证券研究报告 | 2025年07月15日 国信互联网观点： 预计二季度收入增长 12%，经调整归母净利润增长 13%。预计二季度网络广告持续收益广告库存释放和 AI； 游戏业务长青游戏表现良好；金融科技业务环比略有恢复。具体来看： ①游戏方面，长青游戏表现良好。25Q2，我们预计公司网络游戏业务收入为 560 亿元，同比增长 15%。预 计国内游戏收入同比增长 16%。老游戏基本盘稳固增长，次新游戏逐步长青，《三角洲行动》流水持续攀 升，4 月 DAU 峰值突破 1200 万。海外延续较好增长，预计同比增长 14%，4 月下旬腾讯《三角洲行动》正 式推出海外版《Delta Force》，并获得了海外多个市场下载榜冠军。 ②广告方面，维持快速增长。2025Q2，我们预计腾讯网络广告收入为 352 亿元，同比增长 18%。腾讯广告 在宏观下整体稳健，并且视频号等流量稳健增长，陆续开放更多广告。腾讯运用 AI 提升用户画像精准度， 并加强用户匹配。广告技术提升（AI、CPU 转 GPU 等）也继续驱动腾讯广告增长。 ③金融科技及企业服务，收入侧略有加速。25Q2，我们预计金融科技及企业服务收入为 545 亿元，同比 ...

港股科网股午后持续走高，阿里巴巴涨超6.8%，美团、快手均涨近4%，腾讯控股、百度均涨超3%。 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong tech stocks showed strong performance in the afternoon session, with Bilibili (09626.HK) rising over 7% [1] - Alibaba (09988.HK) increased by more than 6.8% [1] - Tencent Music (01698.HK) saw a rise of over 5% [1] Group 2 - Meituan (03690.HK) and Kuaishou (01024.HK) both experienced nearly 4% gains [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK), JD Health (06618.HK), and Baidu (09888.HK) all rose by more than 3% [1]

July 13, 2025 10:00 PM GMT Tencent Holdings Ltd. | Asia Pacific 2Q25 Preview: Solid Revenue and Earnings Growth | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Tencent Holdings Ltd. (0700.HK) | From | To | | Price Target | HK$630.00 | HK$650.00 | We see 2Q revenue and non-IFRS OP rising 11% and 14%, respectively, with solid games and ads growth, while FBS growth sees slight recovery. We expect narrower OP leverage driven by AI investment, but margins should continue to expand. Reiterate Top Pick, best 2C AI ap ...

智通财经APP获悉，近日，七麦数据发布了2025年6月热门游戏排行榜，其中包括热门游戏下载榜Top30和热门游戏收入榜Top30。热门游戏下载榜方面， 腾讯(00700)旗下"三角洲行动"延续上月实力继续稳居Top1，老牌手游"王者荣耀"占据Top3位置。而友谊时光旗下新游"暴吵萌厨"强势跻身Top2。热门游戏 收入榜中，腾讯旗下"王者荣耀""和平精英"分别占据Top1、Top2，点点互动旗下"无尽冬日"强势登榜，占据Top3。 | 排名 | -00 | 开发商 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 三角洲行动 | 腾讯 | | | 2 | 暴吵萌厨 | 友谊时光 | new | | 3 | 王者荣耀 | 勝讯 | V1 | | 4 | 和平精英 | 膨讯 | V 1 | | 5 | 永远的蔚蓝星球 | 诗悦网络 | new | | 6 | 超自然行动组 | 巨人网络 | ▲ 16 | | | 开心消消乐 | 乐元茶 | V2 | | | 蒸云十六声 | 网易 | | | 9 | 蛋仔派对 | 网易 | | | 10 | 金铲穿之战 | 股票 | V3 | | IT | ...

传媒 2025 年 07 月 13 日 腾讯控股 (00700) ——25Q2 前瞻：延续高质量增长，关注 AI、游戏新品进 展 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 事件： ⚫ 我们预计腾讯 25Q2 实现营业收入 1783 亿元，同比增长 11%；调整后归母净利润 602 亿 元，同比增长 5%。 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 6,090 | 6,603 | 7,311 | 7,955 | 8,465 | | 同比增长率（%） | 9.8 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 6.4 | | 调整后归母净利润（亿元） | 1,577 | 2,227 | 2,507 | 2,813 | 3,093 | | 同比增长率（%） | 36.4 | 41.2 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 10.0 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 16.68 | 24.03 | 27.35 | 30.69 | 33.74 | | 净资产收益率（%） ...

騰訊控股(00700)近期走勢呈現震盪格局，最新報價504港元，上漲1.69%，從技術面來看，股價目前站穩10日均線(501.95港元)上方，但受制於30日均線 (506.87港元)壓力，60日均線(499.95港元)則提供重要支撐。RSI指標47顯示中性偏弱，MACD和保力加通道發出賣出信號，但移動平均線卻呈現買入信號， 這種技術指標的矛盾讓短期走勢充滿變數。 關鍵位分析 下方支撐位重點關注488港元(支撐1)，若跌破可能下探471港元(支撐2)；上方阻力位則看519港元(阻力1)，突破後有望挑戰536港元(阻力2)。雖然上升概率達 56%，但5日振幅僅2.2%，顯示市場觀望情緒濃厚。 認購證選擇上，中銀認購證(29579)值得重點關注，行使價560.5港元，提供14.5倍槓桿，其溢價最低且引伸波幅理想，成本效益出色。追求更高槓桿的投資 者可考慮中銀認購證(13873)，行使價563.5港元，槓桿達17.2倍。認沽證方面，中銀認沽證(17569)和瑞銀認沽證(16669)分別提供14.3倍和16倍槓桿，行使價 設在447.8港元和443.13港元，其中中銀認沽證的引伸波幅最低，風險控制更佳。 牛熊證產品精選 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed slight declines, but biotechnology stocks performed strongly, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) gaining over 28% year-to-date [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:06, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) rose by 0.10%, with notable individual stock performances including Sunny Optical Technology up over 6%, BYD Electronics up over 5%, and Lion Group Holding up over 4% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) has seen a net inflow of 270 million yuan over the last five trading days, with a total net inflow of 545 million yuan over the past three months and 686 million yuan year-to-date [1] Group 2: Share Buybacks - On July 9, 37 Hong Kong-listed companies, including Tencent Holdings, conducted share buybacks totaling 49.01 million shares and 1.129 billion HKD [1] - Tencent Holdings repurchased shares worth 500 million HKD on the same day, bringing its total buyback amount for the year to 39.543 billion HKD [1] - WuXi Biologics also repurchased shares worth 298 million HKD, with a year-to-date total of 1.708 billion HKD [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - China Galaxy Securities noted that global macro risks are rising, impacting market risk appetite, but the absolute valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains relatively low, indicating medium to long-term investment value [1] - Guoyuan Hong Kong expects potential policy measures to support Hong Kong stock valuations in the second half of the year amid weakening economic momentum due to tariff impacts [1] Group 4: ETF Composition - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology RMB Index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of July 9, 2025, including Xiaomi Group-W, Tencent Holdings, BYD Company, Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, SMIC, Kuaishou-W, Li Auto-W, Innovent Biologics, and Xpeng Motors-W, collectively accounting for 68.47% of the index [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape between Feishu and DingTalk, particularly focusing on their recent AI product launches and market strategies. Feishu introduced several new features, including a multi-dimensional spreadsheet, while DingTalk announced its own AI spreadsheet product. Both companies are targeting different customer segments and have experienced organizational changes in 2024 [1][9]. Product Launches - Feishu launched a multi-dimensional spreadsheet that will be available on DingTalk and WeChat Work platforms, indicating a strategy of openness and collaboration [1][3]. - DingTalk's new AI spreadsheet allows each cell to serve as an AI entry point, integrating document functionalities into data tables [5]. - Feishu's multi-dimensional spreadsheet is expected to reach 10 million monthly active users, with a single table capacity of 10 million rows, a tenfold increase from 2024 [5][6]. Market Positioning - Feishu targets knowledge-intensive enterprises, while DingTalk focuses on sales and manufacturing sectors, leading to different product development strategies [6][8]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a significant market share held by DingTalk and WeChat Work, which together are projected to capture 75% of the collaborative office market by 2025 [8]. AI Application Levels - Feishu categorized its AI applications into four levels, from concept validation to fully mature applications, with the "Knowledge Q&A" feature classified as M3 and the "Smart Meeting Minutes" as M4 [6][7]. - This classification aims to set customer expectations and reduce anxiety regarding AI product capabilities [6][8]. Financial Performance - Feishu projected an ARR of over $300 million for 2024, with a previous ARR of $10 million in 2022, reflecting a 2.7 times growth from 2021 [9]. - DingTalk reported an ARR of $200 million for the first half of its 2025 fiscal year and aims for breakeven in 2025 [9]. - WeChat Work expressed confidence in achieving profitability before its competitors in 2024, highlighting the ongoing competition among these platforms [9].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings (00700) is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 500 HKD mark, with the latest price at 503.5 HKD, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2%. The stock is at a critical turning point, with the 10-day moving average (505.48 HKD) and 30-day moving average (507.83 HKD) acting as resistance, while the 60-day moving average (497.11 HKD) provides support. The divergence in technical indicators, with MACD showing a sell signal and momentum oscillators indicating a buy signal, warrants close attention from investors [1]. Technical Analysis - The first support level is at 487 HKD, and the second support level is at 470 HKD, which are crucial for assessing short-term trends. On the upside, 518 HKD is a recent rebound high, and a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of the 535 HKD level. The stock's 5-day volatility is only 3.1%, indicating a relatively low volatility environment, which may suggest an impending directional choice [3]. - The market sentiment is currently neutral, as indicated by the bull-bear strength indicator. The RSI at 50 shows that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving ample room for future price movements. Although moving averages signal a strong sell, the stock has begun to recover some averages, and if it can maintain above 505 HKD in the coming days, it may reverse the short-term bearish trend [7]. Trading Strategy - In the current technical environment, short-term investors are advised to adopt a range trading strategy within the 487-518 HKD range. Conservative investors may wait for clear breakout signals; a volume-driven breakthrough above 518 HKD could be a signal to follow the trend, while a drop below 487 HKD would warrant caution for further downside risks. Given the low volatility, investors using derivative instruments should be particularly mindful of time decay [8]. Derivative Product Recommendations - For call options, the Bank of China call option 29579 offers a stable choice with a leverage of 14.5 times and an exercise price of 560.5 HKD, featuring the lowest premium and implied volatility among peers, effectively reducing holding costs. The Bank of China call option 13873 provides a higher leverage of 16.6 times with an exercise price of 563.5 HKD, suitable for investors expecting a rapid breakthrough. Both products are moderately out-of-the-money (approximately 11-12%) and are ideal for balancing risk and return [9]. - For bull certificates, UBS bull certificates 68481 and 68650 have redemption prices set at 477.2 HKD and 474 HKD, respectively, maintaining a safety margin of about 5-6% from the current price, offering leverage of 15.5 times and 14 times. These products are suitable for gradual accumulation when Tencent retraces to the 487 HKD support level. For bearish strategies, UBS bear certificate 61324 and Societe Generale bear certificate 60438 have redemption prices between 520-522 HKD, providing nearly 30 times leverage but with high risk, suitable only for experienced short-term traders with strict stop-loss measures [11][12].