with expectations of continued growth in both domestic and overseas markets. The marketing services segment is also projected to grow rapidly, benefiting from AI enhancements and increased advertising opportunities [5][21]. - The fintech and enterprise services segment is expected to grow by 10%, primarily driven by payment services and the expansion of e-commerce commissions through WeChat [21][23]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - For Q3 2025, Tencent's total revenue is projected to be 1888 billion yuan, with a breakdown of: - Gaming revenue at 603 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year - Marketing services revenue at 357 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year - Fintech and enterprise services revenue at 584 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [4][5][21]. Profitability Metrics - Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to reach 735 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 667 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% growth. The Non-IFRS net profit margin is projected at 35.4% [4][8][29]. Business Segment Performance - **Gaming**: The gaming segment is expected to see a 16% increase in revenue, driven by the success of "Delta Force" and stable growth from existing titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [4][19]. - **Marketing Services**: The marketing services segment is anticipated to grow by 19%, supported by AI-driven enhancements and increased advertising opportunities across platforms like WeChat [5][16]. - **Fintech and Enterprise Services**: This segment is projected to grow by 10%, with significant contributions from payment services and the expansion of WeChat's e-commerce capabilities [21][23]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that Tencent has substantial long-term growth potential, particularly in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI integration, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts. The expected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 2593 billion yuan, 2979 billion yuan, and 3374 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight upward adjustment of 1% for each year [23][26].

Core Insights - Independent non-executive director Zhang Xiulan reduced her stake in Tencent Holdings (00700) by selling 3,358 shares at a price of HKD 633.405 per share, totaling approximately HKD 2.127 million [1] - Following the sale, her remaining shareholding is approximately 34,300 shares [1]