Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Chinese gaming and entertainment sector is expected to experience significant stock price increases, with mid to large-cap stocks rising by 50% to 80% by 2025, compared to a 26% increase in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [1] - The report attributes the anticipated price increase to a combination of valuation expansion and earnings per share growth, with a strong performance expected to continue into early 2026, where some stocks may rise by 30% compared to a 3-5% increase in related indices [1] - The report emphasizes that the future risk-reward profile remains attractive, leaning towards "alpha" driven opportunities, particularly favoring companies with new growth potential, such as those leveraging AI applications and accelerating overseas expansion [1] Group 2 - Chinese gaming publishers and content platforms, represented by Tencent Holdings and NetEase, are accelerating their overseas expansion, leveraging their capital, talent, and technological capabilities to increase their global market share from the current level of approximately 15% [2] - AI applications are seen as a disruptive force, reducing production and labor costs while enhancing efficiency and revenue potential, particularly in the gaming and advertising sectors, with expectations of a tenfold expansion in the total addressable market for AI-generated video tools by 2028 [2] - Core buy recommendations include Tencent, NetEase, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Tencent Music, with Tencent's core business (gaming and advertising) projected to maintain low to mid-double-digit growth annually, supported by evergreen games and its advertising ecosystem [2]

Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 195.4 billion yuan in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [1] - Value-added services are projected to generate 90.9 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 15% [1] - Within value-added services, the gaming sector is anticipated to reach 59.3 billion yuan, growing by 21% year-over-year, while social networking is expected to generate 31.6 billion yuan, up by 6% [1] - Online advertising revenue is forecasted at 40.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth [1] - Financial technology and enterprise services are expected to generate 61.9 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 10% [1] - The gross margin is projected to be 20%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-over-year, resulting in a gross profit of 108.7 billion yuan, up by 20% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be 70 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-over-year, with a non-IFRS net profit of 65.1 billion yuan, also up by 18% [1] Gaming Sector - Revenue from gaming is expected to grow by 21% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with domestic and overseas markets growing by 17% and 28% respectively [1] - Domestic evergreen games are performing steadily, with shooting games showing strong performance, particularly titles like "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile" contributing to revenue growth [1] - Several key new games are set to launch in Q1 2026, indicating strong future growth potential in the gaming sector [1] - Overseas, Supercell's "Clash Royale" continues to generate high revenue, and the AAA game "Dying Light: The Beast" is performing strongly, supporting sustained high growth in overseas gaming [1] Marketing Services - Revenue from marketing services is projected to grow by 16% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with the WeChat ecosystem advertising being the main growth driver [2] - The performance of video accounts and search ads remains strong, benefiting from enhanced advertising efficiency and conversion rates due to the synergy of content ecology and AI capabilities [2] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to grow by 10% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with stable payment business and double-digit growth in wealth management and micro-loan services [2] - Cloud business is anticipated to exceed 20% year-over-year growth, with WeChat's small store e-commerce technology service fees continuing to contribute to revenue [2] - Recent organizational adjustments in AI business aim to enhance the efficiency of large model development, with WeChat officially launching an AI mini-program developer growth plan [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is adjusting its profit expectations, forecasting revenues of 752.8 billion yuan, 847.5 billion yuan, and 931.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2] - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 260 billion yuan, 299.2 billion yuan, and 338.4 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding Non-IFRS EPS of 29, 33, and 37 yuan [2] - Based on the SOTP valuation method, the target market value for Tencent Holdings' various businesses in 2026 is set at 6.5 trillion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Operation" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The AI investment will primarily manifest in R&D expenses, projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming segment is projected to generate revenue of CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][15][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising efficiency [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, primarily driven by payment services [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 194.6 billion, with a 13% year-on-year increase. Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at CNY 68.1 billion, up 15% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [4][10][11] - The expected Non-IFRS net profit margin is 34% for Q4 2025 [10] Gaming Business - The gaming revenue forecast for Q4 2025 is CNY 58 billion, with an 18% year-on-year growth. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, while overseas game revenue is projected to increase by 22% [5][21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth. AI-driven enhancements are expected to improve advertising efficiency significantly [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, with a 9% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by payment services [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Action" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The R&D expenses related to AI are projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming revenue is projected to reach CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025 [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Tencent's Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be CNY 68.1 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year. The Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 34% [10][11] - The overall revenue for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 752 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [11][30] Gaming Sector - The gaming business is expected to generate CNY 58 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% [5][21] - Upcoming game releases, including "Delta Action" and "Future of Counterattack," are anticipated to enhance revenue streams [21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, with an 18% year-on-year increase. AI-driven advertising solutions are expected to improve operational efficiency for advertisers [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with expected revenue of CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025. The growth is primarily driven by payment services and the introduction of AI applications in WeChat mini-programs [20]

本文字数：2128，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 李隽 封图 |AI生成 腾讯控股（00700.HK）1月13日触及639港元的阶段性顶部之后，走出了连续五根阴线。1月19日跌幅超 过1%，一度跌破610港元大关。 从2025年10月2日触及683港元高点至今，腾讯走出了"一浪低于一浪"的走势：恒生指数4次突破27000 点，但腾讯三个重要顶部分别是683港元（2025年10月2日），662港元（2025年11月11日），639港元 （2026年1月13日），呈现出阶段性顶部不断向下的技术走势。 业内人士认为，2022年10月至今腾讯股价累计上涨超过两倍，长线表现优于多数科技股，近期资金锁定 利润并部分撤离，南下资金流入放缓，近几个月的走势弱于恒生指数，预计短期依然会震荡。长期来 看，公司基本面仍向好，人工智能业务持续推进，持续回购股份都向市场传递信心。 2026.01.19 1月18日国海证券分析师陈梦竹发布研究报告预计，腾讯控股2025年第四季度实现营业收入1954亿元， 同比增长13%，预计当季毛利率20%，同比提升3个百分点；毛利润1087亿元，同比增长20%；非国际会 计准则归属于母公司股东 ...

腾讯控股（00700.HK）1月13日触及639港元的阶段性顶部之后，走出了连续五根阴线。1月19日跌幅超 过1%，一度跌破610港元大关。 从2025年10月2日触及683港元高点至今，腾讯走出了"一浪低于一浪"的走势：恒生指数4次突破27000 点，但腾讯三个重要顶部分别是683港元（2025年10月2日），662港元（2025年11月11日），639港元 （2026年1月13日），呈现出阶段性顶部不断向下的技术走势。 业内人士认为，2022年10月至今腾讯股价累计上涨超过两倍，长线表现优于多数科技股，近期资金锁定 利润并部分撤离，南下资金流入放缓，近几个月的走势弱于恒生指数，预计短期依然会震荡。长期来 看，公司基本面仍向好，人工智能业务持续推进，持续回购股份都向市场传递信心。 回购步伐不止 根据媒体报道，在1月15日举行的2026微信公开课PRO活动上，腾讯披露多项备受市场关注的最新数 据：微信小程序在跨境及境外用户中的使用次数突破50亿次，覆盖范围扩展至全球100个国家和地区； 同时，2025年8月至12月，承载微信小店的"订单与卡包"访问数量增长132%，成交额增长320%。 1月15日，中金公司发 ...

Group 1: Core Drivers - Policy incentives are accelerating, with the central economic work conference emphasizing "technological innovation" and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promoting domestic AI chip procurement, establishing a 100 billion yuan industry fund, and aiming for a 70% localization rate of key equipment by 2025 [1] - Global liquidity is improving, as the central bank's 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut releases 1.2 trillion yuan in liquidity, alongside a reduction in long-term holding risk factors for insurance companies, releasing approximately 20 billion yuan in capital [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index constituents are showing strong performance, with companies like SMIC reporting a nearly 130% quarter-on-quarter net profit increase, and Li Auto's retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles exceeding 50% for the first time [1] Group 2: Tencent's Financial and Strategic Dynamics - Tencent's revenue for 2024 is projected at 660.3 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, with net profit expected to reach 194.07 billion yuan, reflecting a 68% growth [4] - The AI strategy is being upgraded with the MoE architecture for the Mix Yuan model, applied in over 700 scenarios, and a partnership with DeepSeek has driven the DAU of the Yuanbao App to 3.6 million [4] - Tencent's capital expenditure on AI is projected to be 76.7 billion yuan in 2024, a 221% increase, but efficiency improvements in GPU and cloud business returns are expected to cover costs, keeping profit margin pressures manageable [4] Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - Structural opportunities are emerging in sectors like technology, consumption, and pharmaceuticals, driven by policy and demand, particularly in the AI industry chain, new energy vehicles, and biomedicine [6] - The Hang Seng Tech Index's price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 23 times, significantly lower than that of the Nasdaq and ChiNext, indicating strong value [7] - Institutional earnings forecasts for the Hang Seng Tech Index are optimistic, with a projected 42.6% earnings growth rate by 2026, and Tencent's gaming business expected to grow by 10% in 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][28]. Core Insights - The core business remains robust, with a focus on the progress of WeChat AI [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1,954 billion RMB in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [7]. - The report highlights strong growth in gaming and advertising sectors, with AI continuing to empower the entire ecosystem [25]. Financial Performance Forecast 1. **Overall Performance**: - Expected revenue for Q4 2025 is 1,954 billion RMB (YoY +13%), with gross profit margin projected at 20% (YoY +3.0 percentage points) [7][10]. - Non-IFRS net profit is anticipated to be 651 billion RMB, also reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase [7][25]. 2. **Gaming Sector**: - Revenue from gaming is projected to grow by 21% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with domestic and overseas markets expected to grow by 17% and 28%, respectively [8][12]. - Key titles such as "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile" are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [11]. 3. **Advertising Services**: - Revenue from marketing services is expected to increase by 16% year-over-year in Q4 2025, driven by the WeChat ecosystem and strong performance in video and search ads [14][15]. - Video ads are projected to grow by over 40%, while search ads are expected to see a 50% increase [17]. 4. **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: - Revenue is expected to grow by 10% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with payment services showing steady growth and cloud services anticipated to exceed 20% growth [23][24]. Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts profitability expectations, forecasting revenues of 7,528 billion RMB, 8,475 billion RMB, and 9,315 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [25]. - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 2,600 billion RMB, 2,992 billion RMB, and 3,384 billion RMB for the same years [25]. - The target market capitalization for Tencent Holdings is set at 6.5 trillion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD [25][26].

Company Overview - Tencent's main businesses in gaming, advertising, finance, and enterprise services are expected to maintain high-quality growth, with AI accelerating talent deployment [1] Gaming Performance - Domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in Q4, supported by stable performance of established games like "Honor of Kings" and rising revenue from new titles like "Delta Action" [1] - Overseas gaming growth is expected to normalize with a 24% year-on-year increase in Q4, driven by high revenue from Supercell's "Clash Royale" [1] - For 2026, revenue growth is anticipated to be influenced by deferred income from high revenue in 2025 and upcoming titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Crossfire: Rainbow" [1] Advertising and Financial Services - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with healthy growth anticipated in 2026 due to deeper utilization of ecosystems like video accounts and mini-programs, as well as enhanced user engagement through AI [2] - Financial and enterprise services revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with financial services experiencing a potential slowdown in payment growth due to macroeconomic disturbances [2] - Enterprise services are expected to benefit from revenue growth in video account e-commerce technology services and cloud computing [2] AI Strategy and R&D Investment - Tencent's AI strategy is entering an accelerated phase, with significant R&D investments expected to continue growing [2] - The appointment of former OpenAI researcher Yao Shunyu as Chief AI Scientist and the release of the 2.0 version of the mixed Yuan model in December highlight the company's commitment to AI development [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 remain unchanged, while the 2026 revenue forecast has been slightly reduced by 1% to 831.7 billion yuan [2] - Non-IFRS profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1% to 262.9 billion yuan and 294.8 billion yuan, respectively, with new projections for 2027 set at 903.5 billion yuan in revenue and 326.9 billion yuan in profit [2] Rating and Target Price - The company maintains a "outperform" rating with a target price of 700 HKD, corresponding to 19x/17x 2026e/2027e Non-IFRS P/E, indicating an 11% upside from the current stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is "Buy" with a current price of 617.50 HKD and a fair value estimate of 744.46 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that advertising and gaming continue to show strong momentum, with significant investments in AI infrastructure [3][7]. - The forecast for Q4 2025 anticipates revenue of 1,947 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [7]. - The report projects that Tencent's revenue will reach 7,522 billion RMB in 2025 and 8,290 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 13.9% and 10.2% respectively [7][24]. Financial Projections - Revenue (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 6,090 - 2024A: 6,603 - 2025E: 7,522 - 2026E: 8,290 - 2027E: 8,973 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 9.8% - 2024A: 8.4% - 2025E: 13.9% - 2026E: 10.2% - 2027E: 8.2% [4]. - Adjusted Net Profit (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 1,577 - 2024A: 2,227 - 2025E: 2,564 - 2026E: 2,929 - 2027E: 3,235 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 36.4% - 2024A: 41.2% - 2025E: 15.1% - 2026E: 14.2% - 2027E: 10.5% [4]. Business Segment Performance - Gaming revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to reach 574 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [7]. - Social network revenue is projected at 324 billion RMB for Q4 2025, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be 421 billion RMB for Q4 2025, showing a 20% year-over-year growth [7]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the fair value of Tencent's core business at 6.35 trillion HKD, leading to a total fair value of 744.46 HKD per share [24][27].