智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，尽管面临宏观逆风及广告支出税的影响，腾讯控股(00700)第 四季度营收增长仍将保持稳健，达同比13%，持续受惠于库存释放及AI赋能。该行认为，腾讯近至中期 的催化因素将包括：1)2026年多款旗舰新游戏的推出; 2)AI驱动的广告投放效率持续改善; 3)微信上由AI 驱动的小程序代码开发工具上线。维持"买入"评级，目标价保持800港元不变。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Tencent Holdings (00700) is expected to maintain robust revenue growth of 13% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, despite facing macroeconomic headwinds and advertising expenditure taxes [1] - Key catalysts for Tencent in the near to medium term include the launch of multiple flagship new games in 2026, continuous improvement in AI-driven advertising efficiency, and the rollout of AI-driven mini-program code development tools on WeChat [1] - The rating remains "Buy" with a target price unchanged at HKD 800 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter of 2025 experienced a sharp 5% sell-off followed by a quick recovery, with global stocks reaching all-time highs, influenced by concerns over a potential AI bubble and subsequent strong earnings from NVIDIA [4][5]. Portfolio Performance & Attribution - The Polen Global Growth Composite Portfolio returned -2.5% gross of fees and -2.7% net of fees in Q4 2025, underperforming the MSCI All Country World Index, which returned +3.3% [7]. - Top relative contributors included Eli Lilly, Alphabet, and Shopify, while Oracle, Paycom Software, and CoStar Group were the largest detractors [7][8]. - Eli Lilly's stock rallied over 40% in Q4 due to strong financial results and a favorable agreement on drug pricing, despite earlier concerns [8]. - Oracle's performance reversed from the previous quarter, primarily due to skepticism regarding its future revenue tied to OpenAI, impacting its stock negatively [9]. Portfolio Activity - New positions were initiated in Tencent Holdings and Spotify, while positions in Sage Group, Willis Towers Watson, ICON Plc, and Workday were eliminated to fund these investments [10][11]. - Tencent has shown consistent earnings growth of over 30% annually for the past three years, and its valuation is considered reasonable for sustainable revenue growth [11]. - Spotify is viewed as a leading streaming network with significant growth potential, expecting over 20% annual free cash flow growth for the next five years [12]. Outlook - The datacenter capital expenditure cycle is expected to continue, driven by increasing demand and supportive government policies, suggesting a favorable environment for growth in revenues and earnings for key players [17]. - The portfolio is positioned to deliver above-average earnings growth, with a focus on sectors outside of the AI and datacenter themes, ensuring resilience regardless of market drivers [18].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings is expected to report Q4 2025 earnings with a revenue forecast of 194.6 billion yuan, representing a 13% year-on-year growth, driven by stable performance in online advertising, gaming, and financial technology sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Gaming Sector - The online gaming revenue is projected to reach 58 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, with strong performances from established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [2][5]. - The new game "Delta Action" is expected to perform well, with user acquisition efforts ramping up during the 2026 Spring Festival, potentially boosting revenue further [2][5]. - The overseas gaming market is anticipated to grow by 22% year-on-year, with titles like Supercell's "Clash Royale" and the AAA game "Dying Light: The Following" showing strong performance [2][5]. Group 2: Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach 41.3 billion yuan in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth, supported by stable growth in video accounts and the release of more advertising inventory [2][5]. - AI integration in advertising is projected to mitigate macroeconomic pressures, with significant reductions in operational tasks for advertisers, enhancing overall efficiency [2][5]. Group 3: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is forecasted to be 61.2 billion yuan, showing a 9% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by payment services [3][6]. - The introduction of AI applications and tools in WeChat mini-programs is expected to provide comprehensive support for developers, facilitating the rapid transformation of ideas into profitable products [3][6]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is increasing investments in AI talent and capabilities, with a long-term growth potential in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI Agent empowerment not fully reflected in current profit forecasts [3][6]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 260.1 billion, 296.1 billion, and 339.9 billion yuan, with slight downward adjustments of 1%-2% [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by 16% to 643 billion [1] Group 1: Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% year-on-year in Q4, with a sequential slowdown due to the longer deferral period of "Delta" and no new game launches in the domestic market [2] - "Counter-Strike: Future" has launched on both platforms, reaching over 10 million players shortly after its release, with expected first-year revenue between 35-70 billion [2] - Key upcoming projects for 2026 include "Rock Kingdom: World" in March and "Honor of Kings World" in spring, along with several other titles [2] Group 2: Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue is anticipated to grow by 9% year-on-year in Q4, primarily due to a slowdown in social retail growth [3] - AI mini-programs are expected to enhance e-commerce, transportation, and local life scenarios, with significant growth in token usage and paid penetration rates anticipated in 2026 [3] - In 2025, the monetization scale of AI application mini-programs increased by 108%, with eCPM rising by 75% [3] Group 3: Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year in Q4, driven by increased budgets from long-tail advertisers and efficiency improvements from AI [4] - WeChat is gradually evolving towards a shelf-like e-commerce model, introducing social relationship-based product recommendations and exploring differentiated social e-commerce features [4] - In 2025, the GPM of WeChat mini-stores increased to 1.5 times compared to 2024, with a 70% year-on-year growth in the average number of active merchants [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been adjusted downwards by 0.5% to 0.8% for 2025-2027, primarily due to changes in gaming revenue deferral predictions [5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts have been revised down by 0.9% to 0.5% to 263.1 billion, 299.4 billion, and 342.5 billion respectively, mainly due to increased AI investment costs [5] - The target price for Tencent is set at 792 HKD, corresponding to a 21.6 times PE valuation for 2026 [5]

大和重新审视腾讯上季表现的预测，预期集团的国内游戏业务将因季节性因素及高基数效应而放缓，而 国际游戏业务在第三季异常强劲后表现趋于平稳，另招聘AI人才与GPU租赁成本将对营运开支构成上 行压力。 智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，由于腾讯控股(00700)上季整体收入表现疲弱，下调集团期内游戏 收入预测，料上季本地游戏业务收入为373亿元人民币，同比增长12%，按季则跌13%。该行下调腾讯 2026至2027年每股盈测1至2%，重申其"买入"评级，但将目标价由750港元下调至725港元。 ...

大和发布研报称，由于腾讯控股(00700)上季整体收入表现疲弱，下调集团期内游戏收入预测，料上季 本地游戏业务收入为373亿元人民币，同比增长12%，按季则跌13%。该行下调腾讯2026至2027年每股 盈测1至2%，重申其"买入"评级，但将目标价由750港元下调至725港元。 大和重新审视腾讯上季表现的预测，预期集团的国内游戏业务将因季节性因素及高基数效应而放缓，而 国际游戏业务在第三季异常强劲后表现趋于平稳，另招聘AI人才与GPU租赁成本将对营运开支构成上 行压力。 ...

（原标题：南向资金今日净买入36.63亿港元，腾讯控股净买入6.63亿港元） 1月20日恒生指数下跌0.29%，南向资金全天合计成交金额为972.83亿港元，其中，买入成交504.73亿港元，卖出成交468.10亿港元，合计净买入金 额36.63亿港元。具体来看，港股通（深）累计成交金额378.04亿港元，买入成交190.11亿港元，卖出成交187.93亿港元，合计净买入金额2.18亿港 元；港股通（沪）累计成交金额594.79亿港元，买入成交314.62亿港元，卖出成交280.18亿港元，合计净买入金额34.44亿港元。 成交活跃股方面，今日上榜个股中，南向资金成交金额最多的是腾讯控股，合计成交额63.88亿港元，阿里巴巴-W、小米集团-W成交额紧随其 后，分别成交48.94亿港元、46.53亿港元。以净买卖金额统计，净买入的个股共有8只，腾讯控股净买入额为6.63亿港元，净买入金额居首，该股 收盘股价下跌1.48%，美团-W净买入额为5.73亿港元，小米集团-W净买入额为3.95亿港元。净卖出金额最多的是中芯国际，净卖出7.18亿港元，该 股收盘股价下跌3.25%，中国移动、洛阳钼业遭净卖出6.37亿港元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 792 HKD [6][5][28] Core Insights - Tencent's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit projected to increase by 16% to 643 billion RMB [1] - Key growth drivers include the launch of multiple new games, improved advertising efficiency through AI, and enhanced support for AI mini-programs on WeChat [1][3][4] - The gaming segment is anticipated to see a 16% increase in revenue, while advertising revenue is expected to rise by 20% [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue for Q4 is projected to grow by 16%, with the new game "Counter-Strike: Future" expected to generate 35-70 billion RMB in its first year [2][12] - The game fills a gap in Tencent's PVE shooting game offerings and has already achieved over 10 million players shortly after launch [2][12][16] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue is expected to grow by 9%, driven by a slowdown in social retail growth [3] - AI mini-programs are anticipated to enhance e-commerce and local services, with significant growth expected in 2026 [3][19] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue is projected to increase by 20%, driven by budget increases from long-tail advertisers and efficiency improvements from AI [4] - WeChat's advertising capabilities are evolving, with new features aimed at enhancing social commerce [4][19] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been slightly adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profit estimates also revised [5][24] - The target price of 792 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 21.6 for 2026, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [5][28][30]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that the Chinese gaming and entertainment sector experienced significant stock price increases in 2025, with large and mid-cap stocks rising by 50% to 80% compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index's 26% [1] - The report indicates that the strong performance is driven equally by valuation expansion and earnings per share growth [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the firm believes the risk-reward profile remains attractive, with a focus on "alpha" driven opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Chinese gaming publishers and content platforms, represented by Tencent Holdings and NetEase, are accelerating their overseas expansion, leveraging capital, talent, and technological capabilities [2] - The global market share of Chinese game manufacturers is expected to increase from the current level of approximately 15% [2] Group 2: AI Impact - AI is seen as a transformative force, reducing production and labor costs while enhancing efficiency and revenue potential, particularly in gaming and advertising sectors [2] - The total addressable market (TAM) for AI-generated film tools is projected to expand tenfold by 2028 [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs identifies key buy stocks including Tencent, NetEase, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Tencent Music, with Tencent's core business expected to maintain low to mid-double-digit growth annually [2] - The firm maintains a "buy" rating on Tencent, lowering the target price from HKD 770 to HKD 752 [2]