本文字数：2128，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 李隽 封图 |AI生成 腾讯控股（00700.HK）1月13日触及639港元的阶段性顶部之后，走出了连续五根阴线。1月19日跌幅超 过1%，一度跌破610港元大关。 从2025年10月2日触及683港元高点至今，腾讯走出了"一浪低于一浪"的走势：恒生指数4次突破27000 点，但腾讯三个重要顶部分别是683港元（2025年10月2日），662港元（2025年11月11日），639港元 （2026年1月13日），呈现出阶段性顶部不断向下的技术走势。 业内人士认为，2022年10月至今腾讯股价累计上涨超过两倍，长线表现优于多数科技股，近期资金锁定 利润并部分撤离，南下资金流入放缓，近几个月的走势弱于恒生指数，预计短期依然会震荡。长期来 看，公司基本面仍向好，人工智能业务持续推进，持续回购股份都向市场传递信心。 2026.01.19 1月18日国海证券分析师陈梦竹发布研究报告预计，腾讯控股2025年第四季度实现营业收入1954亿元， 同比增长13%，预计当季毛利率20%，同比提升3个百分点；毛利润1087亿元，同比增长20%；非国际会 计准则归属于母公司股东 ...

腾讯控股（00700.HK）1月13日触及639港元的阶段性顶部之后，走出了连续五根阴线。1月19日跌幅超 过1%，一度跌破610港元大关。 从2025年10月2日触及683港元高点至今，腾讯走出了"一浪低于一浪"的走势：恒生指数4次突破27000 点，但腾讯三个重要顶部分别是683港元（2025年10月2日），662港元（2025年11月11日），639港元 （2026年1月13日），呈现出阶段性顶部不断向下的技术走势。 业内人士认为，2022年10月至今腾讯股价累计上涨超过两倍，长线表现优于多数科技股，近期资金锁定 利润并部分撤离，南下资金流入放缓，近几个月的走势弱于恒生指数，预计短期依然会震荡。长期来 看，公司基本面仍向好，人工智能业务持续推进，持续回购股份都向市场传递信心。 回购步伐不止 根据媒体报道，在1月15日举行的2026微信公开课PRO活动上，腾讯披露多项备受市场关注的最新数 据：微信小程序在跨境及境外用户中的使用次数突破50亿次，覆盖范围扩展至全球100个国家和地区； 同时，2025年8月至12月，承载微信小店的"订单与卡包"访问数量增长132%，成交额增长320%。 1月15日，中金公司发 ...

一、核心驱动因素：政策、流动性与行业共振 政策红利加速释放 全球流动性改善 中央经济工作会议将"科技创新"列为重点，工信部推动国产AI芯片采购（如华为、寒武纪纳入政府清单），设立1000亿元产业基金，并要求2025年关 键设备国产化率突破70%。 货币政策转向"适度宽松"，央行降准0.5个百分点释放1.2万亿元流动性，叠加金融监管总局下调保险公司长期持仓风险因子，释放约200亿资本，推动 增量资金入市。 港股通南向资金2025年初至今净流入超1.38万亿元，占比从47%提升至61%，科技板块成核心受益方向。 美联储降息周期启动，加拿大、欧央行降息预期增强，降低融资成本，提升港股估值修复空间。历史数据显示，美联储降息后A股与港股多呈上涨走 势，外资增配低配的H股，跑赢MSCI新兴市场指数。 行业与公司业绩强劲 恒生科技指数成分股：中芯国际二季度净利环比增近130%，理想汽车因新能源车零售渗透率首次超50%大涨超4%，技术硬件、媒体、零售业板块涨幅 居前，推动指数突破阻力位，交易量提升。 腾讯控股：2024年营收6603亿元，同比增长8%，净利润1940.73亿元，同比增长68%，日均盈利5.32亿元。游戏业务（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][28]. Core Insights - The core business remains robust, with a focus on the progress of WeChat AI [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1,954 billion RMB in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [7]. - The report highlights strong growth in gaming and advertising sectors, with AI continuing to empower the entire ecosystem [25]. Financial Performance Forecast 1. **Overall Performance**: - Expected revenue for Q4 2025 is 1,954 billion RMB (YoY +13%), with gross profit margin projected at 20% (YoY +3.0 percentage points) [7][10]. - Non-IFRS net profit is anticipated to be 651 billion RMB, also reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase [7][25]. 2. **Gaming Sector**: - Revenue from gaming is projected to grow by 21% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with domestic and overseas markets expected to grow by 17% and 28%, respectively [8][12]. - Key titles such as "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile" are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [11]. 3. **Advertising Services**: - Revenue from marketing services is expected to increase by 16% year-over-year in Q4 2025, driven by the WeChat ecosystem and strong performance in video and search ads [14][15]. - Video ads are projected to grow by over 40%, while search ads are expected to see a 50% increase [17]. 4. **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: - Revenue is expected to grow by 10% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with payment services showing steady growth and cloud services anticipated to exceed 20% growth [23][24]. Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts profitability expectations, forecasting revenues of 7,528 billion RMB, 8,475 billion RMB, and 9,315 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [25]. - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 2,600 billion RMB, 2,992 billion RMB, and 3,384 billion RMB for the same years [25]. - The target market capitalization for Tencent Holdings is set at 6.5 trillion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD [25][26].

Company Overview - Tencent's main businesses in gaming, advertising, finance, and enterprise services are expected to maintain high-quality growth, with AI accelerating talent deployment [1] Gaming Performance - Domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in Q4, supported by stable performance of established games like "Honor of Kings" and rising revenue from new titles like "Delta Action" [1] - Overseas gaming growth is expected to normalize with a 24% year-on-year increase in Q4, driven by high revenue from Supercell's "Clash Royale" [1] - For 2026, revenue growth is anticipated to be influenced by deferred income from high revenue in 2025 and upcoming titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Crossfire: Rainbow" [1] Advertising and Financial Services - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with healthy growth anticipated in 2026 due to deeper utilization of ecosystems like video accounts and mini-programs, as well as enhanced user engagement through AI [2] - Financial and enterprise services revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with financial services experiencing a potential slowdown in payment growth due to macroeconomic disturbances [2] - Enterprise services are expected to benefit from revenue growth in video account e-commerce technology services and cloud computing [2] AI Strategy and R&D Investment - Tencent's AI strategy is entering an accelerated phase, with significant R&D investments expected to continue growing [2] - The appointment of former OpenAI researcher Yao Shunyu as Chief AI Scientist and the release of the 2.0 version of the mixed Yuan model in December highlight the company's commitment to AI development [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 remain unchanged, while the 2026 revenue forecast has been slightly reduced by 1% to 831.7 billion yuan [2] - Non-IFRS profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1% to 262.9 billion yuan and 294.8 billion yuan, respectively, with new projections for 2027 set at 903.5 billion yuan in revenue and 326.9 billion yuan in profit [2] Rating and Target Price - The company maintains a "outperform" rating with a target price of 700 HKD, corresponding to 19x/17x 2026e/2027e Non-IFRS P/E, indicating an 11% upside from the current stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is "Buy" with a current price of 617.50 HKD and a fair value estimate of 744.46 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that advertising and gaming continue to show strong momentum, with significant investments in AI infrastructure [3][7]. - The forecast for Q4 2025 anticipates revenue of 1,947 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [7]. - The report projects that Tencent's revenue will reach 7,522 billion RMB in 2025 and 8,290 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 13.9% and 10.2% respectively [7][24]. Financial Projections - Revenue (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 6,090 - 2024A: 6,603 - 2025E: 7,522 - 2026E: 8,290 - 2027E: 8,973 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 9.8% - 2024A: 8.4% - 2025E: 13.9% - 2026E: 10.2% - 2027E: 8.2% [4]. - Adjusted Net Profit (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 1,577 - 2024A: 2,227 - 2025E: 2,564 - 2026E: 2,929 - 2027E: 3,235 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 36.4% - 2024A: 41.2% - 2025E: 15.1% - 2026E: 14.2% - 2027E: 10.5% [4]. Business Segment Performance - Gaming revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to reach 574 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [7]. - Social network revenue is projected at 324 billion RMB for Q4 2025, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be 421 billion RMB for Q4 2025, showing a 20% year-over-year growth [7]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the fair value of Tencent's core business at 6.35 trillion HKD, leading to a total fair value of 744.46 HKD per share [24][27].

今年以来该股累计进行10次回购，合计回购1020.50万股，累计回购金额63.58亿港元。（数据宝） 证券时报·数据宝统计，腾讯控股在港交所公告显示，1月15日以每股619.000港元至632.000港元的价格 回购101.70万股，回购金额达6.36亿港元。该股当日收盘价622.000港元，下跌1.74%，全天成交额 163.73亿港元。 自2025年11月18日以来公司已连续40日进行回购，合计回购4147.70万股，累计回购金额254.29亿港元。 其间该股累计下跌2.28%。 腾讯控股回购明细 | 日期 | 回购股数（万股） | 回购最高价（港元） | 回购最低价（港元） | 回购金额（万港元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026.01.15 | 101.70 | 632.000 | 619.000 | 63563.02 | | 2026.01.14 | 100.60 | 638.000 | 626.000 | 63596.46 | | 2026.01.13 | 101.20 | 638.000 | 623.000 | 63595.68 | | 2026. ...

证券时报 数据宝统计，腾讯控股在港交所公告显示，1月15日以每股619.000港元至632.000港元的价格 回购101.70万股，回购金额达6.36亿港元。该股当日收盘价622.000港元，下跌1.74%，全天成交额 163.73亿港元。 自2025年11月18日以来公司已连续40日进行回购，合计回购4147.70万股，累计回购金额254.29亿港元。 其间该股累计下跌2.28%。 腾讯控股回购明细 | 日期 | 回购股数（万股） | 回购最高价（港元） | 回购最低价（港元） | 回购金额（万港元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026.01.15 | 101.70 | 632.000 | 619.000 | 63563.02 | | 2026.01.14 | 100.60 | 638.000 | 626.000 | 63596.46 | | 2026.01.13 | 101.20 | 638.000 | 623.000 | 63595.68 | | 2026.01.12 | 102.40 | 627.000 | 614.000 | 63568.82 | | 2 ...

格隆汇1月15日丨腾讯控股(00700.HK)发布公告，2026年1月15日耗资6.36亿港元回购101.7万股，回购价 格每股619-632港元。 ...

腾讯控股(00700)发布公告，于2026年1月15日该公司斥资6.36亿港元回购101.7万股，回购价格为每股 619-632港元。 ...